"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


Thursday, March 31, 2011

Monthly Gold Charts - March 2011

Gold scored an all time high record monthly close!

Gold has now pushed solidly past the 75% Fibonacci retracement level from the 1979 high to the 2001 low in inflation adjusted terms. Note - that this chart uses the government's CPI number which is utterly useless but at least can serve as a type of benchmark against which to compare the current gold price in real terms.


  1. "the government's CPI number which is utterly useless"

    No truer words ever spoken.

  2. dan,

    i wanted to run this scenario by you because i was thinking this might become a total train wreck. assume the fed is backed into a corner and starts raising rates...i'm presuming that this would be fatal to the current gold / silver bull run (as well as the current equity "rally")as everyone rushed to liquidate a dollar-based carry trade. am i right in my assessment? what do you think? i'm just trying to game out potential scenarios that are bearish to the metals in order to manage my risk exposure accordingly (i'm long silver, but not yet in size).

    as always, thank you very much for your time and effort on the blog. it's the first place i go to in the morning (well...after zero hedge. ;)

    beeba :)

  3. "in real terms"?

    more like "(kinda, sorta, but not really) in real terms".

    Dan, I know this is asking too much, but I'll put it out there. I'd love to see the same chart, but using shadowstats cpi figures.

    Last time I read, the shadowstats cpi would have the all time gold price between the seven thousand to eight thousand mark, in order to match the 80's high.

    I wonder what the fibonacci on that chart would look like. I'm just guessing, but the current price probably wouldn't even be a 23.6% level on such a chart, or maybe between that and 38.2%?

    Just wondering out loud.


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