"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


Wednesday, May 22, 2013

US Dollar - back to being King

It appears as if the globe is convinced that any economic recovery is going to begin here in the US first. It certainly is not going to be Europe that is leading the way. Data from China continues mixed while Japan is gaining traction at the expense of their currency. That leaves many investors from abroad looking to put their risk capital to work in the US equity markets. That is creating strong demand for Dollars with which to buy boatloads of US equities.

You can see the effects of this in the dollar chart. Note this is a weekly chart I am using. As it now stands, the Dollar is on track to make its SECOND and a CONSECUTIVE WEEKLY CLOSE above key resistance at last year's high just above 84.40 or so.

It has already cleared the important 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire sell off from the double top back in 2010. The last barrier from a Fibonacci retracement theory level it has to face is just above 85 at 85.05. That ties in rather nicely with the upper tine of the pitchfork. If that does not stop the upward march of the Dollar, odds will favor it completely retracing the entire downmove from 2010 and eventually reaching all the way to 89.

With weakness across the Yen, the Euro and the Aussie and Canadian Dollars, not to mention the Swiss Franc and the British Pound, it is difficult to see why the US Dollar will not make it through the 85 level.

If this does occur, it is going to more than likely bring about additional selling pressure across the commodity sector in general and that means we could very well see more hedge fund shorting activity into silver and gold. It will be up to the physical markets to therefore absorb the paper selling to prevent those recent lows from being retested yet again.

One of the other reasons that the US Dollar is rising in my view is the fact that interest rates are rising here in the US. In an environment starved for yield, you are going to get some of that money that wants to hold bonds moving to where it can obtain the highest yield or at least where it can invest where the interest rate trajectory is higher and not lower as is the case in the Eurozone.

Long Term Interest Rates grinding Higher

Keep an eye on the yield on the Ten Year Treasury Note. It is back above the key 2% level once again. The rate peaked for this year about 2 months ago in mid March before moving lower. At that time it was a tad above 2.05%. Rates have moved 40 basis points higher in a month's time. That is quite rapid.

I find today's movement a bit peculiar to be honest because it came against the backdrop of an equity market that had first made a new all-time high before reversing lower later in the session. One becomes accustomed to seeing money flows out of bonds and into stocks and therefore, when stocks are being sold off and bonds also are being sold off simultaneously, it is a bit out of the norm.

Let's see where this thing goes tomorrow and the remainder of the week.

Incidentally, I wrote up some comments on today's price action for Eric King over at King World News. Check in there to find them a bit later this evening.