"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


Monday, October 3, 2011

S&P 500 once again nearing 1100

As you can see on the following chart, other than the day on which it made a spike low and pushed sharply off the break below the 1100 level, the S&P 500 has not since managed to move back below this critical level. Each time it has threatened to do so, it has been resuscitated ( I believe thanks in part to the Exchange Stabilization Fund folks).

Today it has pushed below that 1100 level briefly but has popped up. How this thing closes today is going to be interesting. If the ESF rushes back in and props it up and prevents a CLOSE below this level, it will likely bounce, even if the bounce is small because techicians will point to the stability above the support level and how that is being reinforced. If it fails, no technician of any sound judgment is going to be able to make a bullish chart argument and the market is going to head lower first towards 1050 and possibly towards 1000 if that fails to hold.

Gold probing upside resistance

Gold is garnering strength from overnight news that Greece looks to miss its debt reduction target. This is causing further fears about the well-being of Europe in general and is bringing in selling across the global equity markets.

What is noteworthy about gold in today's session is that it is making this move towards overhead chart resistance with the Dollar knocking on the door of the 80 level on the USDX. The European currencies, the Euro, Swiss Franc and British Pound are all under pressure today as are the commodity currencies. The result - gold is moving higher in terms of all the major foreign currencies, even the Yen, which is garnering its usual mindless safe haven bid.

Euro gold seems to be finding willing buyers down near the 1200 level.

As far as the technical chart picture for gold in US Dollar terms: Note the downtrending price channel delineated in red on the chart. Gold is now challenging the lower side of this channel after having dropped out of it recently. That is a very encouraging development. Also, that lower channel trendline meets up with horizontal resistance coming in near the $1660 level. That is what makes this level signficant. If gold can hold its gains here, it should be able to push back towards the formidable $1680 level. Above that we get $1700 back in play.

Asian buyers stocking up ahead of the festival season are no doubt keenly watching these developments. If they think that the hedge funds are going to come back in and take prices higher, they will buy at current levels ahead of them. If they believe that the mindless managers will dump more gold, they will take their chances and step back and let price come to their buy orders.

It is also not hurting gold to see the HUI continue rebounding further away from the 520 level, especially witnessing the selling hitting the broader S&P 500. That level thus far is holding like a rock on downside probes. The longer it holds, the more short covering we are going to see on the part of frustrated bears. Evidently, buyers see value in the shares at those levels. This index needs to clear 550 on a closing basis to rattle some of the fresh shorts whose short covering should then take the index towards resistance near 570.