"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Silver on the Ropes

Silver Bulls had better flex any muscles they might have very quickly as the Bears are out growling and seem quite determined to go a stop huntin'.

The rectangular area shaded and marked support is an important inflexion point for the metal. If it does not bounce from this region and head back up again, in effect reinforcing its range trade, odds will favor a continuation lower to $20 and possibly down to $19.

The 50 day moving average is resuming its downward trend after having leveled off back in late August. It should now serve as an overhead cap to price on any rebound higher unless there is a solid, discernible change in the fundamentals and more important, in sentiment, towards the precious metals.

Gold has also lost an important level of chart support in today's session. This level, $1280, was very important as the price has tended, since August, to uncover some decent buying down here. In the middle of October, it did fall below this point, but its stay down there was only a couple of days in a row at best. If gold can recover in Asia this evening or by Thursday of this week, it will have dodged a bullet. If not, look for the next key support level to come under a test. If the Dollar takes out 81.50 on the USDX, gold is going lower.

Long Term Monthly Gold Chart

Can you see the significance of the 1280 region? It is the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level of the entire rally from the secondary low made back in April 2001 and the peak above $1900 made in September 2011. On the monthly chart, the price fell below that level reaching 1180 (1179 to be exact) but it did not see any downside followthrough the next month as it immediately rebounded eventually pushing back above $1400 before failing once again.

Now it is back to testing that level and though it is early in the month of November still, if gold closes out this month below that level, December will be a critical test of the resolve of the bulls. Failure to stay above $1280 on a month ending basis on TWO CONSECUTIVE MONTHS, would increase the likelihood of another test of that spike low near $1180. Were that to fail, the next critical target for gold would be near the 50% retracement of the entire decade long bull market in gold ( 2001- 2011).

That would probably represent a good area for longer term oriented players to begin buying as you are talking about prices below the cost of production for many gold mining companies.

I am not predicting a move to this area as of now, I am merely setting up some possible scenarios IF PRICE PERFORMS AS I MENTIONED ABOVE. Remember, we are trying to listen to the voice of the market only and tuning out anything else. That is the only way to ultimately be successful as a trader/investor.

One thing that this chart also shows us is that in order for the bulls to turn this chart to their advantage, they MUST take price at a bare minimum back above the $1400 level and hold it there.

Much of this will depend on market expectations in regards to the overall inflation picture. Today, crude oil is falling sharply again having neared $93. If it fails to secure a foothold near this level, steeper losses are ahead. It is most difficult, if not impossible, to make an argument for inflation if energy prices are sinking.

On the food side of the ledger, soybeans are moving higher and have been since that USDA report last week but that is coming mainly on the heels of reported sales to China. China is notorious for booking sales but then cancelling those sales later if prices drop so beans need some more time to see how the demand is going to hold up at these higher levels. Corn appears to have found a short-term interim bottom but it is difficult for me to get bullish on corn when a record crop is still coming our way. Much depends on the S. American growing season. If it continues to get off to a good start, both corn and beans should stop moving higher sooner rather than later. I am monitoring both charts to get a sense of these all important foods, not to mention wheat, which also has stabilized. That however seems to me to be more a function of spillover buying from the corn and bean markets than any outright bullish wheat fundamentals.

Stay tuned...