"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


Monday, August 20, 2012

Stealth Mode Rally in Silver Maybe not so Stealthy Anymore

I remarked last week that silver had been slyly working its way higher in very quiet fashion but was knocking on the door of overhead resistance. Today it broke that resistance and so far is doing it in convincing fashion.

Based purely on technical factors, it should try to make a run at $29 where heavier supply awaits. That stands between it and a handle of "30" which will most certainly catch the attention of the momentum crowd.

Take a look at the shorter term moving averages (not labelled). These are the 10 day and 20 day respectively. Notice that late last week BOTH MOVING AVERAGES crossed above the longer term 50 day moving average. This has not been the case since the middle of March of this year! Also notice that both of those are now trending in an upward direction as they pick up the upward shift in momentum.

You will also see the heavier blue line which is the 100 day moving average. That comes in near 28.83, a bit below horizontal resistance near the 29 level. Expect a battle beginning at that level and extending up to $29. This is one of the reasons I expect to see a fairly large amount of supply hit the market near this point. If the silver bulls can eat through and absorb that selling, it will mark a decided shift in sentiment towards the metal.

Downside support lies first near $28 and is staggered at 50 cents intervals below there down to $27.

I should note that this is occuring against a backdrop of a higher CCI (Continuous Commodity Index) which is beginning to move closer to the top of its recent trading range. Note also that this top of the recent trading range happens to correspond EXACTLY with a criticial Fibonacci Retracement level, namely the 61.8% near 566.

If the CCI can clear 570 with gusto, Silver will see an increase in buying.