As noted in yesterday's comments, making too much of moves in ANY market at this time of the year is the height of folly. There is simply too much year end book squaring taking place in incredibly thin trading conditions to put any credence in price moves except in those markets with the absolute strongest of fundamentals.
Please be aware that I am limiting comments mainly because it is a waste of time for any trader to attempt to ascertain any future price movements from the action in this last trading week. As goofy as today's moves have been, tomorrow's are liable to be even worse!
There are huge air pockets above and below every market that is trading right now with so many large players out of the markets until next Monday that anyone who has a hankering to try their hand at market manipulation ( pushing prices around merely to run stops ) is going to give it a try to see if they can pull it off.
Some are trying to make a big deal out of the situation in Greece but frankly that it a tempest in the proverbial tea pot in my view. Greece's problem is Greece's problem. It is not Spain's or Germany's or France's. Sure, any election that puts another left wing group in charge will foul things up for Greece's financing package but that is something that is limited to that country. Any government that might end up being elected is going to soon get a lesson in reality and that there is a huge difference between electioneering slogans and dealing with real world finance issues.
What you are seeing is an exaggeration of price movements due to the lack of liquidity at this time of the year. It is especially tragic that we do get something like the Greece thing this week and not next week. The reaction would likely be much more subdued.
For now, short term technical will dominate the markets. As mentioned yesterday, traders should have lightened up by now or have gotten flat. Watching hustlers run your stops and screw with your positions is never fun so after a while you learn to deprive them of their toys. Personally I have nothing but contempt for the parasites and ticks that make their livings this time of the year by raping the public. Sadly, the exchanges will never do the right thing and just shut down the markets for the last week of the year because they are too greedy trying to collect more trading fees.
As mentioned previously, look at the weekly and monthly charts and those will provide the perspective one needs to keep from being confused and frustrated by the meaningless and random price movements that we are currently seeing.
Early next week the full complement of traders will be returning and then we can put some credence into the moves we get at that time.
For now, this is the time for the worst of the worst in this industry to make themselves manifest.
"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat
Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput
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Tuesday, December 30, 2014
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