"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


Thursday, October 9, 2014

Two Charts

The charts speak for themselves...


  1. In the department of "do the opposite of what I do". Bought a hubris a couple months ago.

    I the department of "I got lucky" caught most of the swing in DUST today.

    In the department of " what will tomorrow bring?" NUGT maybe? Wait and see.

    1. I thought 'hubris' was good!

    2. Mike Ehlert:

      Mike - please send us a list of recommendations so that we can all fade you! :o)

      Seriously, some days the elevator - some days the shaft!

      Hang in there buddy....

  2. We can add the DAX, the leading german indice.
    It completed the ETE and broke the neckline around 8950/9000.
    Theoretically, this is very bearish unless we have a very quick reversal (bear trap).
    Usually in this configuration, if there is a pullback towards the neckline, many bears will enter the market (speaking under Dan's control) and once the neckline is validated as a resistance, the show can go on towards 8000.

    SP500 also broke seriously its upwards channel at 1950.
    For me, and despite the bloody FOMC declarations, the final target maybe around 1740, the bottom of the other main upwards channel (see my previous charts). The path may not be straight. As the time unit used to see this channel is at least 1 week candles, we can still see a pullback towards 1950 in the coming weeks, maybe above it and towards 2000. But, following my "book", we are headed towards 1740 sooner rather than later. We'll see.

    Ebola can create a panick much higher than ISIS in the markets imho.
    Imagine an Ebola widespread epidemy in Europe.
    This is more violent on the economy than a local war in Ukraine or a border village in Syria.
    And the news is that European countries are total morons :
    1) France who is waiting 3 "terrorists" in a wrong plane at the wrong airport in Paris. loool! They land free in Marseille...go through all the police controls, and finally call the police to surrender...go to a police station, which is emply, and wait for police car to get them after they asked"where are you". Do I trust French authorities to protect me from Ebola? hahahaha!
    2) Spain. Already 74 suspect cases now because of the initial nurse. Guess what? The doctor who was in contact with her took off his suit 11 times during the first day near her, as he didn't get the test results yet. He got the test results via the newspapers!!, because noone called him to give him results. Not to worry, the initial suit was not a real fully protective one, so he took the real suit and realized it was too short. So he didn't put the hands and ams part, and stayed like that, arms exposed at her contact. You want me to trust Spain to protect me from Ebola? My god, with such total idiotic people now populating this planet, I'm wondering how the stock markets are not down rather 6% every day by now. Must be the Fed indeed.

    1. HDH
      Thanks for the info in the Keystone Cops aspects. That's what I don't accept the happy talk comming out of CDC and the rest of the usual suspects.

      Sorely temped to get short S and P but waiting.

      Also considering reduction of my long term positions. May lock in some profits.

    2. I'm very angry with myself on SP500.
      Totally fucked up my short position, while I was expecting SP500 to stall in the 2000 area.
      1) tried to optimize the entry point to tight, like an idiot, in order to be nearest the resistance and "gain" a few dollars --> result = I never had a chance to get in the market, my short order was at 2020+ and I think the top was 3 points lower only.

      2) chased the market later on, and wiped out by the saloon doors : I shorted last week under 1245 during the first drop towards 1926, but of course was stopped out on the way up, as I was targetting around 1900 to get out of my position. We never made it there. Worse is I didn't get out of my whole position immediately, but gave a chance for 50% short until we reached 1260+. Nice :(

      3) I shorted once more very lately pre FOMC lol at 1950, again on the breach of the long term upwards support, and once again, wiped out by the nice FOMC announcement at my entry level. Never had a chance to short again because I can't watch the market intraday anymore, so with huge ups and downs within hours, I'm blind.

      Conclusion : trying to optimize entry points made me miss the whole move. Not being live realtime in those crazy markets gave me no time to react or opportunity to quickly get in/out. As a result, I missed the entire down move though I was anticipating it exactly at the 2000 area, and I even lost some money on that one, if I add several small losses for being stopped out plus commissions. A terrible result for a globally correct analysis. Still very frustrating.

    3. I feel for you HDH. Similar situation here. Got lucky yesterday. Not tempting fate today.

    4. Hubert;

      Another day in the life of a trader my friend... Sigh - if it were easy, everyone would be doing it and would be trading from an island in the S. Pacific filled with beauties like our fake Nidhi Jain...

    5. Thanks Dan :)

      Nidhi, wait for me, someday I'll be good enough for you lol.

    6. Hubert, sorry for your losses but you need to check your systems when too much volatility out there. In a such environment, day traders make home runs

    7. My systems are fine Linh, the error was human all the time.

      1) at the top, too tight, could add up to my short position because I was trying to grab a few points.

      2) at the first bounce, and despite some signals when we were at 1950 (japanese candles showing a hammer and a bullish candle, bullish configuration, plus my own system saying the impulsion up was only beginning, I chose to ignore those signals to short the SP500 in order to make sure I'd be in the train...lol, huge mistake, and I was stopped out above, the mistake is all mine).

      3) then I shorted again before FOMC and my stop at entry level was imho justified. Here I'm only pissed off because I can't monitor anything as I used to since I started my new job... :) so I couldn't react at all when the markets reversed and plunged...I simply was not there.

      So for 1) and 2) I am angry with myself, not the markets, because I made some beginner's blunder (as Dan says, the market is always here to remind you humility) being too tight then being kind of greedy shorting too early. Boom, payback immediately.
      For 3), I'm pissed off because I was not there...and yes I have the proof that I can't trade like I used to now that I'm working full time somewhere else...let's say it of course will affect my results because I will miss a lot of moves which I could monitor and react to before.

      Anyway you are right, I should have reduced my position before the bloody FOMC. Believe it or not, I didn't even know it was taking place. I'm underwater with this new job, but that's my problem, not the market's or my system's fault :)

  3. your can see all recommendation on mobile by Epic Research  and check all market update.

    1. Wanna come for a drink at my place late evening and we'll have a llok at your recommendations?
      Damn, robots don't have dates.

  4. ES a nice +11 pop off the low 1911.25. ES reached -5% correction there, usually the SPX will follow.

    London Silver Fix USD 17.26 (Prev. 17.64)
    ---a typical friday

    most of the blurbs are 'can't buy commodities while stock mkt is tanking'

    Russian wheat exports reach 463 million bushels in first 8 months of year, up from 231 million previous year.

    GSCI is too overweight in energy, that's why we hate it! hahaha

    eur/usd under the nov 2012 low of 1.2662, on a friday.. congrats to Dan who days ago said the DX strength and commodity weakness would resume!



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