"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Gold - 8 Hour chart update - general comments

Rollovers are continuing in gold with traders moving out of the April as it enters its delivery period and into the June. Some are also moving into August and December. Open interest continues to decline as end of the month and quarter pressures continue but the bulk of that should be over today.

How this market behaves Friday and Monday of next week will be a better indicator of what we can expect in the immediate near term. Trying to get too much of a read on a market that is being jostled by book squaring and low volume is generally not wise.

High oil inventories at Cushing were being blamed somewhat for gold's weakness today but I do not agree with that reasoning. Oil is still above $100, high inventories or not, and a mere blip lower in crude oil is not going to dissuade those who are focused on increasing price pressures throughout the economy. Besides, even though crude was weaker today, unleaded gasoline is higher and it is gasoline prices that more directly impact consumer perceptions of inflation anyway. 

The Dollar is experiencing two-way money flows today but for whatever the reason, it has been stopped dead in its tracks near 76.70 on the USDX chart. It has been drawing a bit of recent strength from the verbal intervention campaign being engaged by several FOMC governors who are talking hawkishly about ending QE. One went as far as saying that the last $100 billion of the scheduled $600 billion might not be necessary. That was enough to pull the rug out from under the bond market yesterday so it is hard to believe that we will see too much more of that sort of talk if the Fed wishes to keep bond speculators from blasting the long bond into the nether regions and sending rates higher in the process.

As stated many times here already: If they attempt to talk the Dollar up by sounding hawkish, they will send the long bond into the toilet. If they try to talk the long bond back up again by expressing reservations about the strength of the US recovery, they will send the Dollar into the toilet. Pick your poison is a good motto at this point.


  1. Maybe these fed guys should just keep their mouths shut and save us the time of reading and hearing their dribble.

  2. Completely agree Dan! If we see many more of these hawkish Fed gov speeches rates will be at 6% and we'll be back in an "official" recession.

  3. Hi Dan. Just wanted to post a note of thanks for these wonderful daily updates. Seriously I consider your blog and your segment on the weekly KWN Metals Wrap podcast extremely vital to me as a trader and is helping me provide for my family. So THANK YOU!

    BTW I'm writing to you from Asia. Just to let you know the reach extent of your analysis notes.


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