"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


Monday, November 10, 2014

USDA World Production for Soybeans

here are the numbers we are currently working with compliments of the USDA:

In million metric tons.
                         --2014/2015-                  --2013/2014--                   Nov 14/15   Nov 14/15
                              Nov     Oct                  Nov     Oct                       Oct 14/15   Nov 13/14
World                  312.06  311.20             285.01  285.01                       0.86      27.05
United States       107.73  106.87              91.39   91.39                         0.86      16.34
Total Foreign       204.33  204.33              193.62  193.62                      0.00      10.71
South America
Brazil                     94.00   94.00                86.70   86.70                        0.00       7.30
Argentina               55.00   55.00                54.00   54.00                        0.00       1.00
Paraguay                 8.20    8.20                    8.10    8.10                         0.00       0.10
Bolivia                    2.50    2.50                     2.40    2.40                        0.00       0.10
Uruguay                  3.40    3.40                     3.50    3.50                        0.00      -0.10
East Asia
China                     11.80   11.80                  12.20   12.20                       0.00      -0.40
Korea South              0.13    0.13                   0.15    0.15                        0.00      -0.02
Korea North              0.17    0.17                   0.16    0.16                        0.00       0.01
Japan                          0.21    0.21                  0.20    0.20                        0.00       0.01

The thing that really stands out to me is the size of the increase of global supply for the 2014-2015 marketing year compared to last year. What is even more interesting is that Brazil had a huge crop last year and this year the USDA is projecting it to be even larger. Barring any sort of serious weather related issues down there for their growing season, there is not going to be any shortage of beans anytime soon.

None of this however has seemed to faze the hedge funds which have been buying beans like they are going out of style of late. It is also apparently, at least for the immediate moment, lost on China, which has been sucking up beans from here in the US like an oversized vacuum cleaner.

We'll now see with these numbers, if the cancellations from China begin in earnest or whether they will play some more with the US markets.


  1. I see the DXY broke 88 twice last night on further Yen weakness.

  2. CME to raise #Soybean meal margin requirements 25%, effective at close of business today.

    open interest: #corn +7,111 #soybeans +2,106 #wheat -10,989 #soymeal +3,329 #soyoil -3,718

    cuing up j giels for today: freeze-frame'
    ..as the jr clerks manning the desks are told to keep it where it is!

    i was in college and got a high lottery number so missed vietnam...

    thanks veterans!!!!!!!

  3. Here's a piece by Bron that will raise some hackles out there...
    11 November 2014

    "If gold in a forest is withdrawn by a wholesaler and no one is around to buy it, does it make the price move? "


  4. Lord, how I love that article...... !

  5. Never before in history have we witnessed such a glorious financial "nirvana".

    Pretty much everything is going in the right direction for the consumer:

    - Soaring stock prices
    - Easy credit
    - Collapsing commodity prices
    - Improving jobs market
    - Goldilocks GDP growth

    I don't recall any other period in history where the economy is set up for a boom of epic proportions which could last 3 - 5 years.

    And what did Gerald Celente say while puffing on his cigar, lecturing on his YouTube presentation?

    Anyone going to a Q & A session?

    Anyone heard from Jim Willie now that Morgan Stanley is now closing in on $36/share?


    1. It does seem Jim Willie was wrong regarding the implosion of MS. However, maybe there was some truth to the matter. They may have been in trouble and found a way out. Regardless, they are a shady bunch since they were sued a few years ago for charging storage fees for precious metals that never existed.

    2. Here's some classic Jim Willie nonsense in 2011 approx. 3 months after that May's memorable silver massacre.
      And nobody ever calls him or others out on how wrong or misleading he was.

      Who in good conscience can promote that type of sensationalist snake oil?

      Wednesday, August 3, 2011

      "Jim Willie: Gold and Silver Short Covering Has Begun, Silver to Pass $50 Before October"

      Jim Willie is back with a scathing attack on the debt ceiling hike, big predictions for gold and silver, and a prediction that Italy's default will cause the breakup of the EU in the next 2 years.

      As always, a Must Read.

      The Gold market correctly interpreted the vacant gutless debt pact, a deal to make a future deal, a decision to make future decisions. The Gold price rose on Tuesday by $40 and the Silver price rose the same day by $1.50 per ounce. The damage is more hidden than what is seen in nominal price.
      The short covering process has begun.
      The defended $1600 barrier has been breached, smashed, and overrun.
      Those who recklessly placed their short positions at that level did not anticipate the power of this bull market, or recognize the strong attack from all four flanks.
      The $40 barrier is also being overrun. Gold will continue to fight the political battles, to bust the cartel phalanx, and to enable the harsh light of truth to shine on the wrecked USDollar and ponzi ridden USTreasury Bond.
      Silver will continue to run impressive breath-taking strides through the opened pathways. Expect a run past the $50 mark within the next two months, likely sooner"....(cont.)


  6. Interesting article on the GLD etf and its implications to the Asian market.


  7. It's seems that more times than not, whenever the Comex is closed gold is up. Also, more times than not, the moment early evening trading starts, 6pm EST, gold is down. These are just observations, no conspiracy implied.

  8. Blimey! No wonder the price of Gold is persistently moving down, if all the daily upswings need to be compressed into a 45 minute window!


  9. guess that's why Dan doesn't mention the widow making NatGas, as it just went from 4.55 to 4.15 with yest gap up and outside reversal down, continue down today....buy the rumor sell the news perhaps- weather has hit no doubt.

    GLD just shot thru 112 round number as GC is +20 from low o day... holdings in GLD made a new low of move yest. down some 1.79 tons.
    ...paulson we'll get to see what his holdings were at end of 3Q 45 days later...
    none of the big GLD holders have 10% anymore, so we don't get timely notice of their moves.

    so anybody talking denting on the corn from this weather, and false dormancy outa wheat... harvest is stalled on that final 20% of corn.


Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.