"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


Friday, May 30, 2014

Silver Loses $19 Level; Gold Has Few Friends

I will come back to silver later on in these comments but for now want to discuss the gold chart and price action.

Today, the Chicago PMI numbers came out with a reading of 65.5 versus the April reading of 63.0. What was picked up by market players was the NEW ORDERS index which rose to 70.2 from its 68.7 reading in April Traders and investors are reading this as further evidence that economic growth, while not roaring higher, is undergoing a type of grinding improvement.

One can argue that case but the fact is that the market is choosing to view this recent rash of economic data in a friendly manner and wants to be bullish. That is why the Q1 GDP was sloughed off - traders blamed it on the severely cold and record breaking winter. I should note here that if the Q2 number does not come in much better, blaming the weather is not going to be a viable excuse!

Regardless, as one watches the long bond moving higher of late, and that TIPS spread which I detailed a couple of days ago, it is evident that as far as the broad market is concerned, inflation is not an issue. With traders/investors convinced that is so, and with no reason, in their mind, for the Fed to delay any further reductions in their bond buying program, gold is finally losing many more of its friends.

The stubborn bullishness that remains among so many speculators based on the Commitment of Traders reports IN SPITE OF what has clearly been a slowly deteriorating chart pattern, might finally be giving way to reality. Unfortunately for us, when we  get the release of the this week's COT data it will not show us what has happened to these specs since Wednesday. Gold has fallen another $20 since that time. It did lose $1280 early in the week so the report should pick up some long side liquidation as that was a very significant technical chart level.

Keep in mind that the last time I commented on that report, every major category of speculative interests was still net long. That means a very large number of those positions are deeply underwater ( especially those who chased the price higher based on Ukraine ) and are now either being met with margin calls or being forced to liquidate their losing long positions.

In looking over the chart, you can see that all three support levels noted, beginning first near $1280 and extending lower, have completely given way. Even the psychological support at the $1250 level could not hold the market. The next level of chart support surfaces near the $1240 level and extends down to $1232 or so. If that gives way, $1220 is next.

For bulls to be able to have a chance at improving this chart, they would have to take price ABOVE $1280 and keep it there at a bare minimum. That might be a tall order because based on the breach of that level and how significant it was from a TA perspective, sellers are going to be lurking there.

The ADX is rising once again but remains below 20. Combine that with the rising -DMI and it tells us that the bears are in firm control of the market for the time being. Speculators are not yet aggressively playing gold from the short side but with this steady, grinding move lower, many of those who are long are growing disillusioned and getting out. This sort of "disgusted selling" tends to have a snowball effect however so we will want to keep a close eye on how this market acts as it nears each respective support level. Failure to manage even a bounce would augur for sharper losses. We will just have to wait and see.

I would need to see the ADX get at least above 25 and continue rising to indicate that a strongly trending move lower is underway. For now, while the short term is decidedly negative, the market continues to GRIND LOWER. If gold cannot manage a bounce away from $1200 for any reason, it is quite possible that we see a move all the way back to that double bottom at $1180.

It is not gold just in Dollar terms that is looking lousy on the charts, it is also Eurogold ( Gold priced in Euros) as well. Take a look at the chart.

Notice how today's move broke it down below its level of chart support near the 920 region. Next support is near 910. If that does not stop the bleeding, it could fall below its round number psychological support at the 900 level.

Compounding gold's woes today is more weakness in the mining shares. The GDXJ has surrendered its mediocre gains from yesterday while the HUI has fallen to a fresh 4 1/2 month low.

GLD, the big gold ETF has not shown any chances in its reported gold holdings since that big jump the other day so I am especially curious to see what is going to be coming out of there when they get a fresh number up for us. That was the one saving grace that I could see for this gold market. If that goes, then that support will have gone the way with the miners. Hopefully they will have some data for us later on today after the close.

Moving over to silver - it finally cratered through that critical support level at $19. Markets that continue to flirt with resistance or support levels are generally going to go through them.

Here is the silver chart.

As you can see, the support level that has held it all the way back to late January was broken in a big way today. It fell through $19 yesterday but manage to squeak back above it but the sharp fall in gold, combined with another drop in the copper price, was too much for the grey metal to withstand. It is now decidedly down for the year. I have included a line showing where this metal closed at the end of 2103 for your reference point.

Silver is now sitting right at the bottom of the next support zone noted. If it cannot recover from here and climb back firmly above $19 in a hurry, odds favor the metal moving down towards $18.30 - $18.20.

One quick comment - I generally receive lots of gold/silver "analysis" in emails that many readers send my way asking for comments. I generally do not answer them because of time constraints hoping that the readers can glean an understanding of what my view might be at any given time based on how I am seeing the price charts. However, I do want to take a bit of time to comment on these perma-gold / perma-silver bull websites and advisory services, who somehow manage to constantly beguile their unsuspecting readers with one bullish "SPIN" after another when referencing the COT reports.

Just the other day I had one pop into my inbox telling the readers that the potential for a good strong short squeeze exists in silver because the swap dealers are long and the specs are moving to the short side. I read this sort of claptrap and shake my head in bewilderment that some people actually pay for this junk or read it with any sort of seriousness. Are these "experts" on the COT trying to tell their readers/subscribers to go long and wait for this expected short squeeze?

I have said it so many times here that I get concerned I might be taxing the readers' patience but the simple facts are that speculators drive markets. While the Swap Dealing positioning is always interesting, they do not drive the market, SPECS DO. If they are buying, the price will rise. If they are selling the price will fall. As long as specs are in a market, there is always the potential for a short squeeze or a bout of long liquidation. That is not news nor is it noteworthy. And I am certainly not going to take a position because a bout of short covering just "MIGHT" occur because the Swap Dealers are holding a position on one side of the market. The possibility exists every day in the futures markets that specs could cover shorts or liquidate existing longs. However, they NEED A REASON TO DO SO.

What is noteworthy is if a key chart level is violated for any reason. Then the spec positioning becomes important. Such was the recent case with gold as the specs remained stubbornly bullish in spite of a deteriorating chart pattern as I have noted. Not until that key downside support level gave way at $1280 did we see them bail out. Same goes for silver on the "potential" for any so-called short squeeze - you need to see a key UPSIDE chart support level give way before that does happen. The problem for silver however is that the resistance level that needed to give way to induce this potential round of short covering was not violated. Quite the opposite happened, a downside support level gave way meaning that is WAS NOT a bout of short covering that took place but rather a bout of long liquidation from those specs which remain long and are now being forced out.

A quick comment on the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index or GSCI. I am including a chart of it to show where it stands in relation to the closing price of the index at the end of last year. It is currently up 2.7% since then. I prefer using this index rather than the CRB because I feel that the latter is too heavily weighted in the energy component side and thus does not give an accurate view into the overall commodity sector as a whole. I liked the old CCI much better but it is pretty much becoming defunct at this point. Anyway, the GSCI is fairly evenly weighted and provides a good picture of how commodities, as a whole, are performing.

One of the reasons I am not too concerned about this index at this point making any stronger gains and breaking out into a trend ( at this point ) is because the makeup of these indices includes the front month futures contract when calculating it. Several of the commodity futures markets that I actively trade are showing lower prices for later in the year however. That will not be noted on the index until those distant months become the front months as the calendar moves ahead.

That being said, a 2.7% increase in the sector, while noteworthy is not setting off any alarm bells at this point. Could things change in the sector and move higher? Sure they could - after all we are talking about markets and NOTHING is ever set in stone in any market but for now, upward price pressures across the sector in general remain muted. I would need to see this particular index breach 675 to become concerned about rising commodity prices at the wholesale level becoming a more serious concern.

Along that line, all of the grains are moving lower today, even the discombobulated soybean market which cannot seem to figure out what it wanst to look at on any given day on a consistent basis. Growing weather is looking ideal at the moment for this year's crop ( remember - we are talking weather so that could change, and probably will at some point in the growing season ) with sufficient rainfall and ground moisture. Rain makes grain is an old but true adage. The lower grain prices are good news for consumers and livestock and poultry producers. Along that line, feeder cattle keep soaring to record highs as cheap corn makes it a bit easier to stomach prices up here in record nosebleed territory.

Today is the end of the month for trading purposes so some of these price movements in the markets today should be viewed through the prism of possible book squaring and positioning evening out. How we start ( and finish ) next week will be more telling but with that being said, the charts are what they are so any moves in price that impact those charts, needs to be respected and heeded.

I will try to get some more up later on......


  1. nice post Dan. I get the feeling gold and silver will spike through last years lows before a bottom is put in. It should be noted today the economic news was mixed. April Consumer spending posted its first contraction since April 2013, UMICH confidence missed and was lowest in 6 months, household formation was the lowest in 30 years and the touted headline number of the Chicago PMI is betrayed by its underlying production numbers which fell, its employment index fell below its 12 month average and its prices paid surged by the most in 5 months. And to top it all off, the Financial Times claims the weakness in gold is due to weather. Unreal. With all the actual bad news, this market is irrational and I am going to sit on the sidelines.

  2. Armstrong's computer program says:

    "Gold is moving into the June seasonal low on schedule. A closing for the month on a Nearest Futures basis tomorrow [May 30] below 1251 should result in the sharp decline. A monthly closing BELOW 1192 will warn serious of a sharp decline that will more than likely break the $1000 level. C A U T I O N is highly advised."

    And all signs point down.

    Uncanny his program projects are.

    Trader Dan rightfully points out that gold is down not only in the US$ but other currencies as well.

    A projected bottom in June being the final low depends on which target is hit.

    1. Yep, its gotta be under 1000 dollar, or its not the final bottom imo.

      I think there will be agony for the bugs into 2015 and / or much lower then 1000 dollar.

  3. Sigh
    Guess the bloodletting / drounding will continue.

    On feeder cattle. Noted that the nigh Harris Ranch feed lot is 80% full on my weekend drive by. Look young and small. Hope the corn price compensates for the expensive hay. Planning more BBQ soon.

    1. Mike - missed the chance to thank you for the insight into how much silver goes into microprocessors. I used to drive by the Harris Ranch all the time on the way to school--you could smell it miles before laying eyes on it. Prime ribeye anywhere from $19-$26/lb in New York City.

    2. My pleasure, have made a few of those thick film circuits.

      I guess your a rural kid. That's a good start in life.

      Over the thirty years or so I've been making the LA to SF trek the Harris Ranch lots have expanded a bunch.

      They do smell but not as bad as the new dairy operations down towards Lost Hills.

  4. Long live paper!

    The wall street players have to get back to pre-recession levels of debauchery in order to really get this vibrant economy moving!

  5. THIS IS IT!!! IT IS NOW!!


    No seriously, GDX and GDXJ had a massive squeeze into the closing bell on huge volume.

    GDX/GLD ratio turned up 2 days ago, so odds are high that a bear market rally is about to begin in earnst.

    TRX was flat all day and MUX exploded into the closing bell.


    1. Is this guy for real or just a troll!

      No self respecting professional would post such tosh! Times have obviously changed since I was in the investment world and not for the better. if this is the future god help all of us.

      You might think you are clever now but the markets burns all of the clever boys in the end and one day I am afraid you will learn that fact. Reveling in the discomfort of others is a very bad trait and will only end in tears :-(

    2. Mark. My bet (and bought a little dust at the close) is that the bear cub rally will be small. Thinking is that gold has a bit father to go and that the HUI needs to double bottom. Probably wrong & will stop out quickly (usually don't open a position over the weekend, but I have some leverage as i closed out some of my puts on trx

    3. These days I scroll down to see Marks post before I read the new article Dan put up. You never disappoint me, Mark.

      David. One can make fun of charlatans without disrespecting their victims. Revelling in the discomfort of the Gurus is perfectly appropriate.

      If one has "learned the trade from Jesse and Bert", and "knows the future before it happens", one should have known better.

    4. Agree, Jasper. Mark is an excellent gadfly & amazingly unflappable.

    5. Jasper unfortunately the charlatans do have followers who have been badly burned and we should feel some respect for them. I am not one of them. as I have a diversified portfolio, but I can see a lot of people being ruined out there as I have many times before, and it is very sad. I still believe a big wave is coming which will sweep many investors away as it did in 1929 and cash and PMs will be king for a period. May not be tomorrow, but one day soon and no later than 2017!!!

    6. I respect the followers infinitely more then the charlatans.

      But I respect the truth even more then the followers.

      Let me tell you something. In august 2013 I noticed there was a stock operation going on in TRX, when TRX was booted from the GDX.

      I knew who was doing it. I informed Jim Sinclair about it and he gave me plausible denial. I then wrote Jim that I value truth over friends over money. Jim didnt post for two weeks in mineset after I had sent him that email.

      Truth over people over money.

      Mark will understand that. The cultists most likely do not.

    7. David, MDLGTO and Jasper are right on Mark. He is sarcastic as hell and irreverent, BUT has been very right for a long time. He doesn't go after investors, only the bogus swill that the perma bull charlatans constantly spew out. A lot of us do that and probably not enough, come to think of it. Take care and breathe through your nose; sparks

  6. Nice to see gold touch 1250 again. My one concern is that it was on low volume into the 4:00 GLD close. Let's see if there is follow through to the upside on Monday. As always, be careful out there and keep your physical hedged.

    GDX downside was limited today and signaled that any further Au/Ag price downside was going to be minimal. GDX signaled the GC afternoon turnaround.

  7. Thanks Dan, appreciate the update.

    Any PM expert or pundit out there who is desperately trying to convince others to stay the course and ignore the steady and obvious 3 YEAR downtrend in the metals is basically asking/pleading with their audience to ignore reality and stick their head further in the sand despite what the market and charts and cycles have been indicating.

    In fact, the current spin out of the hardcore 'bug/doomer camps is that their flock (or herd?) of ostriches should be wary of all the other traders or chartists because they continue to (how dare they!) discuss the current lousy sentiment and PM action in "unrosy" terms.

    A sensible ostrich at some point (whether they want to admit it to themselves or not) will think to themselves...."You've been asking/telling and even demeaning us into keeping our heads buried down here and to ignore everybody else (for dubious self-serving reasons) and now you're telling us you saw sub $1250 snd $19 coming?!?!
    How long are we supposed to stay down here and keep our intuitive senses blinded by your faith based phyz metal investing philosophy where basically a dire, apocolyptic govt. or socioeconomic event is the hoped/feared for catalyst
    that takes gold/silver to the promised land that resides in your magical realm?"

    Seriously though....at some point even a blind, deaf or dumb ostrich (or lemming) can sense the movement or feel the vibe or trend is not a good one nor a sensible one when the lead ostrich refuses or is incapable of sound instincts or is blinded by tunnel vision.
    Their basic messaging is...."Go into a blind fetal position for as long as possible and ignore all the noise or reality that you might be sensing or witnessing all around you.
    Sooner or later it'll be ok to uncurl yourself and pull your head out of the sand. Trust me or go fuck off because your obviously a trol/ disinfo agent aligned against me."

    It's as simple as that. Keep your head buried in the sand, continue to ignore your gut instincts and immerse yourself in someone else's magical realm filled with enemies/agents or see the trend and charts for what they are and where they appear to be headed...again.

    At what point does a sensible, objective person start to recognize they're being unmistakenably pandered to and told what they need to hear....even if it's being made up as they go along while the PM's suck wind for now.

    Recognize it for what it is and listen to your gut and not your pandered to heart.

    1. "Look, you pay me for my opinion and this is it...

      These are desperate times for a Bullion Bank Cartel that is clinging to power with empty vaults, tight supply and endless demand. Not only is London's gold gone, but the price has been driven so low that it's profitless for miners to even yank metal out of the ground and these same minors are nearly out of business as their stock prices do reflect. The gold chart was painted with obvious pennants so that, when the pennants were made to fail, every blind momo spec would rush into the short side of the trade on the "technical weakness" of the failure. Taking the long side of this trade by covering shorts is that same Bullion Bank Cartel. While we can't say for certain that 'The End' is near, we can say that consistently lower prices are pressing against the proverbial "Spring"."

      free use. go to TFMetalsrteport.com and pay the ten bucks for more.

      sorry for spamming your site Dan. won't happen again.

    2. peckerwood;

      That is indeed pathetic. what is more pathetic is enough people pay this person their hard-earned money and read that crap to keep him in business.

      Yes, the gold chart painted with obvious pennants because the entire contingent of traders all knew, to a man and woman, without exception, how the events in the Ukraine were going to play out. Everyone was certain. ( note - this is me and my sarcasm again)

      This is what happens when you get someone with no successful trading experience, who does not understand markets, or sentiment and how it shifts, ebbs and flows, setting himself up as an expert and feeding the cult mentality.

      "Endless demand"? Is that endless demand included in the disgorging of gold by GLD. Western investors apparently have had lots of "endless demand" for the last three years because they have been selling gold and "endlessly demanding" equities in its place.

      People like him blame everything on "the cartel" so that when their nonsensical goofball fantasies, fail to materialize, they are completely without blame.

      "yes we told you that gold was going higher but, but, but, the gold cartel stopped it. We were right if only were it not for the big bad evil banking cartel. We know, that gold can only go in one direction - UP - and if it does not, then something is wrong with the world."

      Note - there is never the "something is wrong with my blockheaded approach to this market".

      Unreal....and pathetic.

      I wish that people who keep these hucksters supported would come to their senses and understand how they are being ruined by them.

    3. This comment has been removed by the author.

    4. Working from memory, the tale they spun is that the "raiding" of GLD was the result of an evil backdoor conspiracy deal between the "Bullion Bank Cartel" and the Chinese, to supply Chinese "endless demand".

      Of course it is all malarky, but it just shows how even the most bearish of data can be spun around to actually be a super duper juicy bullish conspiracy that somehow manages to confirm everything!

      Extreme Kool-Aid Poisoning going on over there.

      The above tale is really just an expansion of the usual canard, that with every drop in price, "oh my god, the chinese are buying!" Price drops some more, and "oh my god, the chinese are buying some more!"

      Hellishly bad chart action and massive losses by subscribers, routinely spun around as super duper bullish news! BTFD! That will be $10 please.

    5. They alternate, and sometimes intertwine the Chinese spin with the one about the Cartel. When prices are down, "The Cartel is desperate!". And when prices are down some more, "The Cartel is REALLY desperate! BTFD! That will be $10 please.

      And amazingly, they tell the same tale when prices are up! Prices are up, so "the Chinese are buying! and the Cartel is desperate!" Whoo, hooooo! Same answer no matter what the chart says, up or down. Buy, buy, buy! That will be another $10 please.

  8. I wouldn't be too hasty betting on a fast collapse regarding gold. Dan mentioned "grinding down" and I'd agree because of the proximity of several supports.
    First long term upwards support is now in the 1220 area.
    But even before that, I'm back again to my Fibonacci ratios. I'm still using the retracements of the 1180-1435 move which is for me the range we are in.
    Interestingly, we can see that the recent range of gold was bouncing within 2 of those levels, 1277 and 1307. The next and last ratio of 77% is at 1240. We already made it there, or nearly. A bounce towards the previous Fibo at 1277 is still quite possible at any time imho. Call it a dead cat bounce, whatever, but I'd be uneasy to go short gold now. Because long-term, we are pretty close to the upwards support at 1220 which is still here and holding. And short-term, well, it's too late, I was hoping for a bounce back towards 1280 to short, but prices kept falling and never made it back above the horizontal polarity line at 1268 $.

    Here is my chart daily/weekly


  9. It is simply interesting to keep a track record of self proclaimed analysts with paid letters or services.
    Top on my list for now is Mr Bo Polny who was, early 2014, sending lots of "free samples" to convince you to subscribe to his incredibly expensive paid newsletter.
    At that time, silver was about to break up one of his many downwards resistances and therefore, was about to breakup very rapidly with a breakup gap, and you would never ever see again the 19 $ area. Please remember this when you read again one of the ads of that guy and his bold prediction (he thinks he is the reincarnation of Gann) : "I don't care where prices are now (he'd better not!), gold must hit 2000 $ by the end of 2014". I'll watch Mr Polny fail on this forecast as he failed twice on predicting the bottom for gold before before getting it right (someday, everyone finally gets it right).

    Dan posted a great article about the dangers of following the breakup of such "downards resistances" at that time.

    But now on my monitoring list as well is the great visionary and his powerful A.I Socrates, Mr Martin Armstrong, the guy who lived 9 standard lives by knowing practically everything. So let's see, as Mr Armstrong is very popular now among the investors community and especially very sure of himself (which is why I don't trust him in the first place and don't like him).

    Correct me if I'm wrong but the gold's futures closed below 1250, even if we had some bounce on the CFDs in the latest minutes. Maybe I'm wrong, so just let me know the closing price of the Futures.
    Martin just stated that a close under 1251 (not 1250, I hope you noticed) will lead to a quick drop further in prices. He doesn't mention 1240 nor 1220.
    Let's watch this forecast closely in june.

    1. Hubert;

      He can always blame it on "the manipulators". You and I both know, because we actually trade in the markets, that we are either right or we are wrong. If we screw up a trade, we lose money. We study what happened, what we might be able to do differently and then hopefully are successful the next time around. We pay when we are wrong or make a mistake.

      For people like these newsletter hucksters, they pay nothing for being wrong. LIke I have said many times - they are the proverbial plague of locusts that descend on a land, stripping it bare of anything green and lush, and leaving a desolated wilderness behind in what was once a garden of Eden.

    2. Hubert Du Haut, whats with the vitriol towards Armstrong? It puzzles me when people bust his balls and throw in the ad hominem attacks questioning his character.

    3. Dan,

      "He can always blame it on "the manipulators".

      I hope you are not throwing Martin Armstrong in with those dullards writing funny papers for the neophytes. He doesn't preach that garbage EVER.

    4. Hi John,

      Some of Armstrong's work is quite interesting, and I find his blog worth reading, as I am doing so myself, but just as I wrote :
      - I separate his "fundamental" thoughts with is forecasts "TA based" for gold, and as he just made one, I'll follow his track record to check if his method is really worth anything or is another BS as I read at many other places. To be accurate by one dollar like 1251 already makes me itch, so let's just check and see what happens.
      - I don't like a blog where you can't post, a guy who doesn't answer you, posts only comments where the question starts with "Mr Armstrong, you are so great", and I don't like people with big ego who think they are the ones who discovered The Truth and that other people are stupid. Having read Armstrong's blog for quite a while, I find him too arrogant and sure of himself to trust his judgement. Still, his blog is good food for thought, as long as the thought remains mine :)

    5. John Taylor;

      Not at all my friend. I was speaking to the Polny newsletter and its hubristic predictions. guys like that are a disgrace. They are blinded by their own sense of infallibility.
      One would think that they would eventually become humbled by their glaring inaccuracy but nope - blame it on "manipulation" allows one to feed their pride.

      It comes down to egos in my view John. I think a lot of newsletter writers/blog owners etc, are essentially very insecure people my friend. They need constant stoking of their egos.

      I have met a lot of people like that and they are in every walk of life but there sure seems to be an extra large percentage of them infesting the gold community.

      Enjoy the weekend.

  10. Silver : imho the 19 $ support level is important on a monthly time scale, because it corresponds to a critical Fibonacci ratio (77% last hope) of the 9 - 50 $ upwards move long-term.
    And yes indeed, for the first time we closed below 19 $ this month. BUT, the support area given on the weekly time unit is so close from 19 $ that I don't give it all the significance mentioned above. Closing at 18.60 is really too close still from 19 $ and the Fibo level when compared to the whole move of 9$-50$ to make a difference. We are still, barely, within the support area.
    The real lows of silver were made last year, at 18.30 $ approximately.
    This is imho the real last line of defense for silver bulls.
    It matches the inf Bollinger Band on the weekly time scale, reinforcing the potential for support / bounce.
    So...even though 19 $ has been broken, bulls still stand a chance of a reversal near 18.30 $. On the other hand, if they fail at holding that line...then I target 16.50 $ directly.

  11. This is a trend.
    Inflation on everything you need to buy in order to survive.
    Deflation on anything you don't need to survive.
    After all, eventually, people will have to sell their gold in order to buy food.


    1. Hubert Du Haut,
      I can make a nice lick if silver can close between 17.67 and 18.27 on the June 27th. What do you think about my chances?

    2. imho it's a pretty small window for silver, given its volatility when it's on the move, and that it's one month from now. I'd be lucky to get in the window, so once more it also depends on what odds you are given. If its 2/1 I definitely won't take it, if it's 100/1, why not? :)

    3. John Taylor, good to see you back; I am with Hubert on Armstrong, who has repeatedly said that he does not need any $ and so forth and so on, so if that is the case why does he not give Socrates away for nothing? Secondly, his fractured syntax and lack of spellcheck is very puzzling. Last but not least is his claim that he has prices and records of everything and anything, going back thousands of years. Oh, really? We got bridges for sale in Tucson also. His timelines YEARS out are also about as valuable as tits on a boar hog also. Reminds me of guys on ESPN making predictions in the summer of eventual standings for the upcoming football season. Bar Talk. Same with Mel Kiper, Jr., a tremendous self-promoter, but basically full of shit. Having said all that, Armstrong does make lots of valid points, like the 4th Turning authors, but hey, at the end of the day, if you make comments on everything under the sun, you have to be right on lots of calls, right? Trading these broken mkts is all about discipline and like hitting in baseball---you are going to be wrong 70% of the time, but you can still be profitable year end, BUT, you have to check your ego at the door. Take care.

  12. Long term support for silver is around $12.50.

    Knocking another $250 off the price of gold doesn't seem so outlandish anymore.

    Fibs are nice but the zero line is usually ignored.

    Fundamentally silver is an industrial metal for the time being with low demand because economies around the world are slack.

    China was buying everything at the top it seems not to long ago and stockpiling minerals. Over a billion consumers there and they still can't take first position in the world economy while the US turn the energy picture upside down in a blink of an eye. Russia re(?)-annexes irradiated land with gobs more potential for other nuclear meltdowns. All very Interesting.

  13. Dan - many thanks for your most useful insights. I wonder, what risk do you think there is that gold will go appreciably below 1180?
    Thanks once again.

    1. Arthur;

      Thank you.

      I honestly do not know is the best answer that I can truthfully give you. I have never been much good at predicting what might happen in markets. I can have an inclination but have found that more often than not, it tends to mess with my objectivity and thus ends up making me stay in a losing trade longer than I should have.

      That is why I have to just respect the price action Arthur and go with it. One must remain extremely flexible and nimble in these modern markets of ours because they can change in a proverbial heartbeat.

  14. Hi, Dan,

    >The lower grain prices are good news for consumers and livestock and >poultry producers. Along that line, feeder cattle keep soaring to record >highs as cheap corn makes it a bit easier to stomach prices up here in >record nosebleed territory.

    I do not understand this part. Which direction of cattle price are you predicting?



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