"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


Tuesday, December 24, 2013

Merry Christmas

"For unto us a child is born, unto us a son is given: and the government shall be upon his shoulder: and his name shall be called Wonderful, Counsellor, The mighty God, The everlasting Father, The Prince of Peace.
Of the increase of his government and peace there shall be no end, upon the throne of David, and upon his kingdom, to order it, and to establish it with judgment and with justice from henceforth even for ever. The zeal of the LORD of hosts will perform this."  ( Isaiah 9: 6-7)
"But thou, Bethlehem Ephratah, though thou be little among the thousands of Judah, yet out of thee shall he come forth unto me that is to be ruler in Israel; whose goings forth have been from of old, from everlasting." ( Micah 5: 2)
"And it came to pass in those days, that there went out a decree from Caesar Augustus, that all the world should be taxed.
( And this taxing was first made when Cyrenius was governor of Syria.)
And all went to be taxed, every one into his own city.
And Joseph also went up from Galilee, out of the city of Nazareth, into Judaea, unto the city of David, which is called Bethlehem; (because he was of the house and lineage of David:) 
to be taxed with Mary his espoused wife, being great with child.
And so it was, that, while there were there, the days were accomplished that she should be delivered.
And she brought forth her firstborn son, and wrapped him in swaddling clothes, and laid him in a manger; because there was no room for them in the inn.
And there were in the same country shepherds abiding in the field, keeping watch over their flock by night.
And, lo, the angel of the Lord came upon them, and the glory of the Lord shone round about them: and they were sore afraid.
And the angel said unto them, Fear not: for, behold, I bring you good tidings of great joy, which shall be to all the people. For unto you is born this day in the city of David a Saviour, which is Christ the Lord.
And this shall be a sign unto you; Ye shall find the babe wrapped in swaddling clothes, lying in a manger.
And suddenly there was with the angel a multitude of the heavenly host praising God, and saying,
Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace, good will toward men" ( Luke 2: 1-14)  
"And without controversy great is the mystery of godliness: God was manifest in the flesh, justified in the Spirit, seen of angels, preached unto the Gentiles, believed on in the world, received up into glory." ( 1 Tim 3:16)
"In the beginning was the Word, and the Word was with God, and the Word was God. All things were made through Him, and without Him nothing was made that was made. In Him was life, and the life was the light of men.... And the Word became flesh and dwelt among us, and we beheld His glory, the glory as of the only begotten of the Father, full of grace and truth."   ( John 1: 1-3, 14)

Christmas has a special meaning for those of us who are Christians. We celebrate it not merely for the reason that we believe God took upon Himself flesh and dwelt among us, but more importantly that He took upon Himself flesh for one reason -  so that He might offer Himself upon a bloody cross as a sacrifice for the sins all who would come to believe upon Him, thereby satisfying the claims of Divine Justice in His own person and opening the gate to eternal life. This is our "Good News" or Gospel message.
Gold may be a precious thing, as is silver, and we value them in this life,  but one cannot take either of them with us when we exit this world. They only have value in this life. As Christians we take the time during this season to reflect on those things which have lasting value.
May you have a wonderful and blessed Christmas.


  1. Amen and thank you. Merry Christmas

  2. Thank you Trader Dan. I hope you have a Merry Christmas as well.

  3. Thank you for all your hard work Trader Dan! Merry Christmas to all!

    Cheers, GB

  4. Dan,
    What beautiful thoughts. You are a special person.


  5. Brother Dan, I wish you and your family a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.

    Your in Christ,


  6. Sa Weet post!

    His Fellow Servant,

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  8. I came to read a passage from Remi Brague (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R%C3%A9mi_Brague) stating in very simple words that those looking for a proof of God are usually not seeking Him with the right instrument. Just as one can't smell a scent with his eyes, or see a color with his ears, one's brains might not be the right instrument to look for God. The right instrument might be your heart.
    I find this remark very true and I wish to everyone to celebrate with the right instrument today, wherever they are. Merry christmas to everyone.

  9. Awesome post Dan. Definitely the most beneficial and important post you have ever written or could possibly write.

    Merry Christmas and thank you for all you hard, selfless work.

    In Christ,

  10. Last chart posted on last line regarding gold. I'm careful.

    Since Dan mentioned Copper and its correlation with Silver, I'm regularly having a look at it.
    Lately, it's not so bad, isn't it?
    Not only it didn't break through 3, but it even tried to break above 3,30 and the top of the range.
    Is this sensible with all the deflationary speeches we hear?
    If Dr Copper usually shows the way, then maybe we should keep a look at the resistance of 3,30 and which way Copper decides to go during the next few days?

  11. Darkness is the absence of light.
    Cold is the absence of heat, more precisely the absence of movement at a molecular level (-273°C being the lowest possible temperature)
    Evil is the absence of God in one's soul.
    Therefore there is a side to choose.
    Therefore evil is always a threat.
    Even if this link is not fully true, it reminds the dangers surrounding us from sociopaths who care about nothing but power.


    If not only history, we have now movies to remind us to wake up and fight for our freedom, stand against the danger of evil, which, if it is simply the absence of God in man's souls, will always be around us.
    The Matrix. House of Cards. Equilibrium...

    Christ taught us that everyone is free, everyone is equal, everyone can think for themselves, is free of his choices, and have a right to speak and be considered. Individuals matter. No more poor brainless slaves obeying their richest masters.

  12. I think the prologue of John is just wonderful. I think the heart of our time is verse 5. Recognition that the World just cannot comprehend the Word of God made flesh. It is literally outside the most basic understanding of those who live only in the world.

    "John1:5 The light shines in the darkness, but the darkness has not understood it."

    But, by the light of Faith, we have Chirst. His incarnation is Light of the world.

    I hope and pray that you all have a blessed and grace-ful Christmas. Remember that Christmas octave continues to Jan 2nd. Still much time to contemplate Christ in the manger and that inestibable gift to us from God.

  13. Thank you so much, Dan. Several others have already expressed the same words I would write.

    I hope you and your family are enjoying this Christmas season.

  14. I have learned to never express a sentiment contrary to those being espoused by christians. It only leads to name calling, condemnation, and unwanted prayers. Nevertheless, have a terrific vacation.

    1. Hi Jimster, I'd generally agree with you, but it's not about christians, rather about any talks about a sensitive topic as religion. Many people are less open to dialogue when you get into this subject. Maybe because it is sacred to them. I guess we'll make real progress on earth when people can start discussing freely about their different points of views about religion without arguing with each other, then beyond religion about simple faith, so that the most important thing of all becomes the respect of everyone's opinion and the curiosity to lean more. After all, who went there and back to tell us what happened? :)
      My faith is built on my personal experience, on a few occasions.
      The christian god is also the representation of god I respect the most, for several reasons.
      As the Dalaï Lama said, alll religiions (buddhism included) have the same core message. Compassion. Empathy. Respect and love each other. Following it and everything's fine. Follow anything else, and you'll have endless religion wars.

    2. Jesus answered, "I am the way and the truth and the life. No one comes to the Father except through me."

      It's tough to get around that.

  15. Blessings to you, for what you share of your heart and your mind, together as one presence upon this site. May all the guidance and protection of the Christ Light be upon you and yours these days ahead, when the shadowless light of God that never fails will rise among many, and eventually all!! And as a girl who reads this site, blessed be unto Mary, Beloved Mother Mary of Christ and all of us, for the soul, the heart too, shall resurrect more fully in all of us these days ahead. A beacon of heart and soul, of mind and light, of Divine Mother/Father God you are, a blessing to all who seek peace in decisions of finance and life. even though there is sometimes some funny back and forth between some posters on this site, that is too, its own creation and really the site would not be all it is without all that back and forth. Blessings to all, and to all a good night!

  16. Posted my updated T.A on the previous line (friday's gold prices).
    Have a nice day all,

  17. "We Haven't Seen Shocking Numbers Like This in Years"

    GDX down over 50% in 2013 while XLY is up 30% during the same time period.

    "Chaos and Destruction For Years to Come"

    Pretty much states the current situation facing the gold and silver mining community right now.

    "Global Shock"

    That's what the bad news bears are feeling right now, seeing that they have missed out in a once in a lifetime opportunity to build wealth in U.S. stocks the last 5 years.

    This year will go down in history as one of the greatest ever for financial markets:

    - Soaring stock prices

    - Zero inflation

    - Cheap money abundant everywhere

    1. That's exactly what they said in '86, '00, '07, etc. Mark, serious question, are you a paid posting by some political agenda? The reason I ask is because you post has 0 percent to do with the topic of Dan's post.

    2. I suspect Mark is driving through the rear vision mirror and clearly he is lost!

  18. Absolute frenzy among global investors "buying the freaking dip" in the USDX today.

    Huge reversal and turnaround.

    While the Canadian Dollar continues its decimation, as a result of the hapless and hopeless mining and resources based economy still mired in one of the worst depressions on record.

    1. Mark…you moron

    2. I don't think there's depression anywhere in general. Thailand, Dubai, Arabia, India, Brazil, U.S.A., Europe, Russia, France, China, Japan, Philippines, South Africa,...all thriving. This alleged bubble just started to inflate in 2009. It has a long way to go before it even nears bursting.

      You will now see stocks move up like never before. This recent rise was just a little jolt. It might even go parabolic here. DJIA 20,000 is nothing. The global money managers are getting this figured out.

      That's my sentiment. I can neither confirm not deny the accuracy thereof but I would be surprised of anything besides.

    3. News Unit, we are ihaving a major recession inside Europe, especially of course southern Europe.
      From the charts I see regarding USA (US debt, food stamps, mortgage applications, real unemployment i.e shadowstats), I think you are pretty much in the same situation.

      As for the allaged bubble which just started to inflate, watch in the quarterly or yearly charts where are the Bollinger Bands and prices and tell me again you are sure it has a long way to go :)

    4. Hubert: I'm all ears. I'd like to hear more about Europe. For those of us unaware please keep us advised. I'm not well acquainted with Europe as you are since I live here in the U.S.A.

      And if someone is in here from China I wonder if they can show us who's buying all this gold.

      All the rest of the fluff that gets reported in the news is just fluff.

  19. This comment has been removed by the author.

  20. Never had an idea about this, will look for more of such informative posts from your side.. good job…ACC 202 Individual Assignment

  21. Hi Dan,

    I just read this from Craig Roberts on KWN.
    This is interesting because I can see how far can someone can go to not understand the principles of trading and money flows.
    Gold doesn't NEED a reason to correct after 12 years of endless growth.
    If markets needed a reason to krach, every krach would be predictable in terms of timing. What news, what reason provoked the krach of october 1929?
    At 1920+, gold just went ahead of itself, but as you mentioned, one would have to consider that every single commodity market is being manipulated as well, down to cattle, corn, sugar... well that's what he says : everything must be manipulated, as there is no apparent reason for gold to correct.

    I see a major one : hedge funds are manipulating incredible amounts of money and if they decided to take their profits and sell their long positions, the trend reinforced itself without much of a help.
    (Still, I do think there is REAL manipulation on gold market, but at some key levels, even in this downwards market, I mean I think simply about the 500 tons sold mid-april. Was this hedge funds and algos? And also about the blocking of gold just under 1800 $ last winter. It was a solid wall. Was it only hedge funds? You know better, it's only my theory, sentiment, not facts).

    What they fail to understand is that now that the trend is here and is bearish, gold is going down under its own weigh because of all the long positions those guys are selling in order to buy the stock markets. What is so complicated to understand here? Why talk about every day manipulation for every downward move? I don't know if Sinclair agrees with Roberts, but that would surprise me even more, as, dang, he knows what a trading floor is.

    "They have all these theories and charts, and there’s a ‘correction.’ Well, there’s no reason for gold to be ‘correcting’ because the policy that caused gold’s rise has not been corrected. In fact, it’s gotten worse.

    So why is there a correction in the gold market? The government hasn’t ceased issuing huge amounts of debt, and printing money so the Fed can purchase it (the debt). Nothing has changed. So why would there be a correction (in gold)?

    "What amazes me, Eric, is that there are still people who absolutely get livid if you tell them they (the bullion banks) are manipulating the gold market. And these are people who have been in gold for a long time, who trade it...
    I don’t understand why people can’t simply see that the market is clearly manipulated, and why they are in denial about that. I think the fact that enough of the goldbugs are in denial makes it easy for the authorities to continue the manipulation.
    Eric, everything is manipulated. "

    1. Hubert;

      Here we go again with this manipulation misinformation. Let's call it "MM".

      Translation from that nonsense: " The price of gold should be going up, ACCORDING TO MY VIEW OF THINGS, and it is not but it is instead going down. Therefore ( NOTE THE IMPECCABLE DISPLAY OF LOGIC ABOUT TO BE REVEALED.... get ready, here it comes: Drum Roll - It must be manipulated by the bullion banks even though the price of most commodities in general had been moving lower.

      Never mind that the biggest buyer on the floor right now is JP Morgan for their house account. And never mind that the hedge funds are selling... and never mind that the Velocity of Money is falling... and never mind that the liquidity being created from QE is not making its way into the Broader economy.... and never mind that wages are flat/stagnant... and never mind that consumers have been more interested in paying down debt over the last couple of year rather than taking on big new amounts of debt... and never mind that while the jobs situation is improving, overall hiring remains moribund... and never mind that the labor participation rate is at the lowest level in more than 30 years... and never mind .... we could go on and on and on.

      This is what happens when someone simply does not understand markets and sentiment and money flows. Sentiment is what moves markets - not the actual realities but rather how traders/investors PERCEIVE things. When perception changes, then price changes.

      What this sort of MM is all about, is really a case of sour grapes by too many who got married to gold and failed to treat it like any other investment out there. It is just like holding onto a stock that has sunk in price because "I just know it is going to turn around and go back up".

      My contention remains the same... gold is insurance... it is protection against a currency that is being debasement. The result of currency debasement is inflation. That was the reason that the gold price climbed so sharply while the Dollar was sinking. Once the Dollar stopped sinking and became the go-to currency of choice out of the rest of the majors, the price of gold, along with the price of many other commodities began to move lower because hedge funds and other large speculators did not feel the need for tangible assets to protect against an eroding currency.

      When the sentiment in the market shifts back in favor of inflation/growth, gold will stop going down. For all I know it might have already bottomed out. That does not mean it is now about to head to the stratosphere but rather that it might have found an equilibrium or balance between supply and demand.

      When Mr. Roberts states that "he does not understand why people can't simply see that the market is clearly manipulated" he is putting on full display his IGNORANCE of money flows and the very nature of markets. Talk about hubris. "If you don't subscribe to my view of everything is manipulated, you are nothing but a buffoon because you it is obvious that it is an empirical certainty".

      My answer is if it makes him feel better about all the damned money he lost in his investment accounts, then let him rant on. Ranting is not a substitute for learning how to read and trade markets.

    2. Thanks Dan,

      Very useful answer, because we really have the two points of view and the reason of what's going wrong with Robert's claims.

      One shouldn't get too much impressed by titles, I guess.
      I really came to note that traders probably are somehow the most neutral and objective analysts about price action because they simply can't afford the luxury to be wrong a long time or they'd go bankrupt. But I must admit I'm surprised to see people with such a background acting without the simple realization of market behavior. I come to realize that only a few people actually achieve to remain fully objective about what's happening now, with many people I wouldn't have thought possible to make a blunder.

      By the way, when you say :
      "Sentiment is what moves markets - not the actual realities but rather how traders/investors PERCEIVE things. When perception changes, then price changes.",

      You completely remind me a recent quote of Jesse Livermore :
      "Doesn't matter as much whether sentiment bearish or bullish; what matters is whether it's going to stay that way" :)

      Have a blessed weekend,

    3. Trader Dan:

      Are Market Makers literally market manipulators?

    4. Hubert;

      Guys can have all sorts of fancy titles such as Roberts does and still not have a clue as to how markets function. they run on perception, not reality. When perceptions change and with those, sentiment, then the price turns.

    5. New Unit;

      No, I do not think Market Makers are market manipulaters. They provide liquidity by taking the other side of trades and hoping to make profits from small moves. They just try to pick up a lot of nickels along the way rather than going for the big move.

  22. Dan

    Why does JS still insist on MM?
    Has he become delusional ?

    1. Dean Baturine;

      I think Concord has summed things up well.... I do not dispute that the gold price is closely watched by the Fed and that they become increasingly nervous/fretful when the price is rising too rapidly as the Dollar sinks lower. That is when they take steps to intervene in the market place through the bullion banks and work to keep the rise as much contained as possible. They cannot reverse the rise higher but try to slow it down.

      However, I think it is important to note that if the gold price is currently being manipulated as some claim ( it is not) then the price of nearly every other commodity out there must also be subject to manipulation because they were all going down also. The idea is silly on the surface.

      What happened is very simple but some are refusing to accept it: the QE programs did not produce the kind of inflationary pressures that so many of us initially believed it would.

      Now that stocks are rising and inflation seems tame, money flow are heading into equities and leaving gold.

      When that reverses is anyone's guess but until the money flows return to gold in a positive direction, it is going to struggle.

    2. Jim has stated that nothing can be manipilated against the trend for long. When jim is complaining about manipulators he is refusing to tell what he clearly must know namely that the trend is down. Same.time.he is advising people to buy gold at 1650 1500 all the way down to 1200 after he sold 3.5 million shares in his own company on the way up. Jim taught me to do my own due diligence.

    3. Jasper

      How true…so much for the "I want to help people survive what is coming" nonsense.
      It's always about making money and it matters not how you do it or who you hurt.

    4. In my mind how its done and who is hurt matters a lot. I was at the london q & a and saw jim being hugged by widosw and orphans that literraly stated they consider him the father they never had. Jim was telling his company will produce this year on multiple site at a cost of 250 to 350 dollar. There are limits to whats acceptable in my mind and jim has crossed them.

    5. Very true Jasper.
      You can really trust no one.
      I do not know how someone can do what he has done and still sleep at night.
      I wonder if he would do that to a dog?

  23. Dean,
    I think MM is really something that is being interpreted differently by Sinclair and others. The back of gold was broken and has not come back. Something did happen in April and I think it most certainly involved was some of the big banks. Since that time the MM theories have gotten silly though. Gold is not responding because the stock market took all it buyers. It hasn't come back and the jury is out when it will because disaster is just not surfacing although America is not thriving in any real way. It will come and when it does as Dan says gold will rise as I know you know.

  24. Hey Dan,

    I wrote a technical analysis report on the Russian ruble, and it includes analysis of some commodities like crude (briefly mentions covers some others). I wanted to get your opinion on the analysis. I posted it here. Nice blog by the way:


  25. Jesus is Lord which will become increasingly known as the future unfolds.

  26. The Germany gold stuff is coming up again. Here is what I don't understand. The US had to give Germany 700 tons of gold. It doesn't have to be the same gold as was given. It just needs to be 700 tons. So why doesn't the US sell 700 tons here and at the same time buy 700 tons in Germany and the deal is done. The only sensible explanation is that the US doesn't have the gold.

    1. Arnie,
      The question is, is why is German accepting of the very inadequate response to their request. And why is the press not questioning it? I think Germany may have been told the markets would not handle the news well.

    2. I think you are right. But the news that they would not handle well is, that the US doesn't have the gold.

  27. The greatest post in the financial realm I've ever read. Glad to see you know the King, Dan. He said, "I counsel you to buy from Me gold refined in the fire, that you may be rich." Blessed are those who do.

  28. Which is going down faster?

    Gold mining stocks or the Japanese Yen?

    Tough call.

    Wow, XAU now down 54% this year.

    Tan Range all the way down to $1.75, McEwen mining under $2.00

    That's what I call a "Terrifying Collapse", LOL.....

  29. One last day before month end / year end and it the more we'll be below 1220, the more it will stink for the beginning of next year imho :(
    Not to mention that the ma20 is one more time resistance.
    Really nothing positive...

    1. P.S : not possible to post realtime about my positions, simply put I'm trying to go short when we reach the ma20 / ema15 daily, then when / if prices drop back enough towards the 1190 area, I quickly put my stop loss at or under my sell order so that I suffer no loss in the case of a bounce.
      Have a nice day,

    2. why do we over analyze this? I have a standing order to cover all my shorts at 1,000. We have less than 200 to go now. The damage is done. I shorted straight down from the 1,632 bearish wedge failure in February. We are 70% to my goal, and I still have all my gold.

      I cannot emphasize this enough. NEVER again own any miners. they will be coerced into hedging, with the globalists taking the other side. The miners are becoming zombies for the globalists to manage gold forever. It is so simple to see. I guess there are few out there than can understand this.

      Own physical gold! Gold eagles for Americans. there is no paperwork at the gold dealers for American bullion.

  30. GLD and GDX plummeting into the closing bell.

    Wow, complete chaos and destruction in 2013.

    Commodities of all stripes getting hammered today.

    No wonder XLY is less than 15 cents away from all-time, world record, closing highs today.

    XRT less than $1 from another record, thanks to Macy's.


  31. Now that Dec settlements are out of the way, gold will be pulled down to the next bearish wedge level for February settlement.


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