"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


Thursday, October 24, 2013

So much for China concerns

Yesterday the focus was on concerns about a potential slowing of Chinese growth as officials there let it be known that they were attempting to throttle back a housing market that is showing serious signs of price inflation. That led to widespread selling of growth related commodities across the board as evidenced by the sharp selloff in crude oil ( a good deal of this was related to the increase in crude oil stocks as well) and in copper, a particularly growth sensitive metal. It also tripped up gold.

Talk about a change in sentiment in one day! Today the tone was set by more abysmal economic data coming out of the US. Factory activity showed the slowest gains in a year. If that was not bad enough, a larger than expected number of people applied for first time jobless benefits. Both served as a gloomy reminder of how poor the labor market is here in the US. Throw in comments by Fed governor Evans, that the sky is basically the limit when it comes to Quantitative Easing and the size of the Fed's balance sheet, and the Dollar struggled all day while gold shot higher with traders there now firmly convinced that there will be no let up in the Fed bond and MBS buying program anytime soon.

What seemed to be happening was a near reversal of yesterday's trade in which macro funds were throwing away commodities. Today even crude oil managed to bounce well off its intraday lows and trades tied to the weaker Dollar surfaced.

In all honesty, I am having a great deal of difficulty reading many of these markets as their price movements are becoming increasingly unpredictable and disconnected from underlying fundamental realities. In this I am not alone. Many traders are worn out from the herky-jerky price swings, most without rhyme or reason and are scaling way back in position size or sitting out altogether. Both make a lot of sense right now. If you cannot understand why a market is doing what it is doing, be careful. That is not the time to try being a hero.

What we are witnessing is this larger macro trade distorting many individual commodity markets. Let me explain - there are certain funds that are long-only funds which offer their clients exposure to the long side of the commodity sector in general. They have not been doing all that well of late truth be told. But, and this is a big "but", their theme mainly consists of keying off any weakness in the US Dollar and then buying across the board in the commodity sector as they benchmark to one of the various commodity indices out there. That means they buy BLINDLY, with no regard whatsoever to the individual fundamentals of supply/demand in those markets.

The idea behind their buying is that weakness in the US Dollar is going to eventually result in inflation and thus they push the "buy tangible assets" theme. So into the commodity markets they come crashing, with their various buy orders shoving prices higher. Then, in those particular markets where the fundamentals are bearish, sellers come in to meet that buying. When these index funds take a break from buying, the price then falls off during the session only to come right back up as they buy once again. The result is a series of maddening price swings which confuses floor traders and others alike who are attempting to get a handle on the market.

The problem this is creating is that no one really understands when this sort of buying will fade and when it will come in because it is tied to the vagaries of the currency markets. Right now the Dollar is having trouble moving higher because traders are convinced that the Fed is going to remain on the dovish side until at least March of next year. But just like yesterday, when we get some sort of hint that China might be tightening monetary policy or trying to slow price pressures across their economy, the hedge funds come in and press it from the short side. If there is any Dollar weakness, the index funds come in a buy and back and forth it goes.

I honestly do not have any idea when this is going to end. I wish it would but it is the spawn of those monetary elites that sit on the FOMC. When you have an entire economy's well being or lack thereof completely addicted to an endless ocean of funny money, it is going to result in all manner of malinvestment and price distortion.

That is why I am hesistant to read too much into any one day's price action. Who the hell knows what we are going to get the next day anymore?

I will make one rather easy prediction however - by the end of the year, we are going to read of a lot more hedge funds going bust. These whipsawing markets are murdering most of them.


  1. Hi Dan,

    I have been reading and throughly enjoying your commentary for quite some time. I work at The Korelin Economics Report - http://www.kereport.com - and would really like to bring you on as a guest on our radio show. Please contact me at fleck@kereport.com when you have a moment.


  2. Dan,
    I hope the hedge funds are getting whipsawed and the less of them the better.

  3. I know we've had nice rally but I'm not buying it. We're starting to rollover at 1350 just as I suspected. Hope longs will harvest their gains while they can, so long as we're in this downtrend any gold positive news will be short lived. JMHP (just my humble prophecy)

  4. If Dan finds the markets difficult, they certainly must be...maybe time for a few days out of the screen and on a relaxing holiday?
    I raised my stop loss already. We are stalling under the Bol20 on a daily scale, I don't see much strength, so as usual, if I take a loss, it will be extremely small. Survive to fight another day.

  5. I covered half my physical hedge at 1328 on Tuesday after pullback on the 1338 spike following the employment data. Gold looks a little tired, and it couldn't hold 1350. Though GDX looks good here, it is about 2 pts equivalent lower than when gold spiked above 1370 after non-taper announcement. I find that interesting.

    I am just a gold owner that worries

    I covered about 40% of my SPY and DIA call options today (market value) at a nice profit. I wanted to book profits, but am concerned this market may just keep sailing higher. The Transports were on fire today, with one new high after another.

    I also took some of my longer dated calls and threw them into some shorter dated stuff. We may see the spoos at 2k next Spring. The worse the data gets the better it is for the markets.Not kidding. Such is the way in endtime Babylon. The dynamics of the markets now find poor numbers a catalyst for higher prices. The Dow should top out at 30k some time in late 2015, when 50% of the pop are on food stamps and the work force participation rate is hovering at about 50-55%.

    How I learned to stop worrying and learn to love the bomb....

  6. Hedge funds ruined?

    What about the reputations of various "gurus"?

    Poor guys like Richard Russell scratching his head in amazement looking at the Dow Transports up 12 days consecutively and then giant gaps up in names like GOOG, CMG, and now AMZN.

    While the last 2 years he has been screeching about the "mother of all tops" in the stock market and telling subscribers to load up on GDX and GDXJ and "forget about it".

    Almost 60 years experience and he got it wrong bigtime near the end of his career.

    And then there are the naysayers over at that un-named website who are still bullhorning about the upcoming "Plunge" or "Collapse" dead ahead yet the market keeps laughing and moves up higher and higher.

    My take is that Chinese stocks will eventually be the biggest financial bubble in recorded history. Just wait until billions of Chinese get their new iPhones and iPads and learn how to start trading stocks instead of playing Pai-Gow.


    1. Yo Mark
      Start your own newsletter, you are obviously smarter than all the others you mention.

    2. Lol at the sinclair hater.

    3. Hey Shoeclerk Hoosier Mark, since we all know you are all loaded up at the March '09 bottom, my simple question is, are you buying all the way up, or just talking all the way up? Take care my son; swb in sparks

    4. Mark,
      I think maybe you are looking at the three-day out "long range" perspective. If you check the ten-year charts for what gold did versus the spx . Or if you check what PRPFX does, you get a better overall picture.

  7. I had a paradigm shift during the budget battle. It was clear the globalists wanted to pump the market, with Schumer, et al, pounding the table to support stocks. He's globalist to the core. I am embarrassed that I am a NYer, and every time he opens his mouth I hear that sardonic, smug NY accent. I left NY, because there are no personal freedoms left, especially downstate. The sad part is that the people there don't care. They wrap themselves in the flag, think about the phony 9/11, and worship govt.

    Anyway, I came to the conclusion that the globalists do not need a "collapse" anymore to bring in the global financial dictatorship. They are purposely keeping asset prices on a higher trajectory, to burn the gloomers out.

    I say it over and over again, the doomers are isolating themselves, and with the psy-op called "backfire" (look that term up on wiki) the gloomers get more and more animated and defensive. They cannot admit they are wrong, so they continue to up the ante. All the while they drive people away. The gloomers and doomers are our worst enemy now, because while they have legitimate concerns, they destroy the ability of those who understand to try to wake others up.

    I guess that by the end of 2015, the doomers will have been driven insane and will be relegated to the trashheap. Having cried too much. The problem with the Cassandra Complex is that while Cassandra ran around crying about the catastrophe and nobody listened, most tend to forget was that she was eventually right.

    The doomers need to quit being stopped clocks, and keep their powder dry, so that when the signs come, they will be taken seriously. By the time equities get finished with this run, they will just be a joke.

    The worst things for preppers are shows like the prepper shows on TV and Nat Geo. They make these people look like fools, which is done by design.

    Face it, the globalists control the markets, and they are not about to collapse things. When we do see the signs, we will know. I am not a rocket scientist, and I saw 2008 coming like a freight train. I was in all cash and gold bullion. Then they were ready to pull the plug. They are not now, especially if Yellen gets in to position. She will lay on the stimulus until the Dow blows off at 30,000.

    Forget economic fundamentals. I have a masters in Economics, and I have learned that this is all a joke. Play it and make money, be in it, but not of it. I am a Bible scholar, and from what I know of eschatology, the antichrist kingdom will bring false hope and prosperity, it didn't say economic collapse, until the bombs started dropping - and that will not happen to at least the end of the decade.

    1. backfire effect -

      The "backfire effect" is a term used to describe how some individuals when confronted with evidence that conflicts with their beliefs come to hold their original position even more strongly:

  8. Eph,
    You write beautifully and are essentially saying what Mark is saying. The collapse will come later. If as you say you see these things in advance with little trouble,be thankful you are so brilliant. I am not but I see problems that are real and disturbing now. Can they play with the stockmarket and watch it go to 30,000 sure, but the problems will be compounding and it will be no fun unless you are a psychopathic one per center who sees nothing wrong with anything because of delusional narcissism. 30,000 may come on the Dow but it could come with civil unrest outside every bankster's mansion and all around the Wall Street.

    Timetables seem foolish to predict the world is getting more and more unhappy by the day. Countries around the world are ready to blow up. Who knows when it will be. Globalists as you call them know this and I bet there are far more nervous than you Eph. They are losing control.

    1. When I use the word "joke," I don't mean it as funny. In fact, I find this all very sad. I personally struggle with all this on a daily basis, being a Bible student. I mean being able to see things and patterns, etc., and understanding evil in high places. This is why I moved away to more remote areas of the country. I understand The Agenda, and what will eventually happen to humanity.

      I spend most my day studying, learning, and expanding my vocabulary and articulation skills, so I can be able to discuss this stuff with others who won't or can't grasp it on their own..

      Unfortunately, much of what the doomers say is correct, but the average guy on the street has no concept of this. All he sees is some guy bloviating and being incorrect.

  9. Anyone read the latest about Andrew Maguire , the famed whistleblower?
    Looks like the guy is a total hoax.

    Why is it so hard to out these guys from the get go?
    Could I make a wild accusation, claim I am a expert trader and get published?
    Would it then take months or years for anyone to bother checking out who I really am?
    This kind of sloppy reporting and journalism has got to stop.

    1. Do you have a LINK about the true revelation of this Andrew Maguire? I may have covered it at www.thenewsunit.com but there is so much involved in this entire gold and silver community that it is rather an exhaustive task. Personally I took quite a bit of heat just for saying silver was dropping lower after it hit that $49 peak and started selling off through the summer and fall of 2011.

      Anyway my list of troublemakers and con artists is rather lengthy but I will not put it down here. All you have to do is use the SEARCH ENGINE in the upper left corner of www.thenewsunit.com and type in "silver community" or "pumpers" or various other key words and phrases to find an absolute wealth of information and articles to substantiate all this sloppy reporting and journalism.

      It took me a while to weed through all of it and even got caught up in listening to some of these guys myself thinking they perhaps had some useful information now and then.

      Dan Norcini's blog here is a great place. It's kind of a refuge for me to at least read some posts with some rational thoughts on market views, news, and even some gentlemanly disagreements.

    2. Muhahahaha...
      This is like a very poorly scripted comedy.
      I never have seen as many con artists in my whole life as in the last two years. All of them somehow attached to gold.
      Gold seems to be attracting all these lying idiots like sharks are attracted to the blood.

    3. Kris; You have to remember the cardinal rule and that is that most investors, speculators, and gamblers are deep down inside, looking to lose, and that is why there is always an ample supply of hucksters and charlatans spinning stories galore; steve in sparks

  10. Kitco I hardly trust either. But Maguire never seemed credible because he was never right.

    1. I don't trust a single one of them anymore, I actually haven't for some time now.
      Nothing but crap and outright lies.

  11. It gets worse,
    Bill Murphy from GATA has admitted that he did not bother checking Maguire's background after he came to GATA with supposed evidence that the Silver market was being manipulated.
    Really Bill ?
    Words cannot describe my disgust.

  12. These allegations are a stake through the heart of all those reporting on this guy. I always thought there was something odd about this guy.

    I'll tell you this much, these findings are gold bearish. Since Christian came out with these allegations today, gold has been dropping like a slow bleed. It is an ad hominem discredit of the whole price suppression scheme. Whether price suppression takes place or not, the argument is now how the people making the claims cannot be trusted either.

    1. I really don't think the players who seriously trade gold take this nonsense into account.

  13. It sickens me that I wasted hours of my life reading the lies of these charlatans.

    1. Consider it as useful investigative study. You'll be able to spot these guys easier if GOLD and SILVER resume their upward run from $300 and $5 in about 30 years. This time around it won't be so parabolic. Am I being sarcastic and satirical again? Sorry...can't help it.

  14. Hi,
    out half of my long at 1346, very small profit simply to compensate the price of the stop loss if it is executed. Now it's win or practically no loss.
    Reason : bah a big one = the Bollinger Bands in daily unit are going nowhere :( they are in a range as well, so the odds are still favoring a bounce down...I thought we would push up because of some other indicators, but we are just still stuck right there...drifting...both in dail and weekly units the Bollinger are in a range, so it's difficult to bet on an "escape" of prices.
    Actually I'd feel safer trying to short the Bol100 daily around 1420 if we go there :)
    But well, at least now I still have a remaining small long line in case we keep going up, and a stop loss to cover just under my feet with very small loss.
    Have a nice day,

  15. on Kitco :
    "Andrew Maguire, presented in the media and on his current employer’s website as a trader with more than 30 years of experience, actually has no real trading experience, alleged CPM’s managing director Jeff Christian during his presentation Thursday at the Silver Summit in Spokane. Rather, Christian said, Maguire’s background is in vehicle car leasing"

    Hmm...come on, Dan.
    Don't you have anything to confess, before they discover that your real job has been in car insurances? And Jim, before they prove that he has no experience in gold whatsoever, as he spent his real life working in a shoe shop? Man, what a scam! You guys are good :)

    1. Hubert;

      The way these markets have been of late, I wish I did have a car insurance business! I might actually make some money for a change!

      Pretty sad if the accusations are valid. My biggest issue with Maquire was and still is his insistence on the gold backwardation nonsense which was simply factually incorrect.

    2. Hi Dan,

      Yes I remember the debate about backwardation and the point you made about it, thanks a lot for your detailed lights about that, especially after Mc Guire claimed we were in physical backwardation and one should mix oranges with lemons...err...maybe he was in the fruit / milkshake business actually? :)

      I sympathize with you about the markets. Must be pretty tough if trading is your main source of revenues. My friend trader I met recently, though living his passion, told me he was relieved to have another main source of revenues, in case anything would go wrong with his trading. So...a hobby farm is the solution, once more!

      I don't know how newbie traders don't realize that they are road pizza if they don't make the protection of their capital their main priority.
      They are fighting with algos which can have a huge impact on short term price directions. They are fighting with pros who use screeners and programmation in order to spot the best / highest probability odds to move in and out, i.e watch 100 markets or more simultaneously thanks to screeners and alarms to make sure they bet always with a pair of aces, against newbie traders who will reraise with unsuited 75 thinking they have a good hand because they read one or two useless TA books.
      I say useless because those books never mention money management usually, plus a few other things I don't like.
      If you find it difficult, I imagine the rest of the stack.
      Maybe it's time to stay out for a while and wait what happens next. I'm for sure taking no risk on my capital at the moment.

      As some mentioned above, I also see markets like SP500 easier to trade than gold at the moment.

    3. " the antichrist kingdom will bring false hope and prosperity,"

      @Eph : do you literally think that some Globalist are part of a, say, satanist movement? No sarcasm here, just asking.

    4. Hubert;

      Yes, so many of these markets are trendless that they are next to impossible to trade unless one just grabs very small profits very quickly. The S&P is one of the few well behaved markets. Heck, even those markets that trend experience violent intraday reversals at times only to reverse on a dime the next day. It is really quite maddening.

      I am trading very small right now so at to try to keep losses at a minimum. the only problem with that is that it also keeps profits at a minimum as well! It is more of a survival mode to be honest because I do not want to be a casualty of these screwed up markets. At some point we will get some decent trends in other markets besides the equities. There are a few out there now but unfortunately some of those I do not trade as I do not have the knowledge of the fundamentals that I need to have in order to approach a market that I am going to trade in.

      good luck in there also... stay safe...

    5. Hubert,
      There are many things, trends, events, etc, coming together. The demographic shifts and mass psychological patterns I am observing are telling me that we are being set up for something forever life altering. The patterns of a dialectic process, long underway for generations seem to be culminating, and within the decade we will see its results. It won't be pretty either.

      Why are the markets acting "insane?" Because the people running them are insane... to you and me, but they have different objectives. I think they want to bring us a false sense of hope prosperity, and they have conditioned us to look to equities for confirmation of their objectives. The owners, however, worship a different god, and do not think like you and me. Most think that the markets were just an organic result and manifested in an adhoc sort of way. I see them differently. Basically, we are all players on the field and spectators in the stadium. But who built the stadium? Who owns the teams?

      I leave that up to each person to figure that one out.

      Now. go out there and play it hard and make as much money as you can for as long as we can. And, please, don't get injured. :)

  16. It's funny. I wrote an email to someone saying that I thought Andrew Maguire wasn't telling the truth and was potentially making stuff up. This was this past April. I have MAJOR ISSUES with people that make claims, without any proof, and continue on as a stated fact. Apparently, Not many can tell the truth and not many know how to vet people anymore (look at our CIC) . I like reading Dan, Yra Harris, Greg Hunter, and Jim Sinclair. People can say what they want about Jim Sinclair, but he will be proven right soon, IMO. His one bad "low is in" call does not deserve the ridicule it has gotten. Also, if you had listened to him through, you would still have the metals, and you would be averaging down (or up if you had been listening soon enough) and preserving your wealth.

  17. This comment has been removed by the author.

    1. "His one bad "low is in" call does not deserve the ridicule it has gotten."

      Are you sure it was one???
      Beside it's not the number of bad calls but how they were made that matters.
      If he did not make his calls in such arrogant way people would not ridicule him as much as they do.

    2. I am not sure of much any more, other than I know we are being misled, lied to, and there are very few honest people out there. I do know that his ADVICE has been pretty sound. Certainly buying a hobby farm, eliminating counter-party risk (as best you can), becoming self-reliant, becoming your own central bank, taking certificate forms of stock, direct registration, etc, are ALL very good things and are not bad at all. Sure, you may miss out on stock run ups, you may miss out on stock collapses as well.

      He did say the PM markets would be manipulated to a point where even the most ardent gold bugs would be tempted to sell as the pain would be unbearable...

    3. An educational video about how con men work:


      Sadly it makes a perfect sense. Especially if you were ever burned by their advises. Most of the investment advisers have no idea how to invest. They make a living from what you pay to them and what you buy from them.
      The famous Casey Research is a perfect example. I was a subscriber to their newsletter for 1 year. If i only lost the money which i paid for the subscription I would be a happy. They have no f%"=g idea what they are doing. They use the same scare tactics which are mentioned in the video to get subscribers.
      These so called investment advisers truly work in gangs. Wherever you turn you hear the same advice so you think if so many expert are saying the same thing it must be true (and of course they make references to each others). Well, its not. They just learned from the jackals that team work is much more effective than hunting alone. They are not investment experts in the first place. They are experts in marketing and conning.

    4. "He did say the PM markets would be manipulated to a point where even the most ardent gold bugs would be tempted to sell as the pain would be unbearable..."

      It might be just another psychological tactic to motivate you to buy gold at every low it makes. Might be not. I don't know his exact motives. The only thing I know that he has been consistently wrong lately. I am very suspicious now with every statement like this with a good reason. There are a lot of people out there who wants to con you so must take every statement with a pinch of salt.
      There is a massive resistance for gold around 1500. I would be very surprised if that is going to be taken out anytime soon. We need a significant inflation or a big war for that to happen. The war is more likely because all the money printed is going into the hands of a few already rich people. More likely to have one more rally up to the 1450-1500 region and than see new lows. This is just my opinion of course so might be totally wrong.

    5. Kris,

      I agree with what you are saying. However, Jim Sinclair has advised hobby farm, elimination of counter-party risk, BEFORE EVER BUYING GOLD. He has never received one dime from me. His best advice is free. He posts things/news FREE OF CHARGE on JS MIneset. Sure, he probably makes some money off the ads on his site, but who doesn't? Sure, he makes money off his compendiums, but that is a lifelong set of work for him, and I have no issues with someone wanting to get compensated for their work.

      If you read JS Mineset, you will notice he discussed QE to infinity before anyone else that I know of, he warned of banking fraud continuing, he warned of the atrocities going on in the system. Even before Snowden came out. ALL these things are VERY REAL. While he has been wrong ON PRICE, I think if one were to ignore the fundamentals behind what he is saying, they will find themselves on the "wrong side of the lifelong trade".

      I could be wrong, Jim could be wrong, but so what if he is? You will still have a nice hobby farm (being self-sufficient), in a great location, have real assets, and in my case, live happily with a great family (Lord willing).

      Read up on the Exchange Stabilization Fund, and I think you will see why his GOTS is a good idea, and also see why Traders like Dan, Hubert du Haut, and other extremely knowledgable folks are having a tough time in these markets. The underlying reason is, these are no longer free markets run by the thoughts and reason of man. They are run by algorithms (FACT) and an entity that has UNLIMITED funds (speculation of ESF). Therefore, when the WORLD is in competition to stabilize their individual currencies/commodities AND they all have the ability to print (albeit the US has the only means of reserve status) they are all vying for STABILITY. This puts the whipsawing in action that we see as each country needs a different price action to stabilize. THERE IS NO WAY, IMO, to trade these markets (unless you are a gambler like me!) as there is way too much uncertainty in the world.

      This, IMO, is why there will be a currency reset in the not-too-distant-future. Too many countries manipulating currencies in a race to the bottom. When this goes bust, the international powers that be will have to come up with another agreement to make global trade work. Or a war will break out.

  18. "by the end of the year, we are going to read of a lot more hedge funds going bust. These whipsawing markets are murdering most of them."

    Well than a few of them will become mega rich. All that loss will be a gain to somebody else. Obviously only the smartest (best computer technology in this case) ones will survive. I assume the future will be even darker when only a few mega players are moving the markets.

  19. http://i41.tinypic.com/2rhwfia.jpg

    Here's why I sold 50% of my position quickly with a symbolic profit.
    123MACD or double divergence price vs MACD...better be careful.
    Now prices are not collapsing either, so they may eventually keep going higher...don't have a clue, so I simply keep the rest of my position with a target around 1400+ and a stop loss near 1330.

  20. I think you guys are being a bit tough on the poor goldbugs. I think there are a lot of good people that advocate physical gold ownership out there but the problem is they never took the time to understand how the gold market works. The simple meme that JoeSixPack would lose faith in the $USD based monetary system and buy a few gold coins and somehow this would catapult the $POG to insane heights was never hashed out very well. Instead of trying to deepen their level of understanding the goldbug crowd took the easy way out: Blame the evil BANKSTERZ! The reality is gold is traded (and treated) like any other commodity and if you have read or listened to Dan Norcini enough you would understand these markets don't follow a script. IMHO there has never been a better time to own (save in) physical gold or a worse time to trade it like a commodity. This is where my level of understanding has taken me. I think the $USD based monetary system is nearing the end of it's timeline. That is why CB's have been accumulating gold. Eph's globalists may be conspiring to prop the system up but if so they are buying time to transition to a new one.

    1. "That is why CB's have been accumulating gold"

      Classic statement I would use to beleive, but today I would ask for a credible source. And obviously it would not be Maquire.

    2. Google is your friend (and he is watching).

  21. slowly moving out??
    But...the chart shows UP, or I must be getting old...

  22. Gold bugs simply cannot get a break. GDX/GLD ratio rolling over again and cannot seem to get above .20.

    Meanwhile, names like AMZN are powering up 10%+ today, that company makes no money, yet it has gone from $60 to $360 since 2009.

    Anyone telling you to "get out" and go hide in the bunker probably has yet to suffer the wrath of thousands of disgruntled followers, but it will happen eventually.

    Never before have I ever seen so much fear mongering which has kept people in gold way too long and kept the same people out of the tremendous opportunity to make a fortune investing in common stocks.

    I would not be here harping in it, if at least one or two of these so-called "acclaimed experts" would simply man up and admit they made a horrific mistake in their forecast and apologized for their error.

    But no, the "Clown Circus" continues on and on.


    1. Mark go after the "acclaimed expert" and harp on it with him. Why hold us hostage to you personal vendettas? You have made you point over and over and over. There is something to it but the point has been made.

    2. Mark

      Seriously ? do really think that by posting on this blog someone like Eric Sprott et al is going to break down and apologize...here..on Dan's website?
      Get over it Mark

    3. "Meanwhile, names like AMZN are powering up 10%+ today, that company makes no money, yet it has gone from $60 to $360 since 2009."

      There is little reason to what Mark writes and he knows it, concord. I think Mark is the clown. He wont be around to apologize after the market crashes and amazon is back to where it came from.

  23. Here's an article on Gold Propaganda Armstrong posted last night. Cover some of the stuff we've been talking about above, including backwardation. At this point you gotta beleive the guy. He became unpopular saying gold would decline to 1150, but was spot on. Like the old saying goes telling the truth never makes one popular at a cocktail party:


  24. Everyone load up on silver, the bullion blog says there's a shortage.

    Silver Shortage taking place right now? - Video


  25. Prophet

    You're kidding...right ?

    1. Sarcasm. Just threw out something I saw this morning that I had a chuckle over. Sadly, several months ago I likley would have bought it hook line and sinker. Mind you this is posted by a handle called "Silver Gold" - boy have we learned a lot lately.

  26. Prophet

    I know what you mean. I always did view much of this with a wary eye so I never got crazy about going all in etc.
    But still...I can't believe that so many still post that kind of drivel.
    As Armstrong has said, we needed this correction to really shake the nut cases out of the trees. I still keep my guard up on Armstrong...he too may be very very wrong some day. Nobody is perfect.

  27. Everyone is wrong sometimes. I just tend to be more wrong:(. One thing I know is that there is NO SHORTAGE of physical gold/silver. You can buy all you want at APMEX, Kitco, and every other salesperson from Monex, Rosland, Lear, Goldline, etc...

    However, there was no shortage of .22LR ammo either, until the loons in Washington started to talk about taking people's rights away....

    Not many people I know own ONE oz of silver OR gold. Leaves a lot of demand on the sidelines should the Black Swan decide to go fishing in this land.

    1. Walmart is purposely keeping their ammunition stock in the stock room and they fill the glass display somewhere between 5 and 7AM in most stores. Then the hoarders come in early and buy most of it out and the cycle repeats the very next day. The weird thing is they are rationing it to 3 boxes per day per person and they have to escort you to the service desk to buy it. Most of the ammunition that's being hoarded now is .22LR, .17, .223, .40, .45, some 9mm and the AK-47 ammo.

      Another thing is where I live they cleaned out all the guns after Sandy Hook even took the glass displays out. Now they are all back but they don't have the good AR-15's anymore only the generic models. Hard to find Colts.

    2. Interesting Weather Unit
      The Fed's don't take your guns away...they just have to take away your ammo.
      I would be willing to bet that Walmart gleefully hands over the security photos of every single buyer to the Federalies.
      Land of the Free ? NOT !

    3. Funny you should mention that. Over the last year or so I have noticed a large increase in the number of those ceiling cameras in every Walmart. Never before were there so many security cameras on the inside of the store. On the outside they have those prison style cameras. Kind of creepy looking actually.

      In fact if anyone has ever been to a casino compare all those cameras in the casino to the ones in Walmart. They are about the same amount now.

      I've been asking about their security division and where it's located. I almost got an answer a time or two but you have to get at least some manager who might know. I'm eventually going to find out something but my guess is there are security centers all over the U.S.A. and growing. Perhaps they have a Walmart sector in that NSA SPY CENTER.

      It's my conspiratorial mind at work. :-) I have to quit listening to INFOWARS once they hire George Hemminger. He's heading there this weekend and next.

      People are going to find out that these GOLD and SILVER pumpers (not everyone but many) are a large group involved in all manner of mischief on YOU TUBE and various websites.
      Not that it matters but there is so much destructive entertainment out there it's hard to sift through and find any credible news.

  28. I now know of only one other person who has any physical or even has shares in the miners.
    Everyone has capitulated that I know of in my circle of friends. They have all lost money.
    They will never ever again buy a gold related item.
    Can't say as I blame them.
    You can imagine how I feel as I was partly responsible for turning them on to many of the bogus soothsayers and websites that we now all love to hate.

    1. Dean,
      You are being bitter, and that's understandable.
      But if they sold because they "lost money" (which they did only because they actually sold at a given time), they were not buying gold for the right reason in the first place.
      They mixed insurance and profit.
      I hope you kept some of your physical gold and will find comfort someday if gold prices do rise to 3000 $...

    2. Dean,
      This reminds me of how I miss Harry Browne, his newsletter and his books. Harry Browne was one of the founders of the Permanent Portfolio Fund - PRPFX - which is a balanced mutual fund which rebalances once-per-year, holding 20% gold bullion, some silver bullion, Warrants of US stocks (warrants are a way to leverage), Zero Coupon Treasuries (leveraging the bond), some Swiss bonds, and some Resource stocks (oil etc.) & REITs.

      Harry was acclaimed for having "called the top" in the silver market back in (I do not even know what year that was - was it in the 1970's?). But he always said that he was just lucky to have sent out a "take profits" order because it had gone up so much.

      PRPFX (or your own recipe) is such a good way to invest and own insurance in physical gold bullion. In the recent years of gold debacle with soaring US stocks, PRPFX has been essentially flat. In the 2008 collapse of all markets, it was down 20%. But overall, it averages 7% per year over the decades. Nice way to set and forget your retirement money.

  29. Maybe next week if gold and silver dont have to start from so far down just to get to even, maybe a 14 handle is even possible.

  30. Well boys we thought yesterdays action in gold looked weak and expecting a drop today. Instead it looked strong today - which means it should drop Monday???
    Yep trading this stuff ain't what it use to be.

    1. Prophet,
      Consider a savvy guy like you lamenting the great disappointment that some in gold and silver are not honest. What a shock for you? We know that the people trying to short gold and silver, and the behavior by the investment banks has been so exemplary. What a stain on pro-gold camp?

    2. Concord and Prophet

      Armstrong (and others) have said that once the Bull market in gold starts again no one will believe it and will sell on every rally, very few will get to enjoy the ride.
      This is much the same for the DOW, the most hated rally in history, few believed it could happen like it has.
      Armstrong is saying the time is not yet right...however...he does change his outlooks according to price/time action.
      Do you want my opinion?
      I have not the faintest idea....does that help?

  31. News Flash !
    Apparently (I have not verified sources etc) George Soros has stated he will back Hillary Clinton in the next Presidential race.
    Time to be afraid..very afraid.
    My own opinion...George Soros is an evil son of a B>>>>> !!

  32. Hubert Du HautOctober 24, 2013 at 10:59 PM
    " the antichrist kingdom will bring false hope and prosperity,"

    @Eph : do you literally think that some Globalist are part of a, say, satanist movement? No sarcasm here, just asking.

    Two verses that will answer this:
    And through his policy (the antiCrist) also he shall cause craft to prosper in his hand; and he shall magnify himself in his heart, and by peace shall destroy many: he shall also stand up against the Prince of princes; but he shall be broken without hand. Daniel 8:25

    And I stood upon the sand of the sea, and saw a beast rise up out of the sea, having seven heads and ten horns, and upon his horns ten crowns, and upon his heads the name of blasphemy. Rev 13:1

    I like The Bible Knowledge Commentary for your own study.



    www.ExploreChristianity.com has something worth watching.

  33. next week, WHEN gold tests 1355, this time it will power through and go visit 1375.....whenever 1375 is breached, its off to 1445 and then beyond....i dont know how long all that will take but i do like the zoomed out (8 hour) gold chart...and again, forget any 1000, 1179, even perhaps even 1240 level forever...just my drunk optimism! :D

    1. Hey P Wood
      I'm into my third vodka soda...hmmm...everything seems so clear to me now.

  34. With very few dollars going into buying health insurance, and trillions will be going out by the government, the 17 trillion debt will seem like chump change. Whoever thought that QE was ever going to stop is badly mistaken. 85 billion a month is not even close to what will be needed. I know how much Obama has ruined this country, but now everyone else will find out. A clown in the white house, and that gives clowns a bad name.

  35. By the way, for all you Armstrong fans.
    My Nephew has a Phd in Byzantine History. I have had him vet some of Martin's articles on Rome etc.
    He is a master of cycles but some of his historic analysis is not so masterful.
    Always be careful everyone.

  36. I know we cross paths with many things on the internet, but here is an eye opening vid on "gold pumpers" as they call them, includes some insight on Alex Jones too:


    "While they keep telling you fiat currencies are worthless and will collapse they are stock piling US dollars paid to them by gold dealers"


    1. Alex always talks about how he is so shocked how the "establishment" allows him to stay on the air. I submit to you that he and his type do the globalists a great favor by discrediting his movement. They want him on the air. He deflects and discredits.

      The longer the markets and system keeps afloat, the more he and his followers look like fools and are marginalized. This is why I say repeatedly to stop listening to the doomers and gloomers and understand that while they may be correct eventually, listeners to this sensationalized trash will be so burned out that by the time stuff does happen these people will be broke financially, spiritually, physically, and mentally. Their wives and children would have foresaken them, and theey will be isolated and insane.

      KEEP YOUR POWDER DRY, and understand reality.

      Remember the term "backfire." I admitted I was wrong, we all need to admit it and get on. However, always have one eye on the abyss as we walk by. OK. How do I play equities? I see the directional move, so I own a boatload of call options on SPYs and few on DIAs. I don't even play the QQQs, as they are very volatile.

      Alex and the "patriot" movement will be on the air all the way until the bombs drop on DC, doing their followers untold harm in the process.

      I follow people like Joel Skousen. He says these events will come, but there is time to do what we need to do. He says if collapse comes the globalists will get the blame. That will cause them to lose control. The UDFed will not withdraw stimulus and cause a collapse. They will get blamed for it. People will stop paying taxes, and riot, etc. Only global war gets them out of this. History repeats, except the US will be the villian.

      I don't even waste my time voting. I remain objective, with my biblically-based moral compass intact. I have no opinions, just observations.

    2. I read an article recently where Obama was replacing some top military chiefs. One of them was in charge of the Northern Plain ICBM, constisting of 450 ballistic missiles.
      If I remember, each missile contains several tactical warheads, 20 years ago guided by MIRV and nowadays god knows what.
      I'm not considering all the tactical warheads, IRBM, SRBM, weapons launched from nuclear submarines, nor Strategic nuclear bombers...I mean if Washington is bombed, logically, there would be a world war 3 with massive nuclear strikes all over the world.
      Even if radiations don't kill everyone, the nuclear winter that would come as a consequence probably would.
      I mean one more time, imho, there would be no winners in this scenario. Globalists would rule mice and cockroaches from the depths of their bunkers...


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