"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


Thursday, December 29, 2011

Silver holding at critical $26 level

Silver has been the on the receiving end of the risk aversion trades and as noted in a previous post has been badly lagging gold in terms of performance.

It ended last year (2010) at $28.01. As of this writing, it is currently trading near $27.74, down, but just barely on the year. Compare that to Gold which is currently trading near $1547, and remains up for the year at about 8% or so.

This being said, Silver had held on the charts exactly at the former spike low near the $26 level which it made after plunging from near $45 in late September of this year. This is a key level which needs to hold to prevent deeper losses which could threaten to take the metal down closer to $21 - $20 before it would bottom. Today's performance by the bulls, in bringing the metal sharply off its session low, is an outstanding effort. However, to get out of the woods and move past the danger stage, they now need to take the price ABOVE $30 and hold it there. That would confirm a bottom on the chart. It would not however confirm a bull trend is about to emerge but only that the severe selling has run its course. To get a solid uptrend signal, the grey metal woudl need to take out $35.50 on a weekly closing basis.

We'll see what we get in tomorrow's trading session to end the year. Perhaps the bulls can push the metal into the plus column for the year. That would take a close over $28. Let's see if they are up to the challenge.


  1. Hi Dan, I was wondering if your $28.01 2010 closing price for silver is correct? I seem to be finding that silver closed 2010 in the $30 range.

  2. Silverwood -

    thanks much for noting that. I mistakenly took the LOW price of the month of December and not the Closing price which was $30.93. I appreciate your bringing this to my notice and apologize for the oversight on my part.

    I will note it on the Silver chart this afternoon and bring that correction to the folk's attention.

    Happy New Year

  3. The bulls had to be disturbed from their vacation to snap up some bargains. They left this afternoon, and as general markets deterioriated, the cartel stepped on the gas. Combined with tax loss selling... well you get the rest.

    The reversal is in. I've gone long in a large way for the 2012 opening.

  4. Now we know where the EU banks are deploying that fresh ECB cash - in the stock markets. And they only deployed a little bit of it too! Should keep things rolling into next week.

    I firmly believe the reversal is in, at least through the beginning of the first week of 2012. PM's were oversold and manipulated large during the light volume holidays. The action was palpable at 1580/28.40 today, and if the general markets could have held up, the price would have held too. Somebody has been there large shorting the dollar (i.e. Fed/PPT), but were noticably absent today. Crowded trade on the short side, don't fight the Fed. Fed wants 1.30 to 1.31, that seems to be a number that works well.

    Personally though, I think you want to be out before the S&P debt downgrade on Friday, if those spreads don't come in by Wednesday in a significant way. Cartel will be regrouping early in the week for a raid next week on Friday's news (if it comes). Let's hope the specs can push it up for at least a few days first and squeeze those cockroaches out.


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