"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


Monday, October 17, 2011

Same Play - Different Act

Gold has once again failed to sustain its footing for any length of time above the critical $1680 resistance level. Last Friday it managed to eke out a close above this level but just barely. "Just barely" does not constitute a convincing technical breakout so it had the opportunity to try to be more emphatic in today's session.

As trade moved into early European trade, the gold price took off to the upside buoyed by comments out of the G20 summit that seemed to indicate decisive action and timely action was going to occur in Europe in regards to their bank recapitalization/stability mechanism plan. It moved up towards $1700 on strong buying which then evaporated as comments out of Germany throw a bucket of cold water on the hopes of traders/investors that the bureaucrats were going to follow through on intentions expressed at the summit.

Down went gold along with silver and along with the stock markets. Up went the Dollar; up went the long bond and down went the Euro and the commodity currencies. Once more it was, "RISK OFF" and so back to the same old same ol'.

It certainly did not aid the case of the bulls in the metals to look over at the HUI and observe it disintegrating as it failed to even touch the 560 level, a level which it MUST better to get anything exciting going to the upside. It dropped back down towards support at 540 and managed a squeaker of a close above there but if it loses that level, it is going to fade towards the lower end of the range near 520 to see if any buyers will emerge there.

Silver once again stumbled at the $32.50 level and dropped back into the trading range which continues to confine it. As expected when the risk trades are being yanked, silver underperformed gold in today's session. That will continue as long as RISK AVERSION is in vogue.


  1. So, is the good news we are in a sideways market while awaiting for Euro stabilization folks to see the writing on the wall and crank up the printing presses?

    As always, thank you Dan!

  2. Isn't it worth mentioning that the futures market during late asian and european morning trading actual had gold trading almost at $1700 and silver near $33?

  3. AG - is not that exactly what I wrote in regards to gold... please see the above comments more carefully. Second paragraph... "in early European trade"..."up towards $1,700".

    I know a very good eye doctor who can help you with some quality reading glasses. :o)

    Silver faded when gold faded on the same news out of Germany

  4. Dan,
    What is important is to see Asian trading UP after the close in N.Y (and this is happening very often). This is, I think, a sign of what will happen in the future...Wall Street (and London) will be left in the dust while Hong Kong will set up the real value of gold. This is what the Chinese are trying to set up and with the kind of cash they have I guess I know who the winner will be!!

  5. Looks like the end for gold and silver. I wonder how this will all be addressed in upcoming commentaries? It will be interesting to see how this all plays out when gold drops below $1,000 and silver to the TEENS. Yikes! I should have sold the junk coin collection. Or maybe sell it now? I priced it when silver was up in the 40's and I could have netted some cash. I ended up just leaving it sit just like it has the past two generations.

    I'm short with ZSL right now but that thing doesn't work as well as it should. Otherwise I'm waiting for the stock market to take the S&P500 back down to 666. That's where I believe it's going! Mark this post.


  6. Silver is at $31.00 right now. I think it will hit $21.00 by Thanksgiving. By Christmas it could be close to $10.00.
    At least that's not looking at uncharted territory. I think there's less error that way.

  7. Wow, weather unit? Have you looked at a Long Term Gold and/or Silver Chart in your life? Yes, Gold and Silver can both correct here. Very powerful runs from 1250 to 1900 for gold. It may very well drop back to mid 1400's. Silver to 23. After that, how does it drop when the alchemists double the number of our dollars, Euros, yuans, yens? No Weather Unit, most of us are definitely long gold, silver. But there is reason behind our bullish outlook. Why is it you see drop of gold to 1,000. Reason with me a little?

  8. White Wolf, I don't think Weather UNIT has any grounds for his claims. If he wants to short gold and silver let him.

  9. Did anyone see the PPI this morning. Wow. .8%
    Analysts projected .2%. CPI the increases are now headed your way and inflation is definitely going up. Media Market Watch no story on it at all. Usually they are out touting no inflation, no inflation. Well it is now 9:20 AM and the number came out at 9:00 and still NO STORY. Travesty that the media is so damn obvioulsy pro Cartel. Dan, how do you like those apples. No story at all on oncoming inflation from Market Watch.

  10. Marc Faber mentioned it gold could touch 1100$ and stay in the bull trend. But this weather guy must be a drone from the governments cause he sounds like he is going C-R-A-Z-Y!!! Lol

  11. Yes, Market Watch has spent all day with headlines about Gold dropping. The Street has Gold gettting "Clobbered". Amazing world we live in when the Central Bankers of the world utilize these media outlets to attempt, I MEAN ATTEMPT to justify their phony balony jobs (Blazing Saddles , Mel Brooks). Anyhow, it will happen soon enough. Just hang in, keep my head down, and wait for that moment in time when the stars line up and the 2012 Gold Rush begins. I will be sitting on the Sell button when it hits....3,000. nah.. wait till it goes to 4,000 an ounce and Ron Paul is President.

  12. i have a M.S. in Meteorology....i know the weather.......Weather Unit----you are NO weather unit.

  13. With today's action in the HUI, it looks like we are going down to retest the recent lows. :(

  14. boatman and White Wolf you just want to argue with me here about how smart you are in gold, silver, and weather. I'll let you be legends in your own mind as arguments about economic opinions are the fruit of foolish men.

    Just watch the RED CANDLESTICKS here at this link over the next few days:


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