"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


Monday, March 21, 2011

US Dollar update

As has been the pattern over the last view trading sessions, the US Dollar has become the whipping boy for the global forex trading crowd.

Today is was strength in the Euro which sent it lower. Talk is picking up that the next move in regards to interest rates by the ECB will be to raise them. That contrasts sharply with the situation around the US Dollar where rates will remain low for the immediate future.

Given this fact, it is difficult to make a case for the Dollar right now as it moves ever closer to a long term inflection point on the charts. It is sitting only a mere 40-45 points from this support level with the RSI not yet in oversold territory. That alone is rather foreboding.

Each blip higher in the Dollar has kept the RSI in a defined downtrend as indicated by the inability to break the downtrend line shown on that indicator.
Simply put, there is currently no strength in the Dollar. Keep in mind this is taking place against a backdrop where the Yen is being kept weak. Imagine where the Dollar would be had not the G7 intervention taken place?

I also happen to believe that is one of the reasons that made it easy for the G7 to agree to a round of coordinated intervention. It might have also been to help the Dollar also! Had the Yen not been taken down, the Dollar would have crashed through a major support level.

1 comment:

  1. Great point Dan! Will be interesting to see if the dollar can generate any kind of a bounce at support- things could get ugly quickly if it does not.


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