Big Jump in Federal Reserve MBS Debt Purchases

After questioning last week where the Fed's QE3 had gone, it seems as if we got an answer this week. This afternoon's report on the Fed Balance Sheet shows a sharp increase in Mortgage-Backed Securities holdings on their Balance Sheet, $37 Billion to be exact.

Keep in mind that the Fed had announced monthly purchases of $40 billion in MBS debt each and every month so it looks like they just made a big chunk of that for November.

Based on what I am seeing in the US equity markets, that $40 billion is not going to do much good as the stock market continues reeling from the election results, the upcoming fiscal cliff and the woes in the Euro Zone.

Gold Lower but Holding Above Support

Considering what looks more like a non-stop avalanche of selling in the mining sector, the yellow metal is holding relatively well. It has bounced off the first level of support shown on the price chart that comes in very near to the $1700 level.

Failure to remain above this level will allow the market to move lower towards the $1680 region where it can be expected to find some buying support.

To get the least bit of excitement going, gold will have to clear $1740 and remain above that level before it rattles anyone other than the most short-term bears.

Today, a story out of the financial press indicated that demand for Gold had fallen somewhat over the 3rd quarter. The World Gold Council indicated a drop of 11% over the same period last year. That seemed to spook some buyers. Throw in the fact that crude oil was lower, in spite of the simmering tensions in Israel (crude stocks are building significantly due to the pathetic condition of the economy), and any fears of inflation took a back seat today.

It also did not help the cause of the metal with the S&P 500 continuing to reel under selling pressure. Today was not a good day for Apple and that set the tone for most of the market.

We'll see how the metal closes out the week tomorrow.

Ron Paul Comments on the Secession Movement

God bless this man!


Ron Paul: The Founders Believed in Secession
“Secession is what we did when we left England, it was a wonderful thing”


Paul Joseph Watson
Infowars.com
November 15, 2012
Congressman Ron Paul reacted to the secessionist movement sweeping America today by reminding people that the United States seceded from the British empire, while slamming those who suggested their fellow Americans should be deported merely for talking about the idea.

http://www.infowars.com/ron-paul-the-founders-believed-in-secession/

Ron Paul's Farewell Speech on the Floor of the House of Representatives

All lovers of liberty should take the time to listen to Dr. Paul's final speech on the floor of the US House of Representatives. I sincerely doubt I will ever see his likes again but one can always hope against hope. His commitment to liberty is indisputable. Perhaps his son will pick up the banner in 2016.

I cannot but feel a deep sense of loss at a principled man who served his country and his citizens and somehow managed to keep alive his principles in the midst of that moral cesspool on the Potomac.

You may not agree with all of this views but at least you knew exactly where he stood and WHY.

The speech is a bit long for we in this generation whose attention span barely exceeds that of a gnat but grab a cup of coffee or a cup of tea and tune in to hear someone who makes sense and really means it!

Pay close attention to Dr. Paul's comments on the home schooling movement and how it is the remedy for the future generation  of lovers of liberty. The government controlled public school system is responsible for the economic and political ignorance that now has the current generation firmly in its grasp.



http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/11/14/ron-pauls-farewell-speech-video/

HUI Chart UPDATE

This is the evening chart update of the HUI after it was further shellacked during the afternoon hours of today's trading session when the S&P 500 broke down through its technical chart support level.

As you can see on the updated chart, the HUI has one level of chart support left before it retraces the entirety of its move higher from the late June/early July rally.

S&P 500 Drops through Support

The S&P 500 was attempting to hold near the low formed last week that came on the heels of the post-election collapse in the US stock markets.

It just so happens that the low was in the very near vicinity to the critical 50% Fibonacci Retracement Level of the entire rally of the late May/early June swing low.

It bounced away from that level yesterday but today, down it went.

The index is now poised to drop all the way to the next Fibonacci retracement level, the 61.8% level, or the 1340-1344 region.

Failing to hold there, it should retrace the entirety of the rally meaning that we could very well be looking at a drop through the 1300 level on down towards 1275 or lower.

The onus is now on the bulls to hold the next level of support at 1340 if they have any chance of regaining the near term advantage, which clearly lies with the bears.

HUI Under Intense Selling Pressure

EVer since Newmont and Barrick reported "less than stellar" earnings, (and that is being generous with my choice of words), the mining sector has not been able to shrug off the selling pressure coming from both disappointed bulls as well as opportunistic bears.

The technical posture of the market has deteriorated but if the index is able to stay above the former downsloping trend line which it took out in early September, the long term bulls will be okay.

It is not uncommon to see a market breach a trendline and then come back to retest it before moving higher. If we get such a test, it will prove whether or not the resolve of the bulls remains intact and whether they still see the mining sector as the strong value that they did a couple of months ago. I think it is an obvious statement that the Newmont and Barrick news shook their confidence in a big way.

There is a bit of chart support near 448. If that cannot stem the bleeding in the sector, the most likely target for the next support region arises near 440.

The problem that the sector has right now is that the disappointing earnings numbers, combined with strong weakness across the broader US equity markets, have given rise to that infernal ratio spread trade of the hedge funds, a trade which I might add has proven to be wildly successful for them even as it has produced massive frustration among the long-term oriented holders of these companies. It has also produced dramatic UNDERVALUATION of the shares in selective companies at times. This looks to be once again developing with the stubborn refusal of the Comex gold and silver markets to follow the shares lower.

This dichotomy between the shares and the metals cannot go on indefinitely however so something will eventually give. Either the metals will follow the shares lower or the shares are going to rebound.

given the fact that the S&P 500 is flirting dangerously with a critical support level, it is going to take a near Herculean effort on the part of the mining sector bulls to drive these share prices back higher. If we do get one of these "miraculous" rebounds in the S&P 500, especially in the last hour of trading, I would look for selling pressure on the mining shares to dissispate.

Secession Petitions Now Number over 610,000 Signatures

I will try to keep posting an occasional tally of the number of signatures on the ever-growing list of states from which secession petitions have been submitted.

Based on the rate of increase (Texas is closing in on the 100,000 mark), I suspect we will be up near one million before the week is out.