HUI Showing some Signs of Stability

The mining shares are attracting value-based buying which is providing some signs of stability in this beaten-down sector. As mentioned many times on this site, it will require far more than value-based buying to take this sector strongly higher. For that to occur, it requires momentum based traders.

Just take a look at the broader equity markets and you can see what happens when these momentum buyers decide to chase prices higher.

While we might have stem the downside in the mining shares, this sector needs to prove itself technically in order to give some potential buyers the confidence that this is just not a pause before a new leg lower.

For that to occur, buyers will have to show enough conviction to take the index into the gap region shown on the price chart. They will not only need to spike it into that gap, but hold it there on a close for a bare minimum. If they can do that, it should give some bears second thoughts about hanging around excessively long and overstaying some successful trades in the mining sector.

A CLOSE above the top of the gap, near the 300 level, should bring in some momentum based buyers as it will induce some additional short covering.

I want to continue to reiterate the necessity of these mining shares to improve their technical chart pattern before the gold market can sustain any sort of extended move higher. The shares led the metal lower and more than likely they will lead the turn in the metal higher. I would also suggest monitoring holdings in the ETF, GLD, to see if investors are returning to gold.

Moving over to gold itself, I am detailing a 2 hour chart as it establishes some areas of technical interest for us. After the wild volatility of last week, we are finally seeing some signs of a market that is settling down and beginning to act in a more "civilized" fashion. By that I mean it is not swinging all over the place.

Along that line, the Gold Volatility Index, has been dropping also. It is currently trading near 21.80 after having spiked as high as 35. That confirms that the recent bout of volatility (emotional duress) is behind us for the time being.

Back to the chart - what concerns me about gold is that the strong physical demand has been able to spook some bears (Goldman cancelled its sell recommendation) but has not yet been enough to bring back those investment types that were flooding into the gold ETFs around the world and the mining shares.

The other question I have is whether or not this physical demand is going to keep up its torrid pace if prices continue to drift higher. Gold under $1400 was certainly cheap but will buyers around the globe see it that way if it climbs back towards $1470 or higher? That remains unclear.

What I believe is the more likely outcome of this is that a floor has been established in the gold market below $1390 but there is not enough investor type demand from large players to drive the market sharply higher. The outcome then is most likely a period of range bound trading with both sides looking to either sell rallies or buy dips depending on their bias towards the market.

Right now, the top of the range is near $1440. Selling is entering near this level and bullish enthusiasm is fading as the market moves higher based on the shrinking volume. With volume low, bears feel confident selling against this level since they have some wiggle room to play with the $1450 psychological level as a mental stop out point. That is a relatively favorable trade in their minds since the risk is small compared to the potential for a drift back towards $1400 and perhaps lower.

Bulls on the other hand will more than likely feel comfortable buying in near those same levels figuring that physical demand will be their ally. They do need to take the price through $1440 very soon or they are going to face some desertion in their army from the shorter term oriented day traders and scalpers.

As far as today goes, the strong pop in crude oil that has taken it above the $90 mark, along with a bit of strength across the commodity sector, most notably copper, is giving gold a boost, especially with a bit of weakness being seen in the US Dollar.

It is going to be very interesting to see if the Asian demand that we have been seeing overnight continues this evening. It cannot let up if the market is going to hold its gains especially with equities continuing their one way trip north. Blue Horseshoe apparently still loves equities and until he stops loving them, a great deal of that $85 billion from the Fed this and every month, along with that $74 - $76 billion from the Bank of Japan, is going to end up in equities instead of gold.

US Mint Temporarily Suspends Sales of 1/10 ounce Gold Coins

Newswires today are reporting that the US Mint has temporarily suspended its sales of 1/10 ounce gold coins due to the surge in demand. Apparently there are insufficient supplies of the coins to meet current demand. A spokesperson for the mint says that they will resume sales as soon as the Mint can strike enough of the coins to replenish inventories.

Next to the one ounce coin coins, the 1/10 ounce gold coins are the second most popular coins bought by those desiring to own gold.

Hacked Twitter Feed for AP sends Markets Careening

I view this incident as further evidence that the US equity markets are floating higher and higher on nothing but a bubble of air. Those who continue to chase stocks higher based on nothing but liquidity injections are playing a fool's game.

I look at today's one minute collapse in prices as a warning of what will happen to this market when all of these hedge funds who keep jamming these markets higher decide to stop buying. At some point, who in the hell are they going to sell to when the bell is rung???
Following is a 5 minute chart of the emini S&P 500 futures. If you happened to have gone to the bathroom just before the sharp selloff began, and came back and sat down in your chair in front of your quote screen, you would have seen prices pretty much right back where they were when you left. "Oh well, not much happening at this point" would have been your response. Boy howdy would you have been wrong.

Can you imagine how much money was lost today by traders on the long side of this market when those computers started selling and picked off every single downside sell stop?

Already you are hearing voices condemning the computers. Why is it that we only hear these voices when prices move sharply lower but the same voices are eerily silent while the same computers are busy buying everything in sight and shoving prices into the stratosphere? I only pose that question to point out the hypocrisy of those who seem to think that there is an ELEVENTH AMENDMENT to the US Constitution noting a God-given right to a permanently rising stock market.

My contention is that this madness we are witnessing in these markets, every single damned bit of it, can be attributed directly to the Fed and this incredibly stupidly short-sighted QE crap. A balance sheet of over $3 TRILLION and rising...

There is nothing fundamental behind this rise in stock prices - nothing - not when commodity prices continue moving lower and lower. Yet, someone keeps pushing it higher even as volume continues to shrink. This tells me that there is no sponsorship in this rally other than those who are AFRAID to SELL IT. That is leaving the air pocket overhead which can be hit by comparatively small buy programs.

Today, the reason cited for the move higher in the first place is that the news out of the Eurozone is so pathetic, that traders are just convinced Draghi is going to LOWER RATES and start their own version of the Fed and BOJ liquidity party. In other words, more funny money creation. This generation of stock investors/traders is collectively punch drunk.

Meanwhile, the markets bubble higher and higher - where they stop nobody knows. Place your bets ladies and gentlemen but you had damned well be first to pull the trigger on the sells if you expect to have much of anything left when this party stops. It is a TRADER's Market and not an INVESTOR's MARKET. Just remember that and you will be okay.

 

Gold Commitment of Traders Explains surge in Open Interest

Many commentators have been confused by the recent open interest readings that we have been getting out of the CME Group detailing the movements of traders into or out of the gold futures markets. They have been looking at the huge increase and have been somewhat baffled at best and downright confused at worst.

While there is no doubt in my mind that it was a series of extremely large sell orders that got this downside ball rolling something else is going on that explains these open interest readings.

The usual pattern that we have seen in the gold market over the last decade-plus bull market has been a build up in the hedge fund long positions as they buy the market which is countered by the bullion banks and swap dealers taking the other side of that trade and going short. At some point, the market stalls in its upward momentum, a trigger occurs, and then the price reverses as the hedgies sell out or liquidate their long positions. This selling is then met with buying or the covering of shorts by the bullion banks and swap dealers.

At some point, the buying in the physical market becomes so large that it prevents any further downside price movement whereupon the market then stabilizes and the process repeats itself with price going on to make yet another high.

During these periods, many expect to see open interest shrinking as the price descends because it shows that many participants are reducing their positions - the hedge funds are getting out by selling previously established longs and the bullion banks and swap dealers are getting out by buying previously established shorts.

When open interest readings increase, it tends to confuse some as it seems to contradict the usual pattern that has become so familiar. What is leading to confusion is that the SPREAD POSITIONS of some of the LARGEST TRADERS are not taken into account.

I have graphed two of these categories for you to see and noted the price action in gold that occurred over this same period. The two categories are the SWAP DEALERS and the OTHER LARGE REPORTABLES.

This latter category includes the likes of CTA's (Commodity Trading Advisors), CPO's (Commodity Pool Operators), Large Locals from off the Pit Floor and other Large Private Traders. While these groups do not have quite the same impact as the enormous Hedge Funds, they are still large enough to affect trading.

Can you see the big spike higher in their spread positions back in August 2011, when gold shot up to $1924 and then collapsed all the way to $1535 before it stabilized? Now look at this past week's spike higher. See a pattern here? By the way, the sharp increase in the number of spreads put on by the Large Reportables Camp ( 87,178) was the largest single week increase for that camp on record. The increase in the Swap Dealers' Spread position (+49,768) was also a weekly record.

There is your REASON for the SURGE IN OPEN INTEREST.

There is a strategy behind this which I will not get into right now in detail due to time constraints ( soon coming attraction) but suffice it to say for now that it is an attempt first to get downside protection and cushion losses for those who are long and are on the wrong side. Second - the proper use of a spread position can be very advantageous to traders who can time the markets accurately enough to leg into and leg out off these spreads. It requires considerable skill however to pull this off and trading accounts large enough in size to allow for the jump in margin requirements as one leg of the spread is lifted.

IF we leave off the impact of these spreads in the overall open interest numbers, it would have only seen an INCREASE of +14,460 compared to the previous week. This was based on the bullion banks increase of both their long and short positions (which incidentally favored more longs at this point than shorts) and an increase in the SHORT positions of the small specs, the general public who sold down into what might turn out to be a hole. When we take into account the sharp increase in the number of spreads, we see a completely different picture with open interest increasing over 154,000 contracts this week alone.

Therein lies the "mystery" for the open interest readings for the past week. If gold stabilizes here and begins to base build, watch for these spreads to be drawn down.

Trader Dan Interviewed on King World News Markets and Metals Wrap

Please click on the following link to listen in to my regular weekly radio interview with Eric King over at the KWN Metals Wrap.

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/4/20_KWN_Weekly_Metals_Wrap.html

Monthly Gold Chart

I wanted to see how this week's price action in gold would resolve itself so that I could do a bit of analysis on the market. Keep in mind that this is LONG TERM stuff. The nature of markets nowadays being what it is (they are run by hedge fund algorithms which do not think but just issue buy or sell orders automatically once certain trips are triggered) it helps to get a sense of where we are in the general scheme of things by looking at the larger picture to see if we can identify a long term trend.

I realize that the chart is cluttered but it needs to be in order to show the areas I have pinpointed that need some attention given to them. I have laid out TWO separate Fibonacci retracement patterns starting with the 2001 low and extending to the 2011 peak PLUS one starting with the 2008 low and running to that same 2011 peak up above $1900.

Then I have drawn in TWO separate pitchforks - one for use during the bullish phase and one for use during this now bearish phase.

I am interested in seeing the intersections between these various levels that are generated. Look at the area I have noted with an ellipse. It contains TWO Fibonacci retracement levels - the 38.2% retracement of the entire rally beginning in 2001 and the critical 50% retracement rally from the 2008-2011 rally. Can you see how those center around the $1300 level?

Now note the two pitchforks - the one uptrending, and the other downtrending and locate the intersection of the median or middle lines in both forks. Can you see how it come in right on top of the previously mentioned TWO Fibonacci retracement levels?

What does all this entrail reading denote? Simple - the area near and around the $1300 level is now critical for gold's fortunes as we move forward.  I believe it has as much significance as the former support zone back up near the $1525 region.

If this region fails for any reason, gold is going to fall first to $1200 and then possibly $1100 - $1092.  That would dovetail with the BEARISH FLAG FORMATION I have noted on a previously posted daily gold chart that would target another $200 drop if this week's low were to be violated on HEAVY VOLUME.

If the bulls can hold this market above this week's low but certainly above the $1300 level, then they stand a real chance of forcing a period of price consolidation or sideways movement. I believe it is too much to expect this market to ricochet sharply higher after the psychological beating that the bulls have received this past week.

While it is certainly encouraging to see the strong physical offtake that these lower prices are stimulating, it will require the return of the hedge funds to the long side of this market to take it sharply higher. for that to transpire, we must see fears of inflation displacing fears of deflation or slowing growth. Falling interest rates globally are showing that currently there exists no fear of inflation from Central Bank money creation at this point.

This week's Commitment of Traders report might be misleading to some because it shows Hedge Fund short covering occurring. Some might be tempted to think that they are abandoning the short side of the market. What needs to be understood is that gold plummeted over $200 in the matter of a couple of days. When it hit $1320, some shorts prudently booked some profits. The market then popped $40 off of that level. The next day, Tuesday, it fell back down to that $1320 level, but rebounded all the way back up towards $1400. That buying was SHORT COVERING on the part of the hedge funds. Once it showed that it was not going to break support, they rang the cash register on some short positions. They are however looking to sell rallies so they probably re-entered above $1400 during today's session (Friday).

We saw similar data in the COT for both silver and copper. Both of these metals showed that same short covering by the hedgies. In copper they covered some of their shorts below the $3.25 level on Monday and Tuesday. In silver, they covered some of their shorts on the steep fall towards $22. The trends in these metals are lower however and that means rallies will be sold by the speculative crowd dominated by the hedge funds.

To force some of these guys out of their short positions, it is going to take a concerted effort by the bulls to push price high enough to trigger their algorithms into buying. I am not sure where that catalyst might come from in the very near future. For starters I would need to see some sort of upside reversals in various commodity futures markets, notably copper and crude oil/gasoline and then the grains. In other words, the CCI would need to forge a bottom and show a definite upward turn with a trend change.

Fundamentally, we need to see a rise in real wages as well. Interest rates also would need to show a shift in the curve towards anticipation of inflation by the bond markets. They will pick it up long before the herd that looks only at equities figures it out.

Gold sees Strong Short Covering in Asia

Last evening here in the US, while watching the gold price action, it was evident that the reports of strong physical buying spooked a fair number of weak-handed shorts. In watching the price climb, once gold poked its head above $1400, but especially $1402 or so, the stops got hit and up she went. Volume picked up as the stops were continuing to fire, until the market ran out of steam up near $1425 where it began to retreat.

That was the high point for the session. Once trading moved into New York and the PM Fix was over, with India and the rest of Asia now closed, bears were able to take the metal down below $1400 again before the pit session closed. However, in the after market it has been floating back above $1400 once again.

I would have liked to see this thing hold onto a handle of "14" but at least it closed firm even though it was down some $106 for the week.

We have some technical chart points now to work with on this market. Support is in the zone noted extending down from $1365 and below while resistance is last evening's high near $1425.

A couple of things can be said about this chart. First, the more ominous news - the chart is displaying a near picture perfect BEARISH FLAG FORMATION. (That formation is shown in BLUE). If this market were to somehow break support on the downside after showing a pattern like this, it would portend the possibility of another $200 drop before all is said and done. I shudder to think what that would portend however for the global economy because it would signal that the Central Banks and their money spigots have failed completely in the battle against deflation. If that were the case, the stock markets globally would implode.

Having said that, based on the type of solid demand mentioned this past week, I find it very hard to believe that this week's support zone will not hold. Again, if it does not, we are all in for a world of serious hurt.

The positive news from the chart is that the market has gone down to this support zone THREE TIMES this week and on each and every visit down there, it has encountered more buying than selling! Bears surely want to break it lower but they could not.

The other thing is that the HUI showed some signs of life this week after getting the snot beat out of it nearly nonstop over the last two week period. If this index can manage to somehow claw its way back above the 300 level, I would feel much more confident saying a long term bottom is in on that chart. That remains a good ways above the current level however with its close just shy of 270 this week.

Again, I strongly believe that since the mining stocks led this market lower on the way down, they should be the first to turn if this market is going to head back up. Why? Because it will signify the RETURN OF INVESTMENT MONEY into this gold market.

Russell 2000 Bounces but Remains Weak

The Russell 2000, an index of smaller cap stocks, has been a pretty decent indicator of investors' sentiment towards the risk trade or the "improving global economy" trade.

It tended to outperform the broader market as stocks went on a maddening tear higher with the unleashing of the Fed's QE programs. Those combined with the ECB bond buying program in the Euro zone and now, the conjunction of the Bank of Japan's bond buying policy, had gotten investors in a tizzy to chase stocks higher no matter what the economic news was.

In a case of "Heads - I win" or "Tails - You lose" if the economic news was improving, stocks went higher on talk about the improving economy. If the economic news was bad, stocks went higher anyway because equity perma bulls could point to the lousy data as evidence that the QE programs would continue. Regardless, it was "BUY, BUY, and BUY"; no questions asked.

Suddenly, the bottom began to drop out of various commodity markets, most notably copper and of course gold and silver. But even crude oil and gasoline had been breaking down on their charts to the extent that the entire CCI, Continuous Commodity Complex has been swooning. There does come a point where even the most die hard stock bull has to start wondering how long his or her market can continue to levitate in the face of one piece of evidence after another that all is not well in La-La Land.

While we are seeing another miraculous recovery in stocks today, even as copper sinks further into bear market territory, that rally cannot hide the deterioration that is now solidly entrenched on the technical price charts.

Take a look at this Russell 2000 daily chart. It had fallen below the very important 50 day moving average early this month but managed to recover and rally back to near the recent high. Instead of attracting buying however, it began to attract selling. The result was a technical failure that has sent this index lower. This week, on Monday, the index broke firmly below the 50 day moving average again. After a feeble attempt at moving higher, it swooned on Wednesday and continued lower Thursday. Here, we are seeing what we have come to expect at this point on a Friday - the equity markets are miraculously saved from even more severe chart breakdowns just in the nick of time (PPT anyone?).

That being said, the index has now been trading below the 50 day moving average the entire week. The longer it stays below that average, the more likely it is going to break down further. I have noted two additional important moving averages, the 100 day and the 200 day. Notice that the horizontal support line I have shown in dotted red, come in exactly at the 100 day. That seems a logical target for this market at this point.

If this index falls below that level and cannot get back over it within the same week, I believe we are going to see a much more severe downdraft in the equity markets commence. What this will be telling us is that a growing number of stock investors will be turning bearish on equities even in the face of all this QE stimulus coming from both the Fed and the Bank of Japan. In other words, the investor world will be sending a signal that it no longer believes the bond buying programs are going to have any efficacy on creating any kind of serious growth!

Also note something that we have not seen in quite a while (early November of last year - remember when the "fiscal cliff" thing was all the rage), namely, the 50 day moving average is now turning lower. That bears watching.

Something else I have noted in my personal studies but will not post here is that the Homebuilders ETF, XHB, shows a chart pattern that is almost identical to this one. The same things that were said about the Russell 2000 apply to the XHB, it has been a strong performer to the upside as the housing sector has been seeing some signs of activity based on the availability of cheap mortgage money. If the housing market does roll over, this economy is in serious, and I mean serious trouble. I personally believe that this is what Dr. Copper has been forecasting.

This is the reason that I feel silver is having trouble even as gold has been showing good resiliency down here. The selling in copper is simply too much for the silver market (paper) right now as investors are selling base and industrial metals as they bet on slowing growth.

Today's Commitment of Traders report for copper shows the hedge funds still net short by a 2:1 margin. The report picked up the short covering among these big traders down below 3.25 on Monday and Tuesday but it did not catch the ferocious selling that hit this market the remainder of this week. My guess is that they went right back onto the short side in larger quantities again.