"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat
Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput
Trader Dan's Work is NOW AVAILABLE AT WWW.TRADERDAN.NET
Hedge Funds Exiting Gold once Again
Take a look at the chart and you will see what I meant in choosing the title for this post.
In the last two months alone, the NET LONG position of the hedge fund community has been cut in half. That has come about by a combination of both long liquidation and the addition of new short positions. Currently it is at 71,376.
What is rather disturbing is that the number of outright long positions ( both futures and options combined ) of 129,921, remains rather large compared to the last time gold was trading near these levels in the first week of June of this year.
Back then, hedge funds were holding 121,428 outright long positions when gold was at the $1244 level. Their short holdings were at 70,364 compared to this week's 58,545. That put them at a NET LONG position of 51,064 compared to this week's 71,376. That is a net contract difference of over 20,000 contracts!
That is why it is important that $1240-$1235 did not hold. The potential for additional long side liquidation PLUS net shorting from these technically oriented hedge funds, opens additional downside probabilities. If the funds begin to wash out and also move more towards the short side, the selling pressure would intensify. It would be enough to set up a test of $1200 without some sort of upside catalyst occurring very, very soon.
Just buy a bit based on seasonal but you right, gold still bearish
ReplyDeleteA gentleman leans over the fence and tells his neighbor that gold is going to rise in price from its current $300. As the person on the other side of the fence thinks differently, they both agree to a binding bet. In three months, we will settle up with a payment of the change in the price of one hundred ounces of gold. Whatever it rises, the "bull" collects that amount. Likewise, whatever it falls, the "bear" collects from the bull. Each puts a $1500 payment guarantee into a common shoe box and gives it to another neighbor for safekeeping.
DeleteAs an observer of the above, we have just witnessed the creation of a wager not unlike a comex futures contract. On each side of the fence stands a long and a short, that together create an open interest of one contract. Neither has any intention of buying gold, nor do they expect physical gold to be a part of this bet. Yet, at cocktail parties and on public internet forums, one claims to have "bought gold" and the other states that he "sold gold".
Yep. That's what just happened, it's paper rather than physical so more risky due to the time deadline, leverage and the risk of the third neighbor leaving town with the money.
DeleteIMHO there is enough risk in this market that I prefer to stay out of the futures. Your mileage may vary.
both sides are using paper gold bets to represent their beliefs. Truly, the major majority of this market does not buy or sell physical gold to represent their investment concepts. There are a few that buy coins and bullion, but, even in their large amounts, it is only a drop in the paper gold bucket. This just shows the absurdity of having a non consumed tier one monetary asset with a currency code, traded on a commodity futures exchange. But it works very well for the banking interests who's first and foremost interest is the marketability of government bonds.
DeleteI agree M. I have raised the issue about gold being traded as a commodity here. I understand supply and demand stresses on commodities that are consumed but why would there ever be a supply constraint on gold? Most of the gold ever mined is still sitting somewhere waiting to be bought or sold. Why would there ever be supply constraints? The only thing that moves physical gold is price. I look forward to the eventual destruction of the paper gold market. Then "the market" can tell us what physical gold is really worth.
DeleteThis is why I take issue with Dan kicking gold bugs like King world News around. This is the play that gold bugs are anticipating. Nobody knows when it will happen. So is buying physical now a long play or a short play ? Nobody knows when it will happen so there is no answer. Anyone with a basic understanding of economics 101 and gravity just has to buy and let it play out
Delete"Paper" gold is the primary reason it rose an ABSURD 600% in 11 years (on the back of emerging markets, hyper-inflation fears, etc, etc). But the added liquidity of ETFs, etc., in early 2000s is a double edged sword and what goes up can come back down. This is something goldbugs will never understand as they prophesize an infinite number of reasons why it should ONLY go up. The last time gold shot up to such extremes (Late 1970s to Early 1980s) it subsequently went through a more than 20 year bear market. Yet, we continue to hear goldbugs give us an endless number of reasons why at some point gold will rise to $2K then $5K and then $10K. There apparently is no limit to how high gold should go and NOW is always a great time to buy. AND, when it drops it is always due to nefarious forces ONLY (something that will eventually be cleaned up by the authorities in charge).
DeleteWow. You must explain to me how exponentially increasing the "supply" of a commodity that is NEVER CONSUMED increases the value of that commodity. FWIW I do agree that the only thing moving the POG in these distorted markets is trader sentiment. Traders buying and selling paper claims.
Deleteeric webber;
Deleteindeed - the reason one can tell that far too many of these detestable gold bugs are married to a piece of metal is exactly what you describe. There is no objectivity, no cold-blooded, detached examination of whether or not the investment is producing strong returns year over year, no selling (EVER) of their metal but a holding and holding and holding and holding, and worse, a bizarre, irrational expectation that the metal must always rise in price.
Where else in the investment world, with all the different asset classes available for people to park investment capital, do you find this sort of self-defeating, rabid devotion?
Like I have said many times, having had some experience in dealing with people in cults in the past, for far too many, gold is a cult.
Zhang Lan
DeleteThank you for adding precision to a simplistic analysis. I stand gratefully corrected.
BTW
I really enjoyed your analysis of the qualifications required to publish and comment as an expert on gold.
@ Eric
DeletePeople seem to forget where gold started and where it went in the last bull market. And in what currencies. People who bought at 35, 75, 105 or so still more then doubled their money if they held it to the next bear market bottom. With tons of chances to cash some out.
And then some traders will go along and compare gold to a stock index. Stock indexes don't account for the stocks that are entering and exiting (going bankrupt) the index. So the next time you compare gold returns to stocks, take the value of the stocks that comprised the index at the start of the timeframe and price them till the end.
@ Gene
DeleteYou sound like someone who just got out of an economics 101 course. Sit tf down
@ Zhang
DeleteYou really think that much physical is changing hands ? Why would the NY Fed amortize the repatriation of German gold over 7 years then ? Bah that's just conspiracy sorry.
No Econ 101 here M. Thankfully my parents taught me how to be a civil, decent human being. Guess you missed that day in school.
DeleteI was being sarcastic with that comment about Econ 101.
DeleteThe prevailing attitude on this thread is that Econ 101 is for gold bugs. Strange ...
Ok
Delete@M
DeleteBrilliant comments.
@Dan
Where else in the investment world, with all the different asset classes available for people to park investment capital, do you find this sort of self-defeating, rabid devotion?
Isn't the established financial system based on eternal growth?
So far I have not read a single word about from you, about this self-defeating, rabid devotion of growth-fetishism.
Compound interest based on money as debt: is an exponential function.
Now tell us how stupid is it, to believe that a financial system, based on exponential growth, on a limited planet could be a stable system - compared to gold bugs, that at least have understood, that the established ponzi system is not stable and sooner or later has to collapse.
@M
DeleteBrilliant comments.
@Dan
'Where else in the investment world, with all the different asset classes available for people to park investment capital, do you find this sort of self-defeating, rabid devotion?'
Isn't the established financial system based on eternal growth?
So far I have not read a single word about from you, about this self-defeating, rabid devotion of growth-fetishism.
Compound interest based on money as debt: is an exponential function.
Now tell us how stupid is it, to believe that a financial system, based on exponential growth, on a limited planet could be a stable system - compared to gold bugs, that at least have understood, that the established ponzi system is not stable and sooner or later has to collapse.
I just heard the most hilarious comment from a goldbug. He said that: "every single day is a good day to buy gold because gold only goes up over time. It has been going up for thousands of years and is the only asset on earth that will continue to go up forever". Forget the fact that folks are unable to live for thousands of years, and that there are often 20 to 40 year bear markets throughout it's history. .....LOL ..... I think Goldbugs are here on earth either for our amusement, or for us to feel pity for.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteBTW - "M" and "endzeit14" - you two do not understand our monetary system. You bash our "fiat" system because it "creates dollars out of this air" - (which is really false). And you go on a rant about the declining value of the dollar over time (calling it a ponzi system). It is not the "value" of the dollar over time that matters (or level of steady inflation). Rather it is what your labor hours over time can purchase, that matters most. And there is absolutely no doubt that over time, the average American can purchase more and more with his or her labor hours over the course of American history. Compare what you can purchase today compared to what your grandparents or great grandparents could purchase. Most Americans today have cars and computers, equivalent folks in the early 1900s had neither. If you don’t like your ‘fiat’ money, then put your words into action and see how you get along without. If you think Gold is the one and only true money – then let’s see you try it!
Delete@ Eric
DeleteI am a Freegolder. Freegolders are all for digital and paper currency as a medium of exchange.
Freegold basically means this: It is the split in the functions of money. Digital/paper currency is for spending and medium term savings and physical gold is for saving. The solution is not to make easy money a little harder (gold standard) or hard money a little easier (debt standard). The solution is to let the price of physical gold float freely against all currencies. Unlike the debt standard today where gold is marked down at $42 an ounce by the "reserve currency" issuing nation state. And where gold is priced in a betting parlor levered 100 to 1.
http://fofoa.blogspot.ca/2011/09/once-upon-time.html
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000310045
ReplyDeleteDollar up, gold Down - okay
DeleteDollar at top of it's range, Gold at the bottom of it's range - okay
Play for a gold bounce? - pretty suspect.
Please note that both Dollar and gold have hit the edges of their ranges multiple times. Yes they might bounce back again, yes they might consolidate / coil, and yes they might break out! It all depends on what the hedge fund computers do.
This looks to me like one where Hubert would pick a very close stop on a very small position.
Now that it is on CNBC expect it to be a very crowed trade at the retail level too. The big guys might stage a couple spikes just to flush the weak hands.
Thanks for posting the chart.
ReplyDeleteJanet;
DeleteYou are welcome!
Excellent point, thanks a lot!
ReplyDeleteI'm not going to share the details of my trades with as many details as previously, because I won't be able to post updates realtime, and many of them are too short term, but right now I'm targetting 1180 or 1200 as a bare minimum on gold.
Keeping a close eye on silver, too, as it is really in the danger zone now near the lows of 18.30 $.
It's frightening to consider that you are the only sane person commenting on gold. You are the best! And, I thank you that you've saved me from even more incredible losses than I've already incurred listening to the mass of insane gold bugs in the past.
ReplyDeleteWhich seems to be one of Dan's motivators for doing it in the face of the gold trolls hate.
DeleteFor which we owe Dan thanks.
DeleteAssuming the gold trolls Mike refers to are not the same gold trolls Jim Sinclair referred to in his youngest bottom call last week as gold was breaking down once again.
AbbeyKnight;
Deletethanks for the kind words. It is nice to read some of those on occasion instead of the usual gold bug foolishness. That is indeed why I keep this site going, although I am very tempted at times to just close it down.
Trying to help people see through the hucksters, shills, charlatans and frauds that infest the world of gold is a thankless task. If we can wake up a few every now and then however, it will be worth it.
Yes Dan,
DeleteYou know what they say about killing the messenger?
You are the messenger of bad news for gold bugs, saying this is a cult and gold may go down further and then be rangebound for long before maybe going up.
Noone wants to be bothered in their certainties.
It puts in question one's initial decision, and many people in the gold community, because they never were traders nor even investors in the first place, seem unable to do that.
But I'm sure you've helped a lot not to suffer more losses.
Only, the angry ones make more noise.
Hubert;
DeleteI would like to think that I have helped some folks out there avoid getting completely taken to the cleaners by these flim flam artists. I suppose that is worth having to put up with some of the rabid gold cult members. What a sorry lot they are... always angry and always seemingly wishing for ruin and devastation to come upon as all in order to "prove them right" and force the price of their yellow metal god higher so that they can enrich themselves with more paper money that they so seem to despise when they sell their gold and cash in to enjoy the good life while the rest of the world goes to hell in a handbasket.
2 of the great selling opportunities to sell into gold were the Russki invasion of Afghanistan and the Iraq invasion of Iran. when I shave in the morning and ask myself if Ukraine gets even worse, would I buy gold? I always give myself the same answer.
DeleteIt'll be interesting to see how gold reacts once the bombs start falling on Iraq, Syria etc.
ReplyDeleteI'm guessing it'll react very slightly to the upside and then continue to slowly fizzle downwards.
At some point we retest and break $1180.
How far past that and for how long is anyone's guess.
My guess for awhile now is that we eventually see $1075 and it has everyone thinking we'll breach $1000 but we won't.
Kind of like when we hit $1900 and $2000 seemed likely but it never came to fruition.
I don't know any gold bugs that had an average price at the top in 2011 at 1900. The paper momentum traders painted that tape and took the loss.
DeleteBut even so, am I supposed to jump off a bridge because the price is off by 33% from the top ? Unlike any asset, gold always makes higher lows through bull and bear markets. The 2000 bottom at 268 is a hell of a long ways from the old bottom at 35. And after this 32 year long credit cycle resets itself , the new new bear market bottom will be many hundreds of percent above 268. This is after the bull market that hasn't even happened yet.
I'm just figuring a long term range of 1100-1500 that could go on for years...and years...and years. I'll be selling physical into the upper end of that range, but not buying any near the lows. Lightening up, always.
ReplyDeleteAnd I think "silver is the new copper", and the GSR will reach a "permanently high plateau" (to borrow an unfortunate phrase) in the 80-100 range.
ReplyDeleteThe metals bull market of the 2000's is over, and will take a generation to rebuild.
Just remember that gold rises when interest rates rise. 2004-2007, 1970's ect. Happens every single time. Why did gold fall in 2008 ? Because interest rates fell. So unless you think this US debt bull market can last another generation (even though it's reached it's mathematical limit already) then you stand to lose a lot of money.
DeleteGood morning EO...I can't disagree with any of that.
DeleteI totally agree on the GSR hitting 80+ before it tightens up in any appreciable way.
I haven't sold any of my phyz metal at this point and probably won't do so unless I absolutely need to.
But....if I had to do it all over again I would've sold it all at $1900 and $48 and replaced it at $1200 and $20.
No guts, no glory I guess.
What I find almost humorous are the folks who insist that they wouldn't sell their stack at any price because they essentially would only get paper money back in return.
But didn't they use paper money or a debit/credit card to purchase it? Paper money, and lots if it, works just fine for me,
Another pool of thought states that the chart prices don't matter and that the PM's are undervalued vs. their true price. Huh, say what?
Yet no one can state how or what that true price is or what they would find acceptable to be paid in.
Pure silliness.
M:
DeleteGold reacts more to REAL interest rates, i.e. rates vs inflation, or rates vs inflationary expectations, to be more precise. In other words, not so much as to absolute rates, but more toward the impression as to whether the Fed is "ahead" or "behind" the curve. If rates were to rise faster than inflationary expectations, perhaps in some kind of Treasury market debacle which also suppresses the economy due to the suddenly high rates, gold will be crushed without mercy.
That is the genesis of the current malaise in the metals, in less cataclysmic terms. The sense that the Fed is tapering, in the absence of any inflation or real economic strength whatsoever. The sense that real rates are headed higher. Bad for metals.
DeleteAnd howdy, DPH. Yikes, here I am talking about gold fundmentals, while I personally don't even believe in fundamental analysis of much of anything anymore. In terms of practical money management, the fundamentals are a dangerous siren song to be avoided at all costs. Stick with the charts. Stick with the trend. It just so happens right now that the trend in metals is lower, and in sync with the fundamentals as I see them. That is comforting, but if they diverge? Stick with the charts. They never lie. The fundamentals do. How can the fundamentals lie? Because we are all human and it's our interpretation of said fundamentals that can be rife with bias and error.
DeleteM: Eric O is correct and as Dan has posted several times, Gold rose when real interest rates fell. The Inflation rate exceeded interest rates therefore real interest rates were negative. In the 70's gold was increasing in price when interest rates were rising that is true, but inflation rates were even higher. Volcker raised rates to tame inflation.
DeleteEricO; Denver Dave has the ratio going to 15-1; lol
DeleteHi Dan, Hi all,
ReplyDeleteI'd like to give my position about gold regarding the near future, because many people here on this blog seem to see those prices as an opportunity to add some more on the long side.
Especially, "M" seems to have lots and lots of reasons to advise to buy gold, and buy more...comparing to years 1929, 1976, and soon 1492.
First, let me tell you what I think about people who say "it's ok, I bought at higher prices because it was a great long term opportunity, and I'll buy some more if it goes down, because it will be an even better opportunity".
Let's do some maths.
Mr "N" has 1900 $ and decides to buy an ounce of gold at 1900 $ at the top, because "gold is in a bull trend". It costs him 1900 $.
Mr "H" also has 1900 $ but thinks the market is overbought and decides to go short gold.
When gold reaches 1200 now, Mr M goes all-in because it is such an opportunity, and buys another ounce for 1200 $ more. So he has 2 ounces of gold Right?
But Mr H, stupid as he is, is following the charts of the awfully manipulated market, and without thinking about great opportunities, sells another 1200 $ as well on the short side.
Now let's suppose that gold stops at 1000 $, and this time there are signs of a real bottom in gold, both technically and fundamentally speaking.
Mr H, stupid as he is, made a profit of 900 + 200 = 1100 $, with the same amount of money than M, and now decides to reverse to the long side. Well...Now he can afford to buy more than 3 ounces of gold, even physical if we wants to.
Hey, genius M cannot afford to buy anything, because actually he is crippled now. He lost 900 + 200 = 1100 $ at the moment, will stay long with his mere 2 ounces of gold and will hope to break even eventually in the future because buying gold higher was such a good opportunity, shown by historical years such as 1929, 1789 of course, and 1944 (the holy year of James Turk's birth).
I think I'll stick with my charts.
All other things are opinions, written by people who most of time are simply unable to draw a chart, know nothing about technical analysis, and replace it with BS.
I'll stick to T.A.
Not everyone lives within the US bubble in case you didn't know. There is billions of people living and transacting in diffrent currencies. There hasn't been a bear market in gold in 50 years priced in a lot of non petrodollar currencies. Not even the 80s crash put gold in a bear market in Indian Rupees.
DeleteGold was only down for ONE year so far. Check the charts. And this is with the 32 year long bond price bull market still chugging along and making newer and newer highs as the years go by. Gold rises when interest rates rise. So again check the chart from 2004 to 2007 or the 70's. Or check the Euro price of gold when rates went up for the PIIGS in 2010. Did gold fall ? Nope. It went up.
"Gold was only down for ONE year so far".
DeleteYes and it already lost 33%.
Longs lost 33% of their money.
Those who left the market didn't lose money.
Shorts made 33%.
Apparently you consider a -33% performance per year a very sound investment.
If you do, of course, we will never understand each other.
As for gold in euro, it's not going up at all.
And friday, eur usd was rising a bit, but gold kept going down.
Gold is weak.
Admit reality of the moment instead of refusing it and staying in a dream that may cost you another -33% performance this year.
But as I wrote, suit yourself.
Shorts made
M:
DeleteYour refrain of "gold rises when interest rates rise" marks you as someone who is sorely in need of a tutorial. See my posts up thread. And, you're welcome.
One last attempt, to be crystal clear:
DeleteREAL interest rates, anticipated to be heading higher, equals bad for gold.
REAL interest rates, anticipated to be heading lower, equals good for gold.
Here endeth the lesson.
Hubert;
DeleteMost excellent comments my friend.
you are of course spot on with your analysis.
I had hoped to give this buffoon "M" one more chance to learn something from the many people who contribute to this blog and who understand markets and return on investment. Instead we get the same worn out, trite drivel about how wonderful an investment gold is no matter that it has been in a bear market for more than 3 years now.
This is the problem with so many "gold bugs" and why so many professional traders/investors hold them in such contempt. Facts means nothing to them - just like you so ably cited.
They will go to their graves cradling their beloved metal god in their embrace all the while calling it their savior.
Think about it - a piece of metal that serves as a store of value or an insurance policy for most rational people becomes an object that they will defend to their last moment here on the earth.
The emotional attachment and visceral reaction that so many of them have to the least bit of negativity towards their metal god is an object lesson in what those investors or traders seeking to be successful must learn to avoid.
Eric Original;
DeleteYes, exactly how gold responds to the interest rate environment. It is all about REAL interest rates and not NOMINAL interest rates.
What cut the legs out from under gold completely when it broke down way back in 1980 was Volckers hiking of interest rates to break the back of inflation and commodity prices.
MOney left gold for bonds to obtain what are essentially risk free returns. The rate hikes hurt the US economy for the first couple of years but inflation was put back in a bottle for many years as a result.
SO, let me understand this, "M" buys gold in a different currency, but comes here to read Dan's analysis on Gold (which is US dollar denominated). Brilliant dude. You really are nothing more than a currency trader, then - so what are you doing here trying to tell us all why gold should go up? Or, are you trying to tell us that your home currency is heading down?
Delete@ Zhang - Gold is denominated in what? Yes dollars! It moves in US DOLLARS! SO, whether or not the price in gold moves in any other currency is merely dependent upon the value of that currency relative to what? Yes, that would be US DOLLARS! So, if you are buying and selling gold in a non-dollar currency, then you really are not only playing the movement in gold as denominated in dollars, but the movement in your home currency against US dollars. this means you are trading both gold denominated in dollars and the value of your home currency relative to Dollars. You are speculating on two variables - and hence engaging in currency trading.
DeleteSo you guys think the Fed will raise rates until they are positive and this will have a negative effect on gold. Ok
DeleteGuess what. The Fed ain't raising rates positive. Which would be over 3% now
Now here is what my stupid and totally useless (in a constantly manipulated market) charts tell me (you can click on the chart to zoom in) : the probability for gold to go lower is higher than the one to go higher (and therefore I am short gold for now, since 1240 was broken).
ReplyDeletehttp://i57.tinypic.com/2vt37rm.jpg
Weekly time unit :
1) I showed you the danger of the RED CHANNEL going down. Especially when we were bouncing on it near 1320, and that was the time that I stupidly chose to go short gold at 1314 (stupidly because it was already such a buying opportunity). Gold is rangebound (i.e horizontal) until it hits the red resistance and then...well last time it happened, it then lost 800 $!
So be ready, courageous bulls!! Be ready also for the impossible : Bo Polny being wrong on his 2000 $ call for end 2014 (oh my gosh, shock and awe!).
2) the 1240 support doesn't seem to be holding, and the next support is...1180. How cool is that, to buy gold, just when it's breaking a support area? I don't know, I'm not fighting the evil manipulators for a living.
3) The MACD crossed down and is heading down (bearish)
4) The inf Bollinger Band is GIVING WAY!! And this, after one year+ of Bollinger Bands converging towards each other until they formed a narrow horizontal band of +/- 100 $. You know nothing about Bollinger Bands? Keep being clever and ignore them! They are for sure totally useless in a manipulated world ruled by central bankers. As I am stupid, I elect to interpret this as a potential renewed increased volatility on the weekly time unit, at the moment when gold is heading down! Yipeee!
5) The long term support (upwards) is about to be broken. We can see this support on the monthly time unit, rather, and I'm sure that most hedge funds who are bullish are going to see it as a Great Buying Opportunity as well for the long term. Remember! Always buy when a support is breaking, and prices dive lower! It's a recepy to make lots and lots of money.... ??!!!!
DAILY TIME UNIT.
1) The MACD 9 20 7 broke its propagation axis long ago (bearish).
2) Well...remember the EUR USD choosing its channel among 2 downwards channels? Remember the acceleration down when it broke the first channel? Now watch the red and blue channels regarding gold. What do you think could happen here? Well...as I'm silly, I see that the support of the blue channel is headed towards... 1180, the historical lows. Not to worry, I believe in Bo Polny! (and in 1929, and in gold being scarced and going UP UP UP during deflation time...too bad that the majority of investors doesn't seem to know about it, though!! But they will any minute now, for sure!!).
So now, here is how I'm going to trade this.
ReplyDeleteBecause there is a time to play a bounce, and there is a time to favor a continuation / propagation of the trend. And here it would be a propagation of the bearish trend on the daily time unit to the wekly time unit.
You don't know about T.A, just go learn!!
I don't even pretend to be a trader, but when I see how arrogant some gold bugs bull can be without ANY sound arugment except than their WISHES, it really makes me feel better.
The blue resistance of the channel going downards can be used to put a stop loss, but it's a bit far away. I prefer the ema15 (red dotted line), or even the support of the red channel. The risk reward ratio is better that way. The target is 1180.
Of course, I can be wrong.
Of course, gold can also bounce and kick my ass!
But what matter is what I read on my charts. If you are going to tell me that you see a bullish trend on gold now, ok, you are welcome, but bring me a chart and tell me how and why!! Because I don't see it at all, except we are on the inf bollinger of the weekly, I.E we may have a short term bounce upwards within a longer term bearish trend, and that's all.
Anyway, suit yourselves.
This is a great addition to a stellar series of posts by Trader Dan. Thanks.
DeleteI agree...thanks HDH...and Dan also, of course.
DeleteDan, Lan, and Hubert; I applaud you 3 in your efforts to educate the unwashed masses that visit here and refuse to change their minds about the realities displaying themselves everyday. You all have the patience of Jobe and that is admirable. Me? Since I became older than dirt, I only live by 1 idea when it comes to those who have long ago let their emotions overpower their now dormant or should I say nonexistent common sense? And that is that most specs, investors, and gamblers are deep down inside looking to lose. Move along, nothing to see here.
DeleteExcellent serial Hubert. Keep on writing.
ReplyDeleteDAN - I agree with your comment from the previous article that there are too many would be bulls in the game for there to be a bottom.
ReplyDeleteBut what I meant regarding the chart I posted was the formation is eerie to today's just before the big dump and final bottom. It's small but look at the breaking of the base, rhino horn back up, then a slow melt breaking through the double bottom:
http://goldbugreport.wordpress.com/2014/04/10/is-history-repeating-today-like-1977/
If the rest of the longs capitulate in the next few months we can certainly see a repeat of the waterfall drop to $100 in 76' or $1000 today.
Interesting. What this chart tells me as a non-trader is: 1. wait for higher highs before getting back into gold & miners 2. don't fight the trend.
DeleteAn aside:
USDX is pressing on the high side of its range and it seems that there would be some degree of 'sell the news' after Fed meeting this week rather than seeing it break out.
From 1976 to 1980 gold rose to $800 and this has often been attributed to rising interest rates. In reality, the rise of gold was caused by the fact that price inflation outstripped the rising rates so that we still had negative rates. When this phenomena occurs then gold will usually go up in price. Now, rates and inflation are roughly in kilter, and there is the strong belief that the Fed is going to raise rates, hence the reaction in gold, and presumably also soon the downward reaction in the S&P. But is this belief in the Fed raising rates authentic, or will it just be a token bluff? How far could they raise rates without devastation to the markets and to the economy? How would they repay the interest on the national debt? If the belief changes after a period of token rises, and the perception is that they will not raise them any further, then markets may resume their upward trend, including gold. The Fed could lose credibility.
ReplyDeleteHowever, this is many months away, and in the interim all markets may be affected. If the S&P fell too much, they might readjust their policy sooner. As for gold, the short-term perception is bleak, and it could continue to fall substantially from here. In fact, there may be a waterfall this week if Yellen infers that rate rises are coming sooner than later.
As for me, I am going to back this backward running nag in the Grand National. This policy also has the advantage of protecting existing investments.
Great writings going into the weekend Dan. Thank you. And now a word on humility, complacency and black swan events. This is a great read for serious traders...
ReplyDeletehttp://newtraderu.com/2012/12/02/2551/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GyPA71oDNIg#t=38
Deleteoh, the humanity...
Zhang Lan:
DeleteHappy Sunday Morning!
I don’t have a particular liking for any of the parties in the dog fight; Israelis, Palestinians, Hamas, ISIS, ISIL, Islamic State, the Caliphate or the USA’s foreign “policy”.
What I do see is a group of peoples stuck in a blood feud going back centuries. Pick your side and find a date when it was “their land”, that’s all they need for war. To make it justifiable and gain strength they “selectively interpret” their book to make it God’s/Allah’s will. They then engage in the worst kinds of conduct; rape, pillage, murder, genocide, and desecration to name a few.
When people engage in these revenge and power based wars in the name of God instead of seeking ways to live together in peace there are only a few possible outcomes. Eventual domination by one strong party or continued Balkan style strife. If there is anybody I fee for it is the Jews who were given land in repatriation for Hitler’s attempt at genocide thus purging the allies of their guilt. That is another colossal failure of the global government in that it victimized the Palestinians and left Israel surrounded by enemies who deny their right to exist.
I really don’t see how this will end well. My only solution is to build a figurative wall around it and tell them to let us know who the winner is. If they can’t keep it to themselves (al-Qaeda and the like) then nuke the place back to glass.
Not upholding the Christian ideals I aspire to but practical as I really don’t see another practical solution.
JMHO
The inhumanity and the lact of a viable solution are what make me turn away with a bad feeling in my stomach.
DeleteFortunately my wife is quite merciful. Best of luck to PCB, I don't want to tangle with you.
OK, to mitigate what I just said :
ReplyDelete1) my theoretical target, short term i.e within a month is 1180.
2) a very short term bounce is likely, because we've already made 9 consecutive lows on the daily time unit. So it is unlikely that we make it straight towards 1200/1180 without a very short term upwards correction.
3) if the upwards reaction is only a correction within a downwards trend, it shoudn't be able to make it above the ema15 / ma20 daily, which allows me to put a stop loss.
4) the very long term upwards support is around 1240, but is should be considered on a monthly time unit at least, and with the lack of precision of non horizontal supports with lots of candles since the beginning. So it's not a huge drama or a certainty yet that we broke through 1240. If we make it back very quickly on monday, it won't mean too much that we closed the week at 1230.
Overall, because of all the above signals, and despite a possible upwards short term correction, I am rather bearish on gold, short on gold because I can put a stop loss not too far above, and above some resistances which are dinamically heading downwards.
I don't know if I'm right, but I don't see a bullish interpretation at the moment. If someone can see the opposite on the charts, you are welcome.
Is Hedge Fund behaviour ( especially since it is reported after the fact) a Leading or a Lagging Indicator?
ReplyDeleteWolf Wisdom;
DeleteIt is both! In other words, hedge fund activity reflects THE SENTIMENT of this very large and primary driver of market price direction. At some point, however, their activity becomes imbalanced and then one begins to look at them as a LEADING indicator for a reversal.
The difficulty in doing the latter however is that defining an imbalance is very subjective and fraught with peril since no one really knows how to objectively saw when a market is imbalanced.
We do our best to use other indicators to gauge that but I will admit it is more an art than a science at times.
A word of appreciation for Dan whose cautionary admonitions are there to prevent us making complete fools of ourselves, and going out sailing in the midst of a howling gale Thank you for the time and trouble, as well as expertise.
ReplyDeletePeter Dykes;
DeleteThanks for those kind words.
I will be the first to admit that I do not always get it right. I have trades that will go against me from time to time. What I have learned however is to recognize quickly when I am wrong and GET OUT of the way before I get hurt too badly.
Back when I was a novice trader I lost so much money that it is a wonder I ever survived at all. After getting my teeth kicked in often enough, I learned some humility and also learned that the market could care less about my opinion.
That is why it is so easy for me to see the same self-defeating attitude that infects so many of these rabid gold bugs. Their problem is THEY NEVER LEARN. they merely dig in deeper and deeper instead of wising up and learning to admit they were wrong and moving on to become more successful.
Harvey Organ just surfaced on an interview with Greg Hunter. I don't know much about Harvey Organ but it looks like he's confederate with a few members of the silver (and gold) coalition of websites. This guy is beating the air now that price of gold will be $10,000 by January 1, 2015 and silver will be $200. Time to load up on some paper maybe?
ReplyDeleteWant some more kooky news items? Take a look:
The News UNIT
New Unit;
DeleteMy concerns are the exact opposite when it comes to the metals. I worry about deflationary winds gaining force and creating the same sort of collapse in prices that we saw back in 2008, prior to the onset of the QE programs.
It looks to me like what is taking place is that stocks are the only game in town as far as yield. That has lead to lots of leveraged bets on equities as money has come out of commodities due to slowing growth.
If equities begin to falter, we could see an unwind of those leveraged bets.
Remember what happened to not only stocks, but commodities back in 2008 and what happened to the US Dollar. The latter rose while the former collapsed lower in price as all the longs ran to the exits at the same time.
We all thought ( or at least I did ) that gold would perform as a safe haven back then and would soar in price as a safe haven. Instead, it was sold off to gain liquidity to meet margin calls and close out bad trades.
It was not until the Bernanke led Fed introduced QE that gold recovered.
Who is to say that the same thing might happen again should we experience any sort of big "risk aversion" trade?
I honestly do not know.
Like I have said many times here, much to the confusion of the perma gold bulls - I own physical gold for insurance reasons and recommend so do others. I am happy to own it but I am certainly not rooting for it to soar in price as some of these perennial snake oil salesmen are doing. The reason is simple - the world, society and everything else around us will be so miserable that very few of us will welcome those things which must inevitably accompany a gold price of that magnitude.
News Unit; I listened to Organ and would recommend that all the fine posters hear listen to it also, IF they have 30 minutes to WASTE. What a donkey.
DeleteJasper
ReplyDeleteCan't get into the thread so responding here.
The Jim Sinclare remark about gold trolls puzzles me. Went to the site and read it in context and all I can say is What?
Maybe he is getting feed back from unhappy share holders. Other wise it's too out of line to credit.
Sinclair is getting a lot of f3edback not just from shareholders for not delivering promises and enriching himself and the board instead, also from the poor folks that got ruined by taking his disastrous advices seriously.
DeleteJim considers them all trolls to be treated with contempt.
Dan, on a lighter note and in reference to what I think I might have mentioned some time ago, a couple of your posters (East Coast) , mentioned that all they were seeing were brand new cars and trucks on the road. Well, to repeat, here in the Reno/Tahoe area, that is all we see. And this in a market that in 10 years has gone from 3rd in the country to 8th or ninth? The industry is oversupplied and continues to contract. The only call I ever made that turned out correct was some 25 years ago when California opened up the Pandora's Box for gaming. Sure, they started as bingo/tent operations, but look now!!! And now, I am seeing houses and in fact new developments starting up! How can that be? Sure, Sparks won the Tesla Battery Factory operation, but come on. I think there is more to the Car Subprime issue than people recognize. Maybe I am FOS. Is everybody getting bullish at the top again?
ReplyDeleteHubert, are you still short S&P? A break to 1700 would not change anything from a secular standpoint, imho.
Good weekends to all.
T
Steve Brassey;
ReplyDeleteI think it all comes down to the jobs situation Steve. I do not see how US consumer spending can be sustained at the kind of pace needed to put up some really strong growth numbers without more good paying ( not part time or in the hospitality or restaurant industry) and good pay increases. Global growth is slowing or remaining relatively modest at best.
Monetary policy can only do so much, what is needed is policy at the national level that is friendly towards business. We currently have an administration that is hostile towards business and whose policies are crimping what growth we do have.
By the way, I put out a small short line on the S&P Friday. We'll see if I do any good with that or get forced back out like what has happened to me many times already. Maybe I can make a bit of money, even if it is a small profit. Could be dumb luck! I am ahead on the trade so hopefully the worst I can do is break even at this point.
If the market collapses ( fat chance) and I make a huge profit, I will buy a great ski boat and christen it "Short Emini" and take you for a ride with my family. Mark can buy the lunch at some eatery on the lake with all the money he made from being long palladium! :o)
Dan, it is smoke and mirrors for 66 mos now, but it is what it is and our boy Mark has been right. But I think when he talks about the consumer being stout that he is saying it tongue in cheek, no? He did beat me out of a steak dinner on the palladium, which I was early on, which is typical of me. I do not think you can put a 9 in front of it again, but it was the year long leader for sure. You and Hubert are probably right on stks, just as long as Janet does not upset the applecart and go a little dovish this week! ttyl
DeleteKid Dynamite's take on obvious and unusual trading patterns in gold... ;-)
ReplyDeletehttp://kiddynamitesworld.com/historic-summer-gold-manipulation/
perma bulls have selective memory deficiency and they love to cherry pick time frames for their beloved yellow metal. but what we always have to remember is that they know everything positive about the East and everything negative about the West and there is no in between. plus, most importantly, they also know everything about currencies, commods, geopolitical events and of course Peak Oil, right? If you don't think they aren't the smartest guys in the room, just ask them.
ReplyDeleteZhang, where do you keep that suitcase? Under your bed? My grandfather, a famous doctor who lived in South Africa nearly 100 years ago, also had a chest of gold under his bed. One of his servants tipped off some thieves, who entered his house, beat him on the head, and made off with the loot. He never recovered from the shock, whether from being hit on the head or from losing his gold I am not sure, and had to be looked after by his brother for the rest if his life.
ReplyDeleteIf you want girlie pictures I can forward some links, and let me tell you, KWN AIN'T one of 'em!
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, if you had the foresight to hide your assets in gold after the 1949 Communist Revolution, and didn't have your secret beaten out of you, then you could have emerged completely intact 50 years later. Or maybe you were living in Germany in Weimar times, or were a refugee who had to leave Germany in the 1930s in a hurry and wisely buried your gold, it would have been your salvation. Not so lucky were those wily Romans who had to flee Britain around the year 400 AD, but didn't figure that having buried their gold they would not be able to get back to reclaim it. In recent years a number of hoards of buried gold have been discovered 2000 years later. What bank could offer such reliable service?
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteAny chance we could a silver chart? Was curious what the next support levels were. Thanks
ReplyDeleteOne more word of caution. As a financial advisor ( I take it you are one), is it not good advice to tell no one anything about what you have, especially when it comes to gold? You don't have much in the way of gardens out there, as I gathered from my peregrinations in the East.
ReplyDeleteCan you pull up the prices of all the stocks that comprised the DOW when gold was $35 an oz ?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Some interesting stuff coming down the pipe next week
ReplyDeleteNext Week's Top-5 FX Events
Bank of England Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
FOMC Rate Decision and Testimony from Janet Yellen
Swiss National Bank Rate Decision
ECB TLTRO operation
Scotland Referendum
EUR/USD: Poised for a Rebound
IMHO, 1205$ is free to test in coming days.It ready a big down move from 1392$ on the day Putin took Crimea to 1205$. After that I really don't know what level Gold can sink
ReplyDeleteI don't know anyone who wouldn't agree with that. So it's doubtful that it will happen.
DeleteWhy why why????
ReplyDeleteI think the real strong support is 1220$
ReplyDelete