I wanted to start off with a weekly chart to provide a bit of a longer term perspective before moving in for a closer look at the daily and even shorter time frame charts.
On the weekly chart, using the Directional Movement Indicator (one of my favorites as it is an old, but reliable friend), you can see that the Negative Directional Movement Indicator ( RED LINE ) remains above the Positive Directional Movement Indicator ( BLUE LINE ) as it has been since late in 2012. In other words, the BEARS REMAIN IN CONTROL of the gold market despite gold's heroic performance this past week.
The ADX, the trend indicating line, is moving lower showing that the defined downtrend has been interrupted after it showed a slight rise forming on the failure to extend past $1,350 in late October 2013. So how do we interpret this?
On this intermediate time frame, no trend currently exists with the bears dominating. We would need to see the directional indicator lines cross and reverse dominance to realize a shift of control in favor of the bulls. That has clearly not occurred on this time frame.
Also notice that the 30 week moving average has been a good defining parameter for the metal at this time frame. It has served as support when the market was moving higher as can be seen from looking over to the left hand side of the chart. Retracements in price were held at this level as buying emerged.
During the sideways phase that lasted for all of 2012, the weekly moving average was not of much use ( moving averages NEVER ARE during sideways or consolidation phases ) but once price started trending lower in early 2013, it did serve to cap all rallies on the upside as can be seen occurring between July 2013 and the end of the year. Currently price can be seen approaching this level from down below. Also note that the moving average has stopped heading lower and is turning up. That is a friendly sign to the bull's cause but as noted above, the DMI is not yet indicating a bullish victory on this time frame.
Let's pull in to a bit closer term look by using the daily chart/.
This presents quite a different picture. Notice that the Positive Directional Indicator ( BLUE LINE ) is decidedly ABOVE the Negative Directional Indicator ( RED LINE ). Translation - Bulls have seized control of the market on the shorter time frame.
If you look a little closer you can see that the ADX line has stopped moving lower and is actually turning higher as the price moves higher. That is a good sign for the bulls as it indicates that they have the potential to turn this into an upside trending move if they can continue to follow through on the upside buying. The ADX remains below 25 however so I would not yet call the market as being in an uptrend. Some technicians like to see the ADX above 30 before stating a trend has formed but I am a bit more aggressive and will look at the 25 level. By the way, this is more of an art form than an exact science so do not write this down in stone.
Notice that this same 30 period moving average has been a decent level to watch as it provides overhead resistance ( see the left side of the chart ) for price rallies. Price has popped above it and is sitting right at a band of overhead chart resistance. It pushed past the top of the band on Friday but fell back.
From a fundamental perspective, if these emerging market credit concerns greet the market Sunday evening and Monday morning, one would expect gold to punch through and move higher. ( Remember the side note I stated repeatedly not too long ago and that gold needed something to dispel CONFIDENCE to kick it higher). That is what happened this week with the currency/credit issues in emerging markets.
Here is how I am looking at this right now - traders with a shorter time frame perspective should go with the flow on the daily but keep in their mind that the intermediate term chart shows a market with a BEARISH pattern. That means rallies are going to be viewed as SELLING opportunities until the weekly chart becomes positive. At that time, the mentality should change and dips should be bought.
Let the longer term charts guide your "big picture" view when you trade. If you are nimble and can move into and out of the market quickly, you can trader on much shorter time frame intervals. Just understand what you are doing and don't get caught up in all the usual hype that will start back up once again now that the metal has moved higher and improved the short term charts. STAY OBJECTIVE and ignore the voices. Let the charts guide your decisions.
