Trader Dan's Market Views: 01/14/14

"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput

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Tuesday, January 14, 2014

And... the next Day

Here we go again - another day of yo-yo action from the day before...yesterday the sky was falling as Goldman noted stocks were expensive. Today... everything is okay once again and all is well with the world. I had the feeling that we were going to see another one of those bear traps in the equity markets. It basically boils down to the fact that if you have any profits from playing the S&P from the short side on a daily trade, TAKE THEM, while you can because the perma bulls are simply not going to stop buying every single dip. Why not? They keep getting rewarded for doing. Pavlovian? YEP!

With that, those safe haven trades that were scurried into yesterday... well, they are yesterday's news. As Yoda might say; "No longer needed, are they".

Down went the Japanese Yen and down went the bonds and up went interest rates. The Dollar ticked higher and with the combination of all the above, plus the more important fact that gold failed precisely at the bottom of the resistance zone noted on the chart, down went the yellow metal. Traders who had been long and played the short term recovery, wasted no time in bailing out once they realized that the market was not going any higher.

While the market has retreated from its first try at that very tough overhead resistance level, it is holding support near $1,244 - $1,240. I am noting that volume has picked up as the price has retreated whereas yesterday it was comatose in the gold pit.

If this support level gives way, I am most anxious to see how the metal reacts as it nears $1,225 - $1,220 again. If it bounces up and away from that, it would be constructive and would tend to confirm that recent bottom. If nothing else, it would at least set up a range trade for the short term with the big specs probably bidding it up to see if they can recapture $1240 - $1244.

I am unclear on what the next move or direction will be at this juncture. My position is very small consequently as I think any trader who wants to bet the farm on gold's next move is masochistic. You have to respect the larger term trend and that remains lower with the bears still holding the edge in this market but bulls are trying to flex their muscles.

Asian demand had better hold firm. I am going to be watching closely to Chinese demand once buyers have secured their inventories ahead of the Chinese New Year festivities. That demand has been strong but it was also very price sensitive. My concern is that once the festival buying is over, value based buyers are not going to be in a hurry to chase prices higher but will rather wait to see how sales were and whether or not to restock immediately or wait a bit for prices to recede.

It is unfortunate for the friends of gold that the gold mining shares are sinking once again, in spite of the stronger equity markets. GG is getting hurt by that takeover bid of theirs. I hope the hell they know what they are doing. Management in this gold sector scares the hell out of me.