Please click on the following link to read my interview with Eric King on the KWN network about today's price action in both gold and the gold shares.
Wednesday, May 23, 2012
Continuous Commodity Index - Fed Operation "Push Down Commodities" Successful
I have been convinced for some time now that the Fed is growing increasingly concerned about the impact from both the Eurozone and the slowdown in China on the US economy. The swooning equity markets in the US ( the S&P 500 is almost negative on the year as of the low today) are heralding investor fears and uncertainty over when the next round of stimulus might be coming.
Yet the Fed continues to remain relatively silent when it comes to committing to any definitive date for another round of bond purchases even as the yield on the Ten Year Note is now close to 1.70%, having clearly broken below the critical 1.8% level last week.
I have maintained for some time that the Fed fully understands the impact that another round of QE will unleash on the commodity markets and is therefore attempting to see these markets driven lower before engaging more actively in QE talk. As stated many times here already, the danger they face in this gambit that they are playing is a collapsing stock market. One wonders just how much more downside they are going to try to squeeze out of the commodity markets before stepping in.
If you notice on the chart below, the CCI has one more line of support near the 500 level, which is the 38.2% retracement level of the entire rally from the 2008 low. If that does not halt the decline in the commodity world in general, then it is quite conceivable that the index could fall all the way to the 50% retracement level near 438. That level is also reinforced as technically significant as it is near the lower tine of the pitchfork drawn off the 2001 low and 2008 high, an area where we can expect to see some buying emerge.
While one can see that the long term macro trend on commodity prices remains higher, the intermediate trend is lower as is the minor trend which can be clearly seen on a daily chart.
For the silver guys out there, you will need to see this chart show some definite signs of bottoming before silver can be expected to start any sort of uptrending move.
Yet the Fed continues to remain relatively silent when it comes to committing to any definitive date for another round of bond purchases even as the yield on the Ten Year Note is now close to 1.70%, having clearly broken below the critical 1.8% level last week.
I have maintained for some time that the Fed fully understands the impact that another round of QE will unleash on the commodity markets and is therefore attempting to see these markets driven lower before engaging more actively in QE talk. As stated many times here already, the danger they face in this gambit that they are playing is a collapsing stock market. One wonders just how much more downside they are going to try to squeeze out of the commodity markets before stepping in.
If you notice on the chart below, the CCI has one more line of support near the 500 level, which is the 38.2% retracement level of the entire rally from the 2008 low. If that does not halt the decline in the commodity world in general, then it is quite conceivable that the index could fall all the way to the 50% retracement level near 438. That level is also reinforced as technically significant as it is near the lower tine of the pitchfork drawn off the 2001 low and 2008 high, an area where we can expect to see some buying emerge.
While one can see that the long term macro trend on commodity prices remains higher, the intermediate trend is lower as is the minor trend which can be clearly seen on a daily chart.
For the silver guys out there, you will need to see this chart show some definite signs of bottoming before silver can be expected to start any sort of uptrending move.
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