Thursday, April 7, 2011
Gasoline sets yet another fresh 33 month high
The chart speaks for itself.
Consider that this reflects the cost of transportation for all goods and products to their final destination. Just imagine what Fed-Ex, UPS, DHL and the railroads and airlines are now dealing with....
The chart for heating oil (closest approximation to jet fuel) looks basically the same.
Don't worry though, the President just tells us to forget about all this and get rid of our vans and SUV's and drive one of those rubber-band driven, oversized go-karts.
Consider that this reflects the cost of transportation for all goods and products to their final destination. Just imagine what Fed-Ex, UPS, DHL and the railroads and airlines are now dealing with....
The chart for heating oil (closest approximation to jet fuel) looks basically the same.
Don't worry though, the President just tells us to forget about all this and get rid of our vans and SUV's and drive one of those rubber-band driven, oversized go-karts.
Crude Oil on track for a run at $150?
Based on Fibonacci retracement analysis, crude oil has but one barrier left before it is on track for a potential run towards its all time high near the $150 level. It has already managed two consecutive weekly closes above the critical resistance level near $103.80, which is the 61.8% retracement level from its 2008 high and its late 2008 - early 2009 low. Generally we want to see two consecutive closes above a major resistance level to confirm the breakout is valid. A strong close tomorrow in crude would be the third such consecutive close. That would set up the run towards the last barrier near the 75% retracement level at 118.79. Should crude push through this level for two consecutive weeks, it would be poised for an assault on its all time high.
The implications for the economy are obvious should this occur.
As you know, rising crude oil prices have heretofore been treated by the long bond market as deflationary and has actually worked to push bond prices higher or yields lower. It seems to me that a shift in sentiment has taken place in that market with the bonds now reacting as one would expect them to act in an inflationary environment, namely by moving lower. Keep in mind that the Fed is still in there buying bonds every week as part of their QE2 program. They picked up $22 billion this past week. If the bond market truly does begin moving lower in anticipation of a wave of inflationary pressures, the Fed is going to have its work cut out for it.
The implications for the economy are obvious should this occur.
As you know, rising crude oil prices have heretofore been treated by the long bond market as deflationary and has actually worked to push bond prices higher or yields lower. It seems to me that a shift in sentiment has taken place in that market with the bonds now reacting as one would expect them to act in an inflationary environment, namely by moving lower. Keep in mind that the Fed is still in there buying bonds every week as part of their QE2 program. They picked up $22 billion this past week. If the bond market truly does begin moving lower in anticipation of a wave of inflationary pressures, the Fed is going to have its work cut out for it.
Japan Earthquake news sparks some unwinding of the Yen carry trade
News that another earthquake has struck Japan sent some of the hedgies unwinding yen carry trades as a bit of a move away from risk. Both the US Dollar and the Yen popped higher on the news with some weakness being seen across the commodity sector in selective markets.
The move higher in the Yen caused some weakness in the gold price and took silver down off its best levels but it appears that some of the short covering in the Yen is already abating.
The move higher in the Yen caused some weakness in the gold price and took silver down off its best levels but it appears that some of the short covering in the Yen is already abating.
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