It's Monday afternoon and that means its time for the latest batch of data from the USDA. Coming at the end of a day in which we witnessed some very strange and inexplicable ( from my fundamental point of view) big selloff in the Dollar and melt up in the commodity sector, perhaps this bit of fundamental data will take some of the zaniness out of the markets tomorrow, at least as far as the grains go.
Let me give you an example of some of the madness today:
1.) Coffee up 6.92%
2.) Sugar up 3.28%
3.) Copper up 1.25%
4.) Soybeans up 3.29%
5.) Corn up 2.86%
6.) Silver up 3.03%
7.) Hogs up 3.06%
You get the point - whatever fundamental shift in the supply/demand equation that occurred since Friday and this morning was something I apparently did not read.
This is what happens when the hedge fund computers go beserk on a macro trade. Dollar - Down; BUY everything not nailed down.
Let me make a point here once more and get it out of the way. You will not hear a single peep out of the gold perma-bull crowd ( or the silver perma-bull crowd for that matter) about "manipulation" on a day like this. Why is that? Because their metal gods went higher, that is why. You see - that is normal in their minds. What is not normal is when the metal gods fall lower.
What they conveniently overlook however is that it is the SAME hedge fund computers that are doing the buying today that are also doing the selling on the big down days.
The point to take home is not "manipulation" but rather the new nature of our markets. They are run by machines - pure and simple - and these machines know nothing of skill or finesse when it comes to entering or exiting positions. They merely fire off their orders, whether it be to sell or as in today's case, to buy, and they do it automatically, ferociously and blindly based on how they are programmed.
For today, it sure looks as if the trade involving buying the Dollar and selling commodities was picked for some ripe apples and gave a whole lot of shorts a bloody nose.
Once the machines were able to bring prices up high enough to catch the buy stops, especially those of the general public and the small trader, the result was a huge buying frenzy from panicky shorts and the usual bottom pickers.
Whether or not this is reverses tomorrow remains to be seen but I suspect this is going to end up being a short-lived event. Unless I managed to miss something which I have not yet managed to discover.
That brings me to the world of the grains which experienced one of those mini melt-ups across their sector today. The catalyst was supposedly the rainy weather which will work to hinder the harvest but in my mind, that is just an excuse that some unfortunate wire service reporter had to come up with from his sources to explain the wild price action. The truth is more technical in nature for once the buying refused to let up as the Dollar continued weakening, it is just a matter of time before the hunters found the stops that they were looking for. It is no secret that the public is overwhelming short and bearish on the grains and those were the ones whose upside buy stops the bigger traders ( especially the pit locals) were gunning for.
Welcome to the world of commodity trading!
On the USDA reports however -
Let's start first with corn:
Amazingly, the condition of the crop managed to yet improve once more. I did not think that was possible this time of the year. What I am referring to is the percentage rated Good/Excellent. The number is unchanged from last week's reading of 74% but how it got there is interesting. The percent rated EXCELLENT actually gained 1% to 24% taking that from the Good category which dropped to 50% from 51%.
I do wonder however how much traders are going to pay attention to these ratings at this point in the season as they are more interested in harvest progress and crop maturity as they keep one eye on the weather forecasts.
Along that line, the corn crop made some very good progess over the past week. 77% of the crop is now rated mature compared to 60% last week and the 5-year average of 81%.
Harvest is at 17% compared to 12% last week and the 5-year average of 32%. This is what has the trade a bit in a tizzy and why the corn market is still carrying some weather premium. Iowa is only 5% harvested compared to its 5-year average of 26%. Minnesota is at 5% complete versus its 5-year average of 20%. It's essentially the northern tier of the country that has caught some focus.
I have maintained that the reason for the lag in crop maturity this year ( in some areas of the belt ) is actually on account of the ideal late-season growing conditions that we experienced. That kept the plant from shutting down as it normally does and instead kept it green and lush and growing. In my view, this will lead to very large kernel size and heavier ear weights which will boost the overall size of the final crop. It is going to take some time however to prove out my thinking on this.
For now, the trade is just looking at the harvest percentages at face value and is not giving much, if any, consideration to the incredible yields that are being reported from areas that have been harvested.
Essentially the same holds for the soybeans - the percentage of the crop rated Good/Excellent actually increased from last week's reading of 72% to 73%. The boost came from another 1% of the crop moving over to the Excellent category which is now at 20% compared to last week's reading of 19%.
On the maturity front - this last week was a big one for speeding the crop along. Iowa in particular showed a nice jump to 85% dropping leaves from last week's 65% reading. That compares to the 5-year average of 86% so as you can see, the maturity issue for beans is becoming less of an issue there. Illinois is at 83% compared to last week's 68% and the 5-year average of 82% so it has now moved ahead for the first time this year. Same goes for Indiana ( I am noting the big three "I's"); it jumped to 88% dropping leaves from 76% last week and its 5-year average of 87% - again this is ahead.
The overall national standings at 83% of the crop dropping leaves compared to 69% last week and the 5-year average of 84%.
Harvest is at 20% compared to 10% last week and the 5-year average of 35%. Again, just like the corn, this is what has some traders in a tizzy right now.
Iowa in particular is slow on the harvest as they are at 9% compared to the 5-year average of 42%. Illinois however is a bit better with harvest there at 18% complete versus the 5-year average of 32%. INdiana is at 18% also with its 5-year average at 30%.
All in all, this report is pretty much what the trade was expecting with perhaps corn coming in the lower end of expectations for harvest pace and beans on the upper end. Weather forecasts will thus be closely watched to determine when farmers can get into their fields.
Based on what I can see from the current forecasts, there will be regional windows open this week across the belt with more rain expected in the latter part. Harvest will continue to lag the 5-year average as a result but as of now, there is nothing to indicate that we will experience any quality issues.
My biggest concern is not quality nor is the slow pace of harvest but rather where we are going to put all of this grain once it is harvested. I am very serious about that.
Another complete report as to be expected, Dan. Big picture points south but we all need to survive the short term in order to get there. Tomorrow will be interesting, as if today was not.
ReplyDeleteI read from a Goldbug that the dollar's reversal was due to the 'market' finally realizing that the job's report on Friday was not that good and the US economy is very poor……. LOL, always a reason to buy gold!!!**** BUT, if you look at the major currencies affecting the US DOLLAR, the Euro was clearly due for the pullback eventually. The USD/JPY ran up against a significant resistance region at 110. The AUD/USD is also at a very serious multi-year support at ~0.870. It may take some force to break these, and when it does, could send the dollar much much higher. Several commodity indices are also approaching multi-year support regions - that may attract a nice bounce throughout the commodity spectrum. SO, I'd say that commodities are not out of the woods yet.
ReplyDeleteitems mentioned for the Ags move:
ReplyDeletea) interpretation of the cot report that funds were not as short as expected, and that fresh shorts were underwater.
b) there was a 'killer frost' across northern parts of the belt that ended the 'growing season' at those places... the low usda soybeans stocks number allows for a bounce on any weather news like this.
c) they won't plant corn next yr if the B/C ratio stays like this.. costs way more to plant corn than to plant soybeans.
definitely will be piles and piles of corn/beans laying on the ground this harvest- elevators are said to be already full, and rail transport problems have been noted.
really a great couple sessions of movement in many futures issues that we can trade! (and that ain't the hyper thin livestock mkts haha)
cheers!
77;
DeleteLet me make a quick point about the Bean/Corn ratio and the planting decisions.
First - if that was the reason that corn was supposedly rallying today ( and I do not believe that it was) that would necessitate bean prices falling and lagging corn as the market tries to "buy" acres for corn in S. America.
As you can see, beans went on a wild tear higher of more than 3X the gain for corn. So I think we can safely scratch point c.)
In regards to the planting... let's just use a farm of 1000 acres and ignore the various input costs for now.
If we use a modest 150 bushels per acre yield for corn, ( that is low ) , that would produce a crop of 150,000 bushels. At $3.32 for corn, that is a gross of $498,000.
If beans are instead planted, using a yield of 48 bushels, ( which is what many private forecasters are expecting for this year), that is a crop of 48,000 bushels. At today's price of $9.42 bushel, that is a total gross profit of $452,160 or $45,840 less than from growing corn.
Of course this does not allow for expenses but I think you get my point.
My own view is that today's rally was a big short squeeze that hit nearly every single commodity market out there and that the reporters were looking for reasons to explain a rally of that magnitude and were left grasping for straws.
I think the guys calling for long term bottoms in corn and in beans are simply incorrect. Unless we get something more severe than some weather related harvest delays, this is a consolidation in the market while it waits for the harvest to continue.
What made it look like something more was the fireworks related to the macro funds and the weaker Dollar.
Old crop supplies are really not the issue any more at this point in the growing season. Look at the harvest progress in the Delta. It is flying.
here's the piles and piles:
ReplyDeleteHal Reed, chief executive officer of the Andersons Inc , a major grain handler in Toledo, Ohio, said his company is already piling grain at its elevators in Tennessee and other mid-South states even before harvest moves north into the main Corn Belt.
"We still believe the actual yields will continue to grow from where USDA has them at now. The corn crop is as good as any I've ever seen," Reed said.
Surplus corn is often held in temporary piles of 200,000 bushels or more covered with tarpaulin waiting for trains or barges to ship the grain out, but this year transportation has been hard to find as shale oil competes for space on rails.
"There are going to be piles and piles. The stampede will start about Oct. 20,"
http://af.reuters.com/article/idAFL2N0RZ00R20141006
77;
DeleteYes, that is similar to other reports that I have read. The yields from some of these regions is mind-boggling. Remember, that stocks report showed even more old crop corn sitting around than the market expected which just compounds the storage issue further. That stuff does not have an infinite shelf live and it needs to be moved, pronto.
Wouldn't it be funny if this "bumper crop" got stranded in bad weather due to inadequate storage and spoiled.
DeleteWorld record harvest instantly turned into world record stink pile, LOL......
Gotta love the "boom and bust" commodity cycles.
Hi Dan
ReplyDeleteAny insights into nat gas? Winter's coming and I expect it to break north and out of this 6 mth trading range soon.
Thanks,
FlurplePete
Flurple;
DeleteI rarely trade natural gas except for maybe a one or two day jaunt into that market. I simply cannot keep track of the markets that I regularly trade if I try to trade too many of these things. One can get a severe case of vertigo watching prices move across that many markets at the same time, especially on a day like today, which was a trip to the madhouse.
Flurple
DeleteChris at Technical Traders thinks Natural Gas may break down through that attractive trend line it is bumping against. He has a pretty good record in Nat Gas. Gote a nice gain last year.
I would suggest waiting or a very small position and a tight stop. I am waiting. B
NatGas is sideway in a large range.DeMark Sequencing bearish. ADX/DI bearish cross.4.200 strong resistance
DeleteIf algorithms can be nervousness personified via reflecting the input tendency to try to make a billion dollars a second like the good ol'days when securitization of debt was the norm and any losses were left for public funds to absorb then this is short term manipulation with computer vs computer trading. You will get squashed like a bug trying to use fundamentals as a lone trader.
ReplyDeleteIf painting canvas with good jobs numbers was supposed to help people get reelected then today it rained before the paint was dry. In the months ahead, the numbers will be revised multiple times and still not show (any) part time work hours being used to count as full time employment but somehow life is always wonderful in Cumalot.
anonymous;
Deletesadly the jobs situation is not going to change for the next two years or until we get another administration. That being said, depending on who replaces the current occupant, it might not improve!
We need business friendly policies. That could start with approving the Keystone pipeline and opening federal lands for oil and gas exploration. Also obamacare is an albatross around the neck of small business America.
\There is so much potential in this nation but it is currently having a lead weight sitting on top of it preventing it from rising.
FWIW, gold had a good day.
ReplyDeleteHowever, the currencies had an even better day.
Result?
Gold is now rolling over in foreign currency terms. The only way this will change is if gold rises faster than the Yen, Euro, Pound, etc.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?GLD:FXE,GLD:FXY,GLD:FXC,GLD:FXS,GLD:FXA,GLD:FXB,GLD:FXF|D
Worse yet, oil is now officially crashing in every currency now, as oil pretty much went nowhere while the non-dollar currencies rallied. So now it is the foreigners turn to start celebrating and high fiving collapsing energy prices.
As usual, the consumer always wins. Every time.
Can't be good for Norway, oil is about 20% GDP and accounts for 30% of govt. revenue. Who will buy all the Teslas? I'm sure there's a pair trade there somewhere
ReplyDeleteDa- thanks for the comments today, helps to make sense of the wild price action today (ouch!). But would be surprised to see this strong trend in grains end so abruptly... There must be allot of farmers mulling over their harvest/storage options this year. Would be a good year to be in the grain bag business because there should be allot of ad hoc field storage with all the storage/transportation issues going on.
ReplyDeleteWheat was up today but not as much as corn or beans. The hedge funds may still be holding on to the wheat/corn spread trade.
Another plagaristic rip off by The Turd?
ReplyDeleteAnd this time it's Dr. Jerome's work?
http://www.investing.com/analysis/silver:-to-buy-or-not-to-buy-228246
Yeah, the bullshit emanating from Turd Central never ends. The biggest delusion in that article, which is repeated endlessly in Bugland is the demise of the dollar. Putting aside recent dollar strength, which is variable, there is simply no alternative to the dollar as a reserve currency for the foreseeable future.
DeleteDan, can I get your thoughts on any developing downstream problems in the grain complex? It seems to me that once the "pipeline" is full (silos, transportation, etc.), the prices will stabilize (I'm using that as a relative term, of course), albeit at quite a low level. Thoughts?
DeleteRico;
On the downstream problems... think about it this way - we went from tight supplies to record setters on the grains. Railroads unfortunately are not going to make long term strategic railcar decisions based on one single crop year. That tells me that the rail car shortage is going to be an issue for a while especially because the current administration occupant will not approve the keystone pipeline to appease the radical whacko environmentalists. Thus, rail is going to have to move that oil and that is more of a long term thing for the railroads rather than grain cars.
Barges, vessels, etc are going to be hard-pressed to be able to handle all of this. Also, grain elevators do not have the storage space. Fortunately many farmers did use the banner years of 2011 and 2012 ( for those who had crops to sell ) to buy some nice new expensive on-farm storage silos. They will store as long as they can because none of them wants to sell, even now, at current prices. They cannot believe how low prices have gone in the last year or so and thus think high prices must be coming. That is incorrect thinking but old habits die hard among some farmers.
All I know is that we are going to have a lot of corn and beans leftover at the end of this marketing year unless demand surges or price falls low enough to ramp up demand.
I am trying to recall an analogous year but frankly it is hard to do because of the sheer size of both crops. Throw in the fact that feed usage is down because both the cattle herd and pig herds are reduced, and I wonder who is going to use all of this stuff.
Thanks for addressing that!
Deletebuh buh buh Bonds, bad to the bone!
ReplyDeleteUS Banks continue to add heavily to bond holdings, as a surge in deposits and relatively soft loan demand– despite good economic data in the US - compel banks to seek highly liquid and well rated assets.
NQ that 3997 previous peak was a good 'stop & reverse'
today many futures issues are trading a small range, which was called a 'z-day' in raschke book street smarts: so you have the big trend day, now the z-day, and bigger money will go with a break of today's small range later in the week.
tremendous tuesday!
GDX/GLD ratio plummeting to new lows.
ReplyDeleteHorrific collapse
Gold may be holding and due for a short-term bounce. This could continue for a while, and the bulls (toros bravos) will be rushing out into the bullring once again. Never say die! This is just a hunch, because I am a hunch sort of guy, so don't believe a word of it. However, hunches have stood me in good stead for three decades. T/a wise I am a village idiot, but I do follow the work of others, so I am quite prepared to accept that after a bounce of limited duration, down we go again. Is my hunch so strong that I would take a position? Certainly not!
ReplyDeleteTRX is down. Looks like Mr. Spellcheck’s cycles are attacking General Jim’s stock prices again. Pooches…head for cover. Lol
ReplyDeleteKitco’s spot SLV is down and its GLD spot price is up. If all three remain the same towards closing, then that pattern “usually” signals a bigger move is coming; like tomorrow…only in my opinion though.
Sure would be nice to see the volume numbers are today.
These little ups and downs are boarder-line “skynet” insanity.
Dan. Whilst I know you have taken a hammering at the hands of the gold bulls and I completely agree with you about exposing the stupidity (and danger) of their unrealistic price calls I worry that you are in danger of developing a deeply ingrained stance on the opposite side (which I believe is actually at odds with your core beliefs). I hope in spite of all the BS you can retain your objectivity.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, in that context can I offer one piece of analysis which I think may have a big bearing on the Western perception for gold demand. I suspect you already know that for a long time a guy called Koos Jansen has been analysing China's gold consumption and saying that the figures published by the WGC are wrong (and that China's consumption is a LOT higher). I think many people have had doubts about his analysis (including myself). However in the last few days Scotiabank revealed a piece of independent research which came to the same conclusion....
What this research suggests is that China's demand (net of any purchases by PBOC) is currently running above 2000 tonnes pa (which is about 1000 tonnes HIGHER than WGC figures). I believe world gold production is currently around 3000 tonnes pa. so a 1000 ton difference is pretty significant! (Understatement).
Furthermore there are increasing rumours that it is becoming an official policy of the PBOC to increase their gold reserves to a level higher than the US (i.e. above 8000 tonnes). Their last stated holding was around 1000 tonnes (though there is suspicion that they are already around 4-5000 tonnes), but again the shortfall would represent a significant demand.
I suspect that pressure is building for the WGC to review its figures and if they end up moving them closer to the actual figures coming from China then a lot of people could get a big shock.
I know that piece of information may be of no interest to many of the folks here (the actual price movements are all that matter right), but for anyone still interested in untangling the supply:demand fundamentals I think it could be one of the most significant items of news for years.
https://www.bullionstar.com/article/confirmation%20pboc%20doesnt%20purchase%20gold%20through%20sge
Mark H;
DeleteThanks for being concerned about my objectivity. I assure you I will do my best to keep it that way!
Yes, I have seen some of that stuff that you mention but I would say this in response to it: the markets are a lot wiser and a lot more connected than any of the rest of us and if this were true, this would be in the markets even now . That the market is not reacting to it is very telling. I tend to look askance at any analysis that is NOT CONFIRMED by market price action for the simple reason that I stated just above - there are some very well connected people who get information before the rest of us mere peasants and if they come into a market in large enough size and take a position before the speculative herd comes in, we will see it in the market's footprint.
Maybe gold is close to a bottom; maybe not. I really do not know nor do I claim to know like some of the clowns such as Mr. Phony Baloney or Polny. A stopped watch is correct twice a day and even a blind sow can find an occasional acorn. What that tells us is that the gold community has to keep coming up with calls for a bottom and some new theory so that once a definite bottom does form in gold they can claim how smart how clever and how market savvy that they are. Never mind how many false and blown calls and stupid, worthless predictions that they have made before.
To me, and this is meant as no disrespect to you for sharing this - which we all appreciate - I will believe it only after the market price action confirms it. Until then, I view it in the same light as JP Morgan Gold Corner, negative gofo rates, Chinese buying all the gold and silver at the Comex, etc.
Both metals have been in bear markets for three years or so now. they will finally stop going down at some point but even then that does not mean that they are going to launch higher. How many years did both languish going nowhere before 2001?
Thanks again for the post Mark
Dan - As always your thoughts are insightful, measured and respectful. Personally I do not think this information is priced into the market. Almost every talking head on the propaganda services are talking about weak gold demand from China, whereas the reality (based on official numbers correctly interpreted) seems to be the complete opposite. It is the first piece of credible research I have seen based on numbers. You are absolutely right about the price action though - it is the only thing which matters. I think this article is dynamite as it finally brings some credible hard facts/figures to a debate which is so often argued by fanatics. But it is impossible to predict how quickly this becomes common knowledge, how widely accepted it becomes and what it's impact would be. But as someone who tries to make unemotional decisions based solely on fundamentals I thought it was very, very significant.
DeleteBest wishes
Hui is lower today than on Friday when gold was lower than today. I conclude that the general equity markets are putting pressure on mining stocks
ReplyDeleteHUI may be down because of general equity markets but also people may be taking this opportunity to bail out, but they usually get it wrong. HUI may have good short-term potential as it seems to be very undervalued. Mark H talks about Chinese gold demand, and he may be right, but it is all so murky. Only insiders know the truth and we poor slobs just have to surmise. Another 'fundamental' that I just can't get away from is the production cost of gold at $1200 ( assuming this is correct), which could lead to shortages if mines have to close.
ReplyDeleteYea, a short-term potential undervalue could be in the making....maybe
DeleteI bought some TRX a few minutes ago. It's tempting to buy more and even a sizable amount of GDX.
Peter- Obviously above ground gold stocks are much greater than annual mine production--Ironically, gold's price is set by fiat. Equally, silver is probably 10% lower than cost of production -- say $19 for argument (that was the level PAAS set its hedges, which it then promptly removed after taking a beating from farsighted investors). Even now, when Aluminum demand is up, a large part of it is met by stockpiled metal. So I think cost of production (which is itself slippery) is just one factor setting the price of gold.
DeletePeter - if gold mines shut down where would the shortages be? Most of the gold ever mined is still in circulation because gold is not a consumable commodity. The total annual gold production is a very small fraction of gold reserves in existence. The low gold price would most likely effect those miners that have unhedged production. Not sure the "cost of mining" argument has allot of bearing on the price of gold like it would for the price of growing or extracting consumable commodities (grains, energy, meat, etc).
DeleteHi Dan,
ReplyDeleteIs there some explanation you might proffer concerning the dive in gold stocks today. Just curious. I read your blog with as much interest as I read Drudge. You are both an addiction.
AbbeyKnight;
DeleteA couple of things on the miners - first is that there is no sponsorship .In other words, not enough big buyers present to keep prices afloat. That is currently telling us that they expect LOWER gold prices yet to come. That ratio I noted in today's post is the visual. It has absolutely collapsed and is down to the year 2000 levels. That is simply horrendous.
The miners have a pretty good track record of leading the metal so I would not be a happy camper if I was long a bunch of gold right now. Perhaps they will consolidate for a while now and meander sideways but as far as reversing to the upside and soaring into a bull market as some of these people keep preaching, that prospect is fading faster that the sunlight at this time of the year.
Thanks for the kind words. Wow - to rate up there with Drudge is a real compliment! Thanks!
ok people you can go out and refi your mortgage or buy a house.. we got the rates down for you. 30 yr yield hits a 17 month low... two dovish fed head speakers today helped ZB move up a rare full point from the pit open.
ReplyDeletewowo tremendous volatility for 3rd straight session in so many issues that can be traded! gotta love it. guess Dan is going 'MOO-MOO' :)
Funds have bought 15,000 soybeans, 4,000 soymeal, 16,000 corn and 7,000 wheat.
that's a poor close in soybeans, news of a lessening of the rain in soybean country and Dr. Codonnier Brazil Update: estimating that the 2014/15 soybean acreage in Brazil will increase 5% to
31.6 million hectares.
looking at all the rain forecast comments: it looks like the cotton crop will get hurt the worst. corn and beans looks like can delay but not really hurt. there is now freeze in gfs 10/21-22ish.
eur/usd new high o day... patience fishermen let the trends bend!
Reverse H&S on the Euro dollar?
ReplyDeleteIf we break through 1.27 / 1.2730 fibo, maybe we'll finally accelerate upwards towards the top of the downwards channel, currently around 1.3150.
HdH-
DeleteYou prediction was correct…Bo Poly sent out his email saying how e got the triple bottom in gold right. It is now time for "Runaway Gold & Silver" (let's just hope the run up rather than down).
Hubert;
DeleteThe Euro could run about another full point to 1.2780 or so before I would call a bottom in it. I suspect it would be sold rather aggressively were it to reach that level. We'll see however...
MDLGTO;
Yes, another cackler is Mr. Polny. At least the average chicken has enough good sense to WAIT until after she lays the egg before she cackles. The former is a clown masquerading as a trader.
There is nice a very nice H&S on the DAX.
ReplyDeleteWatch out the 9000 level and just below (support), because we may have a real acceleration down.
Of course it would lead SP500 to follow down as well.
SP500 showed last week hints of weakness with 1926 lows and the break of upwards long term support. Now it is confirmed, we are once more under 1950.
Some more thoughts/observations.....
ReplyDelete1) Apparently Russia has spent up to $1.75Bn in the last 2 days to defend the ruble (Bloomberg), It may account for some of the odd $ movements lately.
2) Whilst I said earlier that I thought the information about China's gold demand was highly important, it is only likely to influence pricing if/when it becomes common knowledge. I cannot imagine the WGC doing a brisk about turn on their own figures so it could be some time before it has any material impact.
3) Finally a speculative question for all you chart gurus. IF gold makes a triple bottom here what would that likely mean for future prices? (I am not saying that I believe it is doing that, just enquiring what a triple bottom means)?
Thx