If you want to see what the obstacles are to gold embarking on a new, sustained, sharp upward trending move, take a look at the following set of charts.
The first is one drawn from the Commitment of Traders reports. It denotes the TOTAL OPEN INTEREST. I use this to get a sense of money flows either into or out of, a commodity.
The dark line is the total open interest. Can you see what it has been doing since the peak in the gold price back in 2011? It peaked well over a million contracts of futures, plus options. This week it had nearly fallen to nearly one half of that record level!
What does this tell you? Answer - "interest" in gold as an asset class among Western-based investors has plunged over the last three years.
What has been the result? Answer - the gold price has also plunged.
Inference - speculative demand drives gold prices. If that demand falls, so too does the gold price. If that demand rises, so too does the gold price. There is nothing sinister about any of this as those constantly crying up "manipulation" would have you to believe . It is a function of demand or the lack thereof.
Here is the next chart to consider. It is the reported holdings of the large gold ETF, GLD.
The amount of reported gold holdings in the trust at the end of last year was 798.22 tons. The yet to be updated amount reported as of this Friday's close was 801.84 tons. That amounts to a rather lackluster increase of a mere 3.62 tons in eight month's time. Hardly the stuff of legends now is it?
The point in this is to illustrate SENTIMENT. Frankly as a trader I try not to get too bogged down in intricate details when looking at things like this. I want to try to glean whether or not an asset class is in favor among the big speculators that dominate our markets. If it is, I want to be with them. Trying to fade them and play the "contrarian" is a surefire method to lose money. One has no idea when they are going to shift. You can observe their buying or selling and try to anticipate what they are going to do, but until you get a clear signal, do not act, unless of course you enjoy donating your wealth to them on a regular basis.
There seems to be a mindset among some reckless individuals that a successful trader is "brave, daring to go against the masses and take the other side of a popular trade". They seem determined to prove to themselves how noble they are or some other such nonsense by so doing.
You see it all the time... "prices have fallen so much that it is time to buy". It is said that " a fool and his money are soon parted". That is never so true as in the trading arena, and particularly in the commodity futures world. How do you know that the price cannot fall further? Or how to you know that the price cannot rally higher if you are shorting a market? Answer - you don't. Now of course you can roll the dice and gamble that you are correct but trading is not gambling. I would suggest that if you want to gamble that you exit the trading profession and become a full time player in Vegas. If you are going to lose your money, you might as well do it surrounded by beautiful women and good food and music! It sure beats giving it to some nameless hedge fund manager and his pet computer.
Switching gears here - I mentioned that I wanted to see this week's COT reports for corn to determine whether or not the big speculators were still on the net long ( AND WRONG) side of the corn market or whether they might have finally made the transition to the short side. Guess what? They are still long and wrong! I continue to find this nothing short of astonishing. I have seen a lot of bull and bears markets in the commodity sector in my time but I cannot remember very many of them in which the largest specs had missed out and were on the wrong side of a major trend.
This corn market therefore astonishes me.
Take a look at the chart...
Now look at the positioning of both the hedge funds and the other large reportables. Both of them are still net long
You will observe that the hedge fund net long position peaked in April of this year when corn stalled out near $5.20. Since then it has fallen nearly $1.70/ bushel.
The hedgies began building their net long position back in November of last year when corn prices were in the general vicinity of $4.20. Prices have fallen another $0.70 since then meaning those hedge funds who bought in last November and who are still long are seriously underwater on their trades. One would have thought that once that entry level was violated on the charts, their computers would have taken them out. Apparently not so.
Not to be outdone, the other large reportables have been net long corn since the days of Noah. They too are getting their butts handed to them. The little guys however, the small speculators, the ones that are constantly being mocked by the big specs as being the "dumb money" have been taking the large specs money from them as they have been short this market for a long time.
Obviously I am speaking in generalities in the sense of "categories" since not all hedge funds are losing money ( some are indeed short as are some of the other large reportables) but the point is being made that sometimes even the large specs screw up royally in a trade.
My question at this point is whether or not the big speculators are ever going to actually move to the net short side of this market. They did so in the soybeans but have not yet done so in the corn. If they do, and I have no way of knowing whether or not they will, there is a fair amount of further downside in the corn market. Maybe they will essentially move to being flat and that will do it for their selling but even if they do that, we could easily see corn drop another $0.20/bushel from current levels, if not more.
I would think that end users would look at prices at that level as being so cheap compared to recent years that they would trip over themselves to get long side coverage. Ditto goes for the export buyers but I have learned that low prices can always go even lower. We will just have to watch the price action and see what the market is telling us.
Still, this is one of those charts and years that I am planning on not forgetting. A huge bear market in which the largest speculators have missed the move lower and were on the wrong side with the small speculator reaping the reward.
Good letter as usual Dan. My objectives are $3 corn and $8 beans. The Midwest is a garden of Eden. Brazil and Argentina are gearing up to plant even more. China, who has ruined her environment by over utilizing fertilizer and damming up rivers the wrong way is the only underlying demand argument, and going forward, since she has huge water problems, will always have to import grains and beans, but again, that is a very old and tired story. These are bear mkts, plain and simple.
ReplyDeleteDan- Thanks for the weekend update. You were right about the divergent price action in live cattle after Monday's bullish report being a "warning". The October contract lost as much as 5 points this week. On the daily chart, the ADX has started moving down so maybe the top is finally in for live cattle? Looks like hogs and cattle could have a ways to fall if supply returns with these cheap feed prices.
ReplyDeleteTrinity, it has been an epic bull move in the meats. Easier to rebuild the hog herd than cattle and I think the chart shows that. If these guys did not take protection over the last year, then so be it. Much lower numbers coming.
DeleteSteve- lower prices would be welcomed for those who like to eat brisket and bacon (and for those who are short live cattle and lean hogs).
DeleteTrinity, I love red meat
DeleteSteve and Dan
DeleteWith boneless pork loin at $2.88 and brisket at $3.78 and out of stock I am experimenting with pork loin.
Steve if I had followed Hubert's advice about time frames I would not be in my slightly underwater CORN trade. Keeping the stop tight.
Zhang;
DeleteI did that spread trade many, many times. Oh how I miss the bellies contract. Everyone should have had the chance to finance the locals retirement fund in that pit at least once in their lifetime.
Trinity - those who think gold is "volatile" have no idea what "volatile" means if they have never traded livestock. Those markets can turn on a dime and are brutal if you are on the wrong side. They will eat you alive if you are not careful.
DeleteMike Ehlert;
DeleteKeep it moist buddy. It dries out very easily as there is hardly any fat on it. I use apple cider but I have also used peach juice. Marinate it overnight and do not let your heat get over 275 on the smoker for any length of time.
I cover mine after it gets a nice smoke ring.
Yes Dan I have had a "taste" of that volatility in the short time I have tested the waters in livestock - your advise to "be careful" is heeded and appreciated. It seems all markets have been a little jumpy as of late... Also my chances of making money will be allot higher if I watch the beautiful ladies when I am not trading!
DeleteDan
DeleteThanks for the advise. Used my brown sugar paprika dry rub overnight. Three hours in the smoke then a couple more in foil with cider.
Well done but moist tender and sliceable. Pretty fair but it's not brisket.
Need to get to the store earlier next time.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
Delete""If you are going to lose your money, you might as well do it surrounded by beautiful women and good food and music!""
ReplyDeleteYo, Dan, come on! You would have us believe that real traders don't trade surrounded by beautiful women and good food and music too, next to their giant swimming pool?? Dah...
And Dan, we have lots of pretty ladies, great food and good casinos here in Reno, with I must say, much nicer attitudes than Vegas
DeleteHubert;
DeleteI did formerly trade that way but then the Bank of Japan did not like me shorting the yen a few years ago and sprang forth and obliterated me. After the pretty ladies found out about it, they all mysteriously vanished, and I have pretty much been left trading in my office since then.
Steve - sign me up for Reno....
Hubert;
DeleteThat was my attempt at having some fun with your post. Seriously, there are days that I can hardly look away from the screen for more than a few minutes much less be distracted by all the pretty ladies!
"Seriously, there are days that I can hardly look away from the screen for more than a few minutes much less be distracted by all the pretty ladies!"
DeleteWhat a waste! Send them here...wait a minute, I'm married too :( Good I use a nickname. She doesn't have the same sense of humor for everything :)
"it is time to stop considering women as merely a collection of body parts"
Zhang, absolutely! It is time. When do we start? :) (honey, I'm just joking...and no, I don't know who is this Hubert and why we came to share the same IP address...)
I think I got it, after a deep thought.
DeleteBottom line is that the entire commodity complex in total collapse means there is no chance of any Central Bank anywhere in the world that is going to be stupid enough to raise interest rates.
ReplyDeleteIf anything, I think some trick is going to be pulled to get inflation moving, because this epic collapse in the grains and now in energy must have the "Central Planners" absolutely terrified of a deflationary collapse.
This risk of inflation now is so far fetched, because these commodities completely cratered on their own, with no margin hikes, no "words" uttered by Janet Yellen, and no official jawboning from TPTB.
If the bankers decide to try to re-ignite inflation to u-turn it and get it back to the 2.5% target, they know that with certain that any and all runaway prices can be immediately capped, collared, and arrested with the simple use of "pie-holing" about "price stability".
Never before in financial market history has the consumer enjoyed rocketing stock prices, rising bond prices, ultra cheap credit, and collapsing food and energy prices, and a rising currency, ALL AT THE SAME TIME.
Quite simply, it will go down as one of the most extraordinary modern economic miracles ever experienced.
US debt obligations cannot tolerate any significant rise in interest rates. We are not in the 1980's anymore when Volker was able to tame inflation with higher rates and US debt at MUCH lower levels. The debt levels are now an issue with "this" solution.
DeleteU.S. Debt Obligations??
DeleteRight now TPTB is laughing at that, because financial markets continue to get roiled from time to time, forcing investors to flee to the safety of the U.S. dollar and Treasuries, thereby putting a lid on interest rates.
Not only that, you have the CRB Index with its constant implosions, which always puts the fear of deflation in the minds of the "Central Planners", meaning zero chance of interest rate hikes.
That means:
- Expansion of the welfare class entitlements can be expanded indefinitely
- Future borrowing and rolling over of existing debt continues at absurdly low interest rates, never before seen in our lifetimes
- Now that taper is nearly 2/3 completed, Yellen has huge ammunition to restart QE on demand, in case the SPY breaks below the 200-day EMA
- Central banks and sovereign wealth funds around the world are completely enamoured with U.S. financial assets of every stripe, race, gender, and color, ergo the "relentless bid" under both stocks and bonds
Just think about it.
- The S & P 500 is over 1900
- At the same time, you have interest rates at rock bottom levels.
- With grain prices near decade lows
- And zero inflation in wages or energy prices
- With the greatest economic boom ever recorded still in the 3rd inning, as copper, gold, and silver prices remain resilient
- And the CNN Fear/Greed Index sitting at WORLD RECORD LOWS after a measly 5.4% pullback in stocks.
And all this with certain regions of the world on fire, defaults and bank implosions, seems like nothing can stop the bull market.
"...seems like nothing can stop the bull market."
DeleteFamous last words...
Mark-they may be laughing but at some point if/when velocity picks up and inflation needs to be tamed, raising interest rates to 5, 6, 7% would be a huge burden on (even the existing) debt obligations and will be a problem for the US. Will be interesting to see the market reaction when the IV comes out (October?) and what the next Rx will be. Maybe the patient will be happy to start eating it's broccoli and give up the sugar....
DeleteWho knew they could print their way to prosperity? Guess it works after all?
DeleteOh wait that did not work out so well for other countries did it Mark?
Point is every 1% rise in interest rates adds near 200 billion to the US deficit and debt, higher rates=bankruptcy now.
They could never fight inflation if they got it so they will always try and deny it or call it noisy as Yellen said. They are trapped at near 0% rates.
Raising rates pops the whole debt balloon.
There is allot of media coverage about the prospects of raising interests rates in 2015, but won't the economy will have to adapt to the end QE BEFORE the FED will be able to pull this off? We are still on a QE drip and "so far so good" with the tapering. The conditions Mark points out are noteable. But the US has not been without some sort of QE stimulus for going on over 5 years now. During the end of QE1 and QE2 the stock market has sputtered and the IV was hooked back up by Bernanke. I am a little skeptical that things have improved to the point that Yellen will not only be able to end QE3 this year but ALSO start raising rates next year without some sort of relapse and the need for yet another stimulus program. Time will tell...
DeleteYes not many have mentioned the fact that the Dow tanked 300 points the day after another 10 billion of QE was tapered.
DeleteSo far every time QE ends the stock market goes down.
Perhaps people are heading for the exits again as QE ends.
Seems more likely the market will correct versus continue to rise with the end of the party on the horizon. Until the next party invitation is sent out, the market may not be too happy knowing the the drugs are gone with a hangover to deal with.
DeleteWhen the tide goes out, the Feds liquidity, guess that will show whats real and whats artificial.
DeleteIf everything starts to deflate then probably as you say another party invitation is sent out.
I'm going to be buying calls on the spy as I expect a buy the dip rally 1900. That rally I think will be the bull trap in this market. Whoever times the bull trap will make a fortune. I am very bullish on pm's long term, however, the dollar is strengthening which should put downside pressure on PM's. I think this will be the final shake out in gold and silver. As of now I am short fb, dis, ua. nflx and accumulating cash.
ReplyDeleteZhang
ReplyDeleteYou do far more with a smart phone than I have patience for. I was thinking Computer when I made the suggestion. Sorry it did not help.
Stick to the grains Dan
ReplyDeleteYou are too emotionally involved to comment on the metals
Leave this commentary to The Turd
50yank
50 yank;
DeleteI wanted to ask you for permission to wear socks tomorrow. Since you are in the business of directing my life, I also wanted to know if I could mow the lawn or should I wait for further instructions from you?
Hey, if it makes you happy, I can set forth a litany of expletives towards the bullion banks and how the powers that be are manipulating the gold price. That should do the trick - nice and unemotional and unbiased analysis. But I did want to make sure it would be alright with you first before I would do that so please let me know oh master.
Dan,
DeleteOh, man, it's just *classic* that this dude recommends TF as someone supposedly less "emotionally involved" in the PM markets than you. Keep up the good work, and you have my permission to wear socks for the next week, even mismatched ones if you like.
White sox will do just fine
ReplyDelete50yank;
DeleteI hear and I obey oh master. May I have permission to post a copper chart or a chart of the Dollar? Pretty please....!
I do have a serious question for you - if you are so annoyed by my comments on gold, why are you wasting your time and the time of others here by reading them and then by posting.
Shouldn't you spend all your spare time over at the shrine with the rest of the yellow metal worshippers? I have heard it on good authority that if you sacrifice your first born to the yellow metal god, it will give you your heart's desire.
Let us all know how that goes for ya...
To be blunt, the shit is hitting the world fan with fairly extreme force and I'm not talking just military and gold is lacking in investment demand. What a surprise.. If the Fed and its proxibanks weilded a big stick and kept capping the price of beef, would you invest in cattle? Gold is a direct competitor to confidence in the US dollar so is it really so hard to connect the dots. Don't bother labelling me a gold bug....I like oil just as much but I always have some pm stocks and its irritating to see gold get slammed on no news as much as it does. Good example.....has anyone ever seen gold spike right before the fed two day meeting?
Deletekjm;
Deletethere are two sides of a trade or an investment. The right side and the wrong side. Does not matter what the reason is.
So if the Dollar is such crap, why not buy the Euro or perhaps then Yen, or perhaps the Pound or the Swiss Franc...
The reason that the Dollar is stronger than the rest of the them is due to sentiment towards interest rates here in the US.
Why should gold be moving higher when the rest of the commodity complex is sinking, the stock market is roaring and the Dollar is firm? Answer - no one is worried about inflation right now and since they are not, gold has limited sponsorship among investors. Just learn to follow the money flows and everything becomes clearer - and much easier to understand I might add.
Most of the currencies that you listed above Dan are currencies that could never stand the light of day of higher interest rates.
DeleteThey are effectively bankrupt currencies now that have unpayable debts attached to them.
Its quite amazing watching people run to them for what they think is safety.
Paper currencies with less debt attached to them would seem safer than the Yen or the Dollar etc. long term anyway.
Now Danny - let's be nice to the Turd
ReplyDeleteHe might even send you a hat
50 Yank
I had a Turd hat. A few months later I put it out on trash day.
Delete50 yank
ReplyDeleteAre you what people call "A Troll" or do you have other isdues which we perhaps shouldn't make jokes about?
I'd say there is a 60% chance that 50yank was ironical about Dan being too emotional and leave metal trading to the Turd, and meant exactly the opposite from his first post.
DeleteIt's usually called sense of humor, but with so many gold fanatics, it is sometimes difficult to realize when someone is not serious about what he writes, especially if he is new on the blog.
50yank, Dan is not too emotionally involved to comment on the metals, that is, when he is sober of course, that is, a few days a year, when the swimming pool is under repair and the party must be postponed, naturally. We don't use white socks near a swimming pool during parties though, it's quite ugly.
May I suggest you find a most appropriate gift?
To help you choose, here is the video of a standard trading day at Dan's swimming pool.
Hope it will help.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9hazmsUxrM
What??
DeleteYou would mix a mere pair of socks with trader's Nike club air??!!
http://www.jaldrape.fr/wp-content/uploads/air-max-torch-6-noir-nike-air-max-fluo.jpg
For Hillary, you are totally right, though. She trades beans most of the time in this suit.
btw, if you write "50 yank" on Google picts, the first result is :
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-WX1lR5aOpyE/UG-f-oPiNmI/AAAAAAAACLg/d9RBWEr5jAM/s1600/Stoner-gun-small.jpg
You can come to the party like this, 50 Yank, no need for white socks.
Post, this Yank just showed up a minute ago and obviously is a knucklehead Hoosier; pay him no mind as he probably is a regular over at zerohedge, the stopped clocked all pro site of all time.
DeleteDan,
ReplyDeleteThe last thing in the world that I would want to do is try and correct you. I can tell from your references to Vegas that you assume that all gamblers are losers. That my friend may be the only fallacy that you've ever thought/written. I am one of those Vegas gamblers, and as much as you want to distance yourself from a guy like me professionally, we share more in common than you think as traders/gamblers. I have done nothing in my life but speculate since I was 8 years old. Only in the last seven years have I been paying close attention to the markets, and your writings have been very useful in separating facts from fiction with all the huckster dullards screaming fantasies from every available venue. I'm not thin skinned, and you didn't hurt my little feelings, but I would like you to maybe except the idea that some of the heathens in Babylon like myself aren't exactly degenerates. You may come to realize one day my Trader brother, that we aren't as different as you may believe! Thanks for sharing your brain with us as usual Dan!
oopps... and calling gamblers like that in the middle of the final table of the WSOP...bad timing. Dan, you've just made 6000 players angry :)
DeleteBtw, john, I'm sure you saw that hand, but for some more busy traders here... the buy-in was a mere 1 million dollar!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aR52zv1GqBY
Haha, I love Esfandiari's head when he says "I feel like it might happen"
But john, most gamblers going to Vegas aren't pros, are they?
Well, same for traders, come to think of it.
John Taylor; I am really surprised at your comments. You of all people should know that most gamblers either lose or go broke. Same thing with stk or commod players. Come ON! Like I have said here many times, the real reason is that it is more comfortable losing than winning, which requires responsibility. Why on earth do you think the joints are loaded with machines and not table games>? You may be a dedicated and winning gambler, but most gamblers end up like the donkey Jimmy the Greek, who Dean Martin used to beat up for his lunch money in Steubenville, and died pan handling downtown Vegas. sad but true
DeleteAwesome documentry on a gambler who took the casino for 15 million playing black jack
Deletehttp://mobile.bloomberg.com/video/the-player-secrets-of-a-vegas-whale-p5Yp8AANTVeqa1_MXspl5A.html
Steve,
DeleteYour being really surprised at my comments means you should reread them. All I said to Dan was that he may be surprised to learn that NOT ALL gamblers are losers. Blanket statements/ideas about large groups of people aren't helpful in understanding how different each one of us are as individuals. I take pride who I became as a person because of the circumstances I've faced in this life. It just amazes me how much people look down on guys like me, especially women! Guess that's why I'm still single at in my 40's.
Hubert, Esfandiari and his family lived in my old building at City Center. They are really nice people and he's the perfect example of how you can rise up from nothing with the skills of a great trader in the gambling world.
DeleteJohn Taylor;
DeletePoint made and well taken here my friend. I think I painted with too broad of a brush. I would say that a professional gambler wil not play or bet large when the odds do not favor it. They work the odds. Good ones know when to bet and when to fold or not play.
For me, trading is about FUNDAMENTALS of supply and demand which is why I love the commodity markets and not the equity markets. Commodity prices move on shifts in the supply/demand equilibrium and have real world factors that go into the price discovery mechanism. For me, I consider trading the art of understanding what moves the demand/supply equilibrium. That is different ( in my mind) than a game of craps or blackjack where there is not a set of fundamentals but rather just the odds.
This is also the reason that I trade only certain commodity futures markets. If I do not know the fundamentals in market, I will not trade it. I do not care what the chart pattern is because I do not know the "WHY" behind the movements in price. That is just me and my philosophy of trading. I use TA but only in markets that I first know the fundamentals. Then again, guys like me are a vanishing breed. We are being replaced by system traders. Those guys do not think - they just react to everything.
Oh well... continued good success to you there in Vegas.
I can tell you that I would never be able to make it there or in Reno because of all the distractions!
John, to my point of view, poker is much more difficult to handle than trading actually, that's why, as an amateur in both, I'm sticking on trading and play 10 $ on poker and 10.000 $ on trading :)
DeleteMaybe people who don't know the complexity of such games have a wrong feeling of "not so complicated" and more importantly "random". Of course many times, a great player like Ivey will be kicked out with trip 3 on the flop going all-in to be called by trip 10s.
But a game in poker for those guys is one trade for a trader.
On the long run, their esperance of gain can be spectacular.
I'm not teaching you anything here, of course, as you are there yourself, but just to say it's sad if people look down at you. It's a hard earned money.
Unlike trading, one has to adapt to the player he plays against, and all the other players of the table as a whole. There are so many elements that it gives me a headache just to think about them.
For those who are not familiar, here is a simple article giving a few suggestions about how to defend your big blind in the situation when you would simply call in a texas hold em poker game (there is another article about raising). Yeah...10 pages about just that. And there are 10 thousand variants of poker games...ouch!
http://www.clubpoker.net/defendre-blinds-i-suivant/p-354
And yes, there are so many things in common between a good trader and a good gambler, I totally agree! :)
I just feel trading as so much easier to handle, and more importantly, with less volatility and risk taking.
Take care,
Dan,
DeleteThanks for the reply. Your well aware from my previous posting how much I respect you as a person and an investor. Your a gentleman and a scholar my friend, and I never had a doubt your reply wasn't going to reflect those qualities!
Hurbert,
You summed up my thoughts exactly. Being on both sides now of trading/gambling it's hard not to see the similarities between the two. I agree with Dan also that they are different in their own ways, but like baseball, football, and basketball all have major differences, they are still sports played with balls! Gambling, speculating, trading etc, all share making money with money.
Steve,
Don't take this the wrong way buddy, but I very much admire you. You seem to have the answers to everything and you even live in a better city than me too! Good job and continued success my friend!
Zhang; you made a typo I think regarding the bellies/hog spread trade? Hogs always traded at the Merc, not the Board; also, do you remember Tommy Donovan the greatest bond trader of all time from the 70's/80's? Used to fade the whole floor!!
ReplyDeletewrong, wrong and wrong. hogs always traded at the merc
DeleteZhang, now I am beginning to think that you were never more than a margin clerk; the NY Times once again incorrectly reporting something and you are referencing it; sad, son, sad. And do not even reference Refco, as you probably do not have the slightest idea about how Ray really got his start at the Merc and was able to leave the Sioux City stockyards. You reference London and Singapore and all that shit which I guess you think impresses most Americans, but come on, those are still the minor leagues. We in Chicago and New York have traded and thrown away more contracts than they have ever even tried to develop. Oh, but there is always Dubai, the cultural desert and capital of the world. lol all the way
Deletevery good points, Zhang, and did you know that the North and South Koreans switched sides > WW2? Also, as far as Keith Weiner goes, I do not understand his cobasis arguments. When you go out there 6-12 months and so forth, there is no liquidity or mkt to be truthful, so how can one extrapolate anything? Over my head. Have a good weekend!!
ReplyDeleteZhang, you are absolutely correct; King has no conscience, but when you have limited abilities it is hard to drop one's job and find another. Pretty sad donkey
ReplyDelete"Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
ReplyDeleteYou have to feel for the victim of Ebola, but transporting him to the US is a major roll of dice."
Buy trx take certificates and be protected (from ebola!)
Trx the company that has a chief canine officer rather then a chief compliance officer.
It was only a matter of time before jim would appoint a dog to the board.
i fully expect jim -the guy that posts pictures of sheep that "deeply enjoy their sheering" at the may 2013 lows - to be posting pictures of turkeys by the time the poor sobs that will buy the 2.5 million warrants soon to be exercised are down 70% on their investment.
What a soulless husk of a person.
I am NOT a JS apologist but I must say the Ebola statement is correct.
DeleteThe victim has a better chance of survival here than in any hospital in Africa.
However there is a risk as everything associated with the victim must be perfectly decontaminated or incinerated perfectly. Last I heard perfect was impossible to accomplish.
The MSM is selling it as "No Risk" which is BS IMHO.
Jasper, you are a funny guy!! General Jim is such a donkey; I called him out years ago when he claimed he sold 5000 silver contracts into the close one day in late '79 or early '80. I guess he was counting all his dogs as having accounts, because 5000 was just a wee bit more than position limits allowed back then.
DeleteI remember that. General jim is a pathological liar. I watched that incompetent hack for 4 years now and I can point out hundreds of lies.
DeleteJust for the record, Southern California did get some rain today. Showers and a constant drip drip drip. Some places reporting a quarter inch but mostly much less.
ReplyDeleteMonsoonal moisture up from the South. Some of the Sunday drivers who have forgotten to slow down are getting lessons in traction.
Yes, I live down here, we got some decent rain, and August is notorious for monsoonal flows.
DeleteAs I mentioned last month, the drought is long in the tooth and major relief will be coming soon, ergo the horrific crash in grains and softs which is continuing and ongoing.
We're going to have a killer year in mammoth and lake tahoe...feet of fresh powder this year
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteTrading is not gambling??!! Sorry Dan but I beg to differ with you on that statement. Trading is gambling, investing is gambling and Life is the ultimate gamble. Every decision made has its own odds of success/failure. Even the great Peter Lynch stated that investing in the stock market is gambling with the odds in your favor provided you do sound research and are Lucky...
ReplyDeleteHubert, just a thought here. I am noticing from the monthly charts a very mirror like similarity from the '11-12 top and the current '13-14 bottom pattern. Likewise, all the wise guys have plenty of tired reasons for prices going to 1000, just like at the top they had the number going to 2500 or whatever. Maybe everyone is FOS and we go sideways for another 15 years, but I am beginning to think not. I am starting to get friendly this mkt, as time is running out for prices to break 1180, and we all know that the MAJOR trend is still up. I have no position here, only short corn, beans, Euro, Yen. Take care and good luck today!!
ReplyDeleteHi Steve,
DeleteReally difficult to say.
Gold 2011 top formed after an upwards acceleration which broke above an already strongly upwards channel. So, the warning were there for a correction.
We still have a clear upwards support under our feet on the long term time units, around 1240, but even if it should break, I don't think we could see sub 1000 directly.
The Bollinger Bands on the quarterly time unit show a rising inf Bol already at around 1050 and heading upwards quickly. If prices collapse, it is imho likely that they would provide a good support for them during at least one or two candles.
But once again, it doesn't tell anything about what would happen next.
So...I'm not trying to forecast gold prices. To me, it's totally impossible, just as winning at a high stakes poker table (which I won't try :)).
I have no idea if the bottom is in yet.
I'm trying as you do to adapt to short term price evolutions.
Short-term, all I can say is that it seems to me that the fibo levels I'm following still seem to make some sense, and that gold is within a kind of descending wedge on the daily time unit.
I see a lot of technical obstacles ahead of gold for sure.
So for the moment, I prefer not to limp in the gold pot, and will wait for another hand next week, maybe? :)
Me thinks below 1000 dollars between april - september 2015. Gold never managed to break the march high, is sinking back to the lower boundary of the 1 year consolidation range.
ReplyDeleteAll the wise guys that has plenty of reasons for gold to go to 2500 in 2011, sill have plenty of reasons for gold to go to 2500. They never really wisened up.
All the reasons poisted are still there.
DeleteHigh Debt
Money printing
Religious war
So on and so on.
With no fear of inflatiion and no interest in gold by speculators with big money it will take a disaster of epic size to kick it off. The government types have avoided it so far and I don't see betting against them.
Think Dan is right on this one.
How utterly absurd to compare 2011 with today.
DeleteCare to make a substantial side wager on gold dipping below $1k? If it goes to $1600 first, I'll win; below $1k and you win.
No, that would be utterly absurd. What hasnt changed since 2011 however is loadmouth knowitall goldbugs. QED.
DeleteAh, so you're afraid to back up your opinion with money. Tells us all we need to know about the quality of the prediction.
DeleteWell paul, back up the truck man, what are you waiting for.
DeleteAs for me, il wait for the break which i consider more likely to be to the downside as long as idiots like yourself havent learned their lesson.
Zhang Lan; maybe I am wrong and it will sure as hell not be the last time, as I battle every day.
ReplyDeleteWell looks like Banco Espirito will be rescued with a bailout package on Monday, thus averting any further drop in risk assets.
ReplyDeleteLike I said before.
The Bernanke/Yellen "Financial Miracle" will be studied in depth the next 100 years.
And going forward, any and all crises from here in other countries will be responded to with the Bernanke/Yellen "Final Solution":
INFINITE FIAT
And inflation can be whipped instantaneously with mere jawboning.
Therefore, a license to print as much as possible, whenever it is needed.
sure Mark … BUT all current shareholders are fucked once again … I guess they are going to have to work extra hard to get the sheep back in the barn after the last bunch got slaughtered .
DeleteThats capiralism. There is a miner going bankrupt every day.
DeleteThats a good one coming from you Jasper since you cant stop whining about TRX and peers. Last time I checked the company still around and well , in fact it has become a great trading instrument if you follow it closely . Of all people , you are the last one I would have thought to come with this comments .
DeleteTrx us doing fantastic. Did you know jimmy will be producing before september? Dividends in king comjng your way.
DeleteSeriously there seems no limit to the amount of lies the market tolerates. Im sure the folks that sold their retirement funds and took trx certificates in trx are thrilled to learn its such a fantastic trading vehicle.
Ray will be happy to know he sold the house in texas for good reason. His wifd will be delighted she took up the job again fir good reason. Craig, the broker who got dozens of his clients in in 2011 based on nothing but lies from jimmy will be delighted to learn his life was ruined but trx is a good trading vehicle and not yet bankrupt.
Good luck flipping trx shares and let us hope jimme can continues the charade for many more years so the sheep can be sheered.
Just another anonimous amoral asshole. Money over people over truth everytime again.
As for trx - short after the 2.5 million warrants get exercised. Its all so simple.
You really are a piece of work … another sad soul insulting over the internet , I would expect Dan to put some order here .
DeleteI would expect folks to have figured the scam out after 10 years of lies.
DeleteI reiterate good luck flipping shares but do away with any moral pretentions.
I tell you what , if you were in front of me I can guarantee you wouldn't have the balls to call me asshole , I have nothing else to add , I will not acknowledge you anymore . Your insults you can leave them at home , where I m sure you use them often . Adios whatever whomever you are
DeleteWith respect, stop whining.
Deleteengineered and orchestrated bull mkt in stks going on 6 years now, right? yes I have a rear view mirror like everyone. the proper play is to lay low and look for the ultimate reversal, which is not to say that this deal can rally another 20% from here. Social Media? Come on. Sparks, of course
ReplyDeleteforget the PIIGS as that is yesterday's story. the issue and story to watch now is France and Germany. and I think it will not be pretty. maybe the U.S. press is lame and I believe it is, but Europe's is even weaker and sicker, at least as far as the crash coverage is concerned; sad
ReplyDeleteFrench press became a joke.
DeleteThey are vassals to the government and only know when to bark to get a bone. We are back to Versailles and its court here, in terms of "journalists". They on't even check the facts anymore. They don't ask the real questions for fear of being fired. It all became about carreer and licking their master's feet.
Many of the main newspapers survive only thanks to government's financial support (recently Liberation newspaper avoided bankruptcy thanks to government cancelling their debt. Guess how they should say thank you?).
Many French are aware of this and refuse to be lobotomized (yet).
Many blogs of "re-information" (example : www.les-crises.fr ) appear to contest the official version of the media, but most of the crowd is merely hypnotized by the T.V.
Churchill and de Gaulle are long gone. All we have left are the current carreer politicians (thumbs up to Armstrong for that one), who seem to be a total disaster for their country, within a less and less democratic Europe (see the videos of Nigel Farage at the European Commission to understand what I mean).
a propos Volatility, please check out http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-03/volatility-shocks-cheapest-hedge
ReplyDeletea propos distorted and highly selective reporting on Asian affairs, try http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-03/despite-surging-pmis-chinas-poor-resort-self-immolation which has more bias, lies and deliberate misinformation in it than I can be bothered to rip into
Dear Mr. Dan,
ReplyDeleteThe reason interest in gold has fallen is due to the Stock Markets which have been propped artificially without any real economic recovery.
1.9 trillion in Share Buybacks by corporates since 2009. Using Zero Rates borrowing, thanks to QE & FED.
Shares of Financial Companies rising as they were given funds at zero rates and lent them at high rates making a killing.
Gold is now a INVERSELY related to S&P 500.
Total QE is now less than borrowing requirement of US Government and Corporates hence no excess liquidity for stocks. S&P500 could break down from the rising wedge of past 1 year.
Gold will instantly rise if Stocks Correct.
parasite
ReplyDeleteDid actually say something and no add link.
DeleteDuffy doing a good job with his lack of leadership in destroying the Merc; any wonder why otc continues to grow?
ReplyDeleteGDX getting pole-axed again, within 48 hours after "Any Minute Now!, the COMEX will get overtaken by Asian exchanges", yada, yada, yada......
ReplyDeletePoor General Jim must be hugging his dogs again as TRX is getting pounded back towards $2.25.
Baltimore Chop ending today in XAU and HUI, taking Egon, Sprott, and of course the General with them; go south young man, go south
ReplyDeleteGeneral jim really isnt poor. He sold millions if shares between 2005 and 2011. Millions and millions of shares.
ReplyDeleteThats why jim proclaimed in november 2011 when trx crashed to 1.60 after the private placement that he "had succeeded in his goals".
As to his dogs, animals are the last refuge of a scoundrel someone wrote in another place today.
fx mkts are a total wreck; no action at all, so what does that tell us?
ReplyDeleteYour favorite armstrong wrote the eurusd should see par the coming months. 1 -1.
ReplyDeleteJasper and Hubert, if memory serves me correct, Armstrong had the Euro going much higher a couple months ago, no? Anyway, his tactics are very simple in that he makes predictions on everything and gives time frames all over the place up to 20 years and so forth. Only unthinking simpletons would pay any attention to him and I really think he is racing to the bottom with kwn; BUT remember, he does not need any $, but by accident is charging $950 for his next dog and pony show. What a clown
DeleteSteve, you obviously don't follow anything Armstrong says because he has been short the Euro, and calling for a dollar rally that will cause peoples heads to spin. We all know you have zero love for the man, but your continued bashing seems more like envy than anything else. I swear I've never in my life read comments from anyone more egotistical than yours.
DeleteI think Armstrong is a nutcase too. But hes definitely not in the same leagues as kwn and Sinclair who tend to be 100 percent wrong about everything.
ReplyDeletejohn, he sold gold in the hole and bought the top in the Euro, if memory serves me correct. And he has the S&P going to 2500 or whatever in his goofy 20.1755 time frame or whatever. Make enough predictions and whoever wants to will anoint you and others like me will just laugh.
ReplyDeleteThis is what armstrong wrote on 27 june 2013
Delete"This is why I have said that there will be the traditional correction that could be up to 5 years under the worse case scenario pushing the low into 2015. But if that were the case, the 2015 low would be a double bottom with 2013 or a new low that is marginal. Always 90% of the decline unfolds within the first 2 to 3 years. That makes the low now possible or extending into June/July 2014 for the finish."
Hes a very strange character that ill grant you.
Jasper, the guy has no conscience; Most people do not remember his bullshit; I have listened to his interviews and so on and it is very ordinary at the bottom line.
Deletehttps://us-mg6.mail.yahoo.com/neo/launch?.rand=12lknt1n9u39r
ReplyDeletehttp://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/08/04/world-economic-conference-2014-preview-on-youtube/
John, hurry up and get set for your boy Mr. Spellcheck; he is looking for editors and pigeons to keep him afloat, even though he really does not need the $. hahahahaha lol
Armstrong is 100% right on the educational fraud going on in this country.
ReplyDeleteSteve, this has nothing to do with me and I'm nobody's boy. I could care less if Armstrong can spell or not. All that I have pointed out is that YOU seem to think very highly of yourself. You continually bash the man for having opinions on everything, yet you have the opposite opinion of him on EVERYTHING. Its sad and amusing at the same time to witness such narcissistic envy at someone else's egotism.
ReplyDeleteSteve, I really don't wanna get involved in anymore debates over this kinda thing. I wish I had never said anything about this and will try to overlook any future comments made towards Martin in the future. I wish you well and apologize for anything I said here today. God Bless!
ReplyDeleteJohn, I beg to differ with your thoughts. Armstrong has thoughts on everything and I happen to think he is full of shit. What does that have to do with me? He is a big boy and I would think you are also, so what is your problem with a differing opinion? At the end of the day, what value is there when he gives his thoughts about 2015.57 and so forth? Unique and probably worthless. But of course, he does not need the money.
ReplyDeleteOk John, no problem
ReplyDeleteWell, at least we got THAT settled.
ReplyDeleteNice bounceback in the S&P's today. Crash of '14?? Doubtful.
Well its official.
ReplyDeleteAcclaimed 45-year veteran now claiming "Financial Implosion" and "Slaughter" of the financial markets as we know it.
Hey, I remember my first "doom and gloom" book I read.
Jerome Smith's "The Coming Currency Collapse"...
...which can be found here:
http://www.amazon.com/Coming-Currency-Collapse-Jerome-Smith/dp/0553202960
...and now can be bought for...a penny!!!
Originally released in December, 1980 (although the particular printing shown on Amazon was 1981), Mr. Smith screeched:
"This can't go on!!!
...and:
"Any minute now, Hyper Super Duper Inflation is gonna scroom us all!!!"
Well, let's see where these "Experts" at KWN stack up in the next few years when the Dow is over 20,000
Mine was "Blood in the Streets", by James Dale Davidson and William Rees-Mogg It set me on a 25 year side trip down the doomsday paths, and subpar investment performance to match. Thanks for nothing, morons.
DeleteBut, way leads on to way, as the poem says, and indeed I did come back.
http://www.amazon.com/Blood-Streets-Investment-Profits-World/dp/067162735X
And, for what it's worth (absolutely nuthin) I'm projecting Dow 25,000 and S&P 2,800 by the time I retire in 2022. When that's the view, then Buy-The-Dip is the default call pretty much all the time.
Gold? Meh. Long term, stocks are proven a better protector against inflation than gold. Those are the facts, and that blows 25 years of garbage out the window.
I got physical barbarous relics for sale.
DeleteOK, gimme a little bounce here, I'm as greedy as the next guy. 1400 and I'll be shoveling to Provident with both hands.
Well if Armstrong is correct about 26K DOW by his 2015.75 economy turn down date then he's the man.
ReplyDeleteHe was accurate on gold having a sharp decline 1st Q of 2013.
Then when the gold bug community gathered the troops and went out to buy gold coins at discount while the General said the manipulators have done themselves in cause the coin demand is going to bring bullion back up, Armstrong said it won't make a difference.......and he was right again as gold rallied a bit, flattened out then took another nose dive down - and finally crickets from the gold bugs, atleast for a brief moment.
I remember this well, cause it was around this time I cancelled my subscription to the Golden Jackass newsletter. Just couldn't read page after page of gold conspiracy theories that just never pan out.
Wow what stories I'll be telling my grand kids someday about doomers/gold idiots (bugs)
BTW did anyone actually ever figure out why gold rallied for 10 years from 2001 to 2011?
DeleteThen there was that infamous thing about how Kennedy's brain has been kept alive under the sea...or whatever the fuck.
DeleteYou gonna take investment advice from a guy like that?
This comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteProphet: Ummm...because it went absolutely nowhere (or down) for 20 years from '81 to '01?? Things do average out over time, ya know.
DeleteI think that is what we are looking at again. '12 to '22, or '32 is going to be a big yawn and a half.
I can double my money elsewhere by the time gold has another run.
DeleteAnd I'm not even talking silver or miners, realms that are solely the province of charlatans and pumpers.
DeleteFunny, but I thought I was the only one that read Jerome Smith a million years ago and his happy horseshit. But wait, what about Joe Granville, Harry Schultz and Howard Ruff for half off if you order now. Not available in stores, phone your order in now.
DeleteThis blog spot is nothing more than a giant hate fest.
ReplyDeleteI stopped reading the guru's over two years ago...WTF...get a life you people.
I am surprised that Dan is letting this nonsense go on.
If you so much hate these Gurus and charlatans then go knock on their front doors and have the balls to confront them personally.
Dean I don't see the hate fest here - just small retailers exchanging information about crooks in the finance industry, how else could we come across such diverse information and learn the "tricks" of the trade.
DeleteI believe you were the fellow familiar with Detour Gold as I was in it too. Remember when the CEO Gerald Panneton with a booming voice at a conference in 2011 when DGC was peaking at $39 said that it would go to $50 next year?? Then what happened by 2013 - the stock collapsed to $2.88 and he resigned!
Maybe I'm thinking too deep about this, but in my opinion it was not coincidence but orchestrated from the beginning.
In addition here is something else I came across recently - in 2013 when DGC broke a major support line and 2 weeks before gold collapsed in April here is an article posted by Credit Suisse giving DGC a target of $35 when it was $16 and charts clearly indicating it's about to tank:
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/analyst-actions-credit-suisse-revises-estimates-on-detour-gold-corp-cm235503#ixzz2QbqQx2Sz
Found this on a public form for sucker retailers. Either the financial institution is completely incompetent or planted this looking to dump their shares knowing what is coming.
I use to get a warm fuzzy reassurance when JS would start by saying "My dear extended family....." - but man I wish I knew then what I know now.
From all this I've learned to watch the charts and plug my ears, as opposed to listening to opinions, media and anything else that affects psychology and later makes you ask...what the hell was I thinking!
And Mark is bang on when he says those invested in US stocks are set for the rest of their lives, while those who were bambozled by the gold bugs will never recover in time for retirement.
DeleteGlad to be learning this stuff in my 30's, when I approach retirement I'll remember this episode in my life and think twice on betting on a "sure shot" - I'm sure by then the charlatans and pumpers will still be around to bamboozle.
Zero Hedge is issuing an article on JPM / fraudulent CFTC data:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-04/another-settlement-%E2%80%93-jp-morgan-receives-slap-wrist-despite-years-fraudulent-cftc-dat
No need to discuss ZH. They may be right morally, but they missed the longest rallye in shares ever.
But is it worth to investigate this accusation of CFTC data being awfully wrong?
Turk the donkey has gold in backwardation once again. sigh..................
ReplyDeleteIn less than 24 hours after Turk's backwardation article where "This Can't Go On!".....
ReplyDeleteAnd 72 hours after Andrew McGuire's "shocking" report about Asians buying the dips in paper to lock in physical.....
GLD and GDX collapsing in pre-market trading, another horrific catastrophic gap down in those two.
USDX breaking out to new highs for the move.
ReplyDeleteThe story will unfold there...
LOL......
Prophet
ReplyDeleteYep, i also was on a blog in December of 13 where a few guys were buying DGC at less than $4.00....thought they were nuts.
Anyway....the same old story only being replayed on US equities...stock Gurus pounding away on "to the moon price targets" When (not if) it finally starts to fall apart the same tragedy will unfold.
Don't forget that JS was correct for 12 years (I am not defending him here just making an observation). So all this talk of the greatest recovery of all time...no threat of inflation, money for nothing and a forever rising stock market is just as reckless and irresponsible as the Gurus and mystics everyone here despise. Same old , same old. But this time is different...right ?
Dean . You are the man . Its sick , how people keep hating and cheering for an asset , as if they were for a baseball team , and the analysts were coaches or something like that . I guess the net is full of geniuses that love mental masturbation . Anyway …
DeleteDean at $4 was the time to buy DGC, obviously now in hind sight. The market was just waiting for confirmation that the 1180 double bottom held - which it did. DGC from there was a 300-400% return.
DeleteI was thinking about buying but with the CEO resigning, and the company facing lawsuits from contractors and investors for over stating numbers I figured it was too dangerous. Too bad for me I would have been retired if I rode it to even $12.
But just the way it crashed so hard then recovered so well even though things didn't fundamentally change much for the better makes me believe there is too many games played on this particular stock.
Oh well if gold does finally bottom at 950 at some point it once again could be the buying opportunity of a life time.
....and this goes back to what I said in an earlier post, learn chart partterns, draw your trend lines and make an entry and exit point if things don't go well. This works better than supposed -fun-dumb-mentals. The market doesn't always react the way it should but the chart doesn't lie.
DeleteJim was a newsletter writes proclaiming the bearmarket in gold was over. In 1993!
ReplyDeletehttps://db.tt/9azs81o5
Jim told people to take certificates and juniors would go up 10fold in 1008 just before the crash. Did it again early 2013.
jim is a broken clock that is always right when gold goes up and always wrong when it doesnt. Then he blames the manipulators.
Hes a confirmed liar and charlatan. And he likes mental masturbation.
Are you one of the cometgold cultists?
Sorry..I have absolutely no idea what a cometgold cultist is
ReplyDeleteI was talking about anon.
DeleteDid you see the fax i posted, dean?
Jasper
ReplyDeleteNo, I have not seen the fax post...where is it?
The link in my 8.47 post
ReplyDelete