Look - no matter what one thinks of what happened to gold the other day, my view is really simple - Gold needs an inflationary environment in which to thrive. Generally speaking, it also requires an environment in which REAL INTEREST RATES are negative. An inflationary environment in which REAL interest rates are positive ( nominal interest rate yields EXCEED the official rate of inflation as measured by the CPI) is detrimental to the gold price.
Back in the early 1980's, Fed chairman Paul Volcker broke the back of the gold rally by raising short term rates to extremely high levels - higher than the rate of inflation - thus giving buyers of Treasury enormous, risk free profits by moving out of gold and into Treasuries. In the process he slowed down the economy and brought on a recession but he broke the back of the inflation genie that was rampant in the US at the time.
Generally speaking - gold tends to have problems in such an environment because it throws off no yield. Investors who buy it want to see it outperform essentially risk free returns in Treasuries. The only way most investors are going to make a return on gold is through capital gains. In other words, its price needs to rise at a faster pace that the rate of inflation or at the very least, at a faster pace than the rate at which Treasury yields are going up.
I said all this to just make a point - there is no need - AT THIS TIME - for the Fed to fight any sort of rise in the price of gold because the market is convinced that the QE programs have not led to rampant price inflation as many anticipated they would.
Take a look at the following commodity index, the GSCI, and tell me, honestly and without any bias whatsoever, in which direction is the WHOLESALE PRICE of commodities generally headed? Is it up or is it down? The answer is obvious is it not.
Commodity prices have been GRINDING LOWER for over TWO YEARS NOW after spiking to a peak in early 2011. What has the price of gold been doing over that same period? Yep - it has been moving lower as well has it not?
What is so hard to understand about this? There is not the least scintilla of evidence that there is any upward price pressure in things tangible as a whole. So why do some keep insisting that gold should be thousands of dollars higher in price????
Some may want to look at the US Dollar but what has it been doing?
Again, since the early part of 2011, ( GEE WHAT A COINCIDENCE - note the GSCI chart above ) it has been strengthening, first SHARPLY and then, since early 2012, within a more gradual upward sloping price channel. Either way, it is no longer moving sharply lower as it had been during the bullish phase in the gold price. As a matter of fact, the rising Dollar has been an effective lid on rising commodity prices in general.
Now, and lastly, take a look at the weekly chart of the S&P 500 index.
Note that since its bottom in October of 2011, to its current price near 1840, it has returned a stunning 64% return.
Now consider all three of these charts together - given that commodity prices are weak and moving lower, given that the Dollar is strong and moving higher, and given that equities are returning such strong gains, why on earth would any investor rush into gold as protection against runaway inflation and lose missing out on such stellar returns in the US stock markets?
Given all these things, yet, we are to believe according to some, that gold is ready to lift off into the stratosphere any day now and that only manipulation of its price is preventing this from occurring.
Those who cite this manipulation are also ready to whip out the latest GOFO rates, backwardation, etc, to bolster their case that it is only through the clandestine activities of the big bullion banks, working at the behest of the Fed and the US government, that gold is kept from roaring upwards.
Dear reader, just look at the above series of charts and remind yourself, that when the commodity complex shows signs of shifting from a downtrend to an uptrend, when the Dollar shows signs of moving from a gradual uptrend to a downtrend, and when the US stock market shows signs of finally giving up the ghost and moving lower, then gold will have its day.
This is not meant to disparage any of those who keep advocating this manipulation stuff as I count some of them as my friends. It is however meant to discredit their notion that gold is under constant manipulation AT THIS TIME. It is not in my opinion as there is NO REASON FOR GOLD TO RISE sharply right now.
Those who are buying the metal are those who have nagging concerns about the overall well-being of the so-called "global economy". There remain trouble spots in the Euro zone, that is for certain. Also, the gargantuan debt of the US government with its massive amount of unfunded liabilities is not going away. However, and this is key, these are value-based buyers with a LONGER TERM horizon than the majority of hedge funds/investment funds/money managers who are paid to PERFORM in the here and now.
When that money flow from those sources re-enters the gold market, then the metal will rise and will continue to rise as long as that money flow persists. Until then, the feds do not need to waste their time with gold for Western investors are simply not interested in it. Asia is - but Asia, for all its size, is still not Western investment money flows.
What happens if treasuries are not viewed as risk free? The fed will start buying them? Oh wait.
ReplyDeleteSo Close -
Deletethey are considered risk free until such time as they are no longer considered risk free. Who is to say WHEN that might occur of IF it will occur at all.
One can suspect that there are problems with Treasuries in the long term but that is exactly my point - money manager are not paid to manage client money and generate losses or no returns on equity invested. They are paid to produce profits on money invested. If not, they no longer are money managers but drive taxis for a living.
Money managers, hedge funds, investment funds, must perform in the HERE AND NOW. They do not have the luxury of thinking long term. That is for individual investors with different time horizons.
As soon as you can grasp this principle, you will understand why money flows do what they do. It is not complicated.
Thanks for the reply Dan. The point I was trying to make was that the free market rate of treasuries might be different if the FED was not putting its thumb on the demand side of the demand/supply curve. Since the rate for treasuries is being.... influenced.. by this interaction if may also have an implication for the price of gold.
DeleteSo Close;
DeleteNo argument from me at all on that point buddy. Through its QE programs the Fed is directly intervening into the long end of the curve, and forcing rates artificially lower than they might otherwise be.
I have noted in the past that if they succeed in doing this without any consequences whatsoever, then they will have rewritten everything I have ever learned about economics and monetary theory.
but as to gold, initially this interference by the Fed was viewed as bullish for gold because the market was convinced that rampant inflation was going to occur as the Dollar weakened under these low interest rates. If you recall, during QEI and QE2, the Dollar moved lower and gold moved higher, alongside of nearly every other commodity market I might add.
Remember it got to the point where Bernanke was blaming high commodity prices on the weather, not the QE programs whatsoever. We know that the weather component was real but the weather had nothing to do with copper, silver, platinum, crude oil, etc...
However something happened around the period when that operation Twist came in which preceded QE3 and then of course the current QE4, the Market noticed that growth was not accelerating but was just moving along in a flatline. The economy was not getting worse but it was certainly not growing much either.
that resulted in a rethinking of the effect of these QE programs in regards to inflation and on the US Dollar. From that point on, gold has moved lower alongside the rest of the commodity complex in general.
The thinking now is if the Fed pulls back further from bond buying (tapers more) it will be more friendly for the US Dollar as it will be evidence that the US economy is improving. Along with that improvement will come a further rise in interest rates. If inflation remains subdued, the rising rates will provide less incentive to buy gold.
That is why the gold market is nervous about this QE stuff. Actually I am of the opinion that what the gold market needs right now is RAPID GROWTH. In other words, growth of the nature that can result in PAY INCREASES so that consumer purchasing power can finally increase. That has not been the case for a very long time now because the job market has been so abysmal.
Gold bugs who keep talking up a poor economy are actually working at cross purposes to what they desire, namely a rising danger of inflationary pressures that would benefit the gold price.
Completely concur with your view point friend. The economy and wage push inflation have been factors in gold price movements in the past. (The 70's) This time I believe it will be the winner of a different contest that will set the price direction/magnitude of price change. i.e. The demand side pull of physical gold moving from West to East as China continues to break free from dollar hegemony and attempts to show its currency is backed via gold (as per Rickards etc.), Indian demand, and Germany, Texas and others repatriate/demanding physical delivery vs. the supply side inflation ( i.e. The leasing, hedging, ETF “buying” etc.) that currently effects a defacto fractional reserve paper market for gold. I believe there are forces of tectonic magnitude at work here on both sides.
DeleteDan
ReplyDeleteDo you think the rising dollar could cause gold to fall 1180 critical support? Also other commodities like oil...
The gist of this post reminds me of the Black Knight in Monty Python and the Holy Grail. "It's just a flesh wound..."
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKhEw7nD9C4
Gil;
DeleteGlad you enjoyed my post....
When you get serious about understanding markets, come back and read with some OBJECTIVE glasses on.
This is the problem I have with the gold bugs - they are RABID, and I do mean to use that word, RABID dogs, when it comes to gold as they obsess over it, dream about it, live for it. Their entire world revolves around the price of gold. That is not life as I define life. It is a pitiful existence around a perishable object.
Gold will move higher when the MAJORITY of the market, not just the gold bugs and their wild-eyed fantasies, becomes convinced that inflation is becoming a serious problem and/or the US Dollar stability is being threatened. Until then, it is just another asset class.
I write this website for those who want to learn how to read and trade markets and become successful at it. How many gold bugs have lost money because they could not read a simple price chart?
Perhaps they console themselves with notions of gold priced multiple times higher than it currently is but that is no substitute for knowing how to move out of harm's way and saving precious capital instead of watching it wither away due to poor investment decisions based on the inability to read money flows.
No doubt those who continue to insist that gold was beaten lower by the government on Monday will insist that corn, soybeans, wheat, crude oil, unleaded gasoline, heating oil, sugar, etc are all currently being manipulated lower by the feds. Yes, indeed, those nasty feds are using the commodity markets to thrash every commodity out there. MEanwhile they are also selling down the mining shares, buying the Dollar, and only heaven knows what else.
I will leave you with this bit of market acumen - when the commodity indices turn decidedly higher, then gold will rally, so-called manipulation notwithstanding. Same goes for the US Dollar - when it falls sharply lower and breaks chart support levels, gold will move higher, manipulation or no manipulation.
Dan,
Delete"How many gold bugs have lost money because they could not read a simple price chart?" - I don't know the answer to this one. Lots, I guess. However, I know for sure I'm one of them. I refused to see reality for too long and it cost me dearly. Last fall, I finally made up my mind that it'll be a long and bumpy ride, with no certain outcomes, and lo and behold I don't get too depressed any longer when I see the price of my miners in red. Strictly from the value point I believe that they are priced much lower than they are worth, so I'll wait. I've no leverage. But does that mean that the prices will have to catch up? Ever? Probably not. I like to think I have a fair shot over next 5-7 years.
Anyway, it's refreshing to read some sanity in these crazy times, where many are claiming to know the future and are not afraid to voice it to everybody who would listen. I'm impressed by their sound conviction, even though they were proven wrong over, and over and over again. Thanks man.
Hi Abraxas,
DeleteI hope you are not only invested in miners, but also in physical gold. Not only because some miners could go bankrupt if gold prices continue to drop (as they seem to be terrible hedgers of the metal in terms of timing / risk management), but also because of what Eph recently mentioned : the goal of globalists may be to control a vast part of the gold production itself, by orchestrating the bankruptcy of some major miners and buying them for a penny.
Not to mention the always possible political governmental local decisions to turn a gold mining company public during the weekend.
I have no idea if this is going to far in the conspiracy theory notion, but I prefer to keep from harm's way by staying into gold itself. So I hope you are not fully and only invested in miners...
Hi Hubert,
DeleteThank God I'm not just in miners. I did consider it at some point in 2011 though. At least, I dodged that bullet.
Nanex offers you objective scientific research, data, and analysis.
ReplyDeleteTrader Dan offers embarassing subjective agenda.
Dan - Just come clean with the fact you were wrong and you don't have any more of a clue then "goldbugs" who or for what purpose these blocks trade in gold for. You sound like Dennis Gartman with your vitriolic ad hominem. BTW your former endorser Jim Sinclair is one of these so-called "goldbugs" you keep insulting day in and day out. I wonder how he takes to you these days? You can read charts - stick to that. If you want to give us your theories regarding market anomolies thats fine - say its your theory. But axiomatically declaring your omniscience with heated vehemence will not "convert" and so-called "conspiracy theorists," only make you embarrass yourself and look like an as and an idiot after the fact.
These markets are all manipulated. Banks are paying billions in fines all over the place in open air to that fact - are you deaf, dumb, or blind? To say the gold market is manipulated, even if its in ways that we dont understand, given what is public, is to engage in rational behavior and thinking. Get off the "goldbug," "conspiracy theorist," bashing - puts you on the same level as Rachel Maddow.
Ruterbach,
DeleteSo typical. Someone is not agreeing with you and you throw a huge tantrum. Try to express yourself with less venom if you want to be treated like a grownup.
Trader Dan has been one of the MOST OBJECTIVE persons I have ever read on the gold/silver "situation". He has stated many times that he is in favor of PHYSICAL GOLD ownership, and has vented his frustrations with "our powers that be". Why you would attack him like this is beyond me...
Deleteruterbach;
Deletenothing like a display such as this to prove my point about rabid gold bugs. There is no dealing with folks such as yourself.
But just for the record, Jim Sinclair is a dear friend of mine and I have never nor would ever attack him personally. Any such inference that I have is blatantly untrue. That is your spleen against someone trying to objectively show you why gold is not moving higher right now nor should it be moving higher.
I will leave your initial post up as a "Quod est demonstratum" for a poster child for rabid gold bugs.
Let's just say I reject Nanex's view. You should ask Nanex who was buying and what size those orders were. Instead the entire gold conspiracy army wants to focus on the downmove instead of the upmove that completely erased it within 20 seconds. Don't worry, I will not wait for any explanation from the conspiracy camp on this one.
One of the things that Dan has taught me is that all the whining and excuses just don't matter. What matters is price movement and trend.
DeleteJust for something to do, today I took positions in UGLD and DUST just to see if one would over take the other for a small gain and be hedged at the same time. Plus I could watch and see if we got any trend one way or the other and I could dump one. Came out even in the end.
But I had fun, very low risk. Ha!
In the end, this whole investing thing can be kept simple in one way, just take responsibility for the decisions one makes.
ruterbach...
DeleteYou can't find a more disciplined trader than Dan Norcini. Nor can you find ANYWHERE another trader who, for no charge, and at great personal expense of time and personal energy, gives you the totality of his wisdom and experience FOR FREE.
Dan could be spending the time he devotes to his readers and fellow traders in pursuits that would yield far more pleasure and gratitude than you have displayed here. But it appears than Dan gets his reward from sharing what he knows about finance and life in general with those of us who care to LEARN.
The old adage is proven true once again...by YOU.
If you can't say something nice (or in a CONSTRUCTIVE manner)...then keep your mouth shut.
You have displayed your ignorance and lack of manners which only reflects poorly on YOU.
Time will show us who has the best grasp on the facts of life.
Cedric
http://goldtradercommentsaugust2010.blogspot.com/
Looks like an errant inputted computer program trade. Now a days called a 'flash' crash because it happens in milliseconds and it is all over before regulators even know it happened. Faster than the market halts can kick in. Because all trading was honored, means there is no motivation to investigate, not that they would ever understand it if they uncovered an algorithm problem. The PhDs that could trace it out probably already are employed with the same entity that caused it (conflict in interest).
ReplyDeleteHumans creating something they can't always keep in check. I'm fine with it as the trend reestablishes itself in due course.
Silver still suffering. Consumables still rising in price as product size shrinks. Someone already said the US consumer would suffer the least while the rest of the world deals with US caused Ponzi scheme investments that have to sort themselves out. Europe can attest to that.
I am still puzzled…and I shouldn't be.
ReplyDeleteI won't mention any names but how does a man who has spent his entire life trading markets (precious metals) , has pedigree that allowed him access to information and people that could only be considered privileged to the highest degree, be so misguided ??
I cannot believe it is for money…so why?
Dan…would such an individual not be considered an expert trader..who should know money flows inside and out?
This individual of who I speak is not alone…I could list more than a few billionaires who are under water on this whole deal.
If they can't read a price chart….how in the hell are we supposed to ??
I think perhaps a more adroit question is what "price" does the chart reflect. The gold "market" is definitely a derivative of the price of physical gold. Yes?
DeleteDean;
DeleteIt is very simple to be truthful - all traders, and I do mean "all traders" are subject to allowing their convictions to cloud their judgment and prevent them from OBJECTIVELY looking at a price chart.
Think of it this way and it is easy to see - suppose you know absolutely nothing about gold or the gold price or anything related to gold but you do have experience as a trader and as a technician (meaning you know technical analysis). Now suppose you pull up a price chart of gold but leave off the name of the commodity and the price scale on the side of the chart. In other words, you have an unknown commodity at an unknown price.
Any skilled trader would then look at that chart, OBJECTIVELY, because he does not know what commodity it is nor does he know its price. All he can see is a chart pattern. Based on that alone, an OBJECTIVE trader would have recognized a market in a bearish trend for the last two+ years.
Now, what would happen if you then put the name of the commodity on the chart along with the prices so that someone who favors gold then looks at it. Immediately, unless he is able to put aside his own view and look at that chart OBJECTIVELY, his preconceived notions of where price should be and what price should be doing is going to fog and bias his outlook,
that is what happened to these otherwise fine men when it came to gold. The chart is there for anyone to see it. The problem is folks lost their objectivity. As a trader who makes a living IN THE MARKET, not OFF THE MARKET, I can bring an opinion to that market but must be able to jettison that opinion IF THE PRICE ACTION DOES NOT CONFIRM it.
It is that simple yet it is the hardest thing to do for a trader. Most traders are their own worst enemy.
This comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteDan,
ReplyDeleteWhen you talk about looking at a chart just technically, without the commodity/equity attached, and you are given a chart of gold and the S&P 500 from the last two years, where are you investing? If you simply look at the trend, I suppose you'd put your money in the S&P and not into gold, right? If you are a value player, do you do the opposite then? Or without reference to the underlying would a value player even balk at putting money into gold? Without a y axis, who's to say what the absolute magnitude of the loss has been and how much more it can go?
Now, throw in knowledge of QE, zero interest rates, the commodity names and y axis values, the state of the economy and government, and the only decision that comes to me as a longer term investor is to run away from the S&P and into gold.
Hasn't worked out though, so far!
Cortopassi;
Deletetry to look at it this way my friend - why not have money in both? In other words, put some money into physical gold as insurance and protection against systemic uncertainty while simultaneously having some risk capital at work in the equity markets. After all, if that is where the money is flowing that is where you want some exposure until the money flows change.
You do what they call due diligence and look at certain stocks/sectors that are performing well and try to own those using technical analysis to move you in and out of those things if you want to trade around them.
That way at least you do not have all your money in gold or gold stocks. I know too many guys who are 100% invested in gold and or gold stocks with no exposure to anything else. Can you blame them if they are unhappy because the gold price is not soaring? My view on that is that it is simply not wise to be so lopsided into any one investment. There are many options/opportunities out there to make money in as a trader/investor. Understanding money flows is how you get to that place. It takes a lot of time and a lot of dedication and long hours spent studying charts, making comparisons, etc,. but then again, nothing in life comes easy now does it! :o)
Best of success to you.
Dan,
ReplyDeleteI know you are mostly focused on gold on this blog but I would love to have your take on crude oil right now especially its COT data. The last report shows large spec net longs are still, and have been for a long time, at near the highest levels of 2013, even compared to when the price was a lot higher at over 110+. Being an attentive COT reader and analyzer, how do you explain the oil price and positioning of the large specs at barely unchanged from when price was over $15 higher?
Thanks.
Jesse Livermore;
DeleteI will try to take a look at this on Friday when we get the data. By the way, are you looking at their FUTURES ONLY positioning or their FUTURES AND OPTIONS exposure.
I would want to see the Swap Dealer and see how they are positioned as well as the big Producer/User category.
if you would be so kind, send me a reminder in case my mind gets lost somewhere in the markets before then!
Thanks
hey Dan, todays column and replies were a lot of fun to read. you couldn't have had it come out better if you had MANIPULATED it. lol. btw I sure wish those lower commodity prices would show up at the grocery store. at least my coffee went down, finally. keep up the good work
ReplyDeletenorthwind;
Deletethanks for some comic relief! there are some days when it is really needed and most welcome.
Sugar should be coming down a bit as well. Coffee prices have rebounded a bit higher at the CSCE or ICE nowadays so maybe that will get passed along but prices are so low now that retailers/distributors and coffee sellers can lower the price. I am concerned about higher red meat prices coming our way later this summer.
To Dan and northwind...
DeleteI don't know what kind of coffee you two are drinking, but the Kivu brand beans I buy at Fred Meyers here in Coeur d Alene, ID have a new 'low' price of $6.99/lb...UP a dollar a pound since last year.
I can't drink that 'name brand' ground bark in a can anymore and probably should be drinking green tea instead.
TIP: green tea is excellent for your health and two cups a day will benefit you greatly.
Oh, and the latest news on the MSM is that obese people tend to live longer. Probably because they ate all the skinny people.
GoldTrader:
DeleteGo with the green tea Cedric. You can always load it up with some good honey! If it does not keep you up at night to watch the screen then spike it with Mountain Dew. That oughta do it!
Thanks buddy....
Dan
I see US oil production as the culprit for lower commodity prices. Wages will never go up.. But those wells will dry up. See any correlations in this chart?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS1&f=M
Just a quick quiz apart from electronics, in your daily lives can anyone find anything which is going down in price not in Australia and we grow and mine commodities.
ReplyDeleteBack to the now confirmed manipulation we know that charts and statistics tell us Gold, commodities in general are down. Of more importance is what is the state of the physical market because it's the relationship between Gold metal and it's derivative COMEX paper Gold is distorted, reportedly levered in varying reports somewhere between 70 - 100 to 1 which is huge. Come Monday morning just past 10:10 with Gold about to cross 1250 and large short stops just above that level someone was desperate to protect those shorts. I think that's the take away from this incident, where would the Gold price be now if those stops above 1250 were hit. Someone is getting very protective of their shorts it will be fun to watch them cover when the time comes. As an aside January Gold deliveries in Shanghai already more than 75 tonnes no let up there.
News from Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
ReplyDeleteBank of America Merrill Lynch cut GOLD and SILVER
Has anyone listened to this Dr. Paul Craig Roberts interview? I was surprised to hear this former Assistant U.S. Treasury Secretary explain the markets are rigged:
Federal Reserve Manipulates Markets says former Treasury Official
So where do you invest your money now?
ANSWER: Place your bets on the Wall Street Casino and learn to ride.
News, I've asked about Craig Robert's point of view in a recent post. Watch for Dan's answer. I think he's 100% right.
DeleteMore precisely, if gold keeps going down when you think it should go up, you have a choice :
Delete1) Craig Robert's (and others) is to claim that every single market in the world is now totally in control of the manipulators, who rig absolutely everything, even the price of carrotts and Shuppa Shupps. That way, it still comforts your views.
2) You consider maybe you've been wrong somewhere. You realize that the dollar is not plunging (Sinclair reminded his readers that USD index is too big a market to be rigged, so I guess this is working both ways : up and down), so somehow maybe because perceptions of inflation, etc... something is wrong in your short-term equation.
Wow, more "jawboning" from Draghi and commodities of every stripe are instantly slammed, bond prices surge and ES futures celebrate with another boner run off of the overnight lows.
DeleteWe are truly living in "financial nirvana" whereby central bank jawboning and pie-holing can move key markets at will.
We will never again see 10-yr. yields over 3%.
We will never again see a rising CRB Index
We will never again see a bear market in stocks
The business cycle has been defeated
I mean really, how wonderous is that???
never again? no.
DeleteUntil the money flows stop? yes.
Sooner or later, all the money that could be invested in US Tbonds or stock markets, fleeing from Europe (thank you Christine and your 10% tax, I guess they stopped searching in your past with Bernard Tapie since you agreed to do just what they want you to do) or coming from hedge funds, will be invested. Leverage will reach its limit. Concentration will reach its limit. And then we'll have a krach, when most people won't expect it anymore. When most people will be back in the boat of stock market. Usual people still on the sidelines included. They'll probably buy the SP 500 at 2200, just before the krach, as usual...
zzzzzzz…snort…zzzzzzz, did you say something Mark ?
DeleteWow, grains are getting slaughtered today.
ReplyDeleteEvery day there seems to be a "rolling crash" among the CRB components.
DBC now printing 2-year lows, all of the lows from this year have been taken out with force.
We should be celebrating that we will never ever have to endure inflation rates higher than 1.5% ever again.
We are now living in a "Central Banking Miracle" in real time.
They have decided not even to collect taxes anymore. They will just print what they need.
DeleteThey are too lazy to even print. They just press a BIG button on their electronic money-generator, which is connected to the too-big-to-fail banks and the money just flows. I heard it takes too much energy to repeatedly press this button (because it's so big) so they are buying a robot to do this for them on hourly bases. The robot has been programmed to accelerate the speed of pressing over the time.
DeleteHYD, the high yield levered muni-bond ETF is now up a shocking 9 consecutive days.
ReplyDeleteProof that in the event of any crisis or catastrophe in the financial markets, or worries about economic growth, investors immediately scramble towards the safety of paper investments backed by nothing but promises to pay.
And commodities are dumped and ditched as if they were toxic waste.