"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat
Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput
Trader Dan's Work is NOW AVAILABLE AT WWW.TRADERDAN.NET
Dan, Your point about huge growing inventory of US oil & gas and advantage to industry and manufacturing is interesting....but curious about pricing. The commodity is priced at international oil price so don't understand the advantage to US unless the price is manipulated/managed down to provide improved throughputs. I've always wondered if this might in fact become an outcome as not only would this stimulate manufacturing but average Joe at the gas pump would have increased confidence if gas price is reduced. Regardless, if this were the case would US oil & gas industry not simply export to maximize profits? My understanding on oil (and I subscribe to a newsletter and feel a little bit knowledgeable on basics) is oil glut in US is twofold: huge Bakken oil field (fracking) and increased oil in Texas (close to refineries so huge plus) where they have gone into old now depleted conventional oil wells and started horizontal drilling by fracking. Oil gained by this method has advantages and disadvantages....huge access to oil supply but rapidly depletes fields compared to conventional as well as the controversy of fracking ruining water supply, poisoning the environment, cattle, etc....so some issues as well as rapidly depleting all remaining known oil supply in US so maybe 10 year window. Interesting opportunity but huge downside risk. Any thoughts?
ReplyDeleteChuck, don't fall for the "fracking is bad" hype being promoted by toxic terrorists. Hydraulic fracturing has been around the oil and gas industry since the 1940s so it's not a mystery. But a lot of the new oil production in west Texas is related to enhanced recovery from supposedly "depleted" fields using a CO2 flooding process.
Deletechuck;
ReplyDeletethanks for the comments. I must say however that a 10 year window is way too far out for me to seriously make any market judgments upon or just plain assumptions in general. Too many things can transpire over that time frame. I am interested as a trader in what impacts me more over the near term and near term we are swimming in crude oil.
I do not subscribe to the idea anyway that the US is going to run out of oil anytime soon. We have not even touched federally owned lands. the oil shale drilling is occurring on privately held lands for the most part. Also, California, if it could ever have enough sense to vote out the left wing morons who have destroyed that formerly great state, is sitting on a huge deposit of oil.
Crude oil based upon WTI is totally different that the Brent crude oil benchmark. Yes they are interrelated but too totally different animals. Also, if we do have a surplus of crude oil and if refinery demand cannot keep up with it, rest assured it will be exported either in the form of crude itself or more likely in the form of refined products such as gasoline/heating oil]/diesel.
The US is on track to surpass Saudi Arabia as the largest producer of crude oil. Cannot happen soon enough in my view.
Anyway, it will benefit US consumers and manufacturing by keeping a lid on energy costs. As I have said before, falling energy prices are the ONE THING keeping the US consumer from sinking beneath this rotten economy in which jobs are not being produced fast enough to form any sort of solid base for a true economic recovery.
Saudi and Israel are our real enemies; sparks and that is all
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteWatch out, the administrator will probably delete that post.
DeleteI agree, there have been many defections, probably out of sheer embarrassment over the events that transpired over the last year which has turned many into fools.
Mark
DeleteOops…guess you called that one.
It is almost impossible to go on the internet without running into yet another report on the debt crisis.
Where is this debt crisis?
The conference call I attended on Friday was presented by a analyst who was recommended by another famous trader who we all know (not Dan).
He made no mention of any debt issues that would have any effect on economic growth.
He stated that OTC derivatives will in fact perform and are safe…that's right…all quadrillion of them (or whatever number there is)
Bountiful harvests will keep food cheap, cheap plentiful oil, zero % interest rates with no threat of inflation.
Rising manufacturing base, renewed confidence.
Same goes for Europe, Japan etc.
He sees nothing but economic growth and prosperity for the foreseeable future with no end in sight.
Compare that with what we read !
I do not even read the doomsayer headlines anymore let alone wasting the 5 minutes it takes to read the content.
We've been suckered.
Yes indeed - everything is just peachy. That's probably why Central Banks all around the world have now successfully rolled back all of their historically unprecedented interventions, normalised interest rates 10x higher than they were back in the good 'ol ZIRP days and stopped printing money.
DeleteHappy times!
Tell me - whose book was your 'Famous analyst' talking?
John
DeleteNot talking anyones book as far as I know. I have never in my life heard such a bullish outlook…ever.
I believe he is simply stating the obvious, the Fed has indeed printed the Western world to prosperity.
If anyone here can show me that this is not true, please speak up.
We all talk about trading skills and technical analysis etc. and the average guy who never reads about or studies the market can make 20% returns by basically buying any US equity and sitting tight.
You mention that central banks have rolled back their interventions and that interest rates are 10x higher..??..where is that happening?
by the way,
DeleteHe also stated that a "Bail in" in America would simply not happen under any circumstance.
Along the topic of Central Bank intervention it was pointed out in the presentation that if push come to shove the Fed and other Central banks will resort to outright direct asset purchases….in other words if the market starts to tank they will intervene and the Fed will buy equities.
All of this with zero chance of inflation.
And you wonder why the VIX is at historic lows? How could you possibly be afraid to buy equities when they are guaranteed by the Federal Reserve to never go down in value?
This is helicopter money everyone, take it while it lasts.
If a guy leaps from the top of a 50-story building and claims, while free-falling to the pavement below, to be flying under his own power then I suppose technically he would be correct at that particular moment in time.
DeleteDean, no Central Bank anywhere has rolled back it's emergency measures. They can't - that's my point - they're trapped. I contend that you cannot draw any conclusions about the strength of the real economy until they do so, then we'll see what's really going on.
DeleteFor hundreds of years Central Banks held tight to the view that QE etc. was disastrous for a currency and should be (and was) avoided at all costs. Now they tell us that it's all fine, printing and ZIRP will have no negative impact and anyway, they can stop anytime they like (sure they can). So - were they wrong then or are they wrong now?
I agree, the outlook is almost the definition of Pollyanna.
DeleteJust read another article where they claim the Fed plans to stimulate the stock market 10-15% every year.
They want a 20k + DOW.
Like I say, this is helicopter money and the Fed can get away with it much longer than we think is possible.
They plan to punish anyone who dares not put their money in US equities.
Bitcoin now over 500
ReplyDeleteUp 3200% already this year.
Maybe the Comex should open a Bitcoin contract so that certain large financial institutions can flood the world with billions of paper bitcoins that can never, in reality, be delivered.
DeleteIf they take the Gold contract as a guideline, they'd be able to sell 68 imaginary bitcoins for every one they actually have.
That should put a dampener on prices and herd people back into the system quickly enough.
Bitcoin 530
ReplyDeleteSheesh, makes gold and stocks look like slow movers.
Looks like that is where the Chinese have been loading up.
Who needs the hassle of storing and insuring gold when you can simply exchange your dollar reserves for a digital currency that goes up 100 every week?
Every week you say? And exactly how many weeks has that currency gone up $100?
ReplyDeleteBitcoin now at 600+
ReplyDeleteStock futures soaring again, looks like ES 2,000 is in the bag.
Another horrific gap down in GLD and GDX this morning.
Nice forecasting error again for the "acclaimed experts", LOL.......
What is really worrisome for gold is the USD still can't get any real traction and yet gold continues to show weakness. When this zooms from the bottom of it's trading range gold will get crushed. Unless the dollar collapse is upon us??
DeleteMorgan Stanley new highs again.
ReplyDeleteNow cleared above the 2011 highs.
What happened to Jim Willie's call of "imminent failure?"
JPM surging towards lifetime highs.
HSBC also a 4-year highs.
Market is looking good, no sign of "Endgame" yet.
LOL....
Mark
ReplyDeleteThe endgame, end of world callers will be wrong for at least two more years I suspect…maybe longer.
The biggest risk right now is not being in the market.
I now totally ignore all the dire warning articles, they have been wrong for 5 years running.
Bitcoin is gotta be the world's biggest pump and dump.
ReplyDeleteBitCoin at 640.
ReplyDeleteAmazing how fast BitCoin has run.
Funny how Gil was ragging on me about it increasing 100 every week.
Heck, its doing that now in ONE DAY.
Hands down, whoever bought the "crash" down at $75 this year has made a lifetime fortune in just a few months.
You think I was ragging on you? I don't even know what that means.
DeleteBITCOIN is going to be well received. And the BITCOIN Congressional hearings begin:
ReplyDeleteCongressional BITCOIN Hearings Begin
Listen carefully as there is mention of BITCOIN driving the price of GOLD and SILVER lower. It's now the New Age of DIGITAL CURRENCY and COMPLEX ALGORITHMS.
BITCOIN WALLETS
BITCOIN CREDIT CARDS
BITCOIN ATMs
BITCOIN BANKS
BITCOIN SALARIES
The BITCOIN of everything is about to begin.
Don't think for one second that this is not going to happen. It will. I'm not an advocate of it--AT ALL! I know who's behind this is not really interested in what they call freedom and liberty. They are only interested in PROFIT at the expense of DIGITAL SLAVERY.
And that is the truth!
The News UNIT
Even assassination bitcoin rewards offered on Bernanke on one site. Simply amazing. No stopping the central banks until ......the intellectual pride is destroyed. A matter of time. Maybe end of 2014?
DeleteIsnt it interesting that with gold falling hard, "probably because of a massive oversupply" and the US cant give Germany back only a handful of gold. It doesn't make any sense.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteHow do you buy bitcoin?
ReplyDeleteYou can go to Brother John F's channel and BUY STOCK IN BITCOIN. Maybe he's a BITCOIN BROKER? I have no idea how this works but here's the LINK to his BITCOIN CHANNEL where you can buy stock:
DeleteBITCOIN CHANNEL
Brother John F is forecasting the next peak at $3,000 for BITCOIN and he says, "...clearly this isn't the top yet..."
He's quite the forecaster. :-)
It is interesting how it turned out that a 17 trillion debt has been the greatest thing since sliced bread. I should have known that way beforehand.
ReplyDeleteDo you not remember that DEBT IS MONEY?
DeleteDEBT IS MONEY
DEBT IS MONEY
DEBT IS MONEY
And BITCOIN is GOLD 2.0
It's amazing where we have arrived. I'm going to take a break now and go outside and throw a few casts and try and catch a Walleye. Had enough of all of this.
There's a note on THE BITCOIN CHANNEL on YOU TUBE that China is going crazy over BITCOIN. That makes sense to me compared to all the news that they were all lining up over there to buy physical gold. I can see the Chinese with their head down in their smart phones working BITCOINS but not buying gold.
ReplyDeleteThe NEW WORLD DIGITAL CURRENCY has arrived folks. I'm convinced of it. In fact I'm 100% convinced it is about to take off with PAY PAL, EBAY, Amazon, and many others.
I would like to buy some stocks in BITCOIN but I don't know of any. Maybe just buy all the banks? If anyone has some information on BITCOIN please post it. Time to go ALL IN maybe?
I have to make one last comment for the day. And I'm going to make a prediction:
ReplyDeleteEric Sprott is going to start a BITCOIN FUND. Mark it down.
Symbol BITC?
Gone fishing.
Backed by gold no doubt.
DeleteJust also a final thought on the day. The 10 trillion debt under Bush was "immoral and impossible" but Obamas 17 trillion debt is moral and wonderful. Its an upside down world. Disturbing to say the least.
ReplyDeleteArnie
DeleteWe are now at the point where no matter how you choose to label it, the debt does not matter anymore period.
They actually are out to prove that you can print to infinity with no consequence....so far they are right.
News Unit
ReplyDeleteBack up the truck..but how?
I found one site that sells bit coins..they pride themselves in anonymity, all emails destroyed, no records kept etc.
So...I wire money to an entity that makes a point of not keeping any records of it every happening ?...I will have to think about that.
I also watched an interview with a bitcoin player who claims the US Gov't is powerless to stop it or control it...really?....gee...have we ever heard that claim before? However, this individual also noted that he owns both gold and bitcoin.
Dean:
DeleteI have no idea so if anyone finds out anything let me know. All I know is what I have here on The News UNIT:
BITCOIN Congressional Hearings Begin
The way the media is grabbing a hold on this BITCOIN story along with Congressional hearings is no doubt going to launch this GLOBAL DIGITAL CURRENCY. At least that's my feeling about it.
I might appear a bit conspiratorial here but in regards to your comment above it could be that the U.S. GOVERNMENT actually manufactured BITCOIN. You just never know.
I have to get out of here now and go fishing. I'm gone. :-)
News Unit
ReplyDeleteHey, are we all invited for beers and a fish fry?
I don't know who's who here but you guys should all come out to Lake Wisconsin here sometime including Dan N., Jim S., and others and you wouldn't be disappointed.
DeleteGuys what if this is just a pump and dump, and just as the common folk gets in and dumps their gold bullion the reverse happens?
ReplyDeleteTo the Bitcoin specialists, one question ( I really don't have a clue) :
ReplyDelete- how much is the whole Bitcoin market worth for a bitcoin at 600 $ now?
- same question for gold (let's take all the gold ever produced and stored)
Thanks :)
P.S : follow up of my last long trade on gold :
- long 1270
- out 1/3 at 1386
- out 2/3 at 1379.9 today with MACD 4 hours crossing down and prices falling through range of bollinger 1 hour.
Peanuts once more on that trade.
If 1270 doesn't hold, bulls are in serious trouble imho, next stop 1220?
I'm totally out again, waiting for another entry point...
Have a nice evening,
of course you corrected...out at 1286 and 1279.9 lol.
DeleteWell, I was too curious to wait, so I found :
ReplyDelete- Bitcoin current market total capitalization is a tremendous 7 billion dollars.
- at a price of 1300 $ an ounce, gold market capitalization is around 7 trillion dollars. 1000 times more at the moment. No wonder there is room for exponential growth. To all those who think Bitcoin is Gold 2.0, you will be correct when Bitcoin market cap is about gold's...let's suppose gold drops another 40%, so Bitcoin will have to be worth around 350.000 $ per unit.
I'm waiting with a huge smile.
Bitcoin I think is a monumental and humongous trap for the Hoosiers of the world, but remember what I always say, "most gamblers and speculators are looking to lose." Silver looks like it'll be a teenager once again by the time we are all sitting down for Turkey; sparks, and that is all
ReplyDeleteDon't waste precious time writing while bitcoin prices is increasing every second, Steve. Hurry up, sell your house, too, and join the happy bitcoin fellows in the magic universe of gold 2.0. At the pace bitcoin is goin up, I'm sure we'll reach 500.000 $ in a matter of days and we will recycle our old gold bars for reinforcing the walls of our old barns. You still have gold, you ain't understand nothing about the new economy. Look at the chart, it's ideal time to buy with a near support just under...75 $ :)
Deleteyou are ok, Hubert.
DeleteThe following is a quote from legal council representing Bitcoin in the Congressional hearing.
ReplyDelete"Bitcoin can help people avoid official corruption and punitive taxes and spend money on unpopular causes without risking interference from government, Murck said. Fees are generally lower than traditional banking, he said."
"Bitcoin can facilitate private and anonymous transactions, which are resistant to oversight and control," Murck's testimony says. "This by no means implies that using Bitcoin can or should provide anyone immunity from the law."
Ah..talk about the wrong things to say in front of a bunch of dollar addicted, corrupt, power hungry, paranoid politicians.
Yikes !
1270 is still holding...is there a big buyer there? JPM?
ReplyDeleteWe'll soon know, it starts to be a big support, the kind they blow up with a dynamite selling of 100 tons of paper gold when the market is nearly empty.
Will it be the case once more?
Hubert
DeleteProbably...it's worked very well for them so far.
Dan:
ReplyDeleteThank you as always for the comments. The group seems a bit fractious today.
As a Californian, I must take exception to "California, if it could ever have enough sense to vote out the left wing morons who have destroyed that formerly great state, is sitting on a huge deposit of oil." Removing the left coast morons will do no good. the "great migration" has transformed once conservative Orange County, and all the rest of the state, into liberal land where the sheeple actually believe the government. Coal is bad, oil is bad, natural gas is bad, business is bad, long live green energy just NIMBY. I have to write my state off