Longer Term view of Gold

As mentioned in a previous post this month, gold has fallen below TWO key Fibonacci Retracement Levels of the entire bull market that began in 2001 and ended in 2011. Using the low made in 2001 and the high made in 2011, and then the low made in 2008 and that same high made in 2011, we can construct two different sets of Fibonacci lines to see if we can any confluences which will give those regions/levels more significance should they not hold. The first level came in near $1298.60; the next level is at $1282.

These are not meant to be hard numbers but rather REGIONS where we can look for buying support to emerge. Thus far this month, both levels have fallen to the bears. If the bulls cannot recapture at the very least, the $1282 region, they are in serious trouble should this market end the month BELOW both levels.

I have noted a rectangle as Key Support. It begins near $1210 and extends down to the spike bottom near $1180 made earlier this past spring. It sure does look to me like gold is going to test at least the top of this range near $1210. If for any reason the market fails to rebound sharply from this level, the stage will be set for another test of $1180. If that gives way, this market will more than likely move all the way down to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire bull market move which comes in near $1086.

One could make the technical case that the price action over this year has formed a BEARISH PENNANT that has just failed to hold support. I would certainly hope not since the repercussions of this technical chart pattern would portend a move as low as $800, as inconceivable as that seems right now.

What I can say is that gold would be well below the cost of production were this to occur and last for any length of time. For that matter, even gold below $1100 is below the cost of production for many mines. The key will be, if it were to get there, how long it stays down there. It is one thing to spike into a region and then violently rebound. It is another for the price to languish there.

I have mentioned many times over the last few months that I believe gold miners should be using price strength to HEDGE portions of expected future production as downside price risk is just too high for any responsible mining outfit not to secure protection and at least lock in some guaranteed profitability on some production. It is a pity that more are not doing so as they would have been able to weather this storm in the gold price allowing their stock price to hold much better than many individual outfits are currently faring. I can only say that if gold were to violate that key support level, they had better be hedged. They can always lift some hedges at the time they sell some actual production but being naked and exposed to the vagaries of the market is simply asking for trouble.

As far as overhead resistance goes, in order for the bulls to dodge the proverbial bullet, the very least they need to do is to push price back over $1300 and change the handle. Even more however, would be to best this month's high which is near $1320.