"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat
Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput
Trader Dan's Work is NOW AVAILABLE AT WWW.TRADERDAN.NET
It's going to be "Do or Die" for the gold crowd on Monday.
ReplyDeleteNow that the government will have to shut down, the government spending will be dramatically curtailed, leading to a self-enforced "austerity" for the U.S.
Just look at the dramatic outperformance of the Europe ETF's since they imposed austerity measures.
The U.S. retail indexes are on the verge of breaking out again from triple tops in virutally every leading currency.
Gold could be headed towards a Don Coxe - inspired "Triple Waterfall Collapse"
Even Jim Puplava and his guest are no longer bullish on gold and do not believe in Peak Oil.
Ten years worth of research now thrown out the window, thanks to Ben Bernanke's "Infinite Fiat".
Just a few points. Whenever a deal is reached all the spending will be backdated so there will be no savings of any kind. I guess if all of this is bullish for the dollar then a nuclear Iran will be bullish for peace in the world. If its bearish for the dollar then gold has a chance of taking out some highs. If anyone is interested in just giving the gold shorts their money, be my guest. It wont be me.
DeleteHey Mark, when you refer to the gold crowd who specifically are you referring to?
DeleteMy how things have changed in the markets! The News UNIT
DeleteWe seem to be paving the way for President Hillary Clinton.
Any ideas on that one?
The case for 1000 $ gold is here.
ReplyDeleteAnyhow, an interesting one, imho worth reading because it's the opposite view from "permabulls". Especially, that person is seeing 1350 as an important resistance, and we are just under it now (it was written 10 days ago), so I'll definitely Watch 1350 and then 1375 above.
Because if that trader is right, we have an immediate overhead resistance here, and a downwards potential to 1000 $, so we should know soon, but I'm not long Under this 1350 because those 1350 do seem consistent.with what he says and the previous price action.
After all, I sold stop the remaining of my long position at 1349...
Indeed I short stopped the remaining of my long position at 1349, so I agree with him about the end of the article.
Gary Savage :
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Tekoa_Silva/2013-09-18-Gold-Trader-The-Market-Manipulation-Has-Begun-Again.html
http://i44.tinypic.com/2ustqon.jpg
ReplyDeleteWe are still in 2 pitchforks, both heading down... :-(
On the 2 week unit, maybe the inf bollinger band will reverse up soon, which could confirm bottom at 1180, but it didn't yet.
Whatever I hope for gold long term, I keep in mind the possible bearish scenario.
hmmm lots of bearish views out in force here....
ReplyDeletelooking at the XAU:USD (Weekly) I say eventually testing 1527 in the next couple of weeks/months is more likely versus 1000. Especially given that, Dan's thinking was that the long term low was put in Jun/Jul. Guess it could test 1180 again but, 1000!?!
The only hesitation I have is that, Jim Rogers still holds the view that gold could test 900 or 1000 before gold can resume its up trend again to shake away the "believers" . But even he, admits that he bought some at 1200, "just in case".
The 2 weeks candle chart is the unit which may give me the best confirmation that 1180 is the final bottom : the ET MACD already reversed in this time unit after reaching a high in volatility history (70 periods), Bollinger Bands were in phase 3 (parallel, down) and usually the ET MACD anticipates a Phase 4 (here inf Bol Band reversing UP) 3 to 4 candles before.
DeleteSo we are there, around 3 candles after ET MACD reversing, and inf Bol Band is more horizontal.
But IF it remains down within a month, then it would be more a sign of the continuation of the bear trend and strength of the trend.
So as I mentioned on friday : my indicators (sorry if I'm very technical) are about to say something on most time units, but are now unconclusive.
I'm not bearish. I'm not bullish. I'm not anything.
But I chose to show the argumentation of the Bears and the 1000 $ scenario to show that there is a case for prices going further down as well as there is a case for saying that from now, we will go up again.
In terms of supports, if we go to 1000 $, well, we will see it first on the price action, because there are supports on the way! So lots of warnings and lots of time to protect oneself. I'm not saying "sell everything"!! at all :)
My warnings as a bull are simple :
1) unability to cross 1350-1375 resistance.
2) going through 1300-1285
3) eventually not bouncing on the 2day unit Bollinger Band around 1230 (they are in a range, so it's likely to bounce)
4) failing the important support zone at 1160-1180.
So you see, we are not at 4) yet!
I'd like to see 1350-1375 break.
If not, I'll be neutral as long as 1300 is holding.
But it is true that is 1285-1300 breaks, I think prices will probably head towards 1230.
Simply put : I think the risk of a correction, at leat to 1230 then bounce, and maybe even deeper, is still to big so that I'm confident to build large long positions at the current prices.
"Guess it could test 1180 again but, 1000!?!"
DeleteJim, your very sentence makes exactly my point.
IF, and it's a big IF because there are supports on the way down before we even get close to 1180, and many opportunities to bounce, but IF we get close enough to 1180, contrary to end june where people were not betting a penny on a bounce at 1200, and were mostly considering 1000 $ as a target, the very existence of 1180 as a support now since july makes it likely that many stop losses are just under it once more, with a "disbelief" from bulls that the support can be broken. Kind of the same thing that happened with 1520. Kind of the same thing that started a waterfall decline in april.
The closer we are from 1180, the more dangerous it will be for bulls, because the easier it will be to start a raid as they did in april. That's what the trader is mentioning in his article.
After all the technical damage we received in the long term gold chart, it is hard to claim imho that gold is back in a bull market. Quarterly unit, I still see this big marubozu down, and next (ending tomorrow) will form a "ligne de poussee" as it will cose under the middle of the body of the marubozu, which is not a bullish signal, but rather weak. On that time unit, the inf Bollinger Band is around 850 $...!! So if I was very pessimistic and watching only the price action on this time unit, I'd say that gold has a potential to stretch down towards 850 $ before bouncing on its Bollinger Band.
Conclusion : I'm still careful on a TRADING point of view. I'w watching closely the price evolution on a daily time unit, especially 1300 support zone and 1350 then 1375 resistances. I don't feel there is a huge opportunity to go long here, and I prefer to stay out of trouble.
On an investment point of view, I keep all my gold, physical, of course.
Here is the 2 week chart, showing my trading indicators.
DeleteI'm not saying I'm an expert of TA or I'm right.
Only using this forum to share my point of view and how I come to this or this sentiment about the market action.
http://i41.tinypic.com/2lm6mvc.jpg
What I see here is the inf Bol Band is trying to reverse, but is still going down, though ET MACD went down after reaching a top in volatility, 3 candles ago. IF Bol Inf goes up within 1 or 2 candles from now (so 2 to 4 weeks), I'll feel more confident to think that the bottom is in on a long term basis, not just an intermediate bottom in a continuing bear market.
But if it keeps going down, especially with again a steeper slope, then I'd become VERY wary as bull, because that configuration despite ET MACD stalling when Bol Bands were in Phase 3 would usually mean a continuation of the previous trend.
I can conclude on this time unit only within 2 candles from now, so about one month.
Another interesting article?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.silverdoctors.com/jim-willie-flash-trading-hits-ustreasury-bonds/#more-32402
So if bears want to send gold to 1000 $, I think they know they'd better hurry. Time is not exactly playing on their side. But a cornered wolf is the most dangerous.
If they expect the final parabolic upside phase for gold up to 5000 $ or more, if they expect that time is counted, then they'll be enticed to act "now", not tomorrow, to start another decline.
Again, I'm careful, but as long as 1300 $ is not broken, there is no reason to panic. I'm waiting for prices to show me what happens.
Hi..
ReplyDeleteTrading derivative and buying 2 difference story...
I am on the long bullish of physical gold which is why i am loading up physical gold 1200 - 1300.. but derivative is all about short term profit.
for speculation only 1360 - 1400 only consider as bullish for derivative .. anything can happen in short term..
Long term bullish in gold buy physical gold.... cheer
Greece, Italy, JCP fiasco, U.S. Gov't shutdown hysteria, Oct 2nd worst month for stocks, CRB ongoing weakness, etc makes me on balance very leery of long side of pm, especially if week ago lows are blown out. Maybe if backwardation talks cease once and for all I can become a little more friendly to higher prints; swb in sparks
ReplyDeleteYes, the headlines featured in some of these gold blog websites are now bordering on the hysterical.
ReplyDeleteUnless a deal is reached at the last minute, I see "Three Disasters" in the financial markets:
1) Terrifying collapse in the price of gold as risk assets are dumped en masse
2) Massive short squeeze in the bond market as everyone flees to the safety of U.S. Government paper
3) Brutal selloff in commodity prices due to slowdown in GDP in the U.S. which could filter into emerging markets.
Of course anything and everything associated with retail, consumer discretionary, or social media will be completely unfazed from the upcoming carnage.
Follow the money, GS JPM TBTF quietly accumulating net long Gold position. Last time they were this long Gold was $250!
DeleteSource? I thought GS was short again and calling for $1,000.
DeleteWhen GS advises their clients to sell (stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities or whatever, but especially gold), you can be confident that GS will be in there buying. When GS advises their clients to buy, you can be confident that GS has a mountain of worthless crap to unload. It's all part of the new normal.
DeleteMark,
ReplyDeleteGold is a risk asset?! Why is gold synonymous with safe haven asset then?
Can someone please help interpret DUST? The weekly chart looks as if it is resting above 50 wma before it'll shoot higher, and it refused to fall last week (Fed week).
ReplyDeleteThe daily chart on the other hand has failed to make a high higher than Sept 13. It is above 20 dma (and even 10 dma) but seems to have trouble rising firmly above 50 dma.
What do you guys make of it?
Just read where the Pebble mine project is falling apart. The project with ABX in chile and argentina is being thwarted. It looks like new mine production of gold is just not happening. So the trillions of dollars being created out of thin air is going to meet a limited supply of newly mined gold. So the bullish fundamentals are clashing head on with the bearish technicals. The fundamentals havent mattered much anyways. But they should.
ReplyDeleteTiming of course is the problem. It all sounds bullish for gold, but when?
DeleteA couple short TA vids corroborating Dan's excellent wrap up:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt092713.html
http://www.silverdoctors.com/deepcaster-profit-from-a-dangerously-fat-left-tail/
ReplyDeleteSummary by Deepcaster - current events and what can arrive on the coat-tails of many fat tails wagging the dog packs.
opening gaps to the upside; beats me; shows what I know; swb in sparks
ReplyDeleteSteve,
DeleteYou know a lot. You always bring in pertinent factors I have no idea about.
Maybe an opening gap followed by a big decline. 53 to 35 in minutes. This market has got to get out of this rotten range. I dont know how, but it has to . Or just close it down until its ready. This is insane.
ReplyDeleteArnie they want to take it down. I just hope news dictates a move up and will push them out.
Delete2 of the biggest mine projects in the world not opening. China certainly trying to get to 8000 tons. The euro on the verge of breaking to a new high. All the dollars in the world will be devalued when it does. Countries are not stupid. Hold dollars or hold gold. Its a no brainer. The bulls must know all these things. And the bears must too. Why arent the bearish forces scared out of their whits? Their risk could certainly be to new all times highs and beyond. Must be an explanation somewhere. But its beyond me at this point.
ReplyDeleteIt's because countries are not stupid that they want to keep buying cheap. Why fight Western manipulation if it helps them get better prices? Besides, it takes time to prepare for a potential collapse of the USD. It's not only about gold. Colateral damage will be there. As long as we provide the real stuff to BRICS & Co and they consider they still need more, they have no reason to stop the game too early. But I think there will come a time (soon) when the USD will eventually lose its status of world reserve. It's linked to petrodollar. And I would not underestimate a cornered wolf fighting to defend the system he benefits from since Bretton Woods.
DeleteBond shorts getting massacred.
ReplyDeleteNever underestimate the power and the lust for U.S. Confetti
The more they print, the more desireable it becomes.
I thought fifty per cent of all treasuries were bought by the FED. We print them and we buy them. Because so many won't.
DeleteI think its more like the Fed buys 80% with printed money. I mean counterfeit money. Got a printing press at home? Its the same.
DeleteDid you read Jim Willie's article?
DeleteIf it's an HFT last line of defense, one can interpret it differently...
A spike just up towards 1350 and down (see Gary Savage). I'm watching 1350 as the first main resistance if bulls want to keep any hope.
ReplyDeleteIf 1350 becomes the line in the sand, and prices only stall Under it, we shall know very soon...
Hubert but isn't this likely to play out until the debt ceiling on Oct. 17. Gold could struggle as it is and explode on the debt ceiling and possible US Default.
ReplyDeleteHFT Last line of defense means what?
Thanks
I assumed raising the debt ceiling, which will likely happen, would be bullish for gold, atleast worth a good pop, but in these market conditions who knows. Besides I don't think debt ceiling talks excite the market anymore as the outcome is always the same.
DeleteBut it does not come to the end of Oct. The talk of default and the political sideshow drove the market wildly in Aug. 2011. Of course with gold being in a bearish posture we don't know if it will drive gold.
DeleteExactly. Capital was flowing into gold in 2011 cause it had the nice momentum since 2001. Until capital flows into gold again any "should be" positive news for gold won't do much, then watch out for any negative news that will crush it to the down side.
DeleteI am long gold but what you say is going on right now. Gold is being capped and has no momentum.
DeleteConcord,
DeleteI don't want to assume anything about the debt ceiling, because it is only speculation, and only the devil knows how it will play out imho. Once more, I'll be first driven by watching prices, supports, resistances, than "fundamental" news.
HFT last line of defense, related to the link I posted above (Jim Willie).
Extract : "The USFed, the USGovt, and the Big US Banks urgently needed to stop the move in the 10-year bond yield (aka TNX). They needed to prevent a move above 3.0% on the USTreasury yield. They needed to avoid a calamity with both Interest Rate Swaps and USTBond carry trade reversals. They needed to avoid a trigger of sell stops. They needed to prevent the rest of the world selling off USTBonds within their reserves management systems, the foundation of their national banking systems. So the USFed and Big US Banks called upon themselves to place artificial high bids on USTBonds sold among themselves in a circle jerk of Flash Trading."
"Once more, I'll be first driven by watching prices, supports, resistances, than "fundamental" news."
DeleteAnd more precisely, you want to watch supports and resistances, becauses the game of Bears has been to defend key resistance levels until the bulls exhaust themselves and give up.
If 1350 $ is one of these lines of defense, we will soon know.
If we remain near this resistance without succeeding a breakthrough, watch indicators such as OBVD (on balance volume distribution).
A divergence on this indicator may tell you that the big hands are selling a lot while prices are getting close to that level, pointing at bearish pressure and potential reversal.
Really, those indicators and technical elements are more relevant imho than any speculation about where the markets could go in the future.
What I am about to post is one of the most EYE OPENING pieces I have EVER read. I am on page 50, and have another 150 to go. I suggest everyone read this.
ReplyDeletehttps://fraser.stlouisfed.org/docs/historical/house/1934hr_goldresact.pdf
I have highlighted interesting points (that mirror our current economic situation) however it is too big a file to post, so you will have to highlight your own thoughts. I have left the markets, and will not return until things systemically change, which they will not.
I ask you all to read this, and head this.
Read pg 49, line 16 to catch your attention... it is one of many sad sad points that we have now REALIZED in our country. At the time, it was thought ridiculous. It is a great example of the sad state of affairs in our country that we cannot learn from history.
It also discusses the Exchange Stabilization Fund (the idea anyway) and its origins in combatting England on an economic level.
BTW, I meant line 16 through the rest of the page! Not line 16 singularly...
DeleteIt seems as though I am watching 2000 years of history with gold as a mainstay of stability, go right down the drain.
ReplyDeleteHi guy,
ReplyDeleteI am going to short both gold and silver..
Short term indicator not bullish..
Cheer
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteLooks like gold has good support at in the $1320ish range, keeps bouncing off it. This could be the intermediate bottom.
ReplyDelete