"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat
Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput
Trader Dan's Work is NOW AVAILABLE AT WWW.TRADERDAN.NET
Good job as usual, Dan.
ReplyDeleteLooking at the huge volume in some of the charts, I see a 50/50 probability that the GDX could be starting another massive leg down after this 2 month counter trend rally.
Franco Nevada, for example, traded down with 9 million shares!! Over 6x normal daily volume. Huge sign of distribution.
Yeah, you can blame it on index shuffling, BIS manipulation, "Central Planners", yada, yada, yada, but the fact is that there was massive imbalance of sellers vs. buyers.
Sometimes I feels like we are all masochists for even paying attention to this sector.
By contrast, we could have all stayed invested in Fed and institutional supported "Glam" stocks instead.
For example, 9 months ago, we could have put $25,000 in just 6 randomly selected "market leaders" in the Internet, retail or social media space.
All of which have been completely unfazed and immune to:
- Hindenberg Omens
- Syria Conflicts
- Taper vs. No Taper
- Inflation vs. Deflation
- Bond Market Selloffs
And the result?
PCLN up 168%
TSLA up 561%
GMCR up 218%
FB up 178%
UA up 164%
NFLX up 357%
Total portfolio now worth $411,121, a 274% gain in just 9 months!
Instead of sitting around staring bug-eyed at every tick of the Kitco screen, we could have all been retired from trading for awhile after making a decade worth of returns in such a short period of time.
Just sayin'.....
Mark,
DeleteYour summary analyses, based on hindsight of course, are spot on. If one could all go out into the future 6, 12 or 18 months to observe and collect data, and then zoom back to the original point in time and allocate capital for investment, one could become very wealthy. It's a shame that it doesn't work like that in the real world. Just sayin'...
This bond buying plan is running perfectly. Even better than anticipated - from the globalists' point of view. They need to consolidate as much wealth as possible by the end of the decade when they get their thermonuclear war to wipe the slate clean.
ReplyDeleteWhy is it running so well? They have convinced us that they are stupid and do not know what they are doing. Dan is right in one sense, the only way inflation, velocity, and the economy can pick up, at least in nominal terms, is to give the people the money. But as long as the money stays in the financial shell, the globalists can pick up all the assets with this printed money and not be noticed. Like Bush, Sr. said, Trickle down theory, is trickle up reality - into ever righter, whiter, and tighter hands.
The only way to make money is to buy and sell at a profit. Gold contracts are the best way. BTW - professionals trade gold from the short side 90% of the time - as I do. Price adjust more quickly on the down side, than from the long side. Plus the dumb money goes long and are easily scared. The dumb money doesn't know how to short. Jim Cramer talks about how to buy buy buy... Booyah!
I waited Thursday evening for a spike to about 1370 to raise the basis on my short position to scalp from. it never even came close. First warning... It drifted to 1363, and flatlined all session and low volume - even for Hong Kong open at 9pm ET - second warning.
I trade in New Mexico, which makes the time zones and my sleeping patterns even more of a pain (the mountains out here are beautiful from my window, where I trade for a living).
The home run hitters trade futures, so they can trade 24 hours a day. The best action and setups take place while the average person sleeps. When I saw that for 4 hours Thurs-Friday overnight, gold could not regain 1360, despite watching it try time and time again, I knew it was going to be a bad day (good day for me). And rode 4 short dec contracts down, until I peeled off 2 when the fed mouthpieces started to talk at about 1335.
I kept 1 into the weekend and bought the third back at 1328. Upshot - The official 1360 wall has now become the official 1325 floor. Look for a Sunday Night early lift, before any selling that may resume. If 1330 is taken out I may go long, depending on how early that number is taken out in the Sunday overnight session. If it takes hours and/or doesn't, look for the selling to resume. Gold and copper has actually held up the best post-FOMC announcement. Not only have I made money on this round trip, but have once again raised the cost basis on my physical - up to about 1800.
If you want to make money in gold you need to trade like gold - 24 hours a day.