"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat
Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput
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Bulls trying to get something going on this 'news'. Good to see them using some of the same tactics that the bears use (low volume spikes during off hours).
ReplyDeleteYou know for sure they are going to push it up to 1340 on Asia. Let's hope this story gets some momentum in the mainstream media and can be used as a catalyst for a nice 20% move to the upside.
Hi willydog,
DeleteThe market maker is both bull and bear.... so there is no bull or bear just manipulation ...
If you believe that the bull who control the market and the bear who control the market are different group of people.. then god bless you..
One thing you should realised that they do not take side... they play against what you think...( but there is limit to some extend which fundamental come to support company with cycle)
Cheer
If you are a short term trader, the only way to make money trading in the gold market is to pretend that you are a proprietary desk trader for Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan.
ReplyDeleteYou must think like a criminal:
What is the fastest and easiest way to make money for the next 48 to 72 hours?
No doubt everyone is scared to death of the FOMC coming up, along with the attendant gold manipulations in advance of such meeting, engineered by the "Central Planners"
I bet that gold stages a vicious rally as many trading funds are gunning the short bandwagon prior to the taper announcement.
Goldman Sachs loves to suck in the short term bears by creating technical breakdowns, then engineer a "rip your face off" rally to chase those guys out of their positions so they can go short at much higher prices.
No different than the "This Is It! It Is Now!" calls we heard over two years ago when PM prices were going parabolic and European credit was cratering, I guarantee that Goldman was shorting that rally while announcing higher gold price targets in its forecasts.
Everybody knows what happened next.
Dan; I do not know how to read late Friday; my instincts tell me to disregard; steve in sparks
ReplyDeleteSteve - the big test will be Sunday evening in Asia but more importantly as it rolls into the European trading hours and then into New York. If it clears $1330, then we can make something of the action; it is fails to penetrate that resistance, then it is merely a bounce in a downtrending market.
DeleteTime will tell us all.
There was quality demand that appeared, meaning price/volume accumulation, overnight and thru Friday before the move higher. The short term accumulation gives "legitimacy" to the move higher. It's the first quality demand that has shown up since the recent 1435ish high. So, we have some power below the market now to work on the supply right above. I'm getting more trigger happy to cover hedges from a few weeks ago certainly.
DeleteDan
ReplyDeleteYou mentioned the other day that gold needs a significant catalyst that outweighs the tapering noise and the Syria threat.
Your measured comment here last night which talks about how important, but still difficult getting over 1330 and staying here is tells us that gold is dealing with a lot of weakness at the moment.
As always if the shortages and charges of manipulation are not enough to drive gold, we could really see a move down. I am hoping of course for once all the talk of physical gold dictating price is finally near happening. Based on the take down Wed. and the looming tapering, possible Summers appointment, and convenient settlement of hostilities in Syria we still have a lot to be worried about in gold and silver.
Concord; my sources say Summers is a diminishing prospect, and, if you believe at all in W.D. Gann and his ideas, the Autumnal Equinox this week is the day of the year most likely to turn various commod and stk mkts. 49'ers 17, Seahawks 16; steve in sparks
DeleteSummers OUT as possible fed chairman, just hit news headlines...
DeleteSteve,
DeleteSummers just pulled himself out of consideration. You probably already know. Maybe Geithner will take it, he is Obama's first choice.
Be careful you aren't a know it all, trying to move up in the world and with the wrong crowd that denies Summers is an inflationist hawk, that his record and background have made him one of the world's richest financiers and tycoons or that inflation fueled interest rate swaps, bond monetization and dollar support are not priority #1 for the "taper" fibbers. Miley Cyrus may not be a reason to buy gold but it's more relevant than any fib about government deficit reduction, debt ceiling lies or war head fakes are at determining what gold should do, to say nothing of the REAL economy on Main Street, divorced from the military/security/industrial complex holed up in DC, NY and London.
ReplyDeleteA few years ago dozens of financial analysts, fund managers and other economic and business professionals were certain the long-term bull market in gold had only just begun, that inflation-adjusted real price of PM's was much higher, that best practices and tradition were alive and well.
Now, except for a few, no one dares let on where the markets are coming from because it's left hand no longer seems to want to know what it's right is doing, and Wizard "Helicopter" Ben wants out while the door is still open. There remains those ever-growing lists of 100+ reasons to be in PM's, maybe not just to be a strong hand physical PM owner at this precarious though opportune time, but to savor other advantages as well.
We may never know where are all the bodies are buried but just knowing that they were is a real lesson of valor and honor.
We'll never know all the ins and outs of modern markets movers and shakers and high frequency rakers, but we know throwing the bums out will again be standard operating procedure along with GAAP and term and tolerance limits. Make the most of a bad bargain because it's time the regulators knew whether they were coming or going.
Those who thought gold would open gangbusters are disappointed. Gold is at 1333. The dollar is down strongly and the shorts in gold are not covering. They are going to fight it tooth and nail.
ReplyDeleteDan's comment seems right as usual, gold going into London faces some headwinds. Amazing even with news helping gold it can't get a lot of traction.
A gold bull like myself, will have to admit that until either 1540 is taken out or the gold bears will say that gold is not bearish anymore, then all the advantage is on the bears side. Why a 17 trillion debt and counting hasnt changed that situation is more then a bit strange.
DeleteI am a gold bull Arnie and we are a long way from 1540. We are actually down from the close Friday with all this positive news. I am wondering what it would take for the gold market to rally. Maybe the bull market is over. I hate to think of it that way but what on earth will wake it up.
DeleteEveryone; is it just me or are you beginning to feel like zerohedge is one of the lamest, cheapest, most ill-informed bullshitters out there? steve in sparks
ReplyDeleteSince you asked, so far it's just you.
DeleteWhat did they say at zerohedge? Kwn said that the gold market would be wild tonight. Not so much, it looks quiet as a mouse.
ReplyDeleteI will be buying DUST tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteOne thing you can be fairly sure of is that shorting Gold is still a safe bet.
FOMC meetings are always Gold negative now no matter what they say.
I am starting to think like Concord, if Gold can't gain traction under present conditions I simply cannot imagine what will get it going.
I am really starting to lose faith in PM's.
General equities are starting to look real good.
"General equities are starting to look real good."
DeleteDean, buddy, Where have you been the last 4 1/2 years?
US stocks are in a secular bull market, they should be looking good.
Why are so many people frustrating themselves so much by being bearish on US stocks. I don't get it.
Tom
DeleteI have been holding US equities...but not near enough.
I know...hindsight is 20/20, but I should have backed up the truck instead of picking away.
The question now is when does the Bull end?
Many analysts insist that the market will give a nice big "time to sell signal" and everyone will walk away with a nice profit.
Will it really happen that way?
Hey Dean, As real money, real time traders, we don't get the luxury of 20/20 do we Dean.
DeleteSecond guessing ourselves is an everyday experience as traders.
I don't see any major sell "signals" in US stocks whatsoever, as the volume is well contained. I do expect to see at least two more pushes higher before some more dangerous signals appear. However, I certainly wouldn't be buying now as I only buy into weakness.
Also, I'd never criticize someone for taking some profits at appropriate price points, but to me in an uptrend the more important question to ask is when/where to buy.
Dean,
ReplyDeleteI have been a gold bull, this lack of momentum is really getting to me. What does it take? Stocks are so overvalued, yet they have momentum. I think word must have leaked out Friday Summers was going to drop out and that drove gold at the close.
To the guys who are complaining about gold not rising, no offense as I'm not trying to be rude, but quit complaining. Markets are markets. You talk about all the "bullish fundamentals" for gold. That is the huge, long term, big picture. You actually have a short term perspective, yet you're quoting long term reasons why gold should go up. Your time frame as regards to markets is totally screwed up. You'll never make it in markets with such a mismatch in time frames. Short term to intermediate term, markets move solely based on "technical" factors.
ReplyDeleteWe presently are right into a large area of supply, meaning resistance. Gold has to somehow work its' way thru the supply BEFORE it moves higher. That's just how markets work.
Please stop complaining and learn how to take control of your trading/investment accounts.
You are totally controlled by the "manipulators".
Why won't you hedge, go short, at the appropriate time/price and take some control back and fix your time frame issues.
I
Tom,
DeleteI don't think it is crazy to have expected a bounce tonight. We didn't get it so I am expressing my consternation. I sincerely wish I had your traders mentality. No doubt after ten years of having a very forgiving gold market things have changed and trading makes sense. So just consider I am not complaining just coming to a realization gold is in a very nasty long intermediate downturn.
Concord, don't get me wrong. I'm very bullish on gold long term also. And I've felt for a long time that we won't see new highs in gold for at least 4 years from the 9/6/2011 high. I actually am not as bearish on gold as you are right now as I feel gold is in a huge multiyear accumulation area which will include lots of bottoms, not just one. So, I hedge my long gold at times , and cover into weakness and repeat that again.
DeleteOf course, hopefully doing a decent job at that, or else I'm screwed. Gold just needs alot of time IMO.
Thanks Tom,
DeleteWhen you hedge do you use vehicles like Dust and DZZ? Or are there other preferable ways to do it. I see that Martin Armstrong has now become the most accurate predictor of gold performance in the last year or so? While I am very impressed with him I know his time for being favor will come to an end as well.
The excuse for being a complaining,passive gold bag holder has come after ten years of being bailed out of every correction to higher highs. That time as you wisely reminded is no longer with us.
Thanks
Concord, I don't use any leveraged ETF products, since most are illiquid, I only use liquid products like GDX or GLD, for example. Also, no futures. Sometimes options, but only short premium, never buy premium.
DeleteI keep things simple, it's tough enuf trying to catch turning points, which is my style.
So you've learned some valuable lessons the last few years. Hard work, losing money, and experience are the kernels of future market products, so don't despair.
Be attentive, at some point the secular uptrend will reassert itself and hedging profits will become more erratic.
Let's review [for XAG:USD]
ReplyDeleteFrom 18.00-19.00 level [Sept 2010] to 49.00 level [May 2011], it took only 8 months to reach the high.
From 49.00 level [May 2011 high] to 18.00-19.00 level [July 2013 low], it took 26 months.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Laj3eQiz9IM/UjXRZa6hsGI/AAAAAAAAASU/6G0NnELDVxg/s1600/Silver+technical+chart.jpg
CONCLUSION: If indeed the July 2013 was the long term bottom as per Dan's thinking [*July 2013 bottom being the same level as in September 2010] and assuming that it rises from here at the same speed it did before [ie 8 months], we could be at the 49.00 level by March-April 2014. The catalyst? The FOMC decision on 17-18 Sept 2013?
HAHA.....Just writing out some dreamland thinking.
Cheers!
The gold bulls were able to take the price from 500 to 1900. If they still have it in them, it wont be a dream scenario, it will be real. It seems that there are more tailwinds to make it happen now, then even before. But as the saying goes, the proof is in the pudding.
DeleteObviously the gold manipulation, according to the news, had to be on the short side, otherwise the market wouldnt have gone up after the news hit. But unless someone wants to get to the bottom of it, it wont mean a thing. Didnt Obama say he wanted to get to the bottom of the IRS scandal? But he will stonewall forever. Same is possible with the manipulation story.
ReplyDeleteConcord
ReplyDeleteI also have been a gold bull...not so much anymore. As I mentioned to Tom, I have been buying US equities over the past several years but not enough...I was being too cautious.
What worries me now is that everyone is in US equities...when you are at cocktail parties and everyone is boasting of the easy money in the US market...well...from past experience this is usually a warning sign.
Jim Rogers said when asked about US equities " I never buy anything that is at all time highs"
Dan has even stated that it is a fools paradise.
However, being realistic, we know that the FED will move heaven and earth to ensure the DOW continues it's relentless climb..and that is the only fundamental we need to know right now.
This is not being bearish on US stocks but I think caution is still wise.
Concord, I goofed. It should read --
ReplyDeleteHard work, losing money, and experience are the kernels of future market profits, so don't despair.
Also, just because something doesn't bounce doesn't necessarily imply bearish, right.
Tom thanks for your very helpful comments. I really appreciate it.
DeleteTom; most important pt you made was the appreciation of TIME concept; many never grasp it; swb in sparks
DeleteKWN's most senstational story of the year released close to the market close last Friday ( re: Maguire and his Merry Band of JPM whistle blowers) causes Gold and Silver to end lower today. ?!?! Go figure.
ReplyDeleteWW - What caused gold to be lower? Maybe the Japanese have been given Fukushima pills in exchange for BOJ BULLion. The rest of us should take advantage of the current lull to sell puts and live out òur dreams while our bodies are cancer-free. I am a buyer of silver in here, per it's decorative properties and open interest on MTV...
ReplyDelete