"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat
Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput
Trader Dan's Work is NOW AVAILABLE AT WWW.TRADERDAN.NET
Saturday, August 24, 2013
Trader Dan Interviewed at King World News Markets and Metals Wrap
Please click on the following link to listen in to my regular weekly audio interview with Eric King over at the KWN Weekly Markets and Metals Wrap.
Hello Dan; Good interview. I am struck though at how bullish everyone has become here of late after a furious $5 pop in silver, which to me is more indicative of a bear mkt rally as opposed to the beginning of a new bull mkt. Having said that, I am bullish but with no position and I hate to trade around holiday weeks unless already positioned right. Sinclair's hubris is something to behold as he says "$50 silver is a given". Oh, really? Anyway, let us all hope that we can get these goddamn fires out here in the west, as we have not seen the sun in days here in Reno/Tahoe; have a good weekend, steve in sparks
Steve if you listened to the interview with Dan I remember Eric King who I agree is a shameless gold promoter saying the people bullish in gold is still at one of the lowest points ever based on surveys.
People who hold gold like me are just sticking our heads up from the ground after the bloodshed in gold and silver.
I know you are a very skilled trader but what you say does not resonate, gold may stall soon but remember despite your dislike of gold bulls, gold has a place in this ethically and morally bankrupt financial system. I just can't see how anyone cannot see that. It went too far too fast two years ago and those of us investing in it are forever chastened. Still as Martin Armstrong says gold will rise beyond even nominal highs of 2300. When is the question.
Concord; I am bullish for the pull, but hesitant at current levels; no question the fundamentals are there and the financial system is pathetically putrid; sad but true; steve
Eric King is a personal friend of mine and deeply believes that the current financial and monetary system is seriously flawed. That does not make him a "shameless gold promoter". What it does do is give him a very firm conviction that gold prices are going higher over the LONG term; a view which I also happen to share.
What you are not understanding, and something I have tried to repeatedly emphasize here, is that there are two different mindsets from those who INVEST in physical gold and those who TRADE the paper gold markets.
The leverage involved in trading requires that one be sufficiently skilled to read price charts and discern periods when the bears are in control versus times when the bulls are in control.
No matter ever goes straight up or straight down for that matter, without an inevitable correction in price. Attempting to ferret out when these corrections become changes in the underlying trend is where the real challenge in trading lies.
Investors have no such concerns if they are informed by a set of fundamentals which gives them a long term view. They can merely use any period of weakness as an opportunity to acquire more of the physical metal. What they are required to have however is patience.
Since most people do not possess much of that quality as they look for immediate gains every single day that passes, they tend to get upset at anyone who dares to inform them that that the price is going to opposite direction for reasons that seem to conflict with their longer term view.
Dan, I should not have used that description of Eric King. He is a promoter of gold but calling him shameless is not fair. I do feel he has been hyperbolic at times and I take everything he says from his perspective with a grain of salt. You go to Midas you get a muffler. You, Dan have been for me the counterbalance to that extreme rhetoric that had me thinking that gold could never disconnect from the fundamentals and drop so dramatically. I think Eric King's web site does serve a purpose and I am familiar with him from other blogs. Jim Sinclair has been a great leader and many target him like Martin Armstrong as a gold promoter. I look at Jim's position from a gold price of 249 or so and only can say how right he has been over these years until two years ago.
I went to see him at his Los Angeles meeting and felt even he had been chastened by this drop. Manipulated or not the drop in those holding has been devastating. I am a suffering holder of gold and gold shares. But clearly that is not Eric King's fault, it was mine. Gold will rise with a vengeance again but the question is when.
Steve, I am not a trader and do not understand what being bullish for the"pull" means. Does that mean long term? Armstrong says it will be until January or as late as the third quarter of 2015. Thanks
Concord; pull=long term, yes. Have you noticed that emotions are beginning to heat up here at this site? Winds of change are beginning to blow I think. See how Brazil is hitting the panic button, along with India? Sunday should be interesting. steve in sparks
Steve, With Brazil and India struggling to stabilize their currencies is that a headwind or tailwind for gold. Does the dollar get stronger in all this? Or is it anybody's guess?
For "investors", these two guys and their various contributors outright failed to:
1) Predict a crash in the HUI which exceeded the 2008 stock market crash in both size and duration.
2) Predict a 60% decline in the price of silver
3) A stern warning to gold bullion investors to take profits, step aside for maybe up to 2 years, and look towards other groups for investing before re-entering the PM market
4) Prepare investors to participate in the biggest, fastest, steepest rise in consumer discretionary stocks in stock market history, which suggests that the economy is not in the verge of a crash, but instead on the verge of one of the biggest booms in history.
The amount of money lost by betting on the "Endgame" financial scenario has to be world record breaking.
Now that is all water under the bridge.
All it would have taken to repair the damage would have been
1) An apology for getting it so wrong for so long by predicting insane and lofty future price targets on gold and silver.
2) An apology for ruining the finances of many who bet their entire retirement on that theme.
Since none of the above occurred, I don't blame many people for throwing Eric King and Sinclair under the bus.
Others were luckier as they quickly realized their error.
As an example, many of Jim Puplava's clients were steered towards PM and Peak Oil themes and lost fortunes believing all the hype about a crashing dollar and soaring commodity prices. Mr. Puplava has apologized for his errors and now preaches weekly about the importance of diversification and avoidance of the "gloom and doom" crowd.
In fact, he has completely abandoned his 10 years of research on these specific areas and now keeps an open mind to all sectors and ideas with respect to investing.
So for some, the sheer scope of the error cannot be excused.
Mark, You can kill the messenger, but keep the core message in mind :
1) a systemic event can happen anytime. Crashes come without warning. And when they come, it's already too late to protect oneself vs sudden hyperinflation or currency devaluation.
2) based on 1), short-term volatility, though irritating, is irrelevant. The point is to have some physical gold in your direct possession to protect you against 1)
3) physical gold investment is for saving, and is an insurance. It is not for trading. Not for leverage. Not for speculation. Jim's and Dan's blogs don't follow the same goals and not the same time horizons.
If you keep this core message in mind and know the reasons why you invested in physical gold, then you can kill the Messenger, after all. But before you do so, just ask yourself : had this messenger not existed, would you have bought gold at all? And are they 100% to blame if people started to mix insurance with short-term greed? Still, I agree with you that greed can be easily activated when experts communicate with too much confidence than there is only one way for gold, and it is up. There is one word missing in that sentence, which maybe speculators were to happy to forget : Long-term. One should be reminded all the time via KWN such blogs that those convictions are long-term and do not prevent from short-term violent drops. I agree it should have been pointed out more strongly after 12 years of uninterrupted rallye. Many people those experts wanted to protect, were unprepared for such pressure, and probably sold their gold with a loss and won't get back in the train again. I'm sad for them, because overall, I think the long-term message is right.
P.S : and of course, 1) is not limited to hyperinflation. I could mention default of your bank, bank account cyprus like confiscation, MF Global like implosion, pick your preference...
Mark; You make a lot of good points; the most important point that is lost on most investors and gamblers is the simple fact of life that they are basically looking to lose, as that removes any responsibility or chance for further financial ventures; no more pressure once you tap out; steve in sparks
@preditor : "My way of trading is buy when market extreme bearish and sell when the market extreme bullish. I never buy position when market already move up.. I don't like chasing market. So my trading view is quiet different from their view."
I think it is through debate that someone can learn. If everybody agrees 100% on everything, what do you confront and what new ideas can you learn from it? So, to me it is not a waste of time to answer you.
Your trading view is not everywhere different from mine. Buy when a market is extremely oversold? Why not. Intra-day, during panic days, especially a bit before the close, I already bought a desperately falling knife with extreme volatility and candles looking like capitulation with a profit. But it is a dangerous game. I had a mental stop loss far below but it was there, and I was playing small. Because I think that even if a market looks oversold, it can always become MORE oversold, however unlikely it sounds to you at the moment you make the trade. Which, by the way, is often the reason why markets panic and capitulate! People are used to some degree of volatility and don't expect them to suddenly accelerate down. Then they have no choice but to close their positions in a panic, which feeds the move down further, which is exactly what happened to gold imho in april after some strong manipulators managed to break prices down through 1500 $ by selling 400 tons of gold in 30 minutes. So, buying a huge position long on a bear trend, with no confirmation YET on the smaller time units that the market may at least make a pause means taking a huge risk every time. I don't like taking huge risks on my capital. I prefer to take small calculated risks, several times. Doesn't mean I won't sometimes buy in an oversold market. The difference with you is I will engage a small amount of my capital on such a bet, and I would try to wait for a confirmation on the smaller time unit, even if it means missing a few pips on the way up.
"I never buy position when market already move up.." Here, yes, I disagree. It dépends how far on the trend you already are. Of course, I wouldn't have bought more gold at 1900. But early in a trend? That's the task of a trader imho. To detect the change of trends early and get into it. But you want to take a risk before even having the signal, preditor. You want to buy in a bear trend just because the market seems very oversold, and you seem to be ready to engage a big amount of your capital on this belief.
Even doing so, you can still be right, if : - you do it on something which cannot be Worth zero (gold cannot get bankrupt...). - you do it long term as an investor because overall, you think that the price is greatly undervalued because of the Fundamentals. Long-term means you can hope value and Fundamentals will drag prices back up. I'm fine with that too if that's what you do.
But short-term like a few days or weeks? There is then no such thing as Fundamentals or value to take into account. Prices can go where they want, and you can become bankrupt easily, still wondering what went wrong while glancing at all the Eliott Waves, triple divergences, extreme diffusion indexes, convergence of long and short-term cycles you want. If you try to buy in a bear trend without any short-term signal on small time units that the trend may indeed reverse, then you are really trying to catch a falling knife, without much of a protection. As to buying position when market already move up, we do it within short term corrections in a bull trend most of the time, which means near an identified support, not when the prices are topping somewhere just under a resistance. So once again, it's about risk management, and risk / reward ratio, probabilities, esperance of gain. How do you manage that without a stop loss? It's blind trading, I'm not trying to judge you, just honestly to warn you about the risks you are taking from my own opinion. Don't take it bad, please.
P.S : if you are long-term investor in gold preditor, to show that to me it's different from trading, a quote from someone you may know and seems to go along with you :
"The only way to make big money is to have the courage to put your eggs in one basket." Jim Sinclair
Listen to TraderDan's interview. In my view, based on things Dan mentioned, I (with no leverage) have no need to sell anything here but stay in for the ride... and wish I had more investible capital.
I would guess you will quickly want to buy back anything you sell???
When i sell some position mean i book profit. I have lot of contract so it is nice to see some profit lock in. Anyway should it be what investment is all about.
But it does not mean i am bearish now. I am bull supporter
So JPM is selling Blythe. Now they sell Manhattan Plaza. Its customers say stand and deliver our gold, so the contracts go for delivery and JPM is the main stopper on gold. Hmm...is it smoke I smell here?
If the murderer in the white house gets us even more involved in Syria, I really do not want to be long anything; worse than Nixon+Carter+Reagan+Clinton+both Bushes; hard to believe that it has come to this; sad, very sad ; steve in sparks
Murderer? Now now... all he has tried to do is get everyone health care, stop gun violence, feed poor people with food stamps, fight for civil rights (sexual equality/ gay marriage), promote women's right to kill, uh i mean abort fetuses, promote green energy by giving subsidies to wonderful successful solar companies like Solyndra, eliminate greed on wall st., stop crony capitalism, raise taxes on wealthy (i mean middle class), reduce military spending (i mean cutting badly needed gear for troops in harms way), stop military from protecting US consulate in Libya, and the list goes on and on how wonderful he is, and you call him a murderer????
BTW, he also lets (i mean ensures) the NSA protect us (I mean spy on us) from terrorists (I mean tea party) folks. Not to mention have the IRS conduct audits of suspect taxpayers (I mean people that may not fall in line with BB).... to ensure they don't shirk their duty as taxpayers. After all, we need those taxes to help pay down our ballooning deficits created by GWB...
I'm out another 15-20% of my position at 1413 just now. This is precautionary and very short term. We are under a resistance area in the 1415-1425 area.
- on the weekly candles, during end of may and june 2013, despite some pushes through 1400 $, we never managed to close a week above 1400 $. - on the daily candles, during the same period of time, the open/close battle was set at around 1415 $ and we never managed to open/close above that line. - on the 2hours candle, we have a potential 123 MACD bearish coming on us (MACD 9 20 7), within the next few candles. - on the 15 minutes candles, I see a big upwards candle followed by a dead horizontal stop short of 1415 $. The MACD is already crossing down. - we are still very close to the upwards median of the fork which acts as a resistance, and we are touching the sup bollinger band in both daily and 2day time units.
So, I'm a bit careful here and I prefer to take some profit. It's very short term, the short-term trend is still bulish at the moment, but maybe within the next few days, we'll see a bit of a correction at least, so...I'm out a little bit more :)
P.S : on the 15 minutes, when we stopped before, the candles were wobbling, with some peaks and bottoms, but now we have a series of very small horizontal candles with a support at 1410 $ and a "cliff" under our feet because of the green candle which propelled us there. Now the support on the 15 minutes and 2 hours coincides around 1390 $, so as I said it's very short term and probably I'm worrying about a 25 $ drop only.
hmm...trying and that's it, caught in the intraday updates :) so I'm down watching the 5 minutes candles now, there is no confirmation that the trend will reverse down yet, even to only 1390. Only a resistance overhead starting at 1415 as I mentionned. If we keep going up a bit, I may re-buy my position as soon as 1415 and put a sell stop under 1410, it all dépends on the live price action, i.e sorry I started to try to make updates realtime on too short time units...it's really very uncomfortable to write a follow up, plus I'd totally fill this blog with cray updates lol. So forget about it, and I'll post mainly on my longer term trades.
Trader Dan! v.exciting developments in gold...tis brilliant...very bullish indeed...i would just love to know what levels you are watching, particularly regarding gold, silver and HUI...i dont know if you look at GDX too much but i do cos i follow NUGT and DUST but ive been riding PVG lately...anyway...i thought it was 1380/1385, 1400, 1420 and then;;? 1480? i remember on the way down if 1480 was breached in gold we were looking for an autmatic cliff drop to 1420 which kind of happened instantly...as for HUI...i guess 280 has been resistence but i expect that breached today with the 1400 psych level beaten cos of general economy/fed/debt and war headlines....and i think if macronews became irrelevant..any strike on syria would jump us to 1480...anyway, all my speculation aside, and i realise you take mondays off haha, what sayst you of the levels, esp for gold and HUI..;silver is just a monster recently but im more familiar with gold+shares. many thanks as usual!! (obviously i wish to avert war and im not up for innocents getting whacked for a conflict with 9 percent approval rating -not that we vote for war anymore - cos of some attack which we the west obbviously initiated by giving the jihadists some weapons )...ive converted into a non-interventionist a few years ago...bout the same time i became a gold buggy.
I'm enjoying everyone's banter on stop losses. I only trade stocks and options -- as a matter of fact I don't even know HOW to trade commodities.. Can it be done through a standard retail brokerage account? (I use e trade for stocks and options trading). What I wanted to add though was this: I use mental stop losses on small plays, and very loose stops on larger plays that I really relieve in. In my opinion one of the most important times to keep a tight stop, or a trailing stop if you can't follow prices closely, is when you're at a near a profit target! Setting that stop or trailing stop to guarantee a profit is a must! It's also a no brainier, because it gives the asset a chance to run with no downside risk, because if it falls the trailing stop will save it! Today is going to be awesome by the way. We breached 1417, which is the number I had in mind. Good luck all. And if anyone is ever bored and wants to explain how/where to trade commodities, I'll be happy to read up! Cheers friends.
no idea who used chemicals, but what a mess :( and now what, US army is going to save the poor population by...bombing Damas with Tomahawk missiles? How clever. And next, Iran, right? And next, a total mess and terrorism, like in Kabul, Bagdad, Tripoli? Warmongers is the right word, I think. We live in sad times.
I hope the fires receded near Reno, and you can see the sky. How is it going there? Seems to be completely out of control as well :(
Hubert Du Haut; Still hazy at 8 right now; I was in My Lai in '69, the year after Calley and he looks like a piker compared to what we have done in recent years and now this bullshit about who is gassing who; I know the Iraquis gassed Kurds and Iranians; Iranians never used gas, and guess what? They were the first democracy in the middle east and in '53, the Limeys and Yanks overthrew the government and installed the Shah, one of Ike's few mistakes; take care, treacherous mkts; steve in sparks
Hubert and Steve, I have heard from sources that the whole use of gas was not Assad but someone else, perhaps the rebels to make him look bad. Assad was clearly winning the war so chemical weapons seems a crazy decision. Of course I have no idea if it is true but it just speaks to the craziness of entering war there.
The powers that be will certainly go to whatever lengths they deem necessary regardless of lost lives, inflation, massive government overreach taxes, regs, wars, whatever to keep this BS overreach of a USSR going. Hope to be in a nice small town with deer stands in a couple of years. Please hold up until then, I hate moving in the middle of the night with the deed and mortgage left to the Big Banks..
whaaa? all PM stocks down despite a 20 buck pop above 1400, ... is that really just cos of the general stock market decline on Fed/economy/war? its a bit strange..its true that overall there was a lot of buying recently and alot of them were overbought but consolidation today seems a lil strange..earlier today everything was up nicer but here we have HUI at 272...seems like that 280 zone is a bigger roadblock than initially presumed...
It is Marks buddies trying to beat anything down because the whole thing is about to crash esp Banks including all Regionals, all stocks everything but OIL..thank god I got OIL..LOL
Mark is the Government Spy here. He is part of Cass Sunstein's plan to infiltrate, demoralize to see if he can get us to give up our Gold Bug mania. He is one of those guys who will attempt to get a Socialist Agenda by telling us everything that Ben has done is correct and that he is king of the world. LOL..I guess it is the New American Way. SOCIALISM, BIG GOV, SPYING on AMERICANS, and BIG BANKS and CENTRAL BANKS to lead the way into socialism. Right Mark?
So watch him call up the local Socialist/JPM traders and tell them to sell gold miners to nothing if need be. Quash paper everything. That is what Mark does best sell the Bilderberg agenda
More proof that if the "Endgame" is happening, shorting these gold stocks will probably be the fastest road to riches if you want to make a bet on a stock market crash.
I see that the "Glam" names like TSLA are still green on the day, a true "bastion of safety" during a financial crisis.
I mean really, you got to laugh at the hilarious games played by Wall St.
Mark, DUST is at 23 and change, down from 80+ a month ago. That you mention TSLA and that we see headlines that "Not even a market selloff can slow Tesla down". I'd imagine you're being provocative by advocating shorting miners now...or going long Tesla...Nothing against tech...but Tesla is what? I don't know the story of Tesla, but I can tell you that it's not a disruptive technology like aapl, msft, goog once were. It's a battery company, right? Its earnings are highly dependent on govt. subsidies...like, wait a minute, don't tell me...I'd say that TSLA's long term chart will more closely resemble that of FSLR than GOOG.
Mark you are a velvet hammer for Bernanke. Gold shares stink, tell me something I don't know.
The question is will gold keep moving up. If it does it won't matter if the stock market collapses. Gold stocks will move up not down. Check with your other friend Armstrong and check out his Homestake chart over fifty years from 1930 to 1980.
Mark is a through and through communist. His favorite web pages are Hilliary.com, Bernanke.com, Sunstein.com, and any other Socialist Communist, Totalatarian, regime. He sleeps under a Sickle and a Hammer. He flys that flag everyday. He blames the problems of a capitalistic world on too much of everything. Right now the Banks are dependent on the Government so he will defend anything that the Central Bankes do in the name of Socialism. Got Gold and for that matter mining stocks Mark. You will need them. LOL
Well as Gold Gaps up, why is it then that the Gold Miners are being sold. It must be that JPM is liquidating everything in order to get physical so that they can act like they still have gold. I bet that they have ZERO. Gold in the Ground will certainly be worth something. Even if they miners have to pay or barter against their inventory when the Chinese are buying it at $2,000 an ounce. LOL Certainly not selling it like JPM, Goldman on the Comex.
Mark; just checked in and it seems like there is a lot of hostility; this is normal in a last of month and prior to a holiday; bulls go crazy buying pm, energy, beans, etc.; I am still short yen and look to buy back into pm after good break, price and time-wise; take care, steve in sparks
By the way Mark..BKX DOWN over 3% step with the Miners. Looks like the Piggies (BAnks-ALL BANKS) are leading the stock market to slaughter. REGIONALS REELING AS WELL!!!! Now he hoping against hope about that Tesla company. Well their cars are only $35K-$100K each. I am sure there is hope for them. (Laughing hysterically at Mark) Hope those Piggies are doing real good for ol Markie. I think we are nearing a reset time and Markie better get something more than the Sickle and Flag to protect him. Maybe Cass, or Obammy have him a real good security force lined up. Maybe they don't. I sure hope so for Markies sake. LOL
Hello Dan; Good interview. I am struck though at how bullish everyone has become here of late after a furious $5 pop in silver, which to me is more indicative of a bear mkt rally as opposed to the beginning of a new bull mkt. Having said that, I am bullish but with no position and I hate to trade around holiday weeks unless already positioned right. Sinclair's hubris is something to behold as he says "$50 silver is a given". Oh, really? Anyway, let us all hope that we can get these goddamn fires out here in the west, as we have not seen the sun in days here in Reno/Tahoe; have a good weekend, steve in sparks
ReplyDeleteSteve if you listened to the interview with Dan I remember Eric King who I agree is a shameless gold promoter saying the people bullish in gold is still at one of the lowest points ever based on surveys.
ReplyDeletePeople who hold gold like me are just sticking our heads up from the ground after the bloodshed in gold and silver.
I know you are a very skilled trader but what you say does not resonate, gold may stall soon but remember despite your dislike of gold bulls, gold has a place in this ethically and morally bankrupt financial system. I just can't see how anyone cannot see that. It went too far too fast two years ago and those of us investing in it are forever chastened. Still as Martin Armstrong says gold will rise beyond even nominal highs of 2300. When is the question.
Concord; I am bullish for the pull, but hesitant at current levels; no question the fundamentals are there and the financial system is pathetically putrid; sad but true; steve
DeleteConcord;
DeleteEric King is a personal friend of mine and deeply believes that the current financial and monetary system is seriously flawed. That does not make him a "shameless gold promoter". What it does do is give him a very firm conviction that gold prices are going higher over the LONG term; a view which I also happen to share.
What you are not understanding, and something I have tried to repeatedly emphasize here, is that there are two different mindsets from those who INVEST in physical gold and those who TRADE the paper gold markets.
The leverage involved in trading requires that one be sufficiently skilled to read price charts and discern periods when the bears are in control versus times when the bulls are in control.
No matter ever goes straight up or straight down for that matter, without an inevitable correction in price. Attempting to ferret out when these corrections become changes in the underlying trend is where the real challenge in trading lies.
Investors have no such concerns if they are informed by a set of fundamentals which gives them a long term view. They can merely use any period of weakness as an opportunity to acquire more of the physical metal. What they are required to have however is patience.
Since most people do not possess much of that quality as they look for immediate gains every single day that passes, they tend to get upset at anyone who dares to inform them that that the price is going to opposite direction for reasons that seem to conflict with their longer term view.
Dan,
ReplyDeleteI should not have used that description of Eric King. He is a promoter of gold but calling him shameless is not fair. I do feel he has been hyperbolic at times and I take everything he says from his perspective with a grain of salt. You go to Midas you get a muffler. You, Dan have been for me the counterbalance to that extreme rhetoric that had me thinking that gold could never disconnect from the fundamentals and drop so dramatically. I think Eric King's web site does serve a purpose and I am familiar with him from other blogs. Jim Sinclair has been a great leader and many target him like Martin Armstrong as a gold promoter. I look at Jim's position from a gold price of 249 or so and only can say how right he has been over these years until two years ago.
I went to see him at his Los Angeles meeting and felt even he had been chastened by this drop. Manipulated or not the drop in those holding has been devastating. I am a suffering holder of gold and gold shares. But clearly that is not Eric King's fault, it was mine. Gold will rise with a vengeance again but the question is when.
Steve,
ReplyDeleteI am not a trader and do not understand what being bullish for the"pull" means. Does that mean long term? Armstrong says it will be until January or as late as the third quarter of 2015.
Thanks
Concord; pull=long term, yes. Have you noticed that emotions are beginning to heat up here at this site? Winds of change are beginning to blow I think. See how Brazil is hitting the panic button, along with India? Sunday should be interesting. steve in sparks
ReplyDeleteSteve,
DeleteWith Brazil and India struggling to stabilize their currencies is that a headwind or tailwind for gold. Does the dollar get stronger in all this? Or is it anybody's guess?
Concord; Anybody's guess; I stay short Yen and add on the way down if mkt says I am right; steve in sparks
ReplyDeleteAs for King World News....
ReplyDeleteand Jim Sinclair....
The bottom line is this:
For "investors", these two guys and their various contributors outright failed to:
1) Predict a crash in the HUI which exceeded the 2008 stock market crash in both size and duration.
2) Predict a 60% decline in the price of silver
3) A stern warning to gold bullion investors to take profits, step aside for maybe up to 2 years, and look towards other groups for investing before re-entering the PM market
4) Prepare investors to participate in the biggest, fastest, steepest rise in consumer discretionary stocks in stock market history, which suggests that the economy is not in the verge of a crash, but instead on the verge of one of the biggest booms in history.
The amount of money lost by betting on the "Endgame" financial scenario has to be world record breaking.
Now that is all water under the bridge.
All it would have taken to repair the damage would have been
1) An apology for getting it so wrong for so long by predicting insane and lofty future price targets on gold and silver.
2) An apology for ruining the finances of many who bet their entire retirement on that theme.
Since none of the above occurred, I don't blame many people for throwing Eric King and Sinclair under the bus.
Others were luckier as they quickly realized their error.
As an example, many of Jim Puplava's clients were steered towards PM and Peak Oil themes and lost fortunes believing all the hype about a crashing dollar and soaring commodity prices. Mr. Puplava has apologized for his errors and now preaches weekly about the importance of diversification and avoidance of the "gloom and doom" crowd.
In fact, he has completely abandoned his 10 years of research on these specific areas and now keeps an open mind to all sectors and ideas with respect to investing.
So for some, the sheer scope of the error cannot be excused.
Mark,
DeleteYou can kill the messenger, but keep the core message in mind :
1) a systemic event can happen anytime. Crashes come without warning. And when they come, it's already too late to protect oneself vs sudden hyperinflation or currency devaluation.
2) based on 1), short-term volatility, though irritating, is irrelevant. The point is to have some physical gold in your direct possession to protect you against 1)
3) physical gold investment is for saving, and is an insurance. It is not for trading. Not for leverage. Not for speculation. Jim's and Dan's blogs don't follow the same goals and not the same time horizons.
If you keep this core message in mind and know the reasons why you invested in physical gold, then you can kill the Messenger, after all.
But before you do so, just ask yourself : had this messenger not existed, would you have bought gold at all?
And are they 100% to blame if people started to mix insurance with short-term greed? Still, I agree with you that greed can be easily activated when experts communicate with too much confidence than there is only one way for gold, and it is up. There is one word missing in that sentence, which maybe speculators were to happy to forget : Long-term. One should be reminded all the time via KWN such blogs that those convictions are long-term and do not prevent from short-term violent drops. I agree it should have been pointed out more strongly after 12 years of uninterrupted rallye. Many people those experts wanted to protect, were unprepared for such pressure, and probably sold their gold with a loss and won't get back in the train again. I'm sad for them, because overall, I think the long-term message is right.
P.S : and of course, 1) is not limited to hyperinflation. I could mention default of your bank, bank account cyprus like confiscation, MF Global like implosion, pick your preference...
DeleteMark; You make a lot of good points; the most important point that is lost on most investors and gamblers is the simple fact of life that they are basically looking to lose, as that removes any responsibility or chance for further financial ventures; no more pressure once you tap out; steve in sparks
ReplyDelete@preditor :
ReplyDelete"My way of trading is buy when market extreme bearish and sell when the market extreme bullish. I never buy position when market already move up.. I don't like chasing market. So my trading view is quiet different from their view."
I think it is through debate that someone can learn. If everybody agrees 100% on everything, what do you confront and what new ideas can you learn from it? So, to me it is not a waste of time to answer you.
Your trading view is not everywhere different from mine.
Buy when a market is extremely oversold? Why not. Intra-day, during panic days, especially a bit before the close, I already bought a desperately falling knife with extreme volatility and candles looking like capitulation with a profit. But it is a dangerous game. I had a mental stop loss far below but it was there, and I was playing small. Because I think that even if a market looks oversold, it can always become MORE oversold, however unlikely it sounds to you at the moment you make the trade. Which, by the way, is often the reason why markets panic and capitulate! People are used to some degree of volatility and don't expect them to suddenly accelerate down. Then they have no choice but to close their positions in a panic, which feeds the move down further, which is exactly what happened to gold imho in april after some strong manipulators managed to break prices down through 1500 $ by selling 400 tons of gold in 30 minutes.
So, buying a huge position long on a bear trend, with no confirmation YET on the smaller time units that the market may at least make a pause means taking a huge risk every time. I don't like taking huge risks on my capital. I prefer to take small calculated risks, several times.
Doesn't mean I won't sometimes buy in an oversold market.
The difference with you is I will engage a small amount of my capital on such a bet, and I would try to wait for a confirmation on the smaller time unit, even if it means missing a few pips on the way up.
"I never buy position when market already move up.."
Here, yes, I disagree. It dépends how far on the trend you already are. Of course, I wouldn't have bought more gold at 1900. But early in a trend? That's the task of a trader imho. To detect the change of trends early and get into it.
But you want to take a risk before even having the signal, preditor. You want to buy in a bear trend just because the market seems very oversold, and you seem to be ready to engage a big amount of your capital on this belief.
Even doing so, you can still be right, if :
- you do it on something which cannot be Worth zero (gold cannot get bankrupt...).
- you do it long term as an investor because overall, you think that the price is greatly undervalued because of the Fundamentals. Long-term means you can hope value and Fundamentals will drag prices back up. I'm fine with that too if that's what you do.
But short-term like a few days or weeks?
There is then no such thing as Fundamentals or value to take into account. Prices can go where they want, and you can become bankrupt easily, still wondering what went wrong while glancing at all the Eliott Waves, triple divergences, extreme diffusion indexes, convergence of long and short-term cycles you want.
If you try to buy in a bear trend without any short-term signal on small time units that the trend may indeed reverse, then you are really trying to catch a falling knife, without much of a protection.
As to buying position when market already move up, we do it within short term corrections in a bull trend most of the time, which means near an identified support, not when the prices are topping somewhere just under a resistance. So once again, it's about risk management, and risk / reward ratio, probabilities, esperance of gain. How do you manage that without a stop loss? It's blind trading, I'm not trying to judge you, just honestly to warn you about the risks you are taking from my own opinion. Don't take it bad, please.
P.S : if you are long-term investor in gold preditor, to show that to me it's different from trading, a quote from someone you may know and seems to go along with you :
Delete"The only way to make big money is to have the courage to put your eggs in one basket."
Jim Sinclair
P.P.S : another quote from the same person, which I'm trying to follow everyday :
Delete"The prime directive in life is to keep good company."
Have a nice day,
Thanks for Giving your market views, I like you sharing information
ReplyDeletestock tips, Nifty future tips
Hi ,
ReplyDeleteClosing some position today in silver and gold...
Cheer
"Closing some position today in silver and gold."
DeleteListen to TraderDan's interview. In my view, based on things Dan mentioned, I (with no leverage) have no need to sell anything here but stay in for the ride... and wish I had more investible capital.
I would guess you will quickly want to buy back anything you sell???
Hi peter,
DeleteWhen i sell some position mean i book profit. I have lot of contract so it is nice to see some profit lock in. Anyway should it be what investment is all about.
But it does not mean i am bearish now. I am bull supporter
Cheer
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-16/jpmorgan-marketing-downtown-s-1-chase-manhattan-plaza.html
ReplyDeleteSo JPM is selling Blythe.
Now they sell Manhattan Plaza.
Its customers say stand and deliver our gold, so the contracts go for delivery and JPM is the main stopper on gold.
Hmm...is it smoke I smell here?
Durable Goods # so far off from consensus---what a joke! steve in sparks
ReplyDeleteIf the murderer in the white house gets us even more involved in Syria, I really do not want to be long anything; worse than Nixon+Carter+Reagan+Clinton+both Bushes; hard to believe that it has come to this; sad, very sad ; steve in sparks
ReplyDeleteMurderer? Now now... all he has tried to do is get everyone health care, stop gun violence, feed poor people with food stamps, fight for civil rights (sexual equality/ gay marriage), promote women's right to kill, uh i mean abort fetuses, promote green energy by giving subsidies to wonderful successful solar companies like Solyndra, eliminate greed on wall st., stop crony capitalism, raise taxes on wealthy (i mean middle class), reduce military spending (i mean cutting badly needed gear for troops in harms way), stop military from protecting US consulate in Libya, and the list goes on and on how wonderful he is, and you call him a murderer????
ReplyDeleteBTW, he also lets (i mean ensures) the NSA protect us (I mean spy on us) from terrorists (I mean tea party) folks. Not to mention have the IRS conduct audits of suspect taxpayers (I mean people that may not fall in line with BB).... to ensure they don't shirk their duty as taxpayers. After all, we need those taxes to help pay down our ballooning deficits created by GWB...
Nate; could not have said it better myself; steve in sparks
DeleteStock Market opened with gap down on Tuesday, BSE SENSEX dropped 500 points and Nifty fell 159 points.
ReplyDeleteGet Today Stock tips, Nifty tips.
I'm out another 15-20% of my position at 1413 just now.
ReplyDeleteThis is precautionary and very short term.
We are under a resistance area in the 1415-1425 area.
- on the weekly candles, during end of may and june 2013, despite some pushes through 1400 $, we never managed to close a week above 1400 $.
- on the daily candles, during the same period of time, the open/close battle was set at around 1415 $ and we never managed to open/close above that line.
- on the 2hours candle, we have a potential 123 MACD bearish coming on us (MACD 9 20 7), within the next few candles.
- on the 15 minutes candles, I see a big upwards candle followed by a dead horizontal stop short of 1415 $. The MACD is already crossing down.
- we are still very close to the upwards median of the fork which acts as a resistance, and we are touching the sup bollinger band in both daily and 2day time units.
So, I'm a bit careful here and I prefer to take some profit.
It's very short term, the short-term trend is still bulish at the moment, but maybe within the next few days, we'll see a bit of a correction at least, so...I'm out a little bit more :)
P.S : on the 15 minutes, when we stopped before, the candles were wobbling, with some peaks and bottoms, but now we have a series of very small horizontal candles with a support at 1410 $ and a "cliff" under our feet because of the green candle which propelled us there.
DeleteNow the support on the 15 minutes and 2 hours coincides around 1390 $, so as I said it's very short term and probably I'm worrying about a 25 $ drop only.
hmm...trying and that's it, caught in the intraday updates :)
Deleteso I'm down watching the 5 minutes candles now, there is no confirmation that the trend will reverse down yet, even to only 1390. Only a resistance overhead starting at 1415 as I mentionned.
If we keep going up a bit, I may re-buy my position as soon as 1415 and put a sell stop under 1410, it all dépends on the live price action, i.e sorry I started to try to make updates realtime on too short time units...it's really very uncomfortable to write a follow up, plus I'd totally fill this blog with cray updates lol. So forget about it, and I'll post mainly on my longer term trades.
Trader Dan! v.exciting developments in gold...tis brilliant...very bullish indeed...i would just love to know what levels you are watching, particularly regarding gold, silver and HUI...i dont know if you look at GDX too much but i do cos i follow NUGT and DUST but ive been riding PVG lately...anyway...i thought it was 1380/1385, 1400, 1420 and then;;? 1480? i remember on the way down if 1480 was breached in gold we were looking for an autmatic cliff drop to 1420 which kind of happened instantly...as for HUI...i guess 280 has been resistence but i expect that breached today with the 1400 psych level beaten cos of general economy/fed/debt and war headlines....and i think if macronews became irrelevant..any strike on syria would jump us to 1480...anyway, all my speculation aside, and i realise you take mondays off haha, what sayst you of the levels, esp for gold and HUI..;silver is just a monster recently but im more familiar with gold+shares. many thanks as usual!! (obviously i wish to avert war and im not up for innocents getting whacked for a conflict with 9 percent approval rating -not that we vote for war anymore - cos of some attack which we the west obbviously initiated by giving the jihadists some weapons )...ive converted into a non-interventionist a few years ago...bout the same time i became a gold buggy.
ReplyDeleteI'm enjoying everyone's banter on stop losses. I only trade stocks and options -- as a matter of fact I don't even know HOW to trade commodities.. Can it be done through a standard retail brokerage account? (I use e trade for stocks and options trading). What I wanted to add though was this: I use mental stop losses on small plays, and very loose stops on larger plays that I really relieve in. In my opinion one of the most important times to keep a tight stop, or a trailing stop if you can't follow prices closely, is when you're at a near a profit target! Setting that stop or trailing stop to guarantee a profit is a must! It's also a no brainier, because it gives the asset a chance to run with no downside risk, because if it falls the trailing stop will save it! Today is going to be awesome by the way. We breached 1417, which is the number I had in mind. Good luck all. And if anyone is ever bored and wants to explain how/where to trade commodities, I'll be happy to read up!
ReplyDeleteCheers friends.
looks like Syrian escalation all but signed, sealed and delivered; energies all breaking out upside; what a mess; steve
ReplyDeleteyes Steve,
Deleteno idea who used chemicals, but what a mess :(
and now what, US army is going to save the poor population by...bombing Damas with Tomahawk missiles? How clever.
And next, Iran, right?
And next, a total mess and terrorism, like in Kabul, Bagdad, Tripoli?
Warmongers is the right word, I think. We live in sad times.
I hope the fires receded near Reno, and you can see the sky. How is it going there? Seems to be completely out of control as well :(
Hubert Du Haut; Still hazy at 8 right now; I was in My Lai in '69, the year after Calley and he looks like a piker compared to what we have done in recent years and now this bullshit about who is gassing who; I know the Iraquis gassed Kurds and Iranians; Iranians never used gas, and guess what? They were the first democracy in the middle east and in '53, the Limeys and Yanks overthrew the government and installed the Shah, one of Ike's few mistakes; take care, treacherous mkts; steve in sparks
DeleteHubert and Steve,
ReplyDeleteI have heard from sources that the whole use of gas was not Assad but someone else, perhaps the rebels to make him look bad. Assad was clearly winning the war so chemical weapons seems a crazy decision. Of course I have no idea if it is true but it just speaks to the craziness of entering war there.
Concord; You know what they say about the first casualty of war being the "truth". sad but true, steve in sparks
ReplyDeleteSeems like Miners are selling off with market; or market makers capping them. We shall see?
ReplyDeleteOil is doing some nice gaining in the ETF's however.
ReplyDeleteThe powers that be will certainly go to whatever lengths they deem necessary regardless of lost lives, inflation, massive government overreach taxes, regs, wars, whatever to keep this BS overreach of a USSR going. Hope to be in a nice small town with deer stands in a couple of years. Please hold up until then, I hate moving in the middle of the night with the deed and mortgage left to the Big Banks..
ReplyDeleteYep, mining stocks are always the first ones tossed over the side when a financial or geopolitical crisis hits.
ReplyDeleteAmazing how the GDX/GLD ratio simply cannot get out of the gutter, still near world record lows and still way below the 2009 lows.
Mark you may be right, but gdx was up 29.6% since the low this morning. It is probably profit taking as 1420 in gold is new territory.
Deletewhaaa? all PM stocks down despite a 20 buck pop above 1400, ... is that really just cos of the general stock market decline on Fed/economy/war? its a bit strange..its true that overall there was a lot of buying recently and alot of them were overbought but consolidation today seems a lil strange..earlier today everything was up nicer but here we have HUI at 272...seems like that 280 zone is a bigger roadblock than initially presumed...
ReplyDeleteIt is Marks buddies trying to beat anything down because the whole thing is about to crash esp Banks including all Regionals, all stocks everything but OIL..thank god I got OIL..LOL
ReplyDeleteMark is the Government Spy here. He is part of Cass Sunstein's plan to infiltrate, demoralize to see if he can get us to give up our Gold Bug mania. He is one of those guys who will attempt to get a Socialist Agenda by telling us everything that Ben has done is correct and that he is king of the world. LOL..I guess it is the New American Way.
ReplyDeleteSOCIALISM, BIG GOV, SPYING on AMERICANS, and BIG BANKS and CENTRAL BANKS to lead the way into socialism. Right Mark?
So watch him call up the local Socialist/JPM traders and tell them to sell gold miners to nothing if need be. Quash paper everything. That is what Mark does best sell the Bilderberg agenda
ReplyDeleteTell Cass I have a nice new round for him..it is called a 7.62 x 51..it will fit nicely as a head dressing...LOL
ReplyDeleteNEM down 2% while GLD still pinned at the highs.
ReplyDeleteMore proof that if the "Endgame" is happening, shorting these gold stocks will probably be the fastest road to riches if you want to make a bet on a stock market crash.
I see that the "Glam" names like TSLA are still green on the day, a true "bastion of safety" during a financial crisis.
I mean really, you got to laugh at the hilarious games played by Wall St.
Mark,
DeleteDUST is at 23 and change, down from 80+ a month ago. That you mention TSLA and that we see headlines that "Not even a market selloff can slow Tesla down". I'd imagine you're being provocative by advocating shorting miners now...or going long Tesla...Nothing against tech...but Tesla is what? I don't know the story of Tesla, but I can tell you that it's not a disruptive technology like aapl, msft, goog once were. It's a battery company, right? Its earnings are highly dependent on govt. subsidies...like, wait a minute, don't tell me...I'd say that TSLA's long term chart will more closely resemble that of FSLR than GOOG.
Sounds like fear tactics to help Mark's short-term gains. Where was Mark when $GOLD bottomed?
DeleteMark you are a velvet hammer for Bernanke. Gold shares stink, tell me something I don't know.
ReplyDeleteThe question is will gold keep moving up. If it does it won't matter if the stock market collapses. Gold stocks will move up not down. Check with your other friend Armstrong and check out his Homestake chart over fifty years from 1930 to 1980.
Newmont now down 6% from its opening high.
ReplyDeleteAs if every mining operation is going to close down due to Syria and Obamacare?
Mark is a through and through communist. His favorite web pages are Hilliary.com, Bernanke.com, Sunstein.com, and any other Socialist Communist, Totalatarian, regime. He sleeps under a Sickle and a Hammer. He flys that flag everyday. He blames the problems of a capitalistic world on too much of everything. Right now the Banks are dependent on the Government so he will defend anything that the Central Bankes do in the name of Socialism. Got Gold and for that matter mining stocks Mark. You will need them. LOL
ReplyDeleteWell as Gold Gaps up, why is it then that the Gold Miners are being sold. It must be that JPM is liquidating everything in order to get physical so that they can act like they still have gold. I bet that they have ZERO. Gold in the Ground will certainly be worth something. Even if they miners have to pay or barter against their inventory when the Chinese are buying it at $2,000 an ounce. LOL Certainly not selling it like JPM, Goldman on the Comex.
ReplyDeleteMark; just checked in and it seems like there is a lot of hostility; this is normal in a last of month and prior to a holiday; bulls go crazy buying pm, energy, beans, etc.; I am still short yen and look to buy back into pm after good break, price and time-wise; take care, steve in sparks
ReplyDeleteBy the way Mark..BKX DOWN over 3% step with the Miners. Looks like the Piggies (BAnks-ALL BANKS) are leading the stock market to slaughter. REGIONALS REELING AS WELL!!!! Now he hoping against hope about that Tesla company. Well their cars are only $35K-$100K each. I am sure there is hope for them. (Laughing hysterically at Mark) Hope those Piggies are doing real good for ol Markie. I think we are nearing a reset time and Markie better get something more than the Sickle and Flag to protect him. Maybe Cass, or Obammy have him a real good security force lined up. Maybe they don't. I sure hope so for Markies sake. LOL
ReplyDeleteWhite Wolf:
ReplyDeleteDUST up 15% if you bought the opening gap down.
staying short yen; steve in sparks
ReplyDelete