"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat
Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput
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nice interview as usual...shame KWN volume is always so loud, scares the schnizz out of me...but i hope mondya there is some follow up buying from last minute friday and that week we can hopefully take out 1350 and go to 1370/75...dont know what to expect from the Fed,ill stay out of the market for that just in case... and i duno when they will announce the new fed chairmen..i bet its the lady cos Obama will get points for gender and Summers will make bond rates go up...but that announcement and the debt ceiling should be sweet for gold prices...but with what happened last minute friday, i just cant see 1300 being taken out that easily...
ReplyDeletehey precious wood, I thought I was the only one that laughed until I cried when listening to von Greyerz, Hathaway, Leeb, Maguire, Sprott and all the rest ; seriously though, Norcini, Zulauf, Faber, and Stockman are gold and it is just a shame that we have to listen to 2 year old fundamentals for why silver and gold should go to the moon next month; hang in there champ and have a good week; I call PM lower right out of the box Sunday; steve in sparks
ReplyDeletewrong opening call; steve in sparks
ReplyDeleteI think well trade between here and 1424 the coming weeks.
ReplyDeleteyeah i think everyone knows that KWN has lost a bit of its reputation, esp since that massive drop and i do remember one of them saying it would never go below 1400 and then there we are under 1200 weeks later....that was a lil frustrating....but i do still value and read everything there...and if it werent for them id have never met Dan, haha...but yeah, regardless, i think KWN will be proven eventually right, quite soon, the new fed chairman, the debt ceiling and this feeling of a black swan coming (JPM aborting physical commodities, massive stock market correction, or deutsche bank being in the sheisse)..such events can whack gold up...anyway, im looking forward to tomorrow...
ReplyDeleteAnybody listen to Jim Puplava lately?
ReplyDeleteHe's done an about face, making fun of "Armageddites" like Jim Sinclair and KWN and all the gloom and doom naysayers.
After 10 years of pushing gold and Peak Oil themes his show is now dedicated to pushing Dow stocks and scolding those who had overweight positions in gold, now he says no more than 5% allocation.
He's totally caved in to the Ben Bernanke No Inflation thesis and now says gold is a dead investment for now and he sounds like Bob Brinker now, pushing for diversification and buy and hold stocks for longer term time periods, meanwhile Chris Puplava dedicates 15 minute of the show micro-analyzing Fedspeak, credit markets, and technical analysis as if he were a daytrader.
Amazing how Ben Bernanke's Fed has turned the most staunch gold supporters around into Fed worshippers.
Puplava now wishes he gave a 10 year lecture about consumer stocks instead of his anti-dollar themes prior to 2010, he'd be the a Wall St. rock star hero by now.
Bob Brinker still up to his old tricks, dissing gold and making fun of the "bad news bears".
Mark; you are falling into the trap that sometimes I fall into, in that you read and research too much; Puplava and co is just another donkey outfit that tries to find a trend and get out in front of it, just like politicians and parades; it is a shame but even Barron's is pretty worthless nowadays, as most of the old pros are gone and now are being replaced of course by young kids who you should fade or ignore; Bass and Kendry are worth listening too and here is a kid that I think might know something; http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-07-28/japan-quagmire-abenomics-collapse; steve in sparks
ReplyDeleteDanny, if XAU & HUI gaps are closed, I do not like upside potential for the time being; Aug is lousy mo for metals and Sept is the worst for stks, so I can not get bullish; as for corn and beans, well, the bigger the bull, the bigger the bear and God love the bulls when they come out with frost stories and you know another leg down is in store; see you Thanksgiving boys for bean and corn bottoms at 9 and 4 ; steve in sparks
ReplyDeleteRead about Mike Stathis instead. He predicted the 2008 meltdown in his 2006 book and has been preaching about the gold collapse since 2010. In 2006 he predicted that gold will reach around 2000 dollar and than turn into a bear market. That's what is happening right now.
ReplyDeleteHe is saying now that gold will be around 800 dollar in two years.
Sadly I got to now him too late. It's because the media does not like him since he was destroying the crap talk of the gold permabulls like Greyerz who makes a living of selling gold bullions.
monday :
ReplyDeletebulls must break quickly the 1340 (median)-1348 (fibo) area or we are going to stall as we stalled at 1490 then at 1420. (besides, if we do, it seems like the upper résistances go down every 70 $ like clockwork : 1490-1420-1350).
There is an upwards channel support in the 1300 $ area.
Bulls had better find their courage there if we are to keep going up with some technical supports under our feet.
Gold at 800 $?
Why not...though I'm of those who think that there will sometime be an "emancipation of gold prices" as Sinclair stated, through the pressure on physical stocks, I don't know how long the paper game can still endure. After all, in case of a panic / capitulation event, gold prices may plummet to 1000 $ within a month, so why not? That's why I always protect my positions on the paper / speculative side of my gold position.
Everybody hates gold. The shares are loathed. Are there any investors left or are we all daytraders now? Im a buyer here.
ReplyDeleteHi Jasper.
DeleteI am a long-term investor in gold.
The middle-term trend is bearish.
Which is exactly why I am also a daytrader, or rather, I'm keeping a close look at the "small" time units (at an investor's point of view) such as daily candles.
Because if a change of trend comes to happen, it will happen first in the smaller time unit.
You will detect first the signs of a reverse on the daily time unit.
So, there is no point to try to pick a bottom as long as you are in a full strength downward move, with no way to know when and where it will stop.
Instead, using T.A may help you detect early when the trend reverses and when to buy with low risk of additional loss.
So as an investor, I'm happy to monitor gold prices daily right now, in order to see when I will add up to my position.
Of course, you may not see the point to do that, and will probably do ok if you regularly add up moderately for the long-term. But then you have to be very patient, especially if you bought last months when prices were collapsing and didn't protect yourself.
As a long-term investor, I also like T.A, which helped me protect my positions, most recently when gold prices went through 1539 then 1469 $.
Hi jasper,
ReplyDeleteEverything have cycle.. Short , medium and long term.
It is important that we are living in long term cycle of de leveraging ...
And have to flexible on your position... Bear or bull adjust according to the situation.
I have two suit in my locker... One is bull and other is bear.. For pm I am in the bull and base on my time line it will be about 1 and half month from now before I switch my suit to bear suite.
Anyway, I am just a novice investor..
Cheer
Hubert and Preditor.
DeleteFait enough, I dont trade too much (small portion of my portfolio) its just that people seem to buy to hold at tops and trade at bottoms.
I think it may take a while before the gold will start trending up seriously again but as an investor one really shouldnt care too much if one pays 1300 or 1200 at this point.
Investors should just accumulate at these levels IMO.
Hi Dan,
ReplyDeleteAndrew Maguire tries to help describe what gold backwardation is taking place and references your description as well. He appears to have a different take on the matter and I thought you might want to take a look...
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4888/guest-post-andrew-maguire-discusses-gofo-and-gold-backwardation
Very interesting, thanks for the link!
Delete"from a real cash wholesale perspective the London spot or cash market dwarfs physical activity on the Comex."
Yes, I totally agree with that one.
I hope we'll have further info about this interesting discussion between two experts. I'm definitely very interested in becoming a bit less of an idiot at the end of the week, thanks to them :) Thanks a lot to Dan and Andrew for having made such a detailed and described case about this topic. It's not through MSM that I could have learnt what I already know.
he is a clown and nobody pays any attention to him in Europe anymore, like von Greyerz and how many others do I need to not mention? steve in sparks
ReplyDeleteI don't think Mc Guire is a clown, and I'm a european (even french, but hush, we are building Euroland now, remember :)), neither EVG, but both have some interests (subscription letters, gold storage companies...), so I also always prefer the advice of the ones who have nothing to win by convincing you. I can't emphasize enough that I respect Dan for that, because he doesn't get anything from this blog, and doesn't need our fees for a living.
DeleteJim can talk about MOPE on his blog, and I agree, but what about this article?
"Russia continues its gold buying spree, adding 0.3 tonnes to its 996.4 tonne stockpile, marking a nine month increase."
A buying SPREE???
300 kilos per month??
For a country such as the Russian Federation?
"President Putin continues to buy nearly half a billion dollars worth of gold each month"
My god, you mean 6 whole billion dollars of gold per year? I'm so amazed and frightened by the sheer size of this dramatic gold purchase.
There is BS both ways, on MSM against gold, and on the "pro gold" articles.
There is only one way imho to stay neutral in all this and try to keep an objective and clear eye on the things : do what Sinclair, Dan and probably Mc Guire do : use your own brains, make up your mind on your own, make you own décisions, and keep a critic eye on everything you hear and read. You are your best teacher.
Steve- Obviously you are entitled to your own opinion. However, Andrew was an integral part of exposing the highly paper leveraged and manipulative actions of the bullion banksters as well as being an expert on metals and trading them. He is one of the good guys just like Trader Dan. They are just experts in different areas (US vs London/Global), although there is some overlap. I'm an avid fan of this site and it is something I read every day as I find his information and opinions invaluable in addition to learning a lot from him. As far as von Greyerz, I don't follow him, but from of the few things I have read from him, he seems to be knowledgeable. Dan, Egon, and Andrew are regulars on KWN which says something as well as Eric King doesn't have "clowns" on his site. I just thought I'd mention the article in case Dan wanted to see a different perspective on gold lease rates since his perspective is from the Comex point of view where as Andrew's is from the LBMA's point of view which better represents physical demand. Comex is almost all paper, hardly any deliveries. As a side note, Maguire is a regular on Turd's site as well and many use his trading services at Coghlan Capital.
ReplyDeleteNone of the so called "experts" on King World News predicted the bear market in gold after it topped in 2011.
DeleteNone of them predicted a crash in the XAU which has already exceeded the 2009 stock market crash in duration, with many juniors down 70% - 85%.
To me, that is inexcuseable.
And as far as GOTS, anyone who stayed in the system and and remained fully invested in the consumer "glam" stocks like Lululemon, Starbucks, Limited Brands, Whole Foods, Ulta Salons, etc. got rich beyond belief. The Fed is not going to "bail in" investors in consumer discretionary names, that is why it is hands down the safest sector right now.
Might as well mosey back over to Zero Hedge and read 10 more gloom and doom predictions, LOL!!!
I doubt the FED is going to bail in any stockholders.
DeleteSeems they are targeting the folks who hold "large" amounts of cash over the FDIC insured amount on (multiple) savings accounts at negative interest rates because they apparently dont know what better to do with it. Cant consume it all and dont want to invest - just hoard the cash really.
These folks are so use to risk free return since 1980 that they clearly dont see they are now getting return free risk. Its carmic justice in a way. JMO.
tuesday : it's been 3 days that the median of the Andrew's fork (red line) has successfully capped gold's prices. As long as 1340 are not breached (and then 1348), there is an increasing probability that prices may stall once more and start collapsing again. Nothing new since yesterday : daily support going up to be watched around 1300 $. Must hold.
ReplyDeleteI'll Watch the MACD 9 20 7 (I use smaller parameters than usual 12 26 9) as they seem to make it an earlier indicator without hurting the success rate)which could start reverting, and also the gold/silver ratio which, unfortunately, keeps going higher, flirting with 68 yesterday.
Conclusion : extra careful as a bull as long as 1350 is not conquerred at the close. Watching if 1300 $ will hold.
Silver.
DeleteRed resistance still holding, though we are also in a very short term uptrend channel (blue).
Let's see if one of the channel is still valid in a few days.
http://s17.postimg.org/ci091m44f/slv.jpg
Nothing will happen until the "Great Ben" speaks. When the Great Ben speaks usually it is an all out assault on the alternative currencies, or, if you will, Sound money. So, we will see but it must really be hard to be a liar, thief, and head meistro in chief these days. A thief and a liar will end up in eternal hell, as will all of these bankers. We just need to keep track of them nowadays in order to go get them and return them to justice when the world wakes up and everyone is bankrupt.
ReplyDeleteWhite Wolf you are right about Ben, but the real truth of the matter is that he and Obama are nothing more than figureheads, mouthpieces or puppets for the real power behind the scenes, if you will. The mkts have been broken now for years and we just have to deal with them. When a country pays what we do for entertainment, you know that you are looking at an empire in decline. Oh yeah, and Baseball is not a business, it is a sport, so thank you anti trust laws. Shucks, in 1965 I used to sit in the right field bleachers at Candlestick for .75 and catch fly balls off McCovey's bat in BP. Take care everyone and let us see what kind of lies they try feeding us tomorrow regarding fomc; that is all, steve in sparks
ReplyDeleteSteve,
ReplyDeletePainful as it is you are very correct and all the "players" are doing their best to rally us into the stock market for the Wealth Effect. Revenues are down and margins up which means unemployment will continue down. GDP will get its $500 Billion dollar adder for R&D as no statistic will be left unchanged in order to keep the façade going as long as possible. I was an Oriole fan in the days of the 4 20 win pitchers (McNally, Quellar, Palmer, and Dobson?) Brooks on third, Frank, Boog, Belanger, Etchabarren, Blair, Rettenmund, Johnson. Those were the days of old. Now we have Big Poppy ready to hatchet his teammates and egos larger than life everywhere. I also saw Johnny U at his best. Nice to reminisce about the good ole days when markets were real and the US was the place to be.
ok so this week is ful of unpredictable news, and i dont know about yall but i found it well hard to trade today (tuesday)...gold just going up and down, almost sporadically, especially with the news half way through..the chart for today looks like madness...i still feel like the bulls are more in control, i guess im still used to the last few months where its just a rampage of red selling and now recently the blue buying candle sticks are pretty strong...anyway, after today, i dont know how to trade tomorrow..i may just place a fill to buy the mining shares (NUGT) a little bit above where gold is range trading to catch a buy bid if theres a mental pop in gold...anyone else fancy letting us know how they plan on trading tomorrow?
ReplyDeleteWhite Wolf; Did you know that in the 50's Curt Flood could not even start at McClymonds and had to transfer to Oakland Tech? Vada, Frank, and I forget the other outfielder. Today's players should drop to their knees every night and thank Flood, Messersmith and Marvin Miller for their outrageous and undeserved salaries. So Dan, I know you do not comment on the red metal, but I know you know that on the wkly chart it is now 22 months between $3-4 and looking like it wants to penetrate to the downside imho; that is all from sparks, steve
ReplyDeleteSteve - see the post I put up today about Copper....
DeleteDan
I remember well Vida Blue, the hard throwing left hander from the Oakland A's. I thought Curt Flood played for St. Louis?? Reggie played for them, you cannot forget that Reggie Jackson cut. Always for the fences. Struck out as much as he hit the ball, but when he did...
ReplyDeleteDid you know that Johnnie U was bankrupt and almost penniless when he finally died. Really really sad story. They still have those high top cleats breaking the huddle on the Vision board at Ravens games. His hands were larger than life. I saw Boog last year hanging out in the bar (a bit wobbly, but friendly and my hand just disappeared in his. Wow what a load he was.
Hey Steve, where can one get a hunting license out in Co. to shoot down drones. I heard about that and thought it very interesting. Need to hone in an AR. LOL
not Vida, Vada Pinson; Curt signed with Cincy by George Powles who signed everyone for the Reds that was any good in Oakland; Curt then went to Cards and then fought baseball when traded with McCarver to Philly for Richie Allen and others; another one that went broke and was panhandling downtown Vegas was Jimmy the Greek, who used to get his lunch money stolen by Dean Martin back in Steubenville, Oh; that is all, steve in sparks and Dan, what about the copper?
Deletewednesday : median of fork is at 1335, and support at 1308 (upwards channel). No idea what will happen, as gold also refuses to break down. So maybe at last an upward outcome?
ReplyDeletebackwardation : imo it's a bit weird to write that Dan is mixing oranges and apples. By now he would be selling milkshakes on the beach if it was the case. I like the reminder of Mc Guire that Comex is not the only place in the world for gold exchange, and that the LBMA is a very important place for physical exchanges. But futures prices are defined via the Comex. Plus I don't like an article where you first of all have a link towards a subscription service letter with a huge fee, and which soulds a bit like "sorry guys, everybody else is mixing apples and bananas, so if you want a chance to understand the truth, you'll have to pay" :)
I'm happy with Dan's explanations, an even if I were not, at the end of the day, prices are all that matter.
One thing for sure : in this environment, even if I'm trading gold via CFDs at a low level, most of my position is now physical, and aims at reducing the counterparty risk.
Mark, you wrote "And as far as GOTS, anyone who stayed in the system and and remained fully invested in the consumer "glam" stocks like Lululemon, Starbucks, Limited Brands, Whole Foods, Ulta Salons, etc. got rich beyond belief".
It can be your choice to prefer return on capital instead of return OF capital.
Given the current environment, I'd advocate for securing some of one's capital into physical gold, regardless its price. In this sense, not for speculative reasons, Sinclair is totally right imho to warn about possible systemic risks and the importance of return OF capital. Doesn't mean you have to be 100% physical gold. But at least partially GOTS, yes, I did it, my phyz doesn't bring me as much as my trading account lately, but I'm glad I did it.
Hey Dan.
ReplyDeleteYou upgraded your picture. I would say you are looking like a lady killer still! Can you update us on the ADX chart again? Have a great day Danno.
White Wolf - I will get one of those up later today after we get the FOMC statement and have some time to see how the gold market reacts to that.
DeleteThanks for the complement although Time and these crazy insane markets have been plowing furrows on my face!
cool picture. Nice to see a real face behind the posts :)
DeleteYou don't look so bad after 25 years of trading :)
Well..they fixed the US on a spreadsheet.
ReplyDeleteSee http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-new-gdp-methodology-what-you-need-to-know-2013-07-31
We have no more problems with a flip of a switch the powers that be just repaired the whole mess. Wow, those guys are really smart. LOLOLOL
Their you have it. USA fixed, but 10 yr yields jumped. 2.68 today..was at 2.69. Looks like the Mortgage market will be destroyed soon. Gold stocks are hanging on. Gold was kicked again, and will after the FOMC announcement. It is getting interesting now, as no matter what they throw at it, it will not succeed until an eventual devaluation of the dollar. Phoney baloney numbers will eventually destroy the FED. I hope Ben's place in history goes to an all time LEAD Baloon. Sorry but I hate outright government manipulation.
ReplyDeleteyeah so this translates to the US on recovery, the market goes up, but so does the 10 year yields : cos they expect taper now right? sooo, todays main question is what to expect from the FOMC with regads to gold...cos if it sends gold down anymore, itll break below that 1308/1312 area and probably go test 1300 and maybe even fall below that..that what i dno, maybe 1285/95....but if fomc is favourable; could send gold to 1340 area with only friday jobs capable of sending it above 1350 to 1370 ish area...im kinda talking to myself here but basically, which way will fomc send gold, and to what level?!
ReplyDeletePrecious Wood..
ReplyDeleteSeems so ridiculous that the whole world hangs on the words of CB's. Who knows, I cut my exposure to Gold Miners last nite at the last second...whew..
I am thinking they want to attempt another raid. I just hope the mantra moves on the COMEX to take delivery. In time the whole thing will move to the Shanghai Index. Russia right behind and JPM HSBC Brinks will die a slow death. That coupled with their mortgage machine refinances will kill em pretty hard. I am thinking that the short on Banks will soon be with us.
yeah i agree the longer this goes on, the bigger the inevitable doom and black swanS for Central banks...they keep trying to please everyone, but if they are going to keep the market in joy without stimulus, they have to deal with the impossssssible higher yields ... its like trying to keep a houseparty all happy when the booze/drugs is finished and everyones thinking of going home/sleep....the next morning is coming and eeeveryones gona have a headache....its the laws of economics, like maths and physics...so i agree, and im soo happy watching the miners drop with gold (looks like 1306/08 is going to give way to atleast 1300 here: big fight going on at the moment)...but im only happy gold is dropping cos im looking to re-enter...maybe this is just part of the last drop (not to 1180 level) before the summer is over and the autumn-winter bull market for gold recommences...but i dont really want the HUI/miners to end up not below that gap they tried so hard to clear...anyway, back to market watching...i just duno how to call this fed commment..i may just place an automatic fill above the range trading price to catch a bid if gold miners shoot up, otherwise im happy standing aside...
ReplyDelete