It is perhaps a bit premature to jump to conclusions but today's price action in the overall commodity sector seems to be signaling that a subtle shift is occuring in the minds of some investors in regards to the Fed and the upcoming end to QE2 at the end of next month.
Fed governor Bullard might have been the one who got the ball rolling by his comments from yesterday when he stated that there would more than likely be no monetary tightening until later next year. That put a firm bid under many commodity markets and kicked some of them strongly higher yesterday. It also seemed to pull the Dollar down somewhat from its best levels of the session even while it was supported by an aversion to the Euro based on the woes in Euroland.
Today we are seeing a sharp rise in the CCI (Continuous Commodity Index) which has taken it up past that key 640 level that I am closely monitoring. We are also seeing the Dollar unable to push higher. With money flows coming back into the commodity sector, it comes as no surprise that those markets which led the sector lower are now leading the sector higher. That is why silver is so strong this morning. Also, crude oil is trading closer to $101.
What might be happening is that investors are looking at the ugly chart pattern forming on the S&P and seeing this recent near-collapse in commodity prices and putting two and two together. What I mean by that is they are thinking that while the come-down in commodity prices, notably energy and some foods has been welcome, no one wants to see a collapse of the magnitude of 2008. It was not that long ago when I posted a comment here at my site and wondered whether a deflationary mindset was creeping back in. That word, "deflation", sends dread and fear running down the backs of Chairman Bernanke. Bernanke will not let such a mindset get firmly established.
With fears of a slowdown in growth for the emerging markets, and a concerns that recent US economic data has been weak, traders are beginning to suspect that the doves at the Fed are going to have their way and that some sort of stimulus is going to be forthcoming from the Fed. Keep in mind that the Fed views as part of its mandate, growth in employment. With this sort of data coming out and with the thinking in connected circles that the sharp fall in commodity prices has taken the wind out of the inflation genie for the short term, the Fed now has room to come up with some sort of stimulus, whether that be another round of QE or something else.
Again, one day does not a trend make but I do find it noteworthy to see the extent of the money flows coming back into the commodity sector today. That would not be occuring unless traders believed that the Fed was going to shift gears and perhaps become more accomodative. It could be that the consensus is that the Fed overshot it to the upside the first time around, then overshot it to the downside by sounding too hawkish of late and now may be trying to find a happy medium.
Either way, for today at least, watching copper moving up nearly 2.5%, enough traders think that something friendly is coming down the pike and is paving the way for "risk trades" to return.
I have a bit different take on today. I think the election yesterday of a democrat saying that medicare will not be cut is a very significant event. It means that the democrats are for defeceits as far as the eye can see and republicans are for fiscal responsibility with no tax increases. So it looks like the democrats are for bankruptcy of the US and the republicans will not want to pay for that so the only way out is for the printing of trillions of phony dollars to keep the system going. Maybe the markets sense that. Its just one small house race with unbelievable long term term implications. Nobody wants to cut anything and there is no way to pay for it. Just my take on it, which I am sure just fits in with everything you have been saying for years now.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the update.
ReplyDeletehi Dan,
ReplyDeleteI have a question. last week on kwn metals wrap you have said the swap dealers are only long and most of money managers have liquidated. Does that mean this rally in silver has to do with long by swap dealers. Swap dealers long silver and after doing that for few days when retails investor thinks the bottom is set then they take it to downside futher??
This would also help them create a chart pattern showing downward trend. What i mean is if the swap dealers and bullion banks take the price down in ten or fifteen days it might shoot backup easily. and on other side if you take it down little by little downside like first take it to 33 dollars from 45 dollars and then let it breath little bit and hold that level for a week or so and then take it another leg down and let it breath...
also the professional traders might also liqudate once it reaches 39-40 dollars and get back when is falls down.
Can you help me understand if my thinking is right or wrong.
rogue;
ReplyDeletewhat appears to be happening is that the managed money is returning to the long side of silver after running out of those positions like the world was ending. The bullion banks and swap dealers were using that selling to cover short positions, and in the case of the swap dealers, to get on the long side of the market.
I would expect to see the swap dealers moving back to the short side by now with this good sized rally from off of $33. I would also expect the bullion banks to have increased their short side exposure once again.
The key to silver will be whether or not the managed money (hedge funds) will remain buyers of the metal. If they do, they can easily take it to $40 for starters. If they do not, back down it will go again and re-enter the range trade.
hi Dan,
ReplyDeleteThanks for helping me understand and giving a detailed explanation.
Thanks a lot