TIPS Spread Echoes FOMC Minutes

I mentioned in an earlier post today that the FOMC essentially downplayed inflation fears in the minutes released today. That seemed to be one of the big factors involved in the sharp move lower in gold after it had spiked higher and moved back not only to the unchanged level but had tacked on some mediocre gains as well. That was all abruptly reversed after the market had some time to chew over the minutes.

Along that line, here is an updated chart of the TIPS spread comparing the price of gold to the movements in the spread. I want to point out that the most recent spread fell to more than a 3 year low this week! Clearly, the market has no concerns whatsoever about any budding inflationary fears. Such a thing is not good news for gold bulls.

When I look at this chart, I am struck by how closely the gold price has tracked this simple spread since September 2011. There were only two brief intervals when the spread went one way and the gold price went the other and that was Q4 2012 and briefly again in Q4 2013. It will be interesting to see if something changes in this current year as we are in Q4 and the two lines are tracking very closely to one another.


Gold is going to be especially dependent therefore on very strong offtake from India to keep it supported. I just do not see a fundamental driver right now that would entice Western-based investment demand to ramp up in a large way at the moment.

The metal is going to continue taking its cues from the Foreign Exchange markets therefore. Strong support has emerged at and below $1180 in the past week. That needs to continue or else bears are going to pounce once again with the FOMC minutes giving them some more confidence after the recent torrid rallies had dealt a big blow to it.

It seems to me that bulls have been pinning their hopes on the Swiss Gold Referendum Vote and a Dovish Vote. Scratch the latter after today's FOMC minute release. The former is still unclear.

Fed Downplays Inflation Worries

Going over these FOMC statements is akin to the ancient art of divining the future by the examination of animal entrails. I can see the conversation:

Demetrius: "I see what appears to be a twisted piece of gut. That is a sign from the gods that the future is twisted and unclear. Perhaps we should wait before going to war".

Apollos: " I see the same thing but tells me that our enemies will lie twisted and ruined on the ground. We should to war immediately".


Lydia: " I see a big fat worm. That tells me that this animal is so screwed up on the inside that we should not believe a single thing this entrail reading crap tells us".

The takeaway I get however has to do with inflation. We have been saying here for some time now, much to the chagrin of some of the gold perma bulls, that the market is not the least bit worried about inflation at the moment. That sentiment has been reflected in the flat to lower TIPS spread as well as the sinking commodity indices. Also, the concern of both the ECB and the Bank of Japan as been the LACK of INFLATION and what they like to euphemistically term, 'disinflation'.

Today our Fed said essentially the same thing if I am reading the entrails correctly.

Here is a short excerpt from the statement:

"... inflation edging lower in near term partly due to decline in oil prices..."

There are several other interesting things in the statement but that one seems to have caught the attention of investors/traders. Simply put - if the Fed is not worried about inflation than neither are we going to worry about is how the market seems to have reacted to things.

Another thing was the Fed's remarks on the recent "mid-October turbulence in financial markets". The Fed essentially glossed over that by stating that they saw the impact of those recent "world developments as likely quite limited".

Gold, which has been all over the place in today's session, seemed to finally digest the statement by heading lower. If there is no inflationary concerns and the Fed seems undeterred by any of the recent financial issues buffeting the global economy, traders viewed the statement as "hawkish" or perhaps a better way of saying it, "not dovish".

Like I said when I started this set of comments - deciphering these pronouncements from on high sure is an enormous waste of time but the fact is that the markets respond to them so one might as well at least try to get the flavor of the moment.

Gold has fallen to just above that key $1180 level a second time in today's session. Bulls are trying to hold it there but the mining shares falling out of bed have pretty much undercut any attempt to push it up and away from there at the moment. Maybe that will change before the session is out - give it 5 minutes!

Had Enough of Roller Coaster Rides Yet?

My kids love to ride those wickedly wild roller coasters, the kind that leave your stomach suspended in mid-air at the top of the track while the cart is already down at the bottom of the valley. Every now and then, against my better judgment, I will let them twist my arm enough to strap myself into one of those things just so that I can inflict on myself the same punishment that they seem to delight in inflicting on themselves.

There was one coaster we went to where they had a camera set up with a strobe light that snapped your picture as your cart went past it on a particularly treacherous portion of the ride. I recall looking through those when we finished the ride and were lingering around at the customer staging area to see what the expression on my face was out of sheer curiosity. Yep - it looked like I was the victim of one of those infamous native American Indians, the Apaches, torture of their white eye prisoners.

After watching the doings in gold and silver this AM, I could wear my kids somehow strapped me back into one of those infernal roller coasters!

Look at the Gold Volatility Index and tell me how anyone in their right mind can try to trade this stuff at the moment? I have heard of "day-traders". Hey, that is long term - try "15 second interval traders" for the new kids on the block!

As I have said just recently - if this keeps up much longer in the precious metals, look for margin requirement hikes very soon.... Small traders - I STRONGLY URGE you to be very, very careful in here. I do not care whether you are bullish or bearish. Betting the farm on a move either way is akin to hari-kari. Want to end any fledgling trading career you might have? Then go ahead and "Bet the Farm", or "Load the Truck" or whatever. Don't complain when they carry you out.

Let the volatility die down some if you want to trade large. By the way - ignore ALL NEWSLETTER WRITERS RIGHT NOW. Not a single one of them have the least clue as to which way this thing is going to go. Roll the dice and you have as much chance of getting it right.

Option guys - take notice once again!

"NO" Leading in Polls - Swiss Vote Referendum Derails Gold - UPDATED

I will get more on this later as time permits...

The polls seem to have shifted AGAINST the referendum. That has pulled the rug out from under the gold market which has been drawing support from recent polls showing "YES" had a slight lead.

I believe that once the public realizes that the SWB will be at a serious disadvantage in maintaining the Swiss Franc/Euro peg if the referendum passes, the mood will shift against it.

Quick note - gold has lost $1180 once again. That is a big deal. It needs to stay above that level to keep the bullish hopes alive.

UPDATE:

38% YES

47% NO


For those who are still unclear on this referendum - if it passes, the SWB will be required to hold 20% of its assets in Gold.

Japanese Yen Fall Delights Abe Government in Japan

It is no secret that the Japanese leaders have been wanting a weaker yen. All of their policies, both at the fiscal and monetary level, have been designed to weaken the currency as part of their efforts to pull the nation out of its decades long deflationary funk.

We can get into the various reasons for their woes but this is not the place nor the time for that now. What I do want to look at however is the success that they are having in driving their currency lower.

One look at this chart pretty much says it all. KERPLUNK!

I wish to point out something that occurred last December (2013). The yen broke down below the support level that had formed off the spike low made in May. It looked as if it was getting ready to put in another leg lower but that breach of important support turned out to be a head fake for the bears.

I remember trading it at that time. What was taking place was big swings between "RISK ON" and "RISK OFF" trades. During the risk off trades, the Yen would experience sharp rallies as the highly leverage carry trades would get rapidly unwound with traders covering short yen positions in a very large way. That would squeeze the currency higher. As the fears/concerns that led to the rally subsided, the short selling would begin anew and back down the currency would go. A new set of worries would then see a repeat of the rally and back and forth we went.

The takeaway from all that however was the fact that when we got that initial breach of downside support in December, we DID NOT get a secondary lower close to confirm that breach.

However, look at what happened in August and September of this year. In August the yen once again violated that support zone. This time around, the following month, the market confirmed the breakout by posting a sharply lower close ( the second close below the broken support zone). The rest, as they say, is history.

The Yen has essentially imploded lower as it does the bidding of its monetary masters in Japan who have greenlighted speculators to beat it senseless for them.

Having been on the wrong side of the Bank of Japan on more than one occasion in my currency trading career, I can tell you it is definitely not much fun. When one does find favor in their eyes, it is an entirely different matter.

I have noted some areas on the chart where the currency might be able to find some support. Notice there still seems to be a great deal of air below this market. Keep in mind that any sort of scare that surfaces to trouble investors, will see sharp countertrend rallies in the Yen as the carry trade gets temporarily unwound.

One other point to make about this - there are still gold perma bulls who send me one negative story after another ( or so they think) in regards to the US Dollar and its soon to be imminent demise ( in their mind). For some odd reason, they seem to forget that the Dollar derives any value it has on the crosses from trading  against other currencies. With the yen falling as hard as it has been, reading their breathless predictions about the upcoming Dollar crash seems a bit surreal to say the least. Apparently, they are not looking at this chart.

the last point - notice how the downside "head fake" that I noted on the chart was followed by a seven month or so period of price consolation prior to the next strong leg lower. Until we got that second close below the support level, the yen refused to break lower. In watching what has been happening with gold, it strikes me that we are perhaps seeing something similar.

The recent breach of support at $1180 looked pretty ominous as it was a triple bottom. However, the market has thus far refused to CONFIRM that downside breach by posting solid consecutive closes BELOW the level. It has spiked lower but has popped back up the last two weeks.

I wonder if we might be seeing something similar occurring in gold that we saw in the Yen? If we are, we will get the confirmation by a strong close below $1180 followed by more downside weakness on the weekly chart (( note that this is a weekly chart of gold and not a monthly like I used for the Yen)).

If not, gold should move higher and first take out that resistance zone noted the chart near $1240-$1260. We shall see shall we not?

Gold Taking Cues from Forex Market Movements

Take a look at the following chart comparing the price of the Euro ( in BLACK ) to the price of Gold ( in YELLOW).

During December of last year, and January of this year, the linkage broke down but beginning in February the two have moved in almost perfect lockstep with one another. The connection has been especially tight since this past summer.

The take away from this is rather simple at this point - Tell me what the Euro is going to do next and I will tell you with relative confidence what gold will do.

This morning there was news out of Germany that their ZEW index, a measure of economic confidence, rose in the month of November, the first time it has done so in a year. That produced a big impact in the Euro which completely erased its losses from yesterday ( do you ever get the feeling we are trading yo-yo's and not real markets?) and then added some for good measure. Back down went the Dollar and what do you think gold did? Yep - it moved higher.

The point in all this is that gold is completely at the mercy of developments occurring in the Foreign exchange markets at the moment. There is still widespread weakness across the commodity sector with crude and the grains move lower today.

I should also note that it looks to me like there is a line of thinking that continues to be seen out there which is regarding the sharp selloff in the crude oil and liquid energy markets as STIMULATIVE IN NATURE for the global economy. It is not the majority view but it is out there nonetheless.

Thus far the sell off in crude has fed into the deflationary/slowing global growth scenario. This scenario is NOT BULLISH FOR GOLD OR SILVER. I cannot say this strongly enough.

I have said it before and will say it again and again - my inbox is filled with articles from gold and silver perma bulls constantly finding fault with the US economic performance as they focus on this negative aspect of a set of economic data or that negative aspect. I have yet to find ONE article sent by any of them noting anything positive about the global economy, anywhere. It is all uniformly negative. Yet, they turn around in the very same breath and announce how bullish this is for gold and silver prices? Excuse me - but what in the world do they think has been has happening to gold and silver prices over the last three years, and in particular, the last two years?

SLOW GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH IS NOT BULLISH FOR PRECIOUS METALS PRICES. It is that simple. They need growth, lots of it. The kind of growth which sends the Velocity of Money rising and kicks up inflation worries. That has not been present and as a result, metals prices have been sinking lower. It has nothing to do with some supposed manipulation of the prices of the metals by bullion banks acting as agents of the Fed and everything to do with deflationary fears and a strong US Dollar.

Today we got a bit of a glimpse what might happen to metals prices if the Central Bank efforts to produce an inflation rate of 2% might actually be successful. Notice the very sharp response in the Euro to that improved economic confidence reading!

I would suggest to gold and silver perma bulls that they stop dissing US economic data and actually start rooting for solid growth prospects, not just here, but globally if they wish to see their metals run higher for more than a short period of time.

Just a head's up - along that line, we are going to get some fundamental type news this week.

Gold managed to briefly change the handle from "11" to "12" but it has not lasted very long. Mining shares are still strong at this hour however, so the bull's prospects are improving. They will however have to face the FOMC minutes and see whether or not they can weather any potential impact from those.

The HUI chart looks quite strong at the moment, exactly what one wants to see if they want gold prices to move higher. Notice that the index has closed another downside gap and is actually trading above that gap at the moment. That is very bullish price action!

The index is essentially attempting to work its way back to the downside breakout point made in early October. I have noted that area as "BIG TEST". If this is something more than a bounce in the ongoing bearish trend, albeit a very strong bounce, the index will have to push past this zone and CLOSE ABOVE IT.

If it were able to do this, gold should easily regain a "12" handle and one can say that a more lasting bottom is in this market. If it fails to do that, and retreats lower back down below that gap, that will signal a period of sideways movement in price or what we refer to as consolidation. Stay tuned.

By the way, those of you who want to do so, might wish a Happy Birthday to GLD. It was exactly TEN YEARS ago that it opened up and began trading. There was a note on the wire services that in its first three days of trading, it took in more than $1 billion!

GLD Holdings Vs. Gold Price

At the request of one of the regular posters here, I have constructed a chart comparing the reported holdings of the large gold ETF, GLD, to the price of gold over at the Comex.

As the frequent readers know by now, I view GLD as a proxy for Western-based investment demand for the metal, similar to the manner in which the World Gold Council views it as they just related in their most recent report published this past week.

Notice the symmetry between the two lines on the graph. Both tend to rise and fall together. By the way, when the data is graphed on a logarithmic style plot, the relationship is even more similar.

Weekly View of Gold

Here is a quick look at the intermediate term chart of gold.

There are several things that stand out to me as I survey this chart.

Let's start with the various phases. I have delineated these with the variously colored shaded rectangles for your convenience.

I think the chart speaks for itself.

The peak above $1900 in September 2011, was the climax of the then bull market. Subsequent to that, the market entered what can now be clearly seen as a transition phase. However at that time, we as technicians were unclear as to whether the great bull was finished or was merely taking a rest, gathering itself for another rampage higher.

This transition phase, or consolidation, occurred over a period of 15 months in which the price was essentially range bound. The top of the range that formed was $1800 and the bottom was $1530-$1525.

There is something interesting about this range which we can see clearly in retrospect. The $1800 ceiling was a triple top just as the $1530-$1525 level was a triple bottom. The old trading adage that "triple tops or triple bottoms rarely hold" turned out to be true, but not for the upside. The reason for that is because the US Dollar bottomed out near 79 (USDX) that very same month ( October 2012). As it rallied, any hope for gold taking out $1800 was dead.

In April 2013, gold officially entered its current bear market with a clean break to the downside of that broad range trade defined during the Transition Phase. We remain in that bear as of this weekend.

Please note that gold throughout the bear that has unfolded, gold was demonstrated all the classic signs commensurate with bear markets, namely a series of LOWER highs, with the exception of a horizontal support zone that had formed near $1180.

Unlike the previous trading range where the highs were at the same level ($1800) and the lows at the same level, ( $1530-$1525), the current state has shown us that very good buying has been present down at the $1180 level. So much so that once again, another Triple bottom had formed there.

The market clearly violated that level three weeks ago but has since then not seen much in the way of additional downside follow through. That is evidencing a reluctance to extend the break lower at this time. Normally, when one sees a clean break either ABOVE or BELOW a broad consolidation range, in order to validate it, good technicians like to see three things: First - a move OUTSIDE THE RANGE of 2% or more; Secondly, - strong follow through, and Thirdly - SUCCESSIVE strong downside closes.

In the case of the first requirement, a 2% move below $1180 means price would need to drop another $24 to confirm the breakout. That it did with the market easily falling past $1156.

On the second point - we also got the strong downside follow through the previous week with the price moving as low as $1130. That is a 4% move below the $1180 level.

However, and this to me seems to be the key ingredient that it thus far missing - the all important WEEKLY CLOSES have yet to confirm a 2% move down. In other words, from the perspective of a technician looking to confirm the downside breakout of the triple bottom at $1180, gold would need to sustain a WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW $1156 to confirm a new leg lower.

As you can see from the chart, it clearly has not done that. The week immediately following the downside support breach put in a close at $1169.80. That was well above the 2% threshold. This Friday's close was actually ABOVE the $1180 level, coming in at $1185.60. Thus, as of now, we have not gotten CONFIRMATION that the downside breach of $1180 is valid as far as setting up another leg lower.

By the way, can I just make a quick comment here - any of those pestilential gold newsletter writers who are always bullish gold no matter what, and who state that gold is in a bull market, are not worth being paid a  single dime. Any supposed 'technician' who cannot get something this evident correct is rather frightening in their ignorance. Gold has been a bear for almost 20 months how. Save your money and spend it on something more productive than keeping such misleading writers in  the business of producing such nonsense.

Now that we have covered this, let's come back to something I stated a while back in a previous post. Throughout the entirety of this bear market, there has been countertrend rallies, which have provided opportunities for those traders who are very short term oriented to profit from by playing from the long side of the market. The caveat I added was that they need to be very quick on the drawn however as the rallies have all tended to end with rather sharp downside moves meaning that most of the profits from such trades can be lost unless a trader has been nimble and fleet of foot.

Take a look at this chart in its entirety and note the BLUE ARROWS. I placed them below what we technicians refer to as "Spike Bottoms". Notice also that in ALL THREE PHASES of the gold market, BULLISH, TRANSITION, and BEARISH, these spike bottoms are present. What does this tell us? Simple - gold has a tendency to put in spike bottoms when it reverses direction.

Traders who understand this particular "quirk" of gold's personality can take advantage of that. These are signs that the market has been sold out temporarily. Notice that after each and every one of these blue arrows, the price has rallied. During the current bearish phase, it has provided traders with both the opportunity to make a long side bet as well as eventually finding a higher level from which to reenter on the short side. Remember, the trend is down until proven otherwise but one can always place short term trades while positioning also in the direction of the prevailing trend at key technically significant levels.

Please note that I have also drawn in a RESISTANCE ZONE on this chart which bulls might possibly be able to reach if this Friday's rally turns out to be more than another of those one day wonders. It comes in near $1240 on the chart and is shown by the blue rectangle. That level served to hold the market back in May of this year when it fell to that point and then rallied $100 up to $1340 before failing. However, it gave way most convincingly in September this year, was briefly violated in a short term countertrend rally but the price could not CLOSE above it. It should thus now serve as an upside cap on any subsequent move higher in price. If the market does manage to put in a WEEKLY CLOSE of any significance above $1240, it would decidedly change the complexion of the price chart. One would then have to give some real credence to a solid bottom being in for gold. Only time will tell us however whether or not this is the case. Anything prior to that is pure GUESSING.


Lastly, let me leave you with a LONG TERM MONTHLY chart of gold.

Clearly gold has lost long term trendline support on the monthly chart confirming the current bear. It is however finding some support in the confluence of the zone I have noted. The Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from the 2008 to the 2011 top is $1152. It fell through that level but was able to recover. That is a positive sign.

However it still remains BELOW both trend line and has yet to exceed the previous month high of $1255.60. To give some bullish credence to this otherwise dour looking chart, the metal would at a bare minimum need to exceed that point to get technicians a bit more upbeat on its prospects.

A MONTHLY CLOSE ABOVE $1340 would be necessary to give even more confidence that something more important is afoot.

As stated many times here, and which needs to be repeated - There seems to be a mistaken impression among many people that markets that are going down will bottom and then launch into a bull market with little or no warning. The reverse also seems to be another just-as-frequently mistaken view, that a market which has been going up, will stop going up, reverse and then enter a bear market.

In some cases, notably in the grains, this can be occasionally true due to unpredictable weather driven events. But more often than not, there are TRANSITION PHASES, as I have detailed above, that will occur. These are periods of sideways trade during which a market will move up and down, back and forth, for many months at a time, generally going nowhere outside of the range. Gold may very well be going back to a pattern like that. Or it may not; it could be forming a temporary respite from the selling before making a new leg lower. Or it could be ready to move past $1340 and start something more exciting.

The simple truth is that there is not a single human being on this planet who really knows. We all have our ideas and opinions, but that is exactly what they are, ideas and opinions. Until we get some sort of confirmation any dogmatically asserted opinions, no matter how often that they are repeated, are just people looking for attention as they make their guesses. Don't fall for that.

The market will tell us what it wants to do when it is good and ready to do so. Our business as traders is attempting to ferret out exactly what that voice might be saying.