"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


Saturday, November 15, 2014

GLD Holdings Vs. Gold Price

At the request of one of the regular posters here, I have constructed a chart comparing the reported holdings of the large gold ETF, GLD, to the price of gold over at the Comex.

As the frequent readers know by now, I view GLD as a proxy for Western-based investment demand for the metal, similar to the manner in which the World Gold Council views it as they just related in their most recent report published this past week.

Notice the symmetry between the two lines on the graph. Both tend to rise and fall together. By the way, when the data is graphed on a logarithmic style plot, the relationship is even more similar.


  1. Where the gold and miners prices is going in the next few months no one really knows, is the bottom in, maybe, but I would bring your attention to the following:

    Performance of £1000 invested over the last 5 years bottom performers UTs:

    MFM junior gold £232
    SF Webb Smaller Cos gold £284
    CF Ruffer Baker Street Gold £315

    The top performer was a biotech fund returning £3421

    Which would you invest in?

  2. Thanks for pumping out the info you've provided here for everyone. Appreciate it!

    Have a great rest of the weekend.

  3. Elliott Wave technicians are declaring a bottom:

    "Big intraday jumps in both gold and silver today suggest the selling pressure has been exhausted and prices are ready to rally further. We stated reasonable upside targets for [Gold] in Tuesday's Special Interim Report. Today's close at $1190.53 carries gold above the former support shelf created by prior lows over the past year-and-a-half. Often, when a support shelf is breached it then becomes resistance. So the fact that gold is able to punch back above this level is another piece of evidence to add to the case that we have made that a multi-month rally is unfolding. The recent $1131.85 low will remain intact.

    Time will tell of course

    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

    2. That does not sound anything like an Elliott Wave analysis. Gold is in the process of completing either intermediate wave 2 up or minor wave 2 up, within primary wave 5 down. That means there is an ABC upward correction within a primary downtrend. So 1131 marked an intermediate low but not the final low for this cycle. Another powerful move down to new lows will happen for wave 3 within P5. Then yet another new low later for wave 5 of P5.

  4. "shelf is breached it then becomes resistance. So the fact that gold is able to punch back above this level is another piece of evidence to add to the case that we have made that a multi-month rally is unfolding"

    unfortunately that logic could just as well have been applied to the breach of the previous "triple bottom" at 1180 , which if you adopt this logic should have presaged a "multi-month" collapse

    ... it isnt that straightforward

    1. R u related to the famous Ed Balls?


    2. As Dan said, I would not yet call $1180 fully broken on the downside. All we've witnessed thus far is a probe below $1180, but not a decisive move below it. When we get a weekly and monthly close that is at least 3% below $1180, then you can be confident that it has been broken. thus far that has not occurred. So, I consider this as part of the triple bottom that has not yet been broken.

    3. So, while I think the movement of gold is at least short term bullish - it could easily fool us all and make a real attempt at making the $1180 break below a decisive one by moving below $1150 and sating there for good. I think we'll know by mid way through December.

  5. Millions of hopers who bought gold over $1,250 like the Chinese and Russians now realize they made a mistake and will be selling into strength.

    That means huge selling resistance.

    And then there are the gold bugs who were stacking at the $1,650 area. That is going to be an even bigger area of resistance.

  6. I've never looked at the prices that way. fascinating more gld on the way up less on the way down. I wonder what the Swiss referendum means for all of this.

    Thanks Trader Dan!

  7. I mean in terms of the recent uptick in the price of gold

  8. The Swiss "referendum" is a complete joke. They will never pass it--anymore than they resisted the Swiss Franc's peg to the Euro, throwing their private acct holders under a bus, etc.

    1. The referendum is in the SNB's favor, they can print more francs. They will be mandated by the people to buy more gold (which means printing more francs) It's psychological judo, tug against the people lightly.

  9. @Rico

    its no joke - if you are a Goldbug messiah peddling Silver rounds or "insider information" newsletters, then this is mana from Heaven after a long and arduous period wandering around in the wilderness losing your religion.

    Its Win - Win: a yes vote leads to "price emancipation", a no vote is obviously rigged by TPTB who are "scared"

    This is exactly what Silverdoctors and KWN need to sustain them during the Dog Days of Q4, until the Chinese figures for 2014 are in, COMEX has collapsed, peoples memories have faded and a new crop of rabidly enthusiastic neophytes has started stacking

    Did you hear that Western vaults are empty and that GLD holds no actual Gold, by the way? Its because if the 500:1 leverage of paper promises and backwardation and its all a ponzi thing anyhow. I know these things are true because I read about it on the internet, and they used the word "secular" rather a lot

    1. LOL ... of course for rational folks -- it is pointless. First, it has ZERO chance of passing. The Cantons will NEVER ratify it because they receive a dividend from the central bank, and the referendum would eliminate this altogether. Second, even if it did pass, they would be implementing this buying of gold over a 5 year period -- which means you would never be able to see it in the price as it would be hidden in the noise.

    2. first you say it has zero chance of passing, then you say if it did...lol

      If it does pass, I expect you Eric and Rico to beat up a large mess of eggs and pour them all over your face.....deal?

    3. OK, KJM - so all your goldbug hopes ride on this vote or something? We'll see who ends up with egg, or worse, all over their face.

  10. Jesse has just shot himself squarely in the foot as a piece of classic (and totally unnoteworthy) Goldbug mythology about "leverage" and "paper promises" leads to a conclusion which runs entirely contrary to the intended message


    Park for one moment the nonsense about the supposed difference between Registered and Eligible inventory, the definitions of which are quite clearly set out in Chapter 7 of the NYMEX Rulebook. Also ignore, if you will, that Inventory tells us only about the LOCATION of metal and offers know information whatever to align its OWNERSHIP with the holders of Short futures positions. And focus instead on the headline, all Jesse says at face value:

    Potential Owners Per Ounce of Registered Comex Gold Back Over 50

    and then look at the chart he offers to "prove" this: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7QJwicFO-oo/VGfY9w5XKJI/AAAAAAAA7Dg/L5QKPcbwgq4/s1600/comexstockpileaurnoor04.php.png (last bar, black line)

    which shows that at the start of 2014 the supposed ratio was well over 100 : not only is 50 therefore no great shakes, but on the face of the evidence submitted, a high number certainly does not appear to support the price of Gold to any appreciable degree; in fact, on the basis of the first 3 years of the chart there is no correlation with price movement whatsoever, yet since mid-2013 violent movements up and down have BOTH been cited as evidence of COMEX's imminent collapse.

    To be frank, not only is the OI : Registered ratio misconceived, it is completely useless as an indicator of anything to do with Gold - which makes it the perfect all-weather weapon of last for any newsletter writer who has run out of ideas and is indifferent about editorial integrity or professional credibility

    Here are some hard stats:

    - Potential Supply of physical Gold: ~170,000 tons
    - Potential Owners of physical Gold: net zero, because all of it is already owned by somebody, and every purchase inevitably involves a sale

    - Ratio: complete and utter nonsense, useful solely as a stocking-filler for the Hard of Thinking

  11. I learn from veteran traders that in order to be successful in trading, never pay much attention to the news, rumors or someone else opinion. But Dan's point of view good.

  12. http://goldsilverworlds.com/price/a-change-underway-in-the-suppressed-gold-and-silver-down-trend/ This guy, along with the rest of us has his own

    fundamental ideas, which of course can be bought into or disagreed with, but in any case are all "in there" at this point. At the end of his rant is his technical thinking, which by and large goes along with Dan and the other bears here. Myself included. No trend change yet, but always watching. New bull mkts can indeed begin with short covering. Enjoy the rest of your weekend all.

  13. Truth is nobody has a bloody clue. If you read all the conflicting remarks from different analysts it's all a dog's breakfast, but without hesitation or remorse they will switch from their old stance to a new one if something changes, as if they saw it along. The main thing is to make the prediction 'authoritatively', with the voice of certitude, ascribing this to inferred special powers or esoteric knowledge. At least Dan modestly adopts a cautious approach, emphasizing that no one can read the future, and anything can happen, so he just works with trends.Trends may work short-term, until they don't, but not longer term because there are too many variables and unpredictables. How right that is! Maybe this, maybe that, maybe whatever, too many maybees out there. We poor humans cannot see much further than the end of our nose, but nature tricks us into thinking we can, so we take risks. If it wasn't for this nothing would ever get done, because we would always be too cautious to move, so it is with investing. As for gold, looking just past the end of our nose, which is stretching it, maybe gold is good for a rise till the end of the month, and if one is a gambler, some juicy profits could lie in the gold shares if you are faster than a striking cobra.

  14. There is no shortage of gold. There is plenty of physical product out there. Every coin dealer here in Southern California is stocked to the gills with every product imaginable.

    And I'm sure its no different for the custodian of GLD. All the gold is there. If it were not, then they would be out of business.

    1. Technically, there's never a shortage, right? There's always gold sitting in someone's safe (retail) or vault (central bank)-at a high enough price, there's always willing to sell. Not so different than the currency of Yap- the stone disk known as the Rai. The stones just sit in front of a chieftain's house to signify wealth.

      Of course did you realize that the Micronesian Rai Exchange (MRE) trades a paper equivalent1,000x the physical stone in existence each day? It would take just two chieftains to roll out their stones from the exchange to bring the entire system to its knees.

    2. Can you please email Mrs Merkel and tell her that she can pick up her 300 tons of gold that she is missing in Southern California. That would be awesome. Thanks.

  15. @Dykes

    the challenge is to spot the trend - and its end - soon enough

    one of us - I cant remember who - is trained as a signal engineer, which I understands involves tuning out noise from a signal. Of course, it helps if you can be sure that there is in fact a signal there in the first place, else you are in SETI-land, but one or two algorithmic methods have been applied to financial markets:

    1. Hurst Exponent based on (of all things) memory patterns in the flood history of the River Nile https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=hurst+coefficient+market&source=web&cd=3&ved=0CCYQFjAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Foptimaltrader.se%2Fhurst_exponent_and_financial_market_predictability.pdf&ei=urxoVMWFK_iNsQS4t4GADw&usg=AFQjCNHSau_13W_qhfurCA4HIhfdYSaeSg&sig2=puoeqHeGJmybCTyoVPBbRg&bvm=bv.79142246,d.cWc

    2. Bayesian Belief Networks based on non-Random Walk patterns. (If a coin is fair, then the chance of "Heads" is close to 50%. 2 Heads in sequence is still quite possible and doesnt mean that the coun is bent. 3 Heads in a row? 300? As the "trend" continues, the probability that the coin is bent / the market isnt performing a Random Walk increases) http://www.bwg.at/bwg/bwg_v4.nsf/sysPages/27workshopawg.html/$file/Schredelsecker.pptx

    a fascinating subject, and free spreadsheets are readily available to download

  16. from the first papet:

    In this paper, we analyze the Hurst exponent for all 1024-trading-day periods of the Dow-Jones index from Jan.2, 1930 to May 14, 2004. We find that the periods with large Hurst exponents can be predicted more accurately than those with H values close to random series. This suggests that stock markets are not totally random in all periods. Some periods have strong trend structure and this structure can be learnt by neural networks to benefit forecasting.

  17. Thanks Dan for your great posts! Is there a seasonality chart of gold that would help explain this rally and are there certain months gold tends to always go down? Just curious. Thanks again for all of your very informative posts!

    1. Some thing I found to explain the move of gold. Commercials bullish, Optix bullish , GVZ top and gold in a breakout mode which can cut both way up and down. GVZ reaches 52- week high


    2. http://www.cboe.com/micro/gvz/introduction.aspx

  18. This comment has been removed by the author.

    1. This should provide hours of fun for the forum

  19. all right sunday pre-opening research time is now!

    the most interesting item is the stock mkt. usually a month makes a high around non farm friday, then corrects the 2nd week 'weird wollie weds' and 'misdirection thurs' then the boyz will ramp op-ex week to make their net long in calls golden. ...well this month didn't follow the patter, so have the boyz got puts this time is the question!

    SPY makes it 21 days above 5-dma. On Monday it can set a new record.

    4th ISEE print >200 in 11 sessions. the various put call ratios show irrational exuberance on long side.

    Putin plans to leave G20 early after getting an earful.... old traders axiom:
    cornering the bear is a dangerous move.

    all right gettn systems up..let's see whats a happening!

  20. Well, it seems like Putin's G20 closing commuique was not a sabre-rattling moment at all and in fact seems to be laced with some tepid optimism that everyone understands each other a bit better regarding Ukraine. Time will tell.

    I guess the aggressive bombast I thought possible from him upon his leaving Brisbane wasn't necessary in the end when the posturing of 4 Russian warships off the coast of Australia before he arrived was his opening "statement".
    Actions always speak louder than words.

    Imho...the West/NATO made a mistake by squeezing Russia in Ukraine and they should come to an understanding with Russia over the rest of Ukraine while they still can.
    Crimea is gone, it's Russia's for the foreseeable future.

    Syria for Crimea sounds about right and seeing as how it appears that Russia is allowing the US to operate there it seems like Assad's days are numbered.


    Transcript of Putin's press conference before leaving the G20 in Brisbane...

    PRESIDENT OF RUSSIA VLADIMIR PUTIN: Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen.

    Let me start with a few words about the results of our work. First of all, I want to...(cont.)


    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

    2. Russian gold hedging ending up in Russia's central bank?
      If true, it seems like a good set-up for them.
      Will Russia at some point announce a nationalization of Russia's gold mining sector?
      What effect would it have on yearly global supply?
      Would that move towards nationalization be a game changer of sorts that greatly effects the price of gold while also strengthening the RUB as a consequence?

      Sure, those are all hypotheticals but it seems like a Russian nationalization of gold (just like China does) is something they might implement at some point.
      "Gold Wars: Putin’s Mining Buddies Are Stepping Up The Plate"


    3. DPH - An interesting twist on this is that Kinross gold - whose existence basically depends on its low cost Kupol mine in the Russian Far East has outpaced the rest of the miners since the recent low: up 35.5% vs. HUI's 15%. One of the reasons oft cited for KGC's poor(er) performance vs.the motley crew of miners was fear of nationalization in Russia.

    4. Interesting indeed. They'd be right to consider that prospect re: nationalization. I think it's possible if not probable at some point within 5 years.

      If Russia were to nationalize it would cause everyone to reconsider those other miners in countries that might consider doing the same...like Brazil.
      If you believe that the BRICS group wants it's own IMF or SWIFT-like banking structure like those countries have stated then whatever China or Russia does will influence the others in turn.

      I realize that's a lot of conjecture but it would seem to make sense when the BRIC aspirations are taken into account.
      Do the BRICS (aka China, lets face it)also want their own BIS-like CCB...Central central bank...and would they not want loads of gold like the BIS seems to possess or control?

      Just putting it out there. But it could be a decade or longer away for that matter.

  21. Gold prices rallied on Friday as more than 10,000 contracts for comex GC December delivery were traded, pushing the gold price up 1.5 percent within six minutes. like Dan says, funds yank it up funds yank it down.

    The World Gold Council announced that gold demand fell to the lowest level in almost five years in the third quarter as bar, coin and jewelry purchases slowed.

    India, the world’s biggest gold user after China, announced it will review bullion import rules after purchases in October jumped to the highest level this fiscal year. Though no indication has been given, any import restrictions could be a headwind for gold prices.

    October. The failure to maintain gains above the October closing low of 1191 hints to the potential for near term resistance, beyond which we look to the 21
    day MA (1195) and 1200 round number.

    gold/silver ratio made a 7 session low.. silver has the most packed in shorts for sure in the metals.

    1. The latest from Baruch's shoeshine boys: Unprompted, a woman sitting next at to me at the bank said she was going to wait to buy gold because, "It's going to go down one more time." You heard it here first.

  22. Dan's most slnt chart on the nasdaq COMPX earlier in the weekend shows the divergences that have been ever since the SPX INDU RUT began making all time highs, that being that COMPX and NDX have not made any all time highs since the turn of the century.
    ..the RUT is also in divergence with the SPX INDU as no all time high since july.

    (farley) The Russell-2000 closed lower for the 2nd day in a row on Friday, triggering a daily Stochastics rollover at 78.6% harmonic resistance.

    remember that every one penny decline in gasoline prices lifts US household cash flow by $1 billion. china uses more crude oil than we do, so probably $2 bill per penny over there.

    dr copper did better than gold or silver going right thru it's 20-day MA and lookn toward the 50-day. right on the 20-day to close the week were XLE TLT GLD SLV and GLD-SLV(gold silver ratio).

  23. chi-wawa typos and the mkt isn't even open.. Dan's most XLNT adventure charts of course!

    world running out of chocolate..of course anybody in china-india just getting out of poverty wants chocolate:

    cocoa may have had a stop run last 3 sessions under the ebola low from late spring... nice lookn 'train tracks' or 'kings n queens' pattern last 2 sessions.. so how about a stop buy at 2877! stop for long under the ebola low. alot of people do stop and reverse as well, and to get these lows or highs may take 4 stop outs or whatever it takes. the gains make up for all the stop outs once the trade idea really works.

    Ags wheat and corn look like shorts as soon as the momo runs out, jan beans now under the 100-day MA and looking at the 20-day MA...must be alot of stops for longs under the 20-day.


  24. It'll be interesting to see if gold/silver give back most of their gains made on friday.

    I think last weekend saw the PM's slide downwards through the asian markets and then in London/NY and give back most that previous friday's gains as well over the first couple days of last week.

    We shall soon find out after all three markets play out. Oil creeping up to $78+ might help keep gold buoyant this time around.
    Lets see what the JPY has in mind.

  25. BitStamp seems to lead gold tick for tick. Remember BitStamp trades 24/7.

    Looks like a pullback in gold is coming which will knock off all the traders that jumped in long way too early.


  26. By the way, Germany probably changed its mind about wanting its gold back.

    Now they are only interested in U.S. blue chip stocks.

    Central banks are now jumping on the equity bandwagon in a big way, and are no longer interested in hard assets.

    They are happy with what they have now with gold, but they won't be buying any more. They will be buying big cap stocks.

    Just go look at charts of WMT, TRV, V, NKE, etc. all making world record lifetime highs because the Central Banks are tripping over each other to buy these names. Including the Bundesbank and all the major commercial banks and investment banks in Europe.

    European and Japanese institutional investors have made a fortune in U.S. stocks lately, no reason for them to change that up.

    1. Western Central banks are last into a trend because they're massive institutions driven by consensus. So when they start to buy or sell something, it probably signals the end of a big long move.

  27. Japan's economy unexpectedly shrank for the second consecutive quarter

    Gross domestic product (GDP) fell at annualised 1.6% from July to September, compared to forecasts of a 2.1% rise.

  28. Looks like some Asian buying this evening.

  29. Uncle Abe will simply crank up QE even more.

    Stand back, Nikkei will probably surge back up as a result.

  30. So I see the JPY zipped quickly past 117 and promptly fell back to 116. That was quite the bounce.
    Gold opened lower as the yen popped but promptly recovered as the yen retreated while the DXY weakened a bit at the same time.
    Crude was snoozing last time I looked.

    1. Good article. This might help make things interesting.

      "Opinion: China Stock Connect opens up risky currency bet"

      By Craig Stephen
      Nov 16, 2014 9:20 p.m. ET

      HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Starting today, Hong Kong residents can get their wheelbarrows out and switch unlimited piles of their currency into yuan, thanks to the removal of the daily conversion limit of 20,000 Hong Kong dollars (about $2,600), all to help the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect get off smoothly.

      This might appear like a generous sweetener from Beijing, as holding yuan USDCNY, +0.25% USDCNH, -0.10% has been a profitable move, with a rise of roughly one-third in recent years against the Hong Kong dollar USDHKD, +0.01%

      But authorities are letting Hong Kong in on this trade at a delicate time: The U.S. Federal Reserve’s tapering actions have been creating ructions in global currency markets, and last month’s recommitment to quantitative easing by Japan has created further instability.

      Although Chinese President Xi Jinping reassured the APEC conference in Beijing last week that the risks facing China’s economy were not that scary, it already looks like foreign capital has taken fright.

      First, we had China’s foreign-reserve pile shrinking by $100 billion. Now, analysts warn of further signs foreign capital is heading for the exits...(cont.)


  31. But...but...weren't you telling everyone how they should continue to buy silver and gold at $1900 & $48 because there was a supply shortage 3 years ago also?
    Rhetoric like this has got to make more people start to wonder about the perma-pumpers that they're enamored by whose word they took like some kind of PM gospel.

    Here's the definition of an unapologetic barker...

    Sprott: "But by suppressing the price -- and one of the great things about a price of $1,100/oz is that you can buy a lot of gold at $1,100 versus $1,900 -- you can buy almost 50%-60% more gold than you could three years ago with the same amount of money. And you can buy 3x the silver. With the same amount of money!" (cont.)


    1. One of the smartest things I've ever heard, which was told to me by a wise old investor talking about newsletters, etc. was:

      "If I knew a sure thing, do you think I would tell you?"

  32. Replies
    1. DPH; Loren;

      I am sure that this is the reason Mr. Sprott has been selling so much of his own personal holdings - you see that demand is so good that it gives him someone to unload his unwanted crap onto.
      If this snake oil of a charlatan really believed his own bs, he would not be selling his own holdings. Would you? especially if you were out there with claims of $50 silver before the end of this year is out.

      The tragic is that people still lend him the least shred of credibility. He has none.

    2. Do you have a link to the amount that he is selling?

    3. Enjoy


  33. It is now surely high time to ditch the nonsense about absolute Supply & Demand as detetminants of the price trajectory of Precious Metals over any realistic investment horizon: Chinese purchases, production costs, COMEX inventories - all have proved to be poor indicators of sentiment, which appears to be the key driver behind both speculative trading and hoarding/dishoarding

    In this context even apparently "significant" events such as the various phases of QE, Ebola, ISIS, Ukraine, Cold Weather and Gaza appear to bave only a very oblique influence

    But we are not blind and helpless in the face of uncertainty: we have our wits and our experience to guide us, and in the immortal words of Mrs Zimmerman's little boy, "You don't need a Weatherman to know which way the wind blows"

    It is easy to lose perspective: 6 months ago you would have been laughed at for even suggesting Silver would be at $16, but now that level is taken as proof that "the bottom is in". Again.

    Look at the chart. Look at the price. Neither is perfect, but these are the least worst indicators we have of what aggregate market sentiment looks like. Sure, there will be blips. Sure, one day the trend will. change. However, it remains as important as ever to distinguish between what you see happening in front of you, and what you would like to see happening. Unless we can learrn to tame the twin demkns of Fear and Greed, we are, ourselves, potentially our own worst enemies and the most egregious manipulators of our own financial wellbeing

    Don't follow Leaders, watch your COT Reports" as nobody famously once said

  34. According to COT reports, small speculators net short extreme in gold so gold could rebound for a while

  35. soybeans opened with 'alternation' last nite, but have faded into the pause.

    Pivotal NOPA crush at 11 a.m. CST; Trade expects 150.8 mln bu of soybeans crushed in October.

    China buys another 4.1 million bushels of soybeans, although 1.9 million of it was switched from a previous purchase by unknown destination.

    Commercial net position in #soymeal of -141,963 contracts is 3rd largest on record going back to 1/2006.

    hmmm japan in recession... mahvelous monday let's rock!

  36. only green on de screen NG DX usd/jpy... vegetarian no meats!

    soybeans july-oct 50% at 1018.. 20-dma 1022

  37. recessions tend to spread and japan is big, so no wonder the gold-silver ratio has popped back up. silver has that little peak at 15.91 for early support, and gold resists joining with the 20-dsma and 50% fib is the downtrend channel resistance said to be 1188.40.

    let's see what the pit boys do with the ags as pit opens at bottom of hour.

    US(ZB) long bond futs again in the dumps.. range is 140-142 round numbers. stock mkts not gonna go down much unless ZB breaks above the 142.

  38. TF broke friday low first in a rut.
    AAPL market cap higher than the entire russian stock mkt.

    ok let's go money mkt bonds and stocks both red.

    NOPA #soybean crush 157.960M bu in Oct Biggest crush on record for Oct.

    talking damage in nebraska and kansas for wheat another artic nite tonite on deck, and crop progress after close today.

  39. 77, when are you going to get out of your aunt's basement and create your own blog and stop clogging up things here, Hoosier?

  40. If Sprott is selling Gold, shouldn't we be buying? He is such a scumbag...

  41. not necessarily Nate; he may have a lot more to dump as he becomes not even a millionaire at the bottom

  42. Sprott has 3,500,000 more units to dump.

  43. Sprott was right, then he was wrong, then he'll be right again, then wrong again. Not defending him in any way.
    Sounds like most traders who still have an account to work with.

    People bashing and girl fights are for the uninformed and the unenlightened, and 'Listen to all and follow none' is some good advice, regardless of the source.
    Strong dollar. Funny how stuff works out. I'd like to hear opinion regarding expected direction of other currencies

    Shout out to Rico. Hope you're well.

  44. (Reuters) Funds sell 4K wheat, 7K corn while buying 7K beans, 3Kmeal and 1K soy oil.
    in Ags December contracts option expiration is this Friday’s close, so corn wheat soymeal and soyoil.

    CME raises Natural Gas margins for both spec and hedge/member categories ...blurbs had natgas +7% today.

    gold has a fib right here at 1285 from the most xlnt range of 255-1923.


  45. ooops 100 away at 1285 the major fib.

    HUI very nice follow thru today, technicians are talking that the test of 2008 was on much lower volume this year, so bullish.

  46. could be the last crop progress report of the year today for soybeans.

    (WSJ) Gasoline and ethanol futures are trading near parity for the first time since April, and plummeting gasoline prices are threatening ethanol's ability to compete.

    Already, refiners are seeing less incentive to blend the biofuel --they blended ethanol into 92% of finished gasoline last week, down from 96% two weeks ago, according to EIA data.

    lotta inside days showing: FXE UUP USO JJC GLD SLV FXA FXB ZWz4

  47. strong hands vs weak hand and on and on via james turk a real clown; how do these donkeys go on and on ?

  48. This is rather funny. Now, some are saying that gold is fully capitulated. Or in other words, there is no one left to sell it....LOL

  49. back on-Topic

    just came across this article http://tsi-blog.com/?p=1135

  50. 1200 gold. Yay, time to unload some gold pesos.

    1. Oh no....not those big beautiful Big 50's! ;-)

      Do what you gotta' do. Capital is capital and college tuitions etc. require lots of it.
      I've got two kids I'm putting through college the last few years and it's a bit taxing to say the least. :-p
      Good luck EO.

    2. Yup, the Big 50's are gone. If you have any Russian 10 rubles laying around, Provident is paying melt plus 39% on those bad boys. Pleasant surprise there.

    3. Should I be embarrassed to admit that I still want to collect some smaller denomination gold coins from other countries? :-o

      There are some beautiful old coins out there and it's tempting but I'll refrain at this point or much longer.

  51. Bottom line meats: Beef cutouts advancing help trim negative packer margins, which is constructive for live cattle. Still, last week's record-high cash trade is sure to generate more talk about consumer resistance to paying record high prices.

    Dan must be too busy with these moo moos!

    of course there's a .577 fib of 255-1923 at 1217 gold.

    of course Dan might be too busy with these Ags... interesting that ZW ZC still red when most commodities are green, and this being turn around tuesday.


  52. A lot of excitement out on the interwebz for metals and miners right now. I myself commented here on Friday that the rally "feels different".

    But still, to go pimping stuff that hasn't even recovered to it's measly 50 day average is just flat out irresponsible. Get a grip, goldbugs.

  53. 1207.8 is the .618 fib of current 1130-1255 range for gold.

    turns out paulson didn't sell any GLD thru last qtr, fidelity sold a ton of gold stocks..13-f reports are out 45 days after end of qtr.

    new lows crude oil -.46%, new lows copper -1.4%: china data was the usual 'abysmal' i.e. into the abyss.

  54. Is it me ? Or is the gold bug narrative slowly changing from economic collapse to one of a global economic boom bullish for gold ?

    1. Loren;

      No Loren, it is not you. I have been telling these gloom and doomer gold bugs that they had best stop rooting for a lower stock market and start hoping for a big push higher in global economic growth, especially if they want higher silver prices.
      That leading propaganda gold bug site, Zero hedge, is replete with one article after another bemoaning how miserable the economy is and thinking that somehow that is bullish for gold. It just goes to how dense the proprietor of that site really is when it comes to understanding markets and cause and effect.
      If gold is going to rally, it needs a rising Velocity of Money. That WILL NOT happen in a lousy economy. A sinking CRB index or GSCI index is NOT bullish for gold or silver.

      Don't hold your breath however waiting for any retractions from the gold cult leaders or members. They are always right - just ask them and they will tell you!

    2. The narrative always seems to change when the current stale predictions never came to fruition.

      The people who've been waiting for a doom scenario to develop will probably be doing so for the rest of their lives.
      If the doom scenario hasn't played out yet it makes it more likely that'll happen with each passing year or decade etc.
      That seems to be the mindset out there among that group. Doom is only a matter of time. Sad stuff and probably not healthy overall for anyone immersed in it.

      I've pretty much given up caring about what that fringe element opines about or what they're predicting and why or when etc. It's totally irrelevant.
      At some point you just have to turn your eye's away from the chronic pessimism and absolutely crazy stuff out there. It's never ending.

      That's where I'm at.


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