“Woe to the land whose king is a child and whose leaders are already drunk in the morning. Happy the land whose king is a nobleman, and whose leaders work hard before they feast and drink, and then only to strengthen themselves for the tasks ahead”. (Eccl 10: 16-17)


"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


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Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Had Enough of Roller Coaster Rides Yet?

My kids love to ride those wickedly wild roller coasters, the kind that leave your stomach suspended in mid-air at the top of the track while the cart is already down at the bottom of the valley. Every now and then, against my better judgment, I will let them twist my arm enough to strap myself into one of those things just so that I can inflict on myself the same punishment that they seem to delight in inflicting on themselves.

There was one coaster we went to where they had a camera set up with a strobe light that snapped your picture as your cart went past it on a particularly treacherous portion of the ride. I recall looking through those when we finished the ride and were lingering around at the customer staging area to see what the expression on my face was out of sheer curiosity. Yep - it looked like I was the victim of one of those infamous native American Indians, the Apaches, torture of their white eye prisoners.

After watching the doings in gold and silver this AM, I could wear my kids somehow strapped me back into one of those infernal roller coasters!

Look at the Gold Volatility Index and tell me how anyone in their right mind can try to trade this stuff at the moment? I have heard of "day-traders". Hey, that is long term - try "15 second interval traders" for the new kids on the block!

As I have said just recently - if this keeps up much longer in the precious metals, look for margin requirement hikes very soon.... Small traders - I STRONGLY URGE you to be very, very careful in here. I do not care whether you are bullish or bearish. Betting the farm on a move either way is akin to hari-kari. Want to end any fledgling trading career you might have? Then go ahead and "Bet the Farm", or "Load the Truck" or whatever. Don't complain when they carry you out.

Let the volatility die down some if you want to trade large. By the way - ignore ALL NEWSLETTER WRITERS RIGHT NOW. Not a single one of them have the least clue as to which way this thing is going to go. Roll the dice and you have as much chance of getting it right.

Option guys - take notice once again!

23 comments:

  1. Full dsclosure...I'm a roller coaster 'wuss!

    But this current volatility is nice to see and it doesn't leave me feeling dizzy.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. OK, let’s turn the computers into people and see what we get;

      1. Let me read some news today; Holy Shit, they are not going to vote for the Swiss referendum;

      ************Sell button, Sell button, Sell button, Sell button, Sell button, Sell button

      2. The Swiss vote, doesn't really matter that much;

      ************Buy Button, Buy Button, Buy Button, Buy Button, Buy Button, Buy Button

      3. Let me read the FOMC meeting minutes;

      a. Page 2 says they are worried about inflation – rates might not rise anytime soon

      ************Buy Button, Buy Button, Buy Button, Buy Button, Buy Button, Buy Button

      b. Oh shit, I got that wrong – page 10 says that they will indeed raise rates in 2015, Ahhhhhh!

      ************Sell button, Sell button, Sell button, Sell button, Sell button, Sell button

      4. OK, good days work!

      Delete
  2. Dan, betting the farm may mean buying the farm! However, I feel very confident that gold is going to move up from here, especially after today's action. A modest investment, in, say, JNUG could yield good rewards. But don't hold on too long, because there are big profits to be made on the downside afterwards. That's what we do, we gamble to make profits when opportunities arise. Let's just hope the gamble is well calculated.

    ReplyDelete
  3. No joke Dan and that is why they call it Whipsaw Wednesday !

    ReplyDelete
  4. My guess is that the farcical Fed Minutes will come out soon, and there will be nothing in them as usual. Gold will then resume its march over $1200 taking the shares with it. In a day or two there will be more Indian import curbs and gold may vomit back some gains, but then resume its upward move. As I said, gold is in the move for love, and will not be denied at this time. Poor old gold has been jikted so many times it deserves a bit of a break.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Awwww, daddy, mummy said we could go out and play with NUGT and JNUG, just a little while. We promise to be good and not stay out too late.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Haha Peter well said. Not only has gold been knocked down it's been knocked out and people on here still want lower prices :). Give it a break!!

    ReplyDelete
  7. Thank for your concern, Dan. As a day trader, I have no worry at all about trading this time. For gold it was not strange this time. Look at price of gold on June -July 2012,you could see gold dropped 100$ then up 100$ easily for the same day.George Douglass Taylor 70 years ago called it a Buying Day when he could short early then long immediately, both ways make profits. This time the market by market makers who can manipulate intraday. When ADX between 17 to 32 and clearly gold stuck in an wide range, market makers very active

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Linh H Le: I am interested in talking gold strategy with you. Please contact yukondug@gmail.com.Hope i have not broken any blog rules. full respect to Dan.

      Delete
  8. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Another hurdle gold must cross is the Indian import curbs coming soon.

    ReplyDelete
  10. At this point I'm kind of looking forward to see how an eventual Fed rate hike is spun by those who insist it could never happen....like tapering off QE to zero wasn't possible.
    But here we are...and the markets haven't tanked because of it.

    Sure, any hike will be minimal and mostly symbolic but it'll be a hike nonetheless and it'll impact economies abroad negatively who have a high debt service denominated in USD.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Clearly some people have not yet received the memo on the swiss referendum

    ReplyDelete
  12. definitely Dan!

    it's flight to money mkts right now, gold, stocks and bonds all red.

    usd/jpy into the 118 round number test, gotta think that's good for USDX.

    Reuters Ag News ‏@ReutersAg
    Egypt's GASC seeks #wheat for Dec. 21-31 shipment

    lotta talk in the ags on the op-ex friday in meal,BO,C,W.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Gold will be up and down big for a couple of days to drive both sides of traders nut then proceed to reach the ceiling 1500$ once more time then whoops down fast to sub 1000.Before sideway at least 1 year for bottoming, gold needs to be up and down crazily like that. The message of Big Boy is about sensitivity of gold. Don't hope for making rich from gold market. Physical gold belongs to God and paper one to Big Boys. No place for retail traders here. I have some technique for trading gold but it requires a fast finger and base on cycles. Every 4 month gold will move big. This time is Dec

    ReplyDelete
  14. Replies
    1. Thank for compliment. Gold bugs even insane during 3 years

      Delete
  15. WOW, this has to be the most bizarre day I have ever seen. Has anyone seen a day like this before? Talk about computer algo trading! All I can imagine is that these computers are designed to mimic some Whack schizophrenic freak.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Eric, it is signaling that the volatility will only increase from here, going forward. Big moves coming but you gotta shake the Hoosiers out first. Simple.

      Delete
    2. OK, let’s turn the computers into people and see what we get;

      1. Let me read some news today; Holy Shit, they are not going to vote for the Swiss referendum;

      ************Sell button, Sell button, Sell button, Sell button, Sell button, Sell button

      2. The Swiss vote, doesn't really matter that much;

      ************Buy Button, Buy Button, Buy Button, Buy Button, Buy Button, Buy Button

      3. Let me read the FOMC meeting minutes;

      a. Page 2 says they are worried about inflation – rates might not rise anytime soon

      ************Buy Button, Buy Button, Buy Button, Buy Button, Buy Button, Buy Button

      b. Oh shit, I got that wrong – page 10 says that they will indeed raise rates in 2015, Ahhhhhh!

      ************Sell button, Sell button, Sell button, Sell button, Sell button, Sell button

      4. OK, good days work!

      Delete

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