"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


Wednesday, November 19, 2014

"NO" Leading in Polls - Swiss Vote Referendum Derails Gold - UPDATED

I will get more on this later as time permits...

The polls seem to have shifted AGAINST the referendum. That has pulled the rug out from under the gold market which has been drawing support from recent polls showing "YES" had a slight lead.

I believe that once the public realizes that the SWB will be at a serious disadvantage in maintaining the Swiss Franc/Euro peg if the referendum passes, the mood will shift against it.

Quick note - gold has lost $1180 once again. That is a big deal. It needs to stay above that level to keep the bullish hopes alive.


38% YES

47% NO

For those who are still unclear on this referendum - if it passes, the SWB will be required to hold 20% of its assets in Gold.


  1. Horrific bear market in gold continues unabated.

    Meanwhile consumer stocks like Lowe's, Target, and Wal-Mart are soaring.

    Never before has the consumer had it this good.

  2. Thanks for that update Dan.
    Just came in from shoveling and saw gold/silver knocked down and wondered what happened.
    I didn't see any corresponding FX turbulence.

    All the folks who've hung their hats for months on this Swiss referendum should prepare themselves to write about their "Swiss Miss".

    1. DPH, that Swiss Miss was just a come on tease, but gold is In The Mood For Love, and will not be denied the Last Dance.

    2. Lol....yeah, I guess we'll find out soon enough.

      That was an impressive snapback in gold. Someone should really look into that type of manipulation. :-o

  3. I'll be passing through switzerland this summer - maybe this means I won't have to stop just outside the border to load up on food and gas? As a frequent traveler in europe I can attest to the disincentive represented by an absurdly strong swiss franc, which for a small land-locked country has to be painful to the economy of the towns near the french/german/austrian/italian borders.

  4. Fresh new record highs in RTH, XLY. Wal-Mart running like QCOM did in 1999 - 2000. Central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and major pension funds are dumping gold en masse and piling into U.S.- based consumer stocks.

  5. Depending on what comes out of the Fed policy minutes later we might just get a double whammy today in gold.

    Gold not holding $1200 overnight two days in a row wasn't a good sign in the first place.

  6. Huge bounce for gold in very short time from down $20 to down $2. What does this say? Fed Minutes no real threat. Big bad bogie is Indian government curbs on gold importation. Sense is this will be weathered.That bounce was too violent. To me, this looks like gold will go through $1200 on to $1250, and then probably resume the plunge.

  7. GCz4 held the touch of the 50-period MA on the 4hr chart. luv that 50ma-4H :)

    If the ‘Save our Swiss gold’ referendum is passed on the 30th of November, the SNB has said it would be ‘unnecessary and unhelpful’ and would have a ‘direct impact on the SNB’s capacity to act'

    the SNB has been speculated to be making huge bids to support the swissie at 1.20.

    Dec Corn flirting with 100-Day MA: 362'4

    June 2015 #Hogs make a new lifetime of the contract HIGH!! #PorkParty!!

    japan wants to lead the currency 'race to debase' :)

    cheerio pipsters!

  8. Agree gold looks strong as mustard. Any attempts to push it down are like a cork in water right now.

    Needs to poke it's head above it's downtrend before the bulls can get excited though!

    1. Dominic, like a cork, gold has bounced up, and will slice through $1200 today. Beam me up Scotty.

    2. Yeah Peter. My feeling is actually we've seen the bottom now although that's all it is.... a feeling.

      I reckon the bull will continue next year. Even if I'm wrong, we are below the cost of producing both gold and silver. They may as well stop mining and just buy it on the comex!

      In all seriousness though some real bargains out there if you can find some miners with decent assets, cash pile and management that can weather lower prices if they do come.

      If I was a betting man I'd say potential 10% downside and several hundred percent potential upside.

  9. The Swiss government froze the account of yes donations. So it is illegal to donate to the yes side but the govt. can lie cheat and spew propaganda all they want. As the penalty's for manipulating the metals continues to grow, is it really that shocking the government will fix the vote? After what we have seen for the last 3 years I predicted months ago that this will never pass. The US will step in and make sure of that.

  10. Here we go...retest back down to $1180 and maybe a wee bit more.


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