FOMC Day

One word can sum up the press release by the FOMC today: " BORING".

It pretty much said the same thing as last month's statement with the exception that the Fed cut another $10 billion off the bond buying. That however seemed to be generally expected. In effect, the Fed has just repeated that it is on track to end the QE program this year but will continue to monitor the data like the rest of us. They seemed to put the blame on the slow growth in Q1 squarely on the back of the severely cold weather. We shall see what subsequent data yields. Along that line, this Friday's payrolls number will therefore be much more significant than today's statement.

One thing is sure - the DOW seemed to like what the Fed said today. Another new high! The S&P however is much more restrained however.

Early in the session Gold once again fell down towards the key $1280 level but as has been its pattern of late, it attracted enough buying to kick it off of the worst levels of the session. Traders remain conflicted between a rotten GDP number and a fairly strong ADP jobs number. As time came for the release of the FOMC statement, the price began moving higher and actually made it into positive territory. It would seem that some shorts got a bit nervous and thought that the Fed might back away from the tapering somewhat. They decided to cover and that took the price higher. Their concerns were unfounded however as once the statement hit the wires, the price moved lower again.

The situation in Ukraine is keeping some buying rolling into the market. I am of the firm belief that were it not for that geopolitical situation, gold would be trading closer to $1260 if not lower at this point.

Aiding gold somewhat is the fact that the US Dollar is weak. It is flirting with support near 79.30 ( USDX ). Below that is more important chart support near the 79 level. This morning's GDP number seemed to send Dollar bulls scurrying for the moment with the thinking being that the Fed will certainly be hesitant to announce any interest rate hikes. Higher interest rates will support the Dollar.

One of the problems that gold has at the moment is the continued moved lower in the Chinese Yuan or Renminbi. A weaker currency there, means gold becomes more expensive to buy. While it remains unclear to what extent this could impact the amount of gold purchased by China, it certainly does not help demand and right now, gold needs all the demand news it can fetch.

Why do I say that? Because that barometer of Western Investor gold demand, the big gold ETF, GLD, has reported holdings showing that the amount of gold held there has now fallen below the closing level of last year. In other words, the trend of Western investors moving away from gold has resumed after a brief interruption.

Here is the chart:

Note how holdings are barely above a 5 year low. Western money managers and large institutions are not interested in holding an asset that pays no dividend or throws off any sort of yield in the current environment. This is the reason that gold needs the sort of support from geopolitical events, such as what is occurring in Ukraine, to keep it propped up.


Along that line, it was reported today that home prices in China are not rising at the same pace as they have been previously. Average prices rose 9.1% in April but that was down from a 10.% rise in March and a 10.8% increase in February. First quarter home sales were down 7.7%.

Traders are watching any sort of news out of China that might suggest a weakening or perhaps more properly, a slowing of the rate of growth as that will have a big impact on many commodity prices.

From what I can see at this point, any rallies in gold are likely to be viewed as opportunities to sell. With the Fed effectively tightening down on the liquidity spigot, gold is losing one of its key supportive factors. The Fed is not tightening in a direct sense but they are certainly slowing down the flow of money creation. I would think that at some point this is going to benefit the Dollar. Today it certainly did not. Interest rates actually moved a tad lower with the yield on the Ten Year down to 2.653 as I type these comments. I am not sure what to make of that to be honest.

One thing that I am continuing to monitor with increasing interest is the move higher in the Euro. The last thing the Europeans want right now is a stronger Euro. Their monetary authorities are concerned about the lack of inflation and that is precisely what a strong currency is going to bring, not to mention crimping their export markets. The ECB has been making noises about bringing in its own version of QE if deflation pops its head up. That will be worth watching, especially if the Euro manages to clear 1.39 and treks higher.

Silver continues to attract selling at the $20 level and buying near the $19 level meaning its boring, range bound trading pattern continues. Copper continues its retreat from near the $3.10 level. Much of the recent gains can be attributed to hedge fund short covering in the red metal. It will be interesting to see if it maintain its footing above the $3.00 level. From what I can see of its price chart, the metal is not showing any significant pick up in global economic growth at this time. Just more of the same - slow, mediocre growth but nothing especially torrid. I would need to see copper prices at the very least above $3.20 to see a shift in trader sentiment in this regard.

Hogs are continuing their yo-yo like trading - rallying to limit up one day, then dropping sharply the next, then back up, then back down. Discombobulated is the best word that I can think of to describe trading in this pit right now. That being said, any hog producers out there would do well to begin instituting some hedge coverage on expected 4th quarter hog marketings. Profits are enormous for that time frame - do not let them slip completely out of your fingers.

If you want to hold out some portion of your production betting on even higher prices, so be it; just do not bet the farm. Be prudent and secure some of the best 4th quarter profits that I have ever seen in the hogs on a portion of your marketings.

Don't let the usual bullish hype around the disease lull you into a state of complacency. Some are suggesting that producers are not going to be expanding due to virus issues. That sort of thing has been proven wrong already by the last USDA quarterly hogs and pigs report. Don't expect for one moment that those advocating this will be correct - they are not. Listening to them will cost you - big time. Secure some coverage and sleep well before gambling with your earnings/livelihood. There are some decent combination futures/option strategies that you can employ. Check with your broker to get some help along that line.

The corn and bean markets took a bit of a break today from moving higher as the forecasts called for some warmer weather which will allow farmers to get into the fields and make some planting progress. One never knows about weather forecasts but bulls pulled some winnings off the table, just in case. The bullish chart pattern however remains intact. Traders are going to want to see evidence of strong planting progress before becoming too bearish.

Incidentally, news today from the CME Group that it is considering limits for its gold and silver futures contracts. That has elicited the expected response from the GIAMATT crowd crowing, "we told you so", when it comes to the wild price swings in gold. Sadly for them it proves nothing at all about "nefarious evil doers" manipulating the price of gold for the government. What it does prove, if anything, is that computerized algorithms continue to wreak havoc in our financial markets and the wild volatility, so often unpredictable in nature, is scaring business and would-be customers away from the exchanges. They are grappling with how to deal with all of this. Limits might help but I doubt it. Position size reductions would be more instrumental in my view but that will probably never happen. Watching hogs go from limit down to limit up in the same day is a perfect example of what the computers have done to the price discovery process. If that is not enough for you, try trading old crop soybeans if you are bored and you will get a first hand lesson into the nature of modern computer algorithms.

Not much has changed on the gold chart which I am presenting here:

As you can see, it remains mired in its trading range. The range is constricting further however as first the top side moved down to near $1320 and now has moved down to just above $1300. The bottom is intact near $1280. Two things worth noting however - the stochastics indicator ( used for range trading ) just gave a new sell signal while the ADX line is beginning a very slow rise. Normally that indicates the presence of a trending move. With the -DMI ( Red Line ) above the +DMI ( Blue Line) that translates to a trending move lower. The chart pattern however does not as of yet show a clearly defined trend. That will require a strong close BELOW $1280 to achieve.  Stay tuned - this Friday might be a game changer.

The mining shares are a tad weaker based off the HUI today.

One last thing - the VIX or volatility index, dropped lower and is sitting near 13.38. There is not the least bit of fear/uncertainty or whatever in these markets, which is rather remarkable given the high degree of margin debt.

Speak Loudly and Carry a Wet Noodle

That pretty much sums up the market's reaction to the announcement of a new set of "sanctions" unveiled by the current administration against Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russia over events in Ukraine.

Sellers in gold wasted no time in declaring their view of the "strong message" ( note sarcasm here ) being sent to Russia proceeding to knock it back down below the $1300 level.

Further aiding the move lower was the heavy selling in Newmont and more weakness in Barrick over the announcement that any merger between the two was off the table for now.

The Yen also moved lower signaling the absence of any safe haven play as bonds also moved lower. Equities are moving in and out of positive territory as I type these comments. Safe havens are on hold, at least for today. There remains a great deal of volatility with short term technical factors dominating trading today.

I mentioned last Friday that I do not believe gold has much upside here because at this time I do not see events in Ukraine spreading outside of that region. If the market felt like those events could be a harbinger of more to come, gold would be much stronger. That it is not, is evidence enough that while the situation remains tense, most do not see it spreading beyond that region. Rallies in gold are therefore attracting selling even as dips lower are attracting buying from some due to the ongoing geopolitical developments. As stated so many, many times here now, buying gold due to geopolitical events is extremely risky. You have no idea what might or might not happen and thus it is entirely a crapshoot. That is not trading; it is not investing either for that matter; it is gambling. If you want to gamble, head to Las Vegas or Reno - at least they have some great looking showgirls while you are losing your money.

Corn continues to attract buying as traders are concerned over the slow start to planting this year. Also, the cool, wet conditions have raised concerns about poor germination of those crops which have been seeded. Soil temps are not warm enough and the market wants to see more sunshine.

This past Friday's Cattle on Feed report was considered friendly to the market as it caught some by surprise who were expecting to see larger numbers moving ahead. Feeder cattle continue to make all time highs as most small specs are caught on the short side and are getting squeezed out in a brutal fashion. How some of these guys paying the kinds of prices that they are for feeders are going to be able to make any money on them is a big mystery to me but that does not seem to be impacting things at the moment. Hogs are bleeding out of some the premium in there as traders take a "show me" attitude towards the slaughter numbers and the impact from the PED virus.

Crude oil continues weak in today's session further retreating from the double top near the $105 level.

Silver has once again attracted selling as it neared $20. It remains stuck in a narrow range between that level and $19 on the bottom.

Safe Havens Boost Gold

Once again, it is back to tracking events in Ukraine when it comes to gold. Traders are running away from risk and into the usual safe havens ( gold, bonds and the Yen).

This is going to be the scenario until something changes over there so get used to it. As I mentioned yesterday, it is basically a crap shoot. Those who expect the events to get worse are buying gold; those who expect them to be more contained are selling the rally. Both sides are utterly dependent on what happens next but more importantly, what is PERCEIVED to be the course of events.

Personally I do not see a lot of  upside for gold here because the situation, as tense as it is, has not thus far spread to anywhere outside of Ukraine. In that sense, while it is not insignificant, it is not likely to have much impact ( other than the short term market gyrations associated with geopolitical events ) on regions outside of that immediate area. It certainly is not going to move the Fed one way or the other when it comes to Tapering plans or interest rate policy. As mentioned many times here, that will be completely dependent on subsequent US economic data releases.

This is the reason that gold is struggling to maintain the "13" handle in spite of the escalation in tensions. If the bombs start going off in earnest or we get larger scale shooting or conflict, gold will be bid higher but many traders do not see this thing moving beyond Ukraine at this point.

What we have seen is a bout of sharp, short-covering from speculative interests who had been pressing the metal from the short side. They are standing aside and allowing events to unfold further before coming back in to sell in size. That is allowing an air pocket above the market and price is moving in the path of least resistance which for now is higher.

I would caution those who are looking to buy the metal here. Just be careful - geopolitical events are very tricky - you might hit it big and then again, you might not. Whatever you decide to go, no matter which way, long or short, do not be slow on the draw if need be. You can never anticipate when events on the ground will change and flip the market in the other direction.

As a trader you do not always need to be in the market. Sometimes the sidelines is the proper place. Let others chop each other up while you wait for the trend to re-establish itself after the excitement lifts. I have made it a habit never to chase gold over geopolitical events because one never knows how those will turn out. If you own some physical gold, you can be content with that but do not chase it higher if you are a trader. Even if you miss out on a move, the structure of the market becomes too unstable and that sort of thing is asking for disaster in these highly leveraged futures now that computers are doing the brunt of the trading.

I am noticing that crude is getting hit hard today. We have large supplies of the stuff but some are unsure how to trade it due to the geopolitical concerns. For now the bears are flexing their muscles. Gasoline is a bit weaker today but the stuff has moved up some $0.50/gallon since mid-January this year much to the chagrin and frustration of consumers who were relishing the lower prices back then.

Moo-Moos and Piggies parted ways today with hogs going down and cattle going up. Packers have been able to move the higher priced beef for now while pork demand has hit a temporary lull it would seem. Consumers are going to learn quickly, if they have not done so already, that beef prices are at record highs. Again, I look for relief later this year but the summer grilling season is going to suck.

Corn continues to draw buying from those playing up the cold, wet planting season weather. There is no doubt that planting is running behind normal. Most expected it to do so given the intensity of the cold winter and the fact that some of the Great Lakes were frozen over. The big question is whether or not we will have a good growing season regardless. Some chatter that El Nino will help out the crop is around but it is a bit early to bank on that. For now, the bulls are in charge of the corn market. They were certainly back to playing " the US is going to run entirely out of old crop soybeans" theme  in the bean market once again today as May hit the magical $15.00 level. We'll see if China begins any cancellations in earnest and whether or not imports from S. American begin to really take off.

I will get a chart up later for both gold, the COT stuff and the mining shares. I do not know whether or not the COT data will show the hedge fund short covering that has been occurring this week. My guess is that it will not, at least not in size because the big move from down below $1280 did not come until events flared up over in Ukraine on Thursday, two days after the cutoff point from the CFTC. Same goes for silver - hedge funds have been playing it increasingly from the short side and the combination of a stronger durable goods number, plus the psychological support from a higher gold price no doubt sent a fair number of shorts scurrying to cover but that occurred after Tuesday of this week. In other words, do not read too much into today's COT data. With what happened on Thursday, it is interesting but far too dated to give a clear read on how things stand here at the end of the week.

 Considering the move higher in gold and its ability to recapture a "13" handle, the miners look rather lackluster at the moment. Maybe that will change by the closing bell. The HUI continues to trade down below both its 50 day moving average and its 200 day moving average, not exactly a glaring example of a big market endorsement of the sector. There is value-based buying at work in the sector but the momentum crowd is MIA.

The US stock markets are getting hit with some selling ahead of the weekend as traders are nervous holding long positions over the weekend in which anything can or might happen. Caution/prudence dictates standing aside, especially if you have some decent profits. I suspect that a fair number of money managers/institutions are welcoming this move lower in the broader equities. Valuations have not been cheap keeping many from buying. Their problem has been that they do not want to miss the move up but are hesitant to buy when many issues are trading up so close to chart highs. The setback will allow some strategic positioning to begin taking place.

So far, 1880 - 1890 on the S&P has proven to be a bridge too far for the bulls. Its session low at 1853 is right about even with the 50 day moving average. The 100 day comes in near 1830 which also corresponds  closely to the mid-March swing low at 1823. If the 50 day does not hold it, I would look for prices to drift down towards that level to see if the market can uncover some buying there.

More later...

HUI Chart

A quick chart update...

The 200 day moving average is serving to cap the move higher, for now. Nothing definitive either way, bull or bear. It's a crap shoot and traders do not shoot craps.

Stop Hunting - the Financial Version of the Hunger Games

Just a quick post for now to detail some goings on this morning.... more later including some charts...

The Durable Goods number that came out this morning and caused some ripples. By the way, those are "big ticket" items. The orders jumped 2.6% from February last month beating the market expectations of a 2% rise. It was also the largest increase since November.

The result of this was to set off a round of short covering in the copper market as those who have been shorting copper based off of problems in China and expected slower growth there, were caught off guard by the strength of the number here. China is the world's largest user of copper but the US is still important to that market.

I noticed that as copper strengthened on this bout of short covering, so too did silver. It seemed those leaning on the industrial metals from the short side decided to head to the sidelines and await some further data before pressing their case.  Copper has been quietly sneaking higher over the last month tacking on some $0.25/pound and while the chart is not especially friendly, it seems to have found a bottom below $3.00 for now. As many of you who read this blog regularly know, I track that market quite closely as I believe it is a much better barometer of what is going on as far as growth or lack thereof than most anything else.

The way I am reading that chart right now is that growth is not solid but neither is it all that sluggish. In other words, things are improving, but not by all that much. If copper can clear $3.20 then I will feel more comfortable about future economic growth prospects.

Hey, how about that REVERSE FLASH CRASH where the "good, benign, saintly" manipulators came in an shoved gold higher in some sort of perverse spike upwards? First it was run lower and a huge number of downside sell stops were picked off enriching quite a few floor traders in the process, only to careen higher forcing a huge number of buy stops to be run.

I am reminded of the old song:

" A hunting we will go, a hunting we will go; Hi, Ho, the derry O, a hunting we will go".

Just insert the word 'stop' in front of the word 'hunting' and you about have it.

By the way, do not expect to hear any round of criticism from the GIAMATT crowd about the ricochet higher in price. After all, that is reserved only for downward moves in price. Spikes higher are perfectly acceptable because we all know that everyone who wants to buy gold in large quantities wants to make sure that they buy it in such an obvious fashion that they drive the price higher so that they can pay a much higher price for it than if they had otherwise quietly been accumulating it.

I am using a bit of sarcasm here to just prove the point I continually make here at this site - today's wild swings in price are evidence of the broken nature of our markets due to the proliferation of computerized trading which rips price higher and lower as the new norm. Remember this the next time gold drops lower and up start the usual: "FLASH CRASH - evidence of evil manipulators at work" nonsense flares up.

Here is what actually happened and it had NOTHING, ZERO, NADA to do with manipulators or some secret esoteric anonymous large trader lurking in London or anything else - News hit the floor that Russia has decided to hold military exercises near the Ukranian borders and that included air operations.

Pro-Russian forces in eastern Ukraine are continuing to clash with Ukranian forces and that announcement sent stocks temporarily lower while gold shot higher as safe haven plays popped up. You can usually see that sort of thing when the Yen reverses and scoots higher.

It looks to me like the initial spike higher has attracted some sellers now that things seemed to have calmed down a bit. We will have to wait and see how the dust settles today. As long as there are any fears of further escalations over there in Ukraine, the market will be supported. If those fears fade, watch for more selling pressure to re-emerge once again.

Goldman Sachs Saves Gold from Falling Apart

Yes, you read that headline correctly, much to the chagrin of the GIAMATT crowd. What am I referring to? Answer - this morning, two analysts from that firm upgraded their recommendation on the precious metals mining sector to "Neutral" from "Sell". They cited " a more responsible use of shareholder wealth". I found that rather interesting to say the least.

What was even more interesting was the headline that the story came down the Dow Jones wire under: " Gold Miners Now Less Likely to Torch Your Money". While it is a serious matter to those who have been so hurt by investing in this sector, I had to chuckle at the caption that the reporter chose. I think it pretty much summed up the sentiment of many toward these miserable things.

It was this upgrade of the miners which kept gold from utterly collapsing below critical chart support centered around the $1280 level. Hedge fund selling leaned on the market early in the session with a couple of approaches to $1280 on decent volume. Price rebounded away from that support but could not manage to make much upward progress. A big push finally took it down through $1280 but with the gold miners refusing to follow, short covering took the price back up again.

Obviously, there is a fierce battle occurring over this chart level. Whichever side blinks first, is going to lose it. As mentioned in recent posts, speculators are becoming more interested in playing gold from the short side, although, I wish to reiterate, they remain net long still. They are selling while bullion banks are buying to cover shorts. Ignore any talk about this being a plot of the bullion banks to take gold lower therefore.

Hedge funds are already net short copper, very close, if not already there now, net short silver, and are reducing their net long exposure to gold. If the gold price cannot find its feet right here, right now, watch for increasing long side liquidation and a new wave of fresh shorting.

Here is a look at the gold chart:

Notice how it is flirting dangerously with that red line that has held it going back to early this month. If it cannot recover quickly, price should move to test $1260, and then $1240 if that were to fail. Again, were it not for that Goldman recommendation on the mining shares, we would not be talking about $1280 at this point but rather whether or not $1260 is going to hold. Those who keep with this non-stop gold is being manipulated lower by Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan talk would do well to thank them at this point for saving their investment account from even worse harm.

There is nothing gold for the bulls as far as any sort of upside potential unless gold were to push past $1320 for starters. We'll have to see how Asia responds to the move lower this evening. Last night was not exactly a stellar endorsement. Maybe picking up the metal another $7 - $10 lower will make a difference.

Incidentally, those Newmont Mining/Barrick merger rumors are continuing today.

It sure did not help gold any today watching crude oil get whacked lower. It is still trading above the $100/barrel level so it is not exactly falling apart but it does appear that the $105 ceiling is still very much intact.

In yesterday's post, I mentioned the planting progress or more properly, the lack thereof, in regards to corn. The "corn is never going to ever get planted this year" guys pounced all over that driving it back up above the $5.00 mark. That pressured beans as traders are concerned more farmers will have to shift to beans instead of corn. You will have to watch the weather forecasts to figure out which way these things will go from here on out.

 Welcome to the start of grain trading season!

By the way, for those who enjoy inflicting pain upon themselves, try trading coffee if you are bored. After imploding early last week, it went flying upward on Thursday last week just about erasing the losses from the two previous trading sessions. It then fell yesterday but decided to rally over 7.5% today. In the process it managed to score a 9 week high. To put that in a bit of perspective - that is an over $4,200 move in a single contract in one day! Maybe tomorrow or Thursday it will give it all back up again. Seriously, unless you really know this particular market, leave it alone. I know a couple of guys who traded that stuff and ended up having it cost them their commodity trading career.

I mention it only as an example of just how wild and unpredictable these commodity futures markets have become on account of the computer generated buying and selling. It is the norm, not the exception. Remember that whenever you are tempted to swallow that "flash crash" nonsense that constantly surfaces whenever gold has a sharp move lower. These sorts of insane price swings are everywhere, in every market anymore.

Let's see how gold fares the rest of today. Perhaps I will post a more updated chart later this evening depending on how things go. Bulls are piggybacking on Goldman's recommendation to keep the price supported for now.

Gold Holds $1280 support; Remains Rangebound

Not much going on in gold today - it ran down to test the bottom of its trading range near $1280 and bounced off of that. Strength in the Dollar and a general sea of red across much of the commodity complex, undercut any reason to get aggressive buying it but enough interest was stirred down near that critical support level to prevent a sharper drop.

Gold shares were of no help for most of the day with the HUI exhibiting general weakness but towards the end of the session many of the share components of that index managed off their worst levels of the session. Gold over at the Comex seemed to come up alongside some of those shares.

I noticed that GG moved higher, gaining over 2% as I type these comments as management has effectively given up on their efforts to acquire Osisko. The market liked that in regards to GG but understood the implications for Osisko with that stock dropping 5.8% as I type this. That effectively clears the way for Yamana and Agnico-Eagle to pick it up. Both of those stocks were hammered lower. Obviously the market thinks they are going to end up paying too much for it given the weak gold price and its rather dubious prospects at this stage.

It will be up to the Asians to prop this thing up tonight here in the West ( in the morning over there in the East ). If they pull back for any reason, gold is in trouble. We'll watch the overnight trade and hopefully be able to see some clues as to their intentions.

The late comeback enabled the HUI to dodge the proverbial bullet today as it was flirting with a key technical chart support level near its session low. The bottom is holding as a result; however, any further strength in the US Dollar will probably see that fail. The currency markets, along with the US interest rate market, are the key drivers for gold right now.

Corn moved lower today, along with wheat which was derailed by talk of rainfall in the parched regions where it is badly needed. Beans were also pressured today although the bulls did their usual ramp job on the close as they came in and bought a bunch of them back. There was also a round of short covering as frustrated bears waiting for the funds to finally get out of these things got impatient and said, "the hell with it" and closed out some trades. Some large specs are convinced that the US is going to run out of beans before we get any of the early harvest from this year's crop coming in and that is why they keep coming back and buying the beans. When this theory/sentiment shifts, we will know it.

This afternoon we got the plantings progress number from the pencil pushers. Corn came in at 6% planted compared to last year's 4% at this time and the 5 year average of 14%. I would remind you that these numbers are not nearly as important as they once were given the significant advancements in the speed at which US farmers can get those seeds in the ground nowadays but old habits seem to die hard in the grain markets and there are some who still view these numbers as if they mean anything this time of the year. They still have enough clout as far as their buying and selling goes that one has to react to this goofiness but it is what it is and traders have to understand that and position accordingly. Both corn and soybeans have built up a nice demand base as prices retreated from all time highs last season. The question is, especially for beans, will that demand base remain intact given the potential for a large bean crop up here in the Northern Hemisphere this growing season. Along that line, any more credit related issues concerning the Chinese and soybean purchases is going to be ONE VERY BIG DEAL.

Cold Storage will be coming out this week so we livestock traders will be watching for that. I enjoy getting the emails and comments from some concerning the sky-high prices that they are seeing for both pork and beef in their local grocery stores. The drama is playing out as expected. What I can tell you is that I am very confident that we will see prices move lower this fall for both but this spring/summer is going to be one which is not going to be a lot of fun for those of us that enjoy bar-b-q. Sadly, this is what happens when we get back to back drought years  in cattle country ( 2011 + 2012) along with record high prices for corn and meal ( some blame goes to that pestilential ethanol crap). One simply cannot do a single thing to change the breeding cycle of bovine bovinus ( that is my pitiful attempt to throw some fancy Latin phrases around to impress the reader ) as it takes time to rebuild a cattle herd.

I hope the readers had an enjoyable Easter weekend. It is back to the sawmill now.

Weekly Gold Chart

I wanted to take just a short bit of time between firing up the pit smoker and throwing some bovine flesh upon it to put up a quick chart of gold for the readers.

As I mentioned on Thursday, gold is totally at the mercy of events in Ukraine for the time being.

You can see on the chart that the metal has been range bound for some time now ( about one year ). Please keep this is mind when you read more breathless talk about gold being poised for a big move "any time now". How many of these "any time now's" have we read over the last year? Whether it is the GOFO talk or backwardation talk or "Russia is going to dump the Dollar" talk, or whatever.

Technically not a single one of these premises, or others not listed, have changed the technical posture of this market for a year.  If and only if the price breaks out of this range, can we say with certainty that the market has become concerned with these things. For now, it could care less and thus neither should we.

The green rectangle defines the range which is near $1400 on the top side and just below $1200 on the bottom side for a range of some $200. Just last month ( March ) the price had rallied up to the top of the range only to meet with selling. That pushed it back down with it looking likely that it was headed down towards $1200 once more. However, events flared up in Ukraine and gold received some strong bids due to safe haven flows. Those bids came in near $1280.

The circumstances due to these geopolitical concerns have created a new and higher bottom at the $1280 level. However, gold has been unable to push past $1320 for any length of time. That has carved out a new range within the broader range. This is marked on the chart as "Tighter Trading Range".

These two levels are our new boundaries which are confining the price for the time being. If the market senses any lessening of tensions in Ukraine, chances are that $1280 will not hold on the bottom. If not, there is a band of congestion between $1260 - $1240 that will draw it like a magnet should it fail. There is little support between $1240 and $1200 meaning that if $1240 were to fail, $1200 will be tested.

On the upside, only a breach of $1320 would give the bulls the needed impetus to make a run to $1350.

If events in Ukraine fade from traders' minds, the focus will shift back to US economic data with participants looking for clues to the Fed's future actions on in US interest rate front. Any improvements on the jobs front will immediately fan the flames of higher interest rates next spring, which the market continues to waver back and forth on. Higher rates will pressure gold as it should support the US Dollar. Again, we do not know what the economic data will look like and thus that leaves the markets very susceptible to sudden and sharp price swings either way as price responds to changes in expectations or sentiment along those lines.

Lastly, here is the current Commitment of Traders data viewed in chart form as to the positioning of the large hedge funds in comparison to the price of the metal.

There was a rather large shift this week in the positioning of the hedgies as they were both liquidating stale longs and adding new shorts. The combination dropped their current net long position by some 8000 contracts or so. This is the reason for my concern if the $1280 level does not hold - there will be a significant amount of long liquidation among this category of traders if it does not.

In another interesting development, the small traders, the general public, were selling gold this past week as well. Is the bloom coming off the metal for this category? They are net long still but this is the least bullish they have been in five weeks. Sentiment could be changing in the speculative community and that will bear close monitoring.

Happy Easter.