Please click on the following link to listen in to my regular weekly radio interview with Eric King of King World News on the Markets and Metals Wrap.
Saturday, July 14, 2012
Thursday, July 12, 2012
HUI to Gold Ratio Dipping Down Towards Undervaluation Levels Once Again
The breech of the 400 level in the HUI has brought out some further stop-loss related selling as well as fresh shorting by hungry bears in the sector. GoldCorp's news from yesterday is still impacting the miners in general.
That being said, the underperformance of the mining shares against the price of Gold is dropping this important ratio down toward those levels which have been considered as "undervalued" once again. While it is small consolation to mining equity bulls to see the value of their holdings being diminished once again, it does appear that we are entering a region that should engender value based accumulation sooner rather than later.
In one sense, the miners are suffering from the same fate as gold bullion as it waits for further signs of QE from the Federal Reserve. However, there are also some cases where disappointing fundamental news has given some hedge funds the boldness to ply those ratio spread trades of theirs once again.
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That being said, the underperformance of the mining shares against the price of Gold is dropping this important ratio down toward those levels which have been considered as "undervalued" once again. While it is small consolation to mining equity bulls to see the value of their holdings being diminished once again, it does appear that we are entering a region that should engender value based accumulation sooner rather than later.
In one sense, the miners are suffering from the same fate as gold bullion as it waits for further signs of QE from the Federal Reserve. However, there are also some cases where disappointing fundamental news has given some hedge funds the boldness to ply those ratio spread trades of theirs once again.
Trader Dan on King World News
Please take a bit of time to check out my recent written interview with Eric King of KIng World News as we discuss the technical price chart of the US Dollar and some general concepts about price action.
It should be kept in mind that a rallying Dollar tends to bring pressure across most of the commodity complex as a sector. There are exceptions however and we note those.
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/7/12_Crucial_Chart_%26_What_to_Expect_From_US_Dollar,_Euro_%26_Gold.html
It should be kept in mind that a rallying Dollar tends to bring pressure across most of the commodity complex as a sector. There are exceptions however and we note those.
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/7/12_Crucial_Chart_%26_What_to_Expect_From_US_Dollar,_Euro_%26_Gold.html
Tuesday, July 10, 2012
More Long Term Bearish News for the US Dollar
While the near term chart picture for the US Dollar is decidedly friendly, more and more frequently we are reading reports such as the following out of Dow Jones.
It is not difficult to see where all of this is heading. The US is declining and going the way of all empires and kingdoms throughout history who spent themselves into oblivion and refused to consider the long term implications of their policies.
Esau squandered his birthright for a bowl of stew. The US monetary authorities and inept political leaders have squandered the Dollar's reserve currency status for what??? A pox on the whole pathetic batch of them all.
DJ Australia's Swan: To Discuss With China Possible Direct Conversion of Australian Dollar, Yuan
HONG KONG--Australia will discuss with China officials the potential for
direct conversion of the Australian dollar and the Chinese yuan for
transactions completed in mainland China, Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan said
Wednesday.
"This has the potential over time to help reduce the cost of trade between
Australia and China," said Mr. Swan, who spoke at a forum in Hong Kong before
heading to Beijing for discussions with officials on yuan internationalization.
Mr. Swan said Australia has strongly supported China's move toward a freely
traded currency, and toward "a fully integrated economy that will very soon
lead the world."
It is not difficult to see where all of this is heading. The US is declining and going the way of all empires and kingdoms throughout history who spent themselves into oblivion and refused to consider the long term implications of their policies.
Esau squandered his birthright for a bowl of stew. The US monetary authorities and inept political leaders have squandered the Dollar's reserve currency status for what??? A pox on the whole pathetic batch of them all.
DJ Australia's Swan: To Discuss With China Possible Direct Conversion of Australian Dollar, Yuan
HONG KONG--Australia will discuss with China officials the potential for
direct conversion of the Australian dollar and the Chinese yuan for
transactions completed in mainland China, Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan said
Wednesday.
"This has the potential over time to help reduce the cost of trade between
Australia and China," said Mr. Swan, who spoke at a forum in Hong Kong before
heading to Beijing for discussions with officials on yuan internationalization.
Mr. Swan said Australia has strongly supported China's move toward a freely
traded currency, and toward "a fully integrated economy that will very soon
lead the world."
Silver Chart - by Request
Taking a look at silver on the weekly chart it is not too difficult to see that it has been in a well-defined downtrend since peaking in the spring of last year. Rallies are being sold but dips into the region near $27.00 - $26.00 have been bought. The result has been to form a perfect triangle pattern on the chart. This latter or bottom level of support has thus become CRITICAL to the future prospects of the metal.
It is getting very close to this downside line again this week. Bears are going to continue to try to press it to see if they can push enough longs out of the market to break it lower. If the bulls falter or waver in the least, the metal will buckle and then drop very quickly to the 75% Fibonacci Retracement level near $25.47 with the $25 level also within range.
To get anything going to the upside in this market is going to require a push through the $30 level that can maintain a handle of "30" in front of this market.
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It is getting very close to this downside line again this week. Bears are going to continue to try to press it to see if they can push enough longs out of the market to break it lower. If the bulls falter or waver in the least, the metal will buckle and then drop very quickly to the 75% Fibonacci Retracement level near $25.47 with the $25 level also within range.
To get anything going to the upside in this market is going to require a push through the $30 level that can maintain a handle of "30" in front of this market.
US Dollar Looks Strong
The rally in the US Dollar continues not out of any particular set of strong fundamentals in the US but rather out of a general aversion to the Euro and by consequence, to the European currencies.
While the Fed seems to be basically standing pat for the immediate moment, the Bank of England has announced another round of its bond buying program while the ECB has lowered rates. Given that backdrop and the lingering fears and uncertainty over the bailout mechanism put in place by the European finance ministers and political leaders, traders continue to bid up the Dollar. This buying is a reflection of the unease among traders over current market conditions. People are confused to say the least and when they are, moves tend to be exaggerated as liquidity is falling off with some either lightening up or simply moving to the sidelines altogether.
That being said, this buying has pushed the Dollar right smack dab to an important technical resistance level on its longer term chart. If you note, it has already bested both the 50% and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of the entire decline from back in 2010 to 2011. It remains above this latter level this week. If it can push through that overhead resistance line, there does not appear to be a whole lot between it and the 2010 peak. That means it would have the potential to make a run towards the 89 level.
While that seems difficult to envision for some Dollar bears, given the pathetic condition of the US economy and it fiscal woes, one has to keep in mind that compared to the Euro, it looks good! (that is not saying much but the USDX is weighted against the "value" of other major currencies). We will have to wait and see should the Dollar indeed manage to move higher as we could normally expect to see pressure across the commodity sector in general.
I would imagine that conditions in the Eurozone would have to begin deteriorating more rapidly to see the Dollar accomplish this feat. If that were the case, traders would most assuredly work those "slowing global growth" trades once again. That would bring some further pressure on the silver market. It would also however ramp up pressure on the US Fed to move forward with their next round of bond buying, a factor which, if traders are convinced is coming, would see the grey metal shrug off that selling pressure and move higher in anticipation of the next wave of liquidation injections.
![]()
While the Fed seems to be basically standing pat for the immediate moment, the Bank of England has announced another round of its bond buying program while the ECB has lowered rates. Given that backdrop and the lingering fears and uncertainty over the bailout mechanism put in place by the European finance ministers and political leaders, traders continue to bid up the Dollar. This buying is a reflection of the unease among traders over current market conditions. People are confused to say the least and when they are, moves tend to be exaggerated as liquidity is falling off with some either lightening up or simply moving to the sidelines altogether.
That being said, this buying has pushed the Dollar right smack dab to an important technical resistance level on its longer term chart. If you note, it has already bested both the 50% and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of the entire decline from back in 2010 to 2011. It remains above this latter level this week. If it can push through that overhead resistance line, there does not appear to be a whole lot between it and the 2010 peak. That means it would have the potential to make a run towards the 89 level.
While that seems difficult to envision for some Dollar bears, given the pathetic condition of the US economy and it fiscal woes, one has to keep in mind that compared to the Euro, it looks good! (that is not saying much but the USDX is weighted against the "value" of other major currencies). We will have to wait and see should the Dollar indeed manage to move higher as we could normally expect to see pressure across the commodity sector in general.
I would imagine that conditions in the Eurozone would have to begin deteriorating more rapidly to see the Dollar accomplish this feat. If that were the case, traders would most assuredly work those "slowing global growth" trades once again. That would bring some further pressure on the silver market. It would also however ramp up pressure on the US Fed to move forward with their next round of bond buying, a factor which, if traders are convinced is coming, would see the grey metal shrug off that selling pressure and move higher in anticipation of the next wave of liquidation injections.
Monday, July 9, 2012
MidWest US Drought Fueling Talk of Soaring Food Prices
The fierce drought that has gripped the lower section of the US corn belt and has been ravaging both corn and soybeans in the region has sent corn futures limit up today and soybeans for the front month July contract to a new all time high. That has sent shudders through the minds of some traders who are convinced that it is only a matter of time before all of this feeds through to the supply chain. REsult - higher grain prices meaning higher food prices in general.
This phenomenon has gotten hedge funds back to buying commodities across the board this morning even with the equity markets careening lower. Gold and particularly silver are getting money inflows as a result.
I mentioned a while back that the old time traders used to see a connection between the price of soybeans and the price of silver. That connection seems to be back in full force today.
This phenomenon has gotten hedge funds back to buying commodities across the board this morning even with the equity markets careening lower. Gold and particularly silver are getting money inflows as a result.
I mentioned a while back that the old time traders used to see a connection between the price of soybeans and the price of silver. That connection seems to be back in full force today.
Saturday, July 7, 2012
Trader Dan on King World News Markets and Metals Wrap
Please click on the following link to listen in to my regular weekly radio interview with Eric King on the KWN Markets and Metals wrap where we discuss this week's price action in the markets.
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