"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat
Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput
Trader Dan's Work is NOW AVAILABLE AT WWW.TRADERDAN.NET
This past week's COT report was delayed until Monday (yesterday) on account of the Thanksgiving holiday. It does however confirm the market price action in both gold and silver which are currently stuck in no-man's land experiencing range bound trade with firm resistance on rallies and good support on dips.
Simply put - speculative interest in the metals has dampened off considerably as more and more traders/funds move to a cash position and lower their overall exposure to the commodity sector in general (risk assets). This is particularly evident among the general public, the small spec category, which have fled both silver and gold. In the case of gold, this category of traders is now holding the smallest net long position since February 2010. They have also cut their net long exposure to gold about 44% since the peak made back in March of this year.
The big hedge funds continue to draw down net long exposure as well. This is not a recipe for higher prices.
While the reports indicate that a thorough cleansing process of both metals has been underway, it also confirms why neither market can currently get anything sustained to the upside. There is simply not enough speculative interest to push prices sharply higher at this time. Something will have to change on the fundamental front that triggers a strong desire on the part of the speculators to bid up the prices of both metals.
Keep in mind, there is nothing bullish about COT reports which show a fall off in speculative demand. Our modern markets are driven by money flows and money flows come from speculators. Until and unless they come into a market in a sustained fashion, prices will not be able to escape pressure related to commercial selling. The only thing "bullish" about this week's reports is that they do show plenty of room for this sort of speculative interest to build ONCE SOMETHING TRIGGERS THAT BUYING INTEREST. Until it does, neither one of these markets will be able to escape the range trade that currently holds them in check.
One other thing - a large part of the fall off in open interest in both metals is due to spread trades being taken off. Those are primarily a function of speculators playing differentials between various contract months. The fall off in the number of spreads also confirms the waning speculative interest in both markets.
Lastly, Silver continues to see the Swap Dealers increasing the size of their net long position. You've got to go back to April 2009 to see anything resembling this size exposure to the long side in silver by this category. That is rather interesting. This category is difficult to decipher because they can be putting on positions for clients, trading for themselves or hedging private contracts. But it could be that this is the reason silver has thus far been able to consistently bounce off the $30 support level. The Swap Dealers seem to be pretty comfortable with long side exposure in the metal down there. My guess is that if and when silver prices do eventually mount an upside breech of overhead resistance and begin a trending move higher, these traders will be selling out longs, booking profits and then moving back to the short side in a more conventional pattern for what we are accustomed to seeing with this group.
Talk about potential IMF loans to Italy had everyone feeling slap-happy in today's trading session, especially seeing that the finanical world did not come to an end over the US Thanksgiving holiday weekend.
Back on came the risk trades; up went the equity markets; up went the commodity markets in general and down went the US Dollar.
Both gold and silver moved higher with silver leading the way in this "risk environment".
If you note the gold chart below, it ran to $1720, the next resistance level noted on the chart, where it then encountered some selling pressure which kept it from getting too far out from that level. I would like to see this market stay above $1725 for at least one bar before thinking it can mount a run back towards $1750 with its first stop on that journey near $1735.
Gold did manage to claw its way back above the upper tine of the bearish pitchfork which should now serve to support the market on any dip lower IF THIS MARKET is going to have a shot at turning the psychology a bit friendlier. For that to occur, it seems to me we are going to see some sort of fundamental spark which would undercut the recent strength in the US Dollar. Traders may be selling the Dollar today but that could all very quickly reverse if today's euphoria turns sour.
Simply put - there is no clear cut trend in gold, or for that matter silver right now as far too much depends on perceptions involving conditions across the Eurozone.
Wax on - Wax off - Risk on - Risk off. That is the story once again.
Please click on the following link to listen in to my radio interview with Eric King on the KWN Weekly Metals Wrap.
We do indeed have much to still be thankful for in this wondrous land of ours.
The Wall Street Journal has a fine tradition of reprinting some wonderful reading each and every year in honor of our Thanksgiving holiday. May I suggest taking a bit of time to read these two fine articles and reflect on the sacrifices made by those who came to these shores more than 400 years ago and by those who looked upon what they had created years later and recorded their thoughts.
The Desolate Wilderness
A chronicle of the Pilgrims' arrival at Plymouth, as recorded by Nathaniel Morton.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204323904577037920016916462.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_AboveLEFTTop
And the Fair Land
'For all our social discord we yet remain the longest enduring society of free men governing themselves without benefit of kings or dictators
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204323904577037921612867912.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_AboveLEFTTop
Gold has now gone down and visited the critical support level near $1680 three times in the last three trading days, each time managing to recover as it attracted quality buying and rebounded. Considering the weak action in both the HUI and in silver, and of course strength in the Dollar, this is encouraging but overall the market is acting rather poorly.
Until this market can manage to regain its footing above $1725, it is in a precarious position. I got the distinct impression that many traders did not want to go home short over a long holiday weekend period (many are taking off until Sunday evening) due to concerns over what may great them come Sunday evening/Monday morning of next week.
The Dollar is on course to end this week on a very strong note barring any changes in the fundamental picture in Europe. That will lead to further weakness in commodities in general. Now that the failed German bund action has sent shock waves through the markets in general and chatter continues to grow that France is next on the downgrade list, the US Dollar is seeing strong inflows as money comes out of Europe. One has to wonder if the Asians are dumping Euro-based debt and gravitating towards Treasuries.
At some point in this crisis, gold is going to stop following the general commodity sector lower and will trade as a safe haven but it is going to continue to experience computer selling from hedge funds and index funds which benchmark against the various commodity indices. It should be noted however that gold is holding much better than silver or the CCI in general. This is due to its function as a safe haven. Were it not for that, it would be getting sold down more severely due to the mad rush for cash currently underway.
Note the various support levels and resistance levels I have noted on the chart. The failure at $1800 is very evident now that we have had some time to put in some more trading bars on the chart. Rallies are being held in check by the downsloping dark blue line of the pitchfork. Support has been established below $1680 with some spiking down towards $1665 producing some decent ricochetting back above $1680. Failure to hold these lows established this week should let the market fall down towards the downsloping red line which parallels the upper tine of the pitchfork.
Silver rallied yesterday on news about a proposed IMF plan to aid Europe. That took equities higher, the Dollar lower and the metals up for the ride. Today that is yesterday's news as the pitiful German bond auction sent investors fleeing out of everything they bought yesterday and rushing back into the Dollar once again.
Down goes silver, crude oil, copper and just about everything else on the planet.
All you need to know about silver is contained in the following two charts. The first is the Continuous Commodity Index. The second is Silver. Note how eerily similiar the two charts are.
This is the reason that I keep saying that silver is not going to go anywhere until the sentiment towards "RISK" and towards "INFLATION" changes. As long as traders are seeing the sovereign debt crisis in Europe as worsening and eventually causing a contraction in global economic growth, they are not going to be piling into silver as they did back during the days of the Federal Reserves' Quantitative Easing program.
Silver does however continue to find buying on dips into the region near $30 which is becoming a critical chart support level. As long as buyers see value in this area it should remain well supported as they will accumulate the metal during such bouts of price weakness. If the European contagion begins to worsen, this level could become vulnerable.
As investors rush back into the Dollar, it is poised for another trip to the 80 level on the USDX. If it manages a weekly close above this level, it is going to be rough going for the commodity complex. If it traders become convinced that even Germany is going to succumb to the contagion spreading across Europe, the Dollar is going to move through 80 like a hot knife through butter. If on the other hand a change of sentiment towards Europe emerges, 80 will prove to be a formidable resistance level.We will have to see where events lead us.
Note that both longer term moving averages, the 50 day and the 100 day, are now moving higher in conjunction - a bullish sign.
Keep in mind that even though the Dollar has its own set of problems, and that set is very significant, right now it is NOT THE EURO, and that is what has money flowing back into it.
This is my kind of leader!
The $1680 level is an important chart area as it has served to function both as overhead resistance and as downside support depending on the status of the gold market at the time that price has neared this area. In today's session, it is acting as a downside support level thus far holding price from dropping further as the risk trades are once again taken back off.
Should this critical level fail to stem the decline in gold, price will fall into the next band of support which is near and just above the $1640 level, a level that also coincides with the rising 150 day exponential moving average. That moving average has seen value-based buyers emerge over the last two months so we can expect it to uncover similiar buying once again should price move this low.
For gold to stem the current tide of bearishness and rattle the shorts a bit, it will need to recapture the $1710 - $1715 level for starters with a further push into the $1740 region necessary to bring in some momentum based buying.
