Gold under pressure from SPR release and abysmal Jobless claims number

What a difference a single day can make! Yesterday, gold managed to punch through $1550 and close above that level at the end of pit session trading but as the afternoon wore on, it slowly slid lower and inched closer to $1550 once again. As the market opened for early Kangaroo trading, it then fell back below $1550 and remained a tad weaker throughout early Asian trading. That all came to an abrupt end when news hit the wires that the US was releasing some 30 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

Crude oil immediately swooned falling below $90 (it has since recovered). As it did, the hedge fund algorithms kicked in and began unloading commodities across the board. If that were not enough, the Jobless Claims number reminded the entire planet why those who were filling our ears with their nauseating talking points of "Green Shoots" some months ago, should have to do mandatory community service on the Discovery Channel's, "Dirty Jobs" show. The number was terrible.

That sent the risk aversion trades into high gear and out the window went everything that did not resemble a US paper IOU or the Dollar. IN looking across my quote screens this morning, the only commodity on the planet that I can see which is currently showing green is the Cocoa market. Everything else is in the red. Time to hoard chocolate.

The result of this hedge fund carnage has been to send the CCI (Continuous Commodity Index) crashing down to major chart support just below 630 and the S&P 500 to within a few whiskers' width of the psychologically and technically significant chart support level of 1250. If the CCI and the S&P crash through those levels the Fed is going to be forced to do some sort of stimulus on the monetary front as it will signal a deflationary mindset has now gained the ascendancy. Based on my reading of Bernanke's comments yesterday, I think he left the door open for such action if they believe the need should arise.

I might add here that the oil release from the US of $30 million barrels of crude is equivalent to less than TWO DAYS TOTAL USAGE here in the US. Call me cynical but while the release was much heralded as a response to the loss of Libyan crude oil in the marketplace thanks to Mr. Obama's "kinetic military action" or non-hostile hostilities over there, I believe it is totally related to the same's poll numbers which are going down the toilet faster than an unwanted baby alligator which has gotten too big for its 55 gallon aquarium. High gasoline prices are threatening to make him a one termer (I can only hope) and what best to do but to dump some oil on the market to try to knock a dime or so off the price at the pump. Here's a new flash to the clueless one - instead of these cheap political gimmicks, stop spending money that we do not have and open the country up to domestic drilling. That would actually be a much better long term fix instead of playing political games with what is supposed to be for emergency purposes. The only emergency that I can see is his sinking poll numbers and that is no emergency as far as I am concerned but rather cause for rejoicing.

Back to gold however - the failure to extend past $1550 has sent the market back down into the former range with $1550 on top and $1520 on the bottom. Buying associated with sovereign debt fears is keeping it from sinking much below that $1520 level for the time being. ECB President Trichet today said that the risk signals from the situation in Greece are "flashing red" as far as stability in the Euro zone are concerned. That is why gold is so firm on the Continent. Earlier in the session gold had just posted another all time high when priced in British Pounds and still is very close to its all time high price in terms of the Euro. Fears of some sort of contagion spreading to the big European banks are running very high over there. As long as these fears remain downside in gold will be limited, even with the hedgies throwing everything out the window.

The HUI and XAU are both moving lower in conjunction with the weakness in the broader equity markets but thus far remain above the recent lows. The XAU currently looks to be the stronger of the two indices as the large caps are holding better than the juniors generally speaking.

The Dollar is on a tear higher but has yet to take out the 76.50 level on its chart. Until it can do that convincingly, it remains rangebound also.

I will try to get a later update on gold this afternoon after we get a chance to see how things are when the dust from all this commotion settles a bit. Heck, they knocked the old crop corn market down the limit yesterday and ran it to extended limits today but it has since rebounded well off its lows. Certain markets will respond to their fundamentals once the technical fund selling has exceeded value levels. The algorithms ALWAYS overdo it - either to the upside or to the downside.

Gold chart analysis

The FOMC release this morning basically reaffirmed what most of the market has been thinking for some time now, namely, that the economic "recovery" is proceeding at a moderate pace though "somewhat more slowly" than had previously been expected. What a surprise? It is more like "YAWN".

The translation - they will be keeping interest rates near zero for the next few months, or in their words, "an extended period of time".

They repeated that the QE2 program would come to an end this month but at this point they had no intention of actually reducing their balance sheet or selling any of the $600 billion in Treasuries which they have purchased over the last 6 months or so. What they will do however is to reinvest the proceeds from maturing Treasury bonds. That will give some stimulus but compared to the massive sum of $600 billion, amounts to a drop of water into the bucket.

Gold liked what it heard and shot higher taking out the sellers who had been stalking the $1550 level. They were forced to retreat towards $1560.

From a technical perspective, the strong move past this solid resistance level, takes the market out of the recent tight range trade bounded by $1550 on the top and supported at $1520 on the bottom. It is now poised to make a run towards $1570-$1575. Downside support moves up initially towards $1540 followed by good support near $1530.

Keep in mind that this is occuring during the summer, not a time in which one generally expects to see a very strong gold market. A grinding move higher during this time frame would set this market up for a move to a fresh all time high later this year when the seasonally stronger period of the metal arrives. This just further underscores how currency concerns are moving gold as distrust in paper currencies continues to increase. Gold is signaling investors' lack of confidence in their monetary authorities and political leaders.

By the way, Gold priced in British Pounds set another all time record high price today.

Impact from Dodd-Frank

I have fielded quite a bit of emails from people scared out of their minds because of a rash post over at a widely read website which tends to post first and think later. That is the problem with this Wild West of the Internet - too many are interested in "first scoops" and not in arriving at solid conclusions based on analysis.

The regulations which have Forex.com issuing a statement to its clients to close out their gold and silver positions affect US based Retail customers on non-regulated over the counter markets. It will not have any impact on the COMEX market or any other regulated futures markets.

If anything, this will serve to drive more business towards the Comex which is a regulated futures exchange market. The regulations are attempting to stem US-based retail investor activity in non-transparent, non-regulated over-the-counter markets.

Keep in mind that in this day and age, the more "clicks" a website gets, the higher it rises in the "ratings" and the more advertising revenue its owner gets from paid ads. This sort of thoughtless sensationalism is a perfect example of that.

Eric King interviews Jim Sinclair and Trader Dan for a special report on the mining shares

Eric King of King World News, this weekend, interviewed my good friend and legendary trader Jim Sinclair, and myself, to get our thoughts on the recent price action of the mining shares. I highly recommend that our readers take a bit of time to listen carefully to this piece. I think you will come away both enlightened and encouraged by what you hear.

http://tinyurl.com/3kubx6o

Trader Dan on King World News Weekly Metals Wrap

Click on the link below to listen to my regular weekly interview with Eric King of King World News on the Weekly Metals Wrap.

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/6/18_KWN_Weekly_Metals_Wrap.html

CME Group lowers margin requirements for Gold futures

As of the close of business this coming Monday, CME Group has lowered the margin requirement for its gold contract from $6,751 to $6,075 per contract. Maintenance Margin also moves lower from $5,001 down to $4,500.

While not a large drop, it always helps on the speculative front when margin rates are lowered.

HUI - Gold ratio reflects the return of a deflationary mindset

If one examines the ratio of the HUI/Gold you can determine whether or not a deflationary mindset or psychology is prevalent among investors/traders.

Note that when the credit crisis erupted in full force in the summer of 2008, the mining shares underperformed drastically against the price of gold as the gold shares plummeted along with the rest of the broad stock market.

It was not until the Fed announced the inception of QE1 in the fall of 2008, that the gold shares began to outperform gold. As a matter of fact, they led the market higher.

Now that the Fed has announced the end of QE2, the gold shares are seriously underperforming against the price of gold bullion as you can see by the sharp move lower in the ratio early this year.

This is the basis behind the ratio spread trade being played by the hedge fund community and why they are able to push the shares lower seemingly at will. As long as a deflation mindset is in place, the shares will underperform against bullion. Not until we get a return of inflation fears (that will come if the Fed moves ahead with some sort of additional monetary stimulus) will the mining shares outperform gold.

I have had some critics rail against me for detailing this strategy but I can tell you from a trader's perspective, it has been an effective and extremely profitable trade. It will stay in place as long as it works and makes money for those who are using it. The hedge funds are simply too large for any other market players to take them on and challenge them on this trade. Only a shift in the deflation/inflation mindset will shake them out.

If rumblings of another case of Fed action on the stimulus front begin to surface, this ratio trade will begin to turn as the smartest ones plying it will exit while they can still secure those paper profits.

In the meantime, one has to be extremely selective in which mining stocks they buy. The weaker ones will be and are the targets of the ratio trade while the stronger ones are more resistant to its effects, even though they are seeing weakness at the present time. Once the market for the shares turns, the strongest ones now will be the leaders on the way back up. Fundamentals will ultimately determine their share prices even while these technical plays are dominating at the present.

Gold holding relatively firm as its Safe Haven status comes to the forefront

With all the volatility in the markets attempting to decipher defined trends from short term price action has become a fool's game. Markets are torn between optimism that the global economy is not as bad as some have feared and worries over sovereign debt issues in Euroland, particularly Greece, which have the potential to carry a contagion effect and bleed over into that same global economy, mainly due to large bank exposure to Greek debt.

I should note however that there are several key markets that I am monitoring to try to cut through some of the uncertainty. Among those are gold, crude oil, copper and the bonds. Also, the broader measure of the commodity complex, the CCI, is most helpful in this regards.

Let's take a look at each of these key markets and see how the charts shape up and whether or not we can discern any message as to underying investor sentiment.

Starting first with the larger commodity complex, here is the CCI, Continuous Commodity Index. You will note that it has fallen back below what I consider to be a key level, namely 640, and is flirting dangerously with its chart support levels noted on the chart. A downside breach of this level which cannot be regained within the next week, should that event occur, would signal a longer term top among commodities in general and a shift back to a deflationary mindset among investors/traders. I am of the opinion that Chairman Bernanke is closely monitoring this chart and will be forced to act ( provide another round of monetary stimulus) should this break down as the current FOMC will not tolerate a deflationary mindset taking hold. We know that from reading his papers and his comments in general.

For the time being however, this chart is signaling that traders do not fear inflation at the current time but are seeing the overall global economy as slowing. Keep in mind that I am just the messenger and am reporting what the current thinking of the market is as reflected in the charts. That is the role of a trader - not imposing your view on the market but allowing the market to speak to you and attempting to interpret that speech so that you can profit accordingly.

I want to repeat here, particularly to my silver bull friends, that silver will UNDERPERFORM gold in such an environment. Silver will only outperform gold in an inflation biased environment.

Now let's take a look at the crude oil markets. I say, 'markets', because we are going to look at both WTI and at Brent. WTI is becoming less and less of a reflective market in the sense of giving us an accurate read on the value of oil in general. The reason for that is because of the nature of the oil that this contract is based on. I prefer to look at Brent crude as a better benchmark for gauging oil supply and demand but old habits die hard and therefore we want to also look at WTI.

Note on the weekly NYmex crude oil chart that the market has broken down below a horizontal support level near the $95 level. While price is still in an uptrend as it remains above the upsloping trend line, it will need to hold there as that is also the confluence of the 50 week moving average. If crude is going to hold, it should not fall below $90 or if it does, should immediately pop back up through that level. In other words, a sharp spike below that level and an upside recovery leading to a close above $90 would be okay but if it cannot recover $90, the technicals would point it lower as that would confirm a bearish flag formation with the potential for a move towards the $80 level.

Brent crude has a much stronger looking chart. It is not yet signaling a breakdown of the nature that WTI crude is and as such, I believe is a better indicator that oil demand is still relatively firm. I would have to revise that view if it closes below the $108 level and particularly if it were to then move towards $100 and not hold there. We are a long way from the $100 level however so for now this market has yet to signal a deflationary bias.

Let's now turn our attention to Copper, a very good market for gauging sentiment towards the health or lack thereof of the global economy.

I am providing both a dail chart and  weekly chart. On the daily chart, the market is in a bearish posture trading below its 50 day moving average. Instead of providing buying support as it does in a bullish trend, that average is providing a place for sellers to enter. This tells us that sentiment towards higher copper prices has shifted in favor of lower prices as we move forward. Clearly copper is signaling more of a deflationary mindset at the current time.

On the weekly chart we get a different perspective. This chart shows the copper market remaining in a longer term uptrend as it holds above both the 50 week moving average and the upsloping trendline. It is therefore not yet reflecting any deflationary mindset. That would change should if close below the red support line shown on the chart. For the inflationist mindset to be reflected detailing a shift back towards growth in the minds of investors, copper will need a pair of consecutive weekly closes above the $4.50 level. Until it does, the short term bias is down with the market moving into a level where buying should soon surface. If that buying does not surface, then copper will be voting for deflation. Again, Mr. Bernanke and company will be watching.

turning lastly to gold - its daily chart reflects the safe haven status of the metal in the midst of the uncertainty and confusion currently reigning over the markets. You can see that unlike some of the other members of the commodity complex, gold is above its 50 day moving average and holding horizontal chart support.  The market is range bound on the daily chart with a slight bias to the upside.  A drop through $1510 would dent sentiment towards the metal as it would turn the technicals bearish on this chart but as long as it holds $1480 it will not be signaling deflation. Should this market take out $1550, it will signal a move back towards inflation fears based on currency woes.

Incidentally, Gold, priced in terms of the British Pound, scored a new all time today. This is one of the reasons that in spite of the "risk off" trades that are currently in vogue, the bears are having trouble breaking it down in terms of the US Dollar at the Comex. Gold is trading as a CURRENCY and not so much as a commodity. When gold bears look at the strength in the metal when priced in terms of the other various majors, they lose conviction, even in the midst of large amounts of risk off trades while the gold bulls take heart and step up to buy.

Markets making new all time highs (even if priced in terms of another currency) are not in bearish phases - period! US centric traders do not seem to be able to understand this. For gold to enter a bearish phase, we would need to see it break down across the board, whether priced in Dollars, Euros, British Pounds, etc. The reason for this is that the surge into new highs or near all time highs reflects FEAR about currency stability in the various countries where the gold market is performing so well. That generates buying of gold as a safe haven and reveals strong demand for the metal from those quarters of the globe.