“Woe to the land whose king is a child and whose leaders are already drunk in the morning. Happy the land whose king is a nobleman, and whose leaders work hard before they feast and drink, and then only to strengthen themselves for the tasks ahead”. (Eccl 10: 16-17)


"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


To continue following Trader Dan, please sign up for Trader Dan's World at the link on the sidebar to receive a 1 month, no obligation, trial membership



Monday, August 25, 2014

Old Crop Beans Finally give up the Ghost

While it is a bit premature to say that the fun in the old crop beans has come to a close, the price action today speaks volumes. We've all known that those who were chasing beans higher were beginning to realize that there was no sound reason to pay the kinds of prices that they have been dishing out for them, when the combines have already begun rolling in the Delta. Tight-fisted holders of those old crop beans have to be aware that they were about to get crushed in a basis collapse. The deal was however, that it became a matter of not if, but WHEN, the party was going to come to an abrupt end. We might have seen it today.

Basis levels are still incredibly strong but all that means is that the cash market is doing the work of pulling that old crop out of storage to make room for the incoming harvest. There will probably still not be any big deliveries against the September contract come first notice day ( this Friday ) but that does not mean we will not see further volatility in that month. I for one would be surprised to see any deliveries given the steep discount to the spot markets in the September. However, as the delivery period moves forward, if the basis begins to do what many of us expect it to do, one might very well see some deliveries begin to emerge. We will have to wait and see. Either way,  I am beginning to think it really does not matter all that much to the futures market at this juncture. I am however, staying open-minded about this situation since it is unprecedented.

This is what makes predicting FUTURE prices and timing such an enormous waste of time. Everyone was just convinced that we would see no weakness in the September bean contract whatsoever going into the delivery period. And yet, we had a negative downside reversal day in that month posted in today's session. Whether we get any additional downside in that month remains to be seen as of yet; however, I do not think many expected to see what happened in there today happen so soon.

AS a side note - this is why people making constant dogmatic assertions about the gold or silver price should be completely ignored. They no more know where the price is going and when than does the proverbial man in the moon. The problem with too many of them is that they believe their own BS.

Back to the beans however. Here is the price chart: Look at the huge range ( nearly 70 cents from high to low). They don't call beans the widow makers for nothing.


The grains were weaker across the board today as good rains, and warm temps ( at least not excessively blazing hot ) are making for ideal finishing conditions for the crops. Also, the rains hit the areas in the Belt that were coming in a bit on the dry side. that essentially alleviates any concerns in those regions from further deterioration due to dryness issues.

In looking over the Soybeans Conditions ratings, the Good/Excellent category fell to 70% from last week's 71%. However, Illinois, Indiana and Iowa, all showed either improvements in that category or remained unchanged from the previous week's numbers. Minnesota actually improved from 64% to 66% Good/Excellent! Wisconsin added a point to that category. North Dakota jumped 3 full points. It looks to me like Kansas was the state responsible for pulling the overall national ratings down more so than any other state. It's Good/Excellent rating fell 5 full points to 48%.

I do not think of Kansas however when I think of beans so I am not sure if the market will pay any attention to the slight 1% deterioration overall. The fact that the biggest growers of beans all either improved or held steady is more important in my view.

Also, the % of the crop setting pods is at 90% compared to last year's 82% and the 5 year average of 89%.

turning to corn, this is remarkable - 73% of the crop is rated Good/Excellent compared to 72% last week. It actually improved! The thing about corn which is interesting is that as it moves closer to harvest time, the overall appearance of the plant tends to become more ragged as the energy is going into the ear, and not the leaves. That is what makes this week's rating even more impressive.
The Illinois crop actually got better, which is hard to believe given its already incredible condition. It is now rated 82% Good/Excellent up from 80% last week. Iowa held steady at 75% Good/Excellent as did Indiana at 73%. Minnesota showed a big improvement jumping to 71% from 68%.

As far as progress goes, 83% of the crop is in the dough stage compared to 67% last year and 78% over a 5 year average. The crop seems to be a bit behind when it comes to denting however as it is 35% compared to 21% last year ( ahead) but 43% (behind somewhat) for the 5 year average.

The Euro continues to fall apart as it broke below round number support near 1.3200 and looks to be on course for a test of 1.3125 - 1.3100.



The Dollar continues to look impressive on the charts. It made its first foray into resistance territory noted on the chart and then pulled back slightly but the trend still looks bullish.  This is all the more revealing when one considers that the yield on the Ten Year Treasury has been declining lately.





I put these two charts up together because I am of the view that gold is going to struggle to maintain any sort of strong, sustained move higher in this environment. The Dollar is moving higher in anticipation of higher interest rates even as the yield on the Ten Year is descending. I have no idea when the Fed might be able to actually raise rates but markets run more on expectations or perceptions than they do on CURRENT realities at times. If the big specs are becoming more and more convinced that rate hikes are on their way next year, they are going to need some other very good reason to tie up investment capital in gold, which throws of no yield and depends entirely upon capital appreciation to record any gains for its buyers.

Please do not misunderstand what I am saying here ( I can already feel the wrath of the gold cultists ). The metal will draw buying support from geopolitical or economic uncertainty but such buying in and of itself is insufficient to launch a strong, SUSTAINED bull market. That requires big speculators chasing prices higher and willing to commit to it in a big way. Right now, I see no evidence of such sentiment when it comes to gold, especially given the strength in the US Dollar and the general weakness in the overall commodity sector. Perhaps it will take place in the more distant future but as far as the shorter term horizon is concerned, gold is not in favor at the moment among those seeking capital appreciation.


Turning to the gold shares, the juniors' index is still stuck going sideways. It is having difficulty attracting any concerted buying near 45 and beyond. It looks like those who want to own the things are okay with accumulating them at this point but they are not the least bit interested in paying up for them. Again, there are very few momentum based buyers in this sector at the moment.




 I will leave you with one last chart, and it is a doozy! Fighting that powerful uptrend has been a thankless ( and often profitless ) task! Only the very quick on the draw have been able to pull much out of the short side of this market.



39 comments:

  1. every commentator worth their salt has been trying to get farmers to sell their old crop beans before today printed, and today's spread chart U/X makes it look like the end is near. rumors that the yields off those combines in the south are ballistic, and that somebody is shoving those beans into the pipeline right away.

    farmers should sell their old crop corn right now as well, as last weekend weather and the forecast for the next 10 days does look like a crop yield that will take corn to 3.10 or so (low 3's). with a normal 2.6 bean/corn ratio that puts nov beans into a low $9.00 range.

    8/25/1987 was the stock market high before the '87 crash, so a 'gann style' anniversary date today. also a new moon today and the stock market has been going up since the last full moon on 8/11.
    as an old timer (about 77) have seen many turns off full/new moons in stock market or in precious metals or even in ags over the years! the SP and GC turns were normally opposite in the old days of the inverse relationship.

    some quote systems just bumped the long bond ZB front month to dec. which happened to close last week at 139-00. the july swing high people wanted to buy a pull-back to in the sept contract is 139-00. it's interesting in the futures with continuation charts and diff. month charts.

    metals futures options expire tomorrow, also have seen beaucoup bottoms and tops made in futures off 'op-ex' and 'last trading day.' one explanation is the 'big boyz' finish their business on those days.

    Cheers!


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Bob, if the corn, like I think goes to 3, then the bean goes into the 8's easy. Rain and temps are and have been perfect and do not matter anymore, as crops are made. Only thing the bulls can hang their hats on is early frost bullshit scares.

      Tight old crops is baked into the cake so much I am sick of it. Just like China, who owns all the cotton, copper, and beans at the top. She has a chronic water problem for sure, and that is why she will always need to come to SA or our Midwest in order to feed the people and keep societal unrest from festering and erupting. Quite a task for sure.

      January sell off in stks was a fake out and I wonder what gives for the next 2 historically bearish months will bring. Seems like the politicians who I have never heard of are beating the war drums again. Sad. No interest in pm's unless they bounce and I can sell a couple freckles higher.

      Delete
  2. What a powerful move on the S&P. Not getting nervous until we hit 2250 or until the Trend finally reverses. Until then it is still a Buy.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Like I have Said previously Danny

    Stick with the grains / Ags - you do an excellent job

    The metals make you much too emotional

    Kind regards

    50 yank

    ReplyDelete
  4. The Gloom and Doomers and Preppers lost out on a once in a lifetime opportunity to "Buy and Hold" the S & P 500 and QQQ for nearly 6 years without even breaking a sweat.

    In fact more money has been LOST by these scroom screechers in the last 5 year than in any time in history, due to attempts to:

    - Short common stocks (1987 crash right around the corner!)

    - Short bonds (any minute now, interest rates are going to explode!)

    - Long gold (Gold to $5,000, COMEX and LBMA will meltdown I swear!)

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hubert, you got filled on your euro. Steve was inaccurate when he described you as being hot. You are on fire. And from what I see about your risk reward models and other tools, you can stay that way for a very very long time. Maybe even forever.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Arnie.

      I will try to prove you wrong with my latest short position on SP500 :)
      Most important is not to be right all the time (which is impossible even with the best indicators) but to quickly stop the bleeding when you are wrong, and let your profit grow when you are right (most people do the opposite, would you believe it? It's psychological maybe. They remain stuck on their losses, or even add up to it (gold bull community, does it ring a bell?) in the hope to say someday : see? I was right!...they are afraid to admit their initial decision was a mistake, as if there was some shame about it, which is absurd. The shame is on maintaining and reinforcing a losing position).

      I'm lucky to have posted some successful positions here live, but be sure many real traders are better than me. I went long on the SP at 1900 but let go the whole position at 1950. I went long on WTI but for one day, on a counter trend hint, and made less than 2 $ on that move, while some probably shorted at 100+ and made the move down.
      All I know is it is more because of money management and risk/reward considerations that I manage to earn a bit on those markets, than because I am "on fire".
      I'm pretty sure most people can do just as I do on long term time units by learning about T.A and trading.

      Delete
    2. All the s and p will prove, assuming that it doesnt yield a profit, is that when you do trades that dont fit into the category of the others that you have posted, but more like, its a bit too high and I will try a short, its a lot less likely to be profitable then the other ones. But it could still be profitable. And it probably will be.So this will not be a case of proven to be wrong. You will have to do better!!! You know I like your style lot. And on the oil trade, it was the only $2 up move oil had in a long time. I saw the opening the next day. It never went below 95.35, and went straight up. Only very good indicators could have called that trade. It wasnt a flip of the coin kind of trade. Those are reserved for KWN viewers.

      Delete
    3. I have been meaning to comment about that first silver trade at 19 for a long time. I have been a trader for many years. I think ones comfort level and money management are very important to succeed. And the risk reward factor is important. But it doesnt guarantee that the trade will work. So when the silver, that time, after having got to 19 that day, managed never to go below 19 the next day, I thought to myself, his indicators are top notch. And it has been proven with all the trades you have posted.Even the copper short. Well, I just wanted to mention that. Its nice.

      Delete
    4. Thanks again Arnie.
      Honestly, most of the indicators I'm using are basic.
      Maybe it's the combination of them, plus a bit of "feeling" developed after a few years of monitoring markets when I had the time, sometimes intraday, which help me.
      I'd say one of the most useful ones is the bollinger bands on several time units.
      At the moment I have a warning about the trend on Eur Usd because we are outside simple bollinger bands on the daily time unit, and that the stochastic momentum index, another basic tool, is reaching lows, especially on the 2day time unit.
      Then again, most I know about T.A, I owe it to other traders, so I'm only trying to share the little I retained from them, not to teach anything.
      Maybe if I became serious about it, and a full time trader for a while with real significant money, I'd feel more confident. For now, I feel more like a messenger that T.A does work and can help anyone a bit serious to make a bit of money, without even having to spend their life behind a screen.
      I don't want to look too "modest", I'm just saying that most I know, I learnt from others who know much better than I do, and for sure make much better ROI than me.

      It's a shame Dan is not represented at KWN weekly metal's wrap because he was a very useful voice in the dark there, for those willing to listen, without an agenda, and tempering the message of the gold perma bulls.

      Delete
  6. Oh, by the way......

    "Long Term Systemic & Economic Instability" is already here.

    In the gold and silver mining sector.

    And the "Financial System Apocalypse" has already happened.

    Among the hedge funds betting on the CRB Index rising and hyperinflation and the collapsing U.S. Dollar.

    Just ask Eric Sprott.

    That poor guy is fighting a daily battle from angry investors demanding redemptions.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. All the guy has to say is " I have nothing to say about gold at all until it takes out 1540". Period. And stop posting until that time.

      Delete
  7. I don't think Mr Sprott needs you to count his money

    ReplyDelete
  8. Eur-Usd : my theoretical target for a bounce is in the 1.3150 area, because I am in love with my fibonacci retracements on the Eur Usd chart. This week, I was thinking that 1.3180 may be the lows because of the red line heading down on the weekly time scale. Let's see. Probably we''ll hit 1.3150 next week, but it is still hard for me to keep long on a winning position without securing some kind of profit, so I bought back 1/3 of my short at 1.3182 indeed. I'm preciously keeping the remaining 2/3 as my final target is 1.28 area.
    Here is the chart :

    http://i57.tinypic.com/k15duf.jpg

    The reason I'm making 1/3 profit now is :
    - we are near the fibo level at 1.3153
    - we are completely outside the inf bollinger band daily
    - we are very close from the orange line

    So...maybe a quick short covering bounce towards 1.33 +?


    Regarding SP500, only the very quick on the draw indeed! :)
    The real resistance I can see is the weekly top bollinger band near 2020. Before that the top bollinger band on a daily time unit, and the mlh sup of the upwards andrews fork on monthly time unit around 2010. Yawn. It is very difficult to put a stop loss under 2020 here.
    I hope SP will manage to go ahead of itself on the way up and give me some signals of reversal on the very short term time unit so that I can make a real short position near 2010-2015. Market will decide.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I put a limit short order at 1.3335 on the eur/usd to sell back the 1/3 bought at 1.3182, just in case. It's the level of ma20 daily within 2/3 days and also recent bottoms i.e horizontal support which is now resistance. We'll see.

      Delete
  9. Dan - great post as always. That chart on the S&P is simply jaw dropping. If only I had that on me in 2008/2009 when I was in grad school. I would have been all the more richer for it, but alas, none of us can see the future ahead with certainty.

    Hubert - your contributions are great here. Technical analysis is a great tool for a trader, but I think what may be working for you best is the time you've had to watch the markets and get a feel for them, as you've mentioned. One really does develop a "sense" for price action after keeping an eye on a particular underlying security for some time.

    I agree with your assessment of the SPY as well. If it does manage to make a push to 210/215, that would be a good risk/reward short via long dated options. We have yet to backtest the breakout level from late 2013 when we overcame the 2008 highs. I wonder if this may be in store before the next Presidential election in the US. Who knows - the world is a mess at the moment, and although we can only trade the charts as we see them, one can't help but wonder what kind of "black swan" event is next to rattle the markets.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Correction: "We have yet to backtest the breakout level from early 2013 when we overcame the 2007 highs."

      Delete
  10. This really looks ugly and imho worth worrying :(
    If we are headed that way, and people everywhere don't react, it's going to get really bad.

    http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-russian-aggression-prevention-act-rapa-a-direct-path-to-nuclear-war-with-russia/5397171

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If for the most part we accept the validity of this writer, then, this is more than scary!

      Delete
  11. Standard Chartered are calling the bottom in beans https://research.standardchartered.com/ResearchDocuments/Pages/ResearchArticle.aspx?R=121736

    ReplyDelete
  12. Hubert, what they say about cockroaches is true, as they are beginning to multiply here.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Ding, Ding, Ding, Ding!!!

    XRT and XLY now both printing fresh, new, world, record highs.

    Poor Gerald Celente still locked down inside his bunker selling gloom and doom newletters, while Wall St. parties.

    ReplyDelete
  14. thank God for the StandardChartereds of the world; I needed somebody to sell my beans and corn to; keep it up boys

    ReplyDelete
  15. looks like the PTB are getting ready to jack things up in Syria; they have the Chicago Boy in what of his lamest speaks yet in their most fable explanations yet. pretty sad

    ReplyDelete
  16. During the tech bubble on one of the big chat rooms there was a guy who would make fun of all the "true believers". The reason he did that was he knew what was coming and no it wasn't different this time. You guys remind me of the tech true believers and I find it funny to watch you mock people like Eric Sprott because he underestimated how corrupt and captured the financial system. My guess is that like the old salt on the techie chat room that Mr. Sprott will have the last laugh.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dr. Don;
      You are correct about Sprott having the last laugh. He is laughing at all of the people he deceived with his price predictions of gold north of $2000 and silver north of $50 this year.

      You still refuse to believe what your own eyes are telling you, namely sinking commodity prices, a rising dollar and an interest rate environment which favors the Dollar at the expense of the other majors.

      Frankly, I have grown sick, tired and disgusted of people such as yourself who continue to blame poor investment choices on "a corrupt and captured financial system".

      Believe what you want, but please stop coming here to my site and polluting it with that insipid nonsense.

      Delete
    2. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

      Delete
    3. Eric and Bo Polny still have 4 months left in the year for their predictions to come true.

      But the way the yellow barron has been trading lately I would say 950 seems more likely the probability by year end.

      If that were to transpire guys like Bo, Eric and "gold will be making a moonshot this year" Peter Schiff will lose tons of credibility.

      Delete
    4. I agree with 50 yank, Dan you really are starting to just sound like a pr*ck. Nobody has all the answers, and too many folks here just think they are just so right....and they are, until they aren't

      Delete
    5. Your price of 950 has been duly noted

      Delete
    6. doctormyeyes and 50 yank;

      you are on notice... all subsequent posts of yours are going to be deleted.
      I have had my fill of nasty emails from you gold cultists in my personal inbox and thus have no patience for any of you here polluting my site with your defense of these various gold and silver hucksters who enrich themselves at the expense of the unsuspecting and naïve.

      Delete
    7. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

      Delete
    8. Sprott has a long term window that stupefies most traders. What is the trend outside the short term noise? The trend is resource scarcity, if anyone says differently they are ostriches. Inflation is running wild, yet traders and analysts like Dan always debate whether inflation will kick in or not, to me that is really quite funny. Lets take a 15 year window of some basic commodities, and I'm not including foodstuffs, that would be even more unfair....

      Nickel 1999 - $2/lb today $ 8.45
      Copper 1999 - $.65/lb today $3.22
      Tin 1999 - $2.25/lb today $ 10.20
      Lead 1999 - $.22/lb today $1.05
      Oil 1999 - $25/bbl today $100
      Coal 1999 - $30/st today $59
      Molybdenum 1999 - $3/lb today $13
      Platinum 1999 - $425/ozt today $1420
      Palladium 1999 - $300/ozt today $880

      A few notables did not inflate - natural gas prices have been mitigated by shale, and uranium by industry growth concerns. Overall, as a broad market commodities are roaring, stocks are roaring, inflation is roaring, and average wages are whimpering. The world population is growing, demand from Asia is rising, even during a global 'slow down' small percentages of growth as billions of Asians increase consumption is substantial.

      I trade and I invest, both have a place, but this ostrich behaviour as regards inflation and commodities being weak is really too much.

      Cheers

      Delete
    9. I also wonder for how long, and how many times the Fed needs to proclaim they are raising rates followed by doing exactly nothing, until people wise up to the fact that rates will not be willingly increased. They can't be, there is too much leverage in the system. Rates will not be increased by the Fed, if anything negative rates will occur to increase money velocity. The CFR just released a paper basically stating - 'Central Banks Should Hand Consumers Cash Directly'.

      Hard assets, and good companies are the life boats here.

      Cheers

      Delete
  17. http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2014/08/dollar-back-up-euro-back-down.html?showComment=1408390238595#c4957756322214754655

    GWPH breaking out today after tight consolidation. The chart is very sexy. May she seduce you.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Some Innocent Geopolitical Fun

    I read with some concern today's report in the South China Morning Post - a Hong Kong newspaper, generally ill-disposed towards mainland China - that Taiwan scrambles fighter jets after PLA spy planes 'repeatedly' breach airspace. http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1580792/taiwan-scrambles-fighter-jets-after-pla-spy-planes-repeatedly-breach

    Now, I generally consider myself to be fairly wised-up on Chinese affairs - and tensions in the South China Sea in particular - and, given that we are going to see all hell break loose in the China-Taiwan relationship between 2016 -18 - this article troubled me ........ until I saw the graphic

    Last year China declared an Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) and the USA's immediate - entirely adult - response was to fly two B-52 bombers straight into it, unannounced as a means of reducing tensions in the area. The stock narrative was, of course, that this was yet further evidence of "Chinese aggression" (which is the same as Russian aggression, but yellow) but not only do the USA, Japan and Korea also have their own ADIZ's, it turns out that the whole affair was a total stitch-up from start to finish, and the Japanese in particular had been aware of the situation for 3 years or more beforehand http://www.globalresearch.ca/china-informed-japan-of-air-defense-zone-plan-adiz-in-2010/5363697

    However, I had never twigged the Taiwan dimension; remember, if you will, that the infamous "Nine-Dotted Line" which maps out China's territorial claims in the South China Sea predates the establishment of modern-day Communist (boo! hiss!) China, and was set out in 1947 by the Nationalist KMT, who currently run Taiwan (not an especially nice crew, as it happens: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Terror_%28Taiwan%29 and responsible for the longest period of Martial Law in 20th century history). To this day, Taiwan asserts precisely the same territorial claims as the PRC, but of course, the Taiwan lot are (for the time being) "Our Bastards" and its best to overlook the fact that, in respect of the Diaoyu Islands, it's actually the Chinese Coastguard who have been in direct military confrontation with the Japanese, and not their Chinese counterparts http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2208305/Senkaku-Islands-Japan-Taiwan-boats-attack-spray.html

    So, news that Taiwan had scrambled two of its aging F5 Northrop fighters to intercept those pesky Chinese not only seemed to be a bit of an escalation, but also rather conveniently timed to distract attention from the slightly awkward fact that some Chinese stunt ace has been buzzing a US spy plane operating entirely innocently inside China's 200 mile EEZ. (As you do - look out over Long Island, Baja California or Key West, and the air is as thick as flies with Chinese reconnaissance aircraft, but that's another story....

    but then I saw the graphic: https://www.scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/236w/public/2014/08/27/885d7393af1d78444884eac564c04da4.jpg?itok=9o2jhhqk

    from which it appears that Taiwan's ADIZ extends right across most of southern Mainland China; a plane could take off from e.g. Xiamen airport (as I myself have done on numerous occasions) and find itself being MH-17'd by some trigger-happy Taiwanese hero, and that would be just fine and dandy... I wonder why this ironic situation has never been pointed out by Western media (who have tended to concentrate on the evil evil Chinese ADIZ instead)?

    Mark my words, things are going to get very, very ugly indeed in Taiwan from 2016-8 onwards - ably assisted by Queen Hillary - and this kind of selective and conveniently forgetful news coverage is likely to increase over time. I just find it kinda cute, and have just decided to announce my own mini-ADIZ in the airspace immediately above my balcony: if I listen carefully, I can just make out the sound of the approaching B-52's right now, in the background

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. background

      Chinese officers told Japan about expanded air defense zone in 2010


      Senior officers in the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) informed Japanese government officials of China's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) covering the Senkaku Islands in Okinawa Prefecture all the way back in 2010, according to secret documents obtained by the Mainichi Shimbun.

      According to the documents -- the minutes of an informal meeting between the PLA officers and Japanese government officials at the China Foundation for International and Strategic Studies in Beijing on May 14-15, 2010 -- China had already established the ADIZ but had yet to make it public. Furthermore, the zone presented to the Japanese officials is almost identical to that declared by the Chinese government in November 2013. The revelations indicate that China had been doing the groundwork for the declaration of the ADIZ for at least three and a half years before its official announcement.

      The minutes show that a Chinese navy commodore with the PLA's naval warfare research institute not only revealed the existence of the ADIZ, but also stated that it roughly matched what China claimed as its exclusive economic zone and continental shelf -- one way to define a nation's ocean borders. The commodore clearly explained that the Senkakus were inside this zone.

      The PLAN commodore furthermore stated that the Chinese and Japanese ADIZ "overlap by about 100 nautical miles," or 185 kilometers, and suggested the Chinese air force and Japan's Air Self-Defense Force work out rules to prevent accidental clashes in the overlapping airspace.

      According to the minutes, a brigadier general with the PLA's Academy of Military Science -- China's highest-level military research institute -- also asked the Japanese officials, "What shall we do about China's and Japan's overlapping ADIZ?" and made the same proposal as the commodore.

      The inclusion of the Senkakus in China's ADIZ could very well force Japan off its standard position on the Senkaku Island issue, namely that there is no territorial dispute. As such, a Japanese Defense Ministry official at the meeting told the Chinese officers, "China has not announced this ADIZ to the international community, so it's impossible to say where our air defense zones overlap. As such, I cannot make any further comment."

      In May 2009, a year before the Beijing meeting, China submitted a tentative application to the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf to extend China's continental shelf beyond the standard 200 nautical miles (about 370 kilometers) from its coastline. China submitted a formal application in December 2012, which if granted would recognize Chinese suzerainty over a stretch of ocean corresponding roughly to the extent of its ADIZ.

      In response to this series of moves, Japan's Self-Defense Forces have stepped up surveillance activities in the area. Japan was furthermore aware that the PLA National Defense University and National University of Defense Technology -- which formulate China's defense policy with regards to Japan -- began final preparations in early 2013 for the announcement of the ADIZ.

      The informal May 2010 announcement was titled the "Japan-China security issue investigation conference." The Japanese delegation was headed by former Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobuo Ishihara and included then prime ministerial aide Satoshi Arai and a number of former administrative vice ministers. Civil servants with the foreign and defense ministries participated in the discussions as "observers."

      The Chinese group was led by former vice foreign minister Wang Yingfan, and included officers from the PLA National Defense University and National University of Defense Technology, among other military institutions.


      January 01, 2014 (Mainichi Japan) - since deleted, of course, but referred to in numerous other web links

      http://mainichi.jp/

      Delete
    2. "The stock narrative was, of course, that this was yet further evidence of "Chinese aggression" (which is the same as Russian aggression, but yellow) "

      And the sad thing is that the vast majority of western people are simply buying all the crap they hear on TV, radio, etc...
      Divide and conquer, blunt propaganda are not tools of the last centuries.
      They keep working, because people want to be stupid and are lazy to do their own due diligence.
      Populations are conditioned now to think they will be the innocent victims on the good side, forced to defend themselves from the imminent invasion of the red/yellow devils.
      Maybe Robin Williams saw it all coming? (come to think of it, would you kill yourself with a belt?? Is it not a bit like killing yourself with 3 backstabs of knife and 2 gunshots in the head? anyway, the police is doing its job).
      Anyhow, those are really sad times.
      Stupidy seems to be spreading faster than Ebola.

      Delete
  19. Bottom line is this:

    Vast fortunes have been made the last 5+ years buying paper speculations, antique cars, art, wine, etc.

    Vast fortunes have been lost the last 5+ years by betting on:

    - Gold and silver prices too the moon.
    - Dollar collapse
    - Stock market crash
    - Bond market dislocation
    - Hyperinflation
    - Peak Oil
    - World War III

    ReplyDelete

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.