tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post7837870869580149408..comments2024-02-10T02:18:27.240-08:00Comments on Trader Dan's Market Views: Old Crop Beans Finally give up the GhostTrader Danhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comBlogger37125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-61581641568906206162014-08-28T18:55:59.997-07:002014-08-28T18:55:59.997-07:00Bottom line is this:
Vast fortunes have been made...Bottom line is this:<br /><br />Vast fortunes have been made the last 5+ years buying paper speculations, antique cars, art, wine, etc.<br /><br />Vast fortunes have been lost the last 5+ years by betting on:<br /><br />- Gold and silver prices too the moon.<br />- Dollar collapse<br />- Stock market crash<br />- Bond market dislocation<br />- Hyperinflation<br />- Peak Oil<br />- World War IIIMarkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13068811838777958318noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-88469051676167857562014-08-26T20:54:08.491-07:002014-08-26T20:54:08.491-07:00"The stock narrative was, of course, that thi..."The stock narrative was, of course, that this was yet further evidence of "Chinese aggression" (which is the same as Russian aggression, but yellow) "<br /><br />And the sad thing is that the vast majority of western people are simply buying all the crap they hear on TV, radio, etc...<br />Divide and conquer, blunt propaganda are not tools of the last centuries.<br />They keep working, because people want to be stupid and are lazy to do their own due diligence.<br />Populations are conditioned now to think they will be the innocent victims on the good side, forced to defend themselves from the imminent invasion of the red/yellow devils.<br />Maybe Robin Williams saw it all coming? (come to think of it, would you kill yourself with a belt?? Is it not a bit like killing yourself with 3 backstabs of knife and 2 gunshots in the head? anyway, the police is doing its job).<br />Anyhow, those are really sad times.<br />Stupidy seems to be spreading faster than Ebola.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-9301224350293887722014-08-26T18:25:25.754-07:002014-08-26T18:25:25.754-07:00I also wonder for how long, and how many times the...I also wonder for how long, and how many times the Fed needs to proclaim they are raising rates followed by doing exactly nothing, until people wise up to the fact that rates will not be willingly increased. They can't be, there is too much leverage in the system. Rates will not be increased by the Fed, if anything negative rates will occur to increase money velocity. The CFR just released a paper basically stating - 'Central Banks Should Hand Consumers Cash Directly'.<br /><br />Hard assets, and good companies are the life boats here.<br /><br />CheersAngelohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07067735191127041901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-87476150430339334762014-08-26T18:08:18.884-07:002014-08-26T18:08:18.884-07:00Sprott has a long term window that stupefies most ...Sprott has a long term window that stupefies most traders. What is the trend outside the short term noise? The trend is resource scarcity, if anyone says differently they are ostriches. Inflation is running wild, yet traders and analysts like Dan always debate whether inflation will kick in or not, to me that is really quite funny. Lets take a 15 year window of some basic commodities, and I'm not including foodstuffs, that would be even more unfair....<br /><br />Nickel 1999 - $2/lb today $ 8.45<br />Copper 1999 - $.65/lb today $3.22<br />Tin 1999 - $2.25/lb today $ 10.20<br />Lead 1999 - $.22/lb today $1.05<br />Oil 1999 - $25/bbl today $100<br />Coal 1999 - $30/st today $59<br />Molybdenum 1999 - $3/lb today $13<br />Platinum 1999 - $425/ozt today $1420<br />Palladium 1999 - $300/ozt today $880<br /><br />A few notables did not inflate - natural gas prices have been mitigated by shale, and uranium by industry growth concerns. Overall, as a broad market commodities are roaring, stocks are roaring, inflation is roaring, and average wages are whimpering. The world population is growing, demand from Asia is rising, even during a global 'slow down' small percentages of growth as billions of Asians increase consumption is substantial. <br /><br />I trade and I invest, both have a place, but this ostrich behaviour as regards inflation and commodities being weak is really too much.<br /><br />CheersAngelohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07067735191127041901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-11900454700113455832014-08-26T17:45:39.385-07:002014-08-26T17:45:39.385-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.50yankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00410766959486976574noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-42138829866042983202014-08-26T17:40:14.553-07:002014-08-26T17:40:14.553-07:00doctormyeyes and 50 yank;
you are on notice... al...doctormyeyes and 50 yank;<br /><br />you are on notice... all subsequent posts of yours are going to be deleted. <br />I have had my fill of nasty emails from you gold cultists in my personal inbox and thus have no patience for any of you here polluting my site with your defense of these various gold and silver hucksters who enrich themselves at the expense of the unsuspecting and naïve.<br /><br />Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-52294290660340617132014-08-26T17:31:44.980-07:002014-08-26T17:31:44.980-07:00Your price of 950 has been duly noted Your price of 950 has been duly noted 50yankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00410766959486976574noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-4939398921785247102014-08-26T17:29:13.654-07:002014-08-26T17:29:13.654-07:00I agree with 50 yank, Dan you really are starting ...I agree with 50 yank, Dan you really are starting to just sound like a pr*ck. Nobody has all the answers, and too many folks here just think they are just so right....and they are, until they aren'tdoctormyeyeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08856847420080802899noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-58007524322164449252014-08-26T17:25:17.151-07:002014-08-26T17:25:17.151-07:00Eric and Bo Polny still have 4 months left in the ...Eric and Bo Polny still have 4 months left in the year for their predictions to come true.<br /><br />But the way the yellow barron has been trading lately I would say 950 seems more likely the probability by year end.<br /><br />If that were to transpire guys like Bo, Eric and "gold will be making a moonshot this year" Peter Schiff will lose tons of credibility. The Prophet Elijahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04786387211895954719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-71431758925028340742014-08-26T17:13:50.473-07:002014-08-26T17:13:50.473-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.50yankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00410766959486976574noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-71491778526865202842014-08-26T16:06:43.693-07:002014-08-26T16:06:43.693-07:00Dr. Don;
You are correct about Sprott having the l...Dr. Don;<br />You are correct about Sprott having the last laugh. He is laughing at all of the people he deceived with his price predictions of gold north of $2000 and silver north of $50 this year.<br /><br />You still refuse to believe what your own eyes are telling you, namely sinking commodity prices, a rising dollar and an interest rate environment which favors the Dollar at the expense of the other majors.<br /><br />Frankly, I have grown sick, tired and disgusted of people such as yourself who continue to blame poor investment choices on "a corrupt and captured financial system".<br /><br />Believe what you want, but please stop coming here to my site and polluting it with that insipid nonsense.<br /><br />Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-45353377080440105932014-08-26T15:30:03.092-07:002014-08-26T15:30:03.092-07:00http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2014/08/dolla...http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2014/08/dollar-back-up-euro-back-down.html?showComment=1408390238595#c4957756322214754655<br /><br />GWPH breaking out today after tight consolidation. The chart is very sexy. May she seduce you. Bobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11549367655220089014noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-16728432604475367672014-08-26T14:57:50.141-07:002014-08-26T14:57:50.141-07:00During the tech bubble on one of the big chat room...During the tech bubble on one of the big chat rooms there was a guy who would make fun of all the "true believers". The reason he did that was he knew what was coming and no it wasn't different this time. You guys remind me of the tech true believers and I find it funny to watch you mock people like Eric Sprott because he underestimated how corrupt and captured the financial system. My guess is that like the old salt on the techie chat room that Mr. Sprott will have the last laugh.Dr. Donhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12381791630021634428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-47426544069784513112014-08-26T14:32:22.470-07:002014-08-26T14:32:22.470-07:00looks like the PTB are getting ready to jack thing...looks like the PTB are getting ready to jack things up in Syria; they have the Chicago Boy in what of his lamest speaks yet in their most fable explanations yet. pretty sadAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15820220635483947518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-33624138829842335712014-08-26T12:52:55.721-07:002014-08-26T12:52:55.721-07:00thank God for the StandardChartereds of the world;...thank God for the StandardChartereds of the world; I needed somebody to sell my beans and corn to; keep it up boysAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15820220635483947518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-79598332710635202522014-08-26T10:22:55.589-07:002014-08-26T10:22:55.589-07:00Ding, Ding, Ding, Ding!!!
XRT and XLY now both pr...Ding, Ding, Ding, Ding!!!<br /><br />XRT and XLY now both printing fresh, new, world, record highs.<br /><br />Poor Gerald Celente still locked down inside his bunker selling gloom and doom newletters, while Wall St. parties.Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13068811838777958318noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-7480845613617476182014-08-26T04:20:07.708-07:002014-08-26T04:20:07.708-07:00Hubert, what they say about cockroaches is true, a...Hubert, what they say about cockroaches is true, as they are beginning to multiply here.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15820220635483947518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-75982903851449620402014-08-26T04:18:14.098-07:002014-08-26T04:18:14.098-07:00If for the most part we accept the validity of thi...If for the most part we accept the validity of this writer, then, this is more than scary!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15820220635483947518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-85265074564170853552014-08-26T01:17:02.379-07:002014-08-26T01:17:02.379-07:00Standard Chartered are calling the bottom in beans...Standard Chartered are calling the bottom in beans https://research.standardchartered.com/ResearchDocuments/Pages/ResearchArticle.aspx?R=121736PostcolonialBrithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12530753879569768458noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-67623832556570721922014-08-25T23:29:44.762-07:002014-08-25T23:29:44.762-07:00This really looks ugly and imho worth worrying :(
...This really looks ugly and imho worth worrying :(<br />If we are headed that way, and people everywhere don't react, it's going to get really bad.<br /><br />http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-russian-aggression-prevention-act-rapa-a-direct-path-to-nuclear-war-with-russia/5397171Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-2811094426309912722014-08-25T22:11:08.361-07:002014-08-25T22:11:08.361-07:00Correction: "We have yet to backtest the brea...Correction: "We have yet to backtest the breakout level from early 2013 when we overcame the 2007 highs." <br />Syncubatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01971209693089750050noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-75567542185129043942014-08-25T22:06:56.654-07:002014-08-25T22:06:56.654-07:00Dan - great post as always. That chart on the S&am...Dan - great post as always. That chart on the S&P is simply jaw dropping. If only I had that on me in 2008/2009 when I was in grad school. I would have been all the more richer for it, but alas, none of us can see the future ahead with certainty.<br /><br />Hubert - your contributions are great here. Technical analysis is a great tool for a trader, but I think what may be working for you best is the time you've had to watch the markets and get a feel for them, as you've mentioned. One really does develop a "sense" for price action after keeping an eye on a particular underlying security for some time.<br /><br />I agree with your assessment of the SPY as well. If it does manage to make a push to 210/215, that would be a good risk/reward short via long dated options. We have yet to backtest the breakout level from late 2013 when we overcame the 2008 highs. I wonder if this may be in store before the next Presidential election in the US. Who knows - the world is a mess at the moment, and although we can only trade the charts as we see them, one can't help but wonder what kind of "black swan" event is next to rattle the markets. Syncubatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01971209693089750050noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-86961238373594309322014-08-25T21:38:53.893-07:002014-08-25T21:38:53.893-07:00Thanks again Arnie.
Honestly, most of the indicato...Thanks again Arnie.<br />Honestly, most of the indicators I'm using are basic.<br />Maybe it's the combination of them, plus a bit of "feeling" developed after a few years of monitoring markets when I had the time, sometimes intraday, which help me.<br />I'd say one of the most useful ones is the bollinger bands on several time units. <br />At the moment I have a warning about the trend on Eur Usd because we are outside simple bollinger bands on the daily time unit, and that the stochastic momentum index, another basic tool, is reaching lows, especially on the 2day time unit.<br />Then again, most I know about T.A, I owe it to other traders, so I'm only trying to share the little I retained from them, not to teach anything. <br />Maybe if I became serious about it, and a full time trader for a while with real significant money, I'd feel more confident. For now, I feel more like a messenger that T.A does work and can help anyone a bit serious to make a bit of money, without even having to spend their life behind a screen.<br />I don't want to look too "modest", I'm just saying that most I know, I learnt from others who know much better than I do, and for sure make much better ROI than me.<br /><br />It's a shame Dan is not represented at KWN weekly metal's wrap because he was a very useful voice in the dark there, for those willing to listen, without an agenda, and tempering the message of the gold perma bulls.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-91807808460442420562014-08-25T20:33:21.986-07:002014-08-25T20:33:21.986-07:00I put a limit short order at 1.3335 on the eur/usd...I put a limit short order at 1.3335 on the eur/usd to sell back the 1/3 bought at 1.3182, just in case. It's the level of ma20 daily within 2/3 days and also recent bottoms i.e horizontal support which is now resistance. We'll see.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-58007371049414958202014-08-25T20:14:12.505-07:002014-08-25T20:14:12.505-07:00I have been meaning to comment about that first si...I have been meaning to comment about that first silver trade at 19 for a long time. I have been a trader for many years. I think ones comfort level and money management are very important to succeed. And the risk reward factor is important. But it doesnt guarantee that the trade will work. So when the silver, that time, after having got to 19 that day, managed never to go below 19 the next day, I thought to myself, his indicators are top notch. And it has been proven with all the trades you have posted.Even the copper short. Well, I just wanted to mention that. Its nice.arniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17597016551120682781noreply@blogger.com