Oddly enough, the hedgies made a big push into silver in early June of this year so much so that they managed to build the largest net long position that they have had in nearly 4 years.
Look at the collapse in those net long positions of the hedge funds and compare that to the above price chart in the second week of July of this year. Out they went and as they did, down went the price of silver. As said many times here - large speculators drive markets.
Don't worry however because we are assured from various precious metal dealer commercials that a certain billionaire fund manager has predicted that silver prices "go north of $50 this year because China and India are trying to corner the silver market".
All I can say to that is it is one tall order! With 4 four months left in the year, inflation expectations had better change in one big hurry! Again, it is so tragic that people will run out and spend their hard-earned money and precious investment capital on investments touted by those talking their book instead of doing some hard-nosed, objective analysis of the markets.
When one looks at the various commodity sector indices ( I am currently using the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index) they are hard-pressed to find the least bit of inflation in tangibles. With the Dollar beginning to surge higher, and with the entire commodity complex under selling pressure, making the case for sharply higher silver prices is a fool's errand at the moment.
Can things change in that regards? Sure they can! The one thing about markets is that they are always changing. For the time being however, one must respect the charts and right now the charts are saying that the notion of $50 silver before 2014 comes to an end is a quaint fairy tale, without some sort of stupendous event occurring. Such claims may work to sell silver to the naïve and unsuspecting while enriching those whose main source of income is derived from ties to the metal, but they do nothing but discredit such carnival barkers in the eyes of objective observers.
I do not have the words to properly describe the disdain I feel when hearing these ridiculous commercials or when reading articles advocating heavy investment into the grey metal. The same people have been singing from the same song book for nearly 3 1/2 years now and have been utterly and completely wrong. One would think that shame and embarrassment would be enough to silence them but no, it goes on and on and on, hardly skipping a beat.
Here's the prognosis from the chart and let's leave it at that for now:
The metal is making a series of lower highs on the weekly chart while continuing to find buyers between $18.50 and $18.00. So far that support is intact. If one is inclined to own physical silver, it would make sense to look for opportunities to acquire the metal if it revisits those levels again. However, be prepared to sit on those holdings for some time without much in the way of overhead gains UNLESS the metal can burst through the $24 level and stay there at the end of a trading week. That would be the first sign that things might be changing in regards to silver sentiment.
Keep in mind that markets can often sit for long periods of time in trading ranges, moving back and forth, or up and down and essentially going nowhere as they mark time. Silver could be carving out a range along those lines or the metal could fall through its lower support level and actually begin another leg lower. I honestly do not know what it will do in the future - guess what? Neither does anyone else. They can talk confidently about it but the simple truth is that unless they can foresee conditions across a broad variety of inputs a year out from now ( or a month or two years or whatever), they are just guessing, no matter how dogmatic that they might be about it.
Watch the charts instead. They are your friend and will let you know what the metal wants to do. Ignore the carnival barkers, the hucksters, the flim-flam artists with the extravagant headlines meant to regale you and think for yourself. Trading/investment is hard and demanding work - it requires a tremendous dedication to your craft and endless hours researching, comparing, back-testing, analyzing, etc. to be successful. Ignore the impulse to rush out and throw your money into some investment because someone with some sort of reputation is touting it at the moment. Do your own homework and then trust your own judgment.
So what if you make a mistake! Learn from it and if the chart tells you that the trade was not a good one at the moment, get out of it and try another asset class or another time. The market is not going to disappear. It will be there tomorrow giving you another opportunity to be successful but only if you learn from mistakes and learn to ignore the carnival barkers. The truth is that few ( if any ) of them are going to be there to take care of your family or loved ones for you. If you fail, what harm have you done to them? But you will have harmed yourself or your investment goals if you blindly follow these people. No one cares more about your investment goals and your personal success than YOU! Remember that!
What is interesting Dan is inflation is always quoted as the reason to buy gold and or silver.
ReplyDeleteWhat no one seems to talk about is that all the big countries are printing paper currency in the trillions of dollars to try and stave off the deflation that wants to take hold around the world.
Deflation of course is trying to find the true market prices of assets but for the central banks that is unacceptable as the banks and everyone else loses on their investments that they over paid for is deflation wins.
So not sure why inflation has to happen as the only reason to buy gold and silver.
If all Japan and the US and soon Europe by the looks of it can do is endlessly print trillions of dollars of paper money, is that not the best reason of all to get out of paper currencies and buy gold and silver perhaps?
The choice seems to be inflate the paper currencies or deflate into a depression wouldn't you say?
I don't see any direction for anything any more, the Fed has distorted all the markets.
DeleteThe central banks will have to choose between inflation and deflation sooner or later.
Deflation is the cure but it means Dow at 5000 and gold at $500 probably.
barney, unless you are blind, you must see a direction UP regarding the SP500 right now.
DeleteAnd imho, once the feast is over there, given the duration of that trend, the correction is also likely to be quite a feast, if you can short, of course.
Gold is now a directionless market.
It is stuck between a downwards resistance linking tops on the weekly time unit, and an upwards support linking the 3 last bottoms on the same time unit. Prices are squeezed in between.
BB6,
DeleteDon't hang your net worth on the "Feds have distorted mkts, nothing makes sense, etc" That's just BS from the Barkers, as Dan correctly calls them.
The truth is that markets have been "distorted" one way or another ever since there have BEEN markets, and the sooner you realize it, the sooner you will be on your way to profits.
A hard lesson to learn is to leave your sense of moral certainty and outrage at the door. The mkts DON'T CARE, and they will use your sense of right and wrong TO TAKE YOUR MONEY! This is the primary way the PM shills cheat their gullible customers out of their hard-earned "fiat" (did you think it was "utterly worthless" when you were busting your hump to earn it??).
"Deflation of course is trying to find the true market prices of assets but for the central banks that is unacceptable as the banks and everyone else loses on their investments that they over paid for is deflation wins."
DeleteFractional reserve banking, is a pyramid scheme that collapses, as soon as deflation sets in. So deflation is their last option, because deflation means political revolution. And since this time the whole world will be drawn into the abyss, the globalists have no secure base. It could easily spin out of their control and when the US citizens would find back to their roots, Washington could easily be lost for the elite, and the New York and Wall Street would be lost.
London is already a multethnic shithole and who knows how the fat and dumbed down Brits would react, if their refrigerators would stay empty for two weeks? It's easily possible that the missed revolution with the remaining heads of the Royals finished and the City of London becoming a part of England again.
New York and the City could get lost easily. And then everything would become possible. I don't think the 1% will risk that and therefore they will do everything to prevent deflation.
Look at the minimal dip in debt reduction in 2008. That was enough to bring the whole financial system worldwide down for almost four times over the next four years. The last time in 2012 the tiny Greece would have been sufficient to initiate the final liquidity meltdown.
A pyramid scheme does not come to an equilibrum, once it begins to unravel. Either the ponzi scheme can continue, or it unravels. There is no soft landing.
Everyone who claims that deflation was a solution is distracting from the fact that the system is a ponzi system that cannot withstand debt reduction. Cui bono?
Eric Sprott and company are evil idiots. The Charts and Price are my Master.
ReplyDeleteActually God is your master and he doesn't like to hear you talk like that.
DeleteYes, Sprott IS an evil bastard.
DeleteBut "IT" does not exist!
DeleteSprott is talking his book as everyone else.
DeleteBut an idiot?
An idiot is the one, who confuses liquidity with solvency.
And an idiot is the one, who believes that the calm over the last two or three years was a result of solved problems!
In fact, it seems Sprott and all the others claiming that nothing has been solved have been proven correct from no one else than the globalist "elite" itself:
To some extent, low inflation reflects intense competition in an increasingly globalized economy. But it also occurs when people and businesses are too hesitant to spend their money, which keeps unemployment high and wage growth low. In the eurozone, inflation has recently dropped perilously close to zero. And some countries, such as Portugal and Spain, may already be experiencing deflation. At best, the current policies are not working; at worst, they will lead to further instability and prolonged stagnation.
Governments must do better. Rather than trying to spur private-sector spending through asset purchases or interest-rate changes, central banks, such as the Fed, should hand consumers cash directly. In practice, this policy could take the form of giving central banks the ability to hand their countries’ tax-paying households a certain amount of money. The government could distribute cash equally to all households or, even better, aim for the bottom 80 percent of households in terms of income. Targeting those who earn the least would have two primary benefits. For one thing, lower-income households are more prone to consume, so they would provide a greater boost to spending. For another, the policy would offset rising income inequality.
Quote end.
Now tell me, who is the idiot?
The idiots everywhere confusing central bank liquidity with solvency?
The idiots here and everywhere else, that confuse the calm of the last two or three years with the solution of the underlying problems?
The above quote is from the article "Print Less but Transfer More: Why Central Banks Should Give Money Directly to the People." in Foreign Affairs.
And btw, the last act of the drama has not even started yet.
But the same idiots today that claim things have changed, are the same that didn't see from 2001 on, what was coming.
Sprott is talking his book, but at least he understands that this system is coming to an end. Contrary to the real idiots...
So far, the best investment in order to reap the benefit of insane amounts of money printing is common stocks. That is where the money is going.
ReplyDeleteIf you want to cry, compare the chart of the GDX with Southwest Airlines (LUV).
The consumer has never been happier or stronger.
"The consumer has never been happier or stronger."
DeleteMark,
you're a true master of cynicism. Not too much, not too less, exactly below the threshold that the sheeple do not recognize it and believe it could be real. Love your comments.
ps: you could hire at the FED. Or the WH. But you probably would make the most in Big Pharma. The opportunities with the equivavlent of the central banks printing presses, the creation of problems and solutions with innovative revenue generators like SARS, H5N1, Ebola, Aids, offers unique opportunities for motivated and enlightened people who want to help the world!
What is the value of silver to the average Joe who has some wealth and wants to preserve his purchasing power for down the road. Is silver in physical form at this time in history at these price levels a good choice? It could be a certain percentage along side other investment but should silver be part of the investment strategy?
ReplyDeleteDan - thanks for the posts. Copper was a bit of an anomaly this week. Unlike Silver, it was strong most of the week...Looks like Copper and Gold are both forming a compression triangle on a daily chart.
ReplyDeleteZhang take a look at these charts
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kitco.com/finance/details.html?redirect=&popup=1&j1_symbol=%24SPX&j1_region=&j1_selected=chartForm&j1_module=indiceDetail&time=20y&volume=&barType=AREA&grid=1&logscale=&events=&ov1=&pctchange=&addindicator=&indicators=
http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx
In case they do not link the 1st one is 20 year chart of S&P 500
and the 2nd one is 20 year silver. What do you think, which one is better?
To be honest with you I have been a multi-decade silver investor "been stackin" since the late 1960's so I may be a bit biased.
Help! I'm blinded by the eloquence!
DeleteSW, your charts don't link, so I brought up my own twenties. Looks like Silver has gone from ~5 to ~19, while ES has gone from ~440 to ~2000. Not sure how that makes the case for silver.
DeleteMuch more damning is what Zhang points out, and thus it is not even close. Also, a portfolio of stocks can be liquidated in a flash, hundreds of pounds of silver not so much.
Another point: please note that you can come here and express your opinion without being flamed, called a troll, banned, etc. Your friends in the online PM community have a hell of a lot to learn about common courtesy.
Yeah! Take that, you evil silver lovers!
DeleteOnce you add in reinvested dividends, stocks really shine over metals, as noted by the second chart embedded in this article.
Deletehttp://theirrelevantinvestor.tumblr.com/post/92054293418/cherry-picking
Hi Dan, silver recorded yesterday a daily 9 set up
ReplyDelete"every time KWN publishes an article claiming Silver is going to rise exponentially, a Fairy dies"
ReplyDeleteNow, THAT's funny! Thumbs up!
Zhang, over in your neck of the woods, Marc Faber is pretty bearish just about everything. For the pull, he usually gets it right, but he has been wrong U.S. stocks of late, as he, like lots of veterans is usually early; he pretty much nails the various Asian markets consistently over the last several years. We shall all see. Have a good weekend.
ReplyDeleteOk Zhang, here I go again. I believe in alternation. So, in '81 we had the emotional bottom in bonds. In '84 we had the fundamental realization secondary or higher bottom. So, in '08 we had the emotional top in the mkt at Christmas, and then the fundamental top in '12. This is the key to the whole shooting match, and the tiny pm mkts are simply red headed stepchild footnotes. Rates lead and if I am right, U.S. stks are on their last legs, but as usual it is all about timing. People saying that retail needs to be involved for the top I think are wrong. Retail is dead for the rest of the current cycle and not coming back. Have a good weekend and let Hubert have a nice nap.
ReplyDeleteBuy strength, sell weakness. It really doesn't need to be any more complicated than that.
ReplyDeleteYou trend followers will never make and keep any real money (sorry). The easiest investment ever is to go with what is working. But to build real wealth you have to see that the crowd is wrong and build your position into that weakness. It takes courage, character, conviction, and patience and no it doesn't work when trading futures (does anything?) A lesson that I had to learn is that God usually requires character before the ability to build real wealth.
ReplyDeleteThat is blasphemy, Doc! Didn't you get the Memo?
DeleteI did Soren but I don't believe it. So we will see,
DeleteThis is the new generation, Doc. As soon as you mentioned 'patience', they ADD-ed somewhere else.
DeleteDr. Don;
DeleteI would suggest you stick to doctoring and leave the trading/investing to those of us who have learned how to spot tends and capitalize on them.
I personally find your remarks not only uninformed, but also condescending and rude.
The "logic" expressed in those comments ( and to call it "logic" is to abuse the word ) assumes that because one spots a major trend, goes with it and then profits, that one has no courage, no character, no conviction and no patience.
You are free to believe whatever delusion you like but I have found over the years that successful traders learn how to profit while those fail at it fall back on spouting moral platitudes and somehow consoling themselves for being too obtuse to learn to properly read and understand markets.
Maybe in the bizarre world in which you inhabit, "real money" does not accrue from successfully capitalizing on trends, but in the world of trading and investing, real money comes to those who are skilled in their craft.
As far as God requiring character before one has the ability to build real wealth - I can only say that is a statement that is both contradicted by the Scriptures themselves and by the human experience. Some of the wealthiest men are morally rotten within and strangers to God and His truth.
Some of the most virtuous men have also been among the poorest in this world's goods.
Abraham was a wealthy man and a true believer. Solomon was one of the wealthiest men recorded in history. It is written that silver was as common as stones in his days. His latter end however shows a man corrupted by idolatry and his many wives who led him astray.
If you want to come here and somehow take the name of God in vain by dishonoring Him to somehow bolster your fallacious argument about trend following and character, you will find an opponent in me.
Do not degrade the name of God here on my site ever again.
Dr Don,
DeleteTo add to above comments. Your post has too many contradictions to make any sense. You say 'easiest' way to make money is...and then you say takes courage. Also have you heard the saying that behind every great wealth is a great crime. Not always true but I know first hand of many cases.
Good analysis ....trading range is best outcome ( that's what traders do !)
ReplyDeleteMaybe the demise of gold and silver looks a little too pat, as does the everlasting rise of the main markets. This is a time to be cautious on all sides.
ReplyDeleteDan, been a while since you talked about gold COT. It seems the large specs remain very stubborn in holding med-high levels of long positions regardless of the fundamentals and price action. Perhaps one should consider recognizing this as a sign of strength in hands and patience and not necessarily a contrarian or bad omen for the resumption of the bull market.
ReplyDeleteSulverwood
ReplyDeleteBelieve Zang is 100% correct. But, for the wort case of all being a complete breakdown of law and order, some silver might be useful as small change to return when people pay for goods in gold. For gold you probably want a variety of sizes for various purchases.
Yes this is responding to a scenario that is low probability but trying to give you an additional thought.
Wow Dan guess I touched a few hot buttons. Not sure how you think I dishonor God something that I would never do. Dan I was referring to my own lack of character and how I had to learn the hard way that things like being compulsive, not showing patience, fear, greed, etc kept me from being all that I could be as an investor.
ReplyDeleteAs far as a successful trader goes I have never seen one in my 25 years in the investment business. I have seen many try but have never seen anyone accumulate wealth by trading. I am sure they are out there but my guess would be that they are very rare indeed. Sorry to elicit such a violent response from you Dan I guess you are looking for only people that think like you. I think this bear market in metals and micro-cap natural resources stocks has set up one of the great investment opportunities of our time. But it's not a "trade". For me to move to the next level as an investor I saw that I needed to improve my character or I would never be all that I could be.Dan you might want to know me a little better before you accuse me of taking the Lord's name in vane, degrade His name, dishonor Him, for that is something that I would never do or ever will.
Dr. Don; I am surprised that in 25 years you have never seen a successful trader. I have been banging away for 40 years and am winners and I also know a handful of other winners. I guess you and your associates are who we have been exploiting??
DeleteHi, doc, you have been 25 years in the investment business and you have never seen a successful trader/gambler? I suppose we have to define what we mean by the word trader, as there are many different ways of being one. All 'investment' is gambling, but it is a question of evaluating probability slightly in your favor, unlike in a casino, where the probability is that you must inevitability lose in the long-term. Traders who wait very patiently for a trend to establish itself, then enter the market, may have the best chances of success, which means they shouldn't be making too many trades at all, riding the crest of the wave but not neglecting to get off before it crashes on the rocks. These are the Jesse Livermores of legendary fame, and not the high rollers of Las Vegas.
DeleteWith regard to the present situation the 'trends' have been long established, both with regard to the ascent of Ty e S&P, now in its 7th years, and the decline of the gold price, now coming into its 4th year. These trends are getting very long in the tooth, and clambering aboard now could be too late, ensuring that probability will not work in your favor.
Although you deride trading, compare it to putting your money in the bank where the outcome is certain, that you will lose all eventually, as a result of the combined assault of high inflation, or at least much higher than what one is told, and low interest rates, plus the distinctly shaky state of the banks themselves. What alternatives are there?
You say that this bear market in metals has set up one of the great investment opportunities, but how do you know that? The gold market could fall another 30%, enough perhaps to wipe you out completely, but if you wait until the market really does turn up, how much better would your chances be?
Peter you hold investments that don't have an expiration date.
DeleteDr. Don;
DeleteDo not assume that you can come onto this site and post nonsense and have it go unchallenged especially when you take it upon yourself to bring God into the comments so as to buttress your thesis.
Here are the words that you wrote:
You trend followers will never make and keep any real money (sorry)."
Not only is your statement factually incorrect, it reeks of condescension.
We trend followers make money by getting on board a trend and riding it until it ends. That is the essence of being successful whether one is a trader or an investor. According to your theory, when gold and silver were in bull markets, the smart thing to have done was to ignore the trend and courageously short both the metals while gold blasted to over $1900 and silver to $50. How ignorant would that have been?
More of your words:
" But to build real wealth you have to see that the crowd is wrong and build your position into that weakness"
Once more - wrong again.
Tell me oh wise one, was "the crowd" that bought equities in late 2008 correct or incorrect? Here is your problem in one word: ARROGANCE.
You think you are wiser than the collective judgment of the thousands and thousands of individuals who make up the market. If it goes up, you will sell it because that is a trend and you, being the brave contrarian that you are, must not go with the crowd but go the opposite direction.
Here is a news flash for you. You are not wiser than the market and until you learn that, you will never be successful as a trader. Do not pontificate on why no one ever become successful as a trader merely because you lacked the necessary skills and talent and above all, humility, that go into making a good trader.
More of your words:
" It takes courage, character, conviction, and patience and no it doesn't work when trading futures (does anything?)"
That is exactly what good traders have and why they are successful. and yes it does work.
Lastly:
It takes courage, character, conviction, and patience and no it doesn't work when trading futures (does anything?) A lesson that I had to learn is that God usually requires character before the ability to build real wealth."
You said not a word about this is what God was doing in you. The inference was that those who follow the crowd, and those who follow trends, and those who are not contrarians lack courage, character, conviction and patience. If you want to talk about what God showed you that you needed - fine - then say so!
You painted with a brush that essentially insulted those who follow trends, go with the crowd, and are not contrarians.
And yes, to call God into one's argument to buttress a point that is not a moral absolute is to take His name in vain. I already pointed out examples of those who were wealthy and those who were poor, some of which had character and some which did not.
If you are going to make a false statement contradicted by both the Scriptures, and by human experience, do NOT make assertions about God which are demonstrably false. I will not stand for that on this site. Period.
Next time specify what God showed you about yourself and leave it at that. That will avoid you crossing the line.
Dan I'm glad I got to know you a little better. Good luck.
DeleteDr. Don, here's a Livermore quote for you to reflect on:
Delete"I never argue with the tape. Getting sore at the market doesn’t get you anywhere. Much more to the game of speculation than to play for fluctuations for a few points. There is one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or bear side, but the right side."
Also, it should be noted that going long the PMs after a bullish trend has re-developed (it'll happen, eventually) will be the right TRADE, at that time...
ReplyDeleteThank you Dan I learn so much from your objective point of view.
ReplyDeleteLan
ReplyDeleteThat was one hilarious post. Thank you.
Hope I got your first/familiar name right now. Don't need you slagging me.
Have a great Sunday.
This report is good news for contrarians. With silver out of favor the price will remain cheep as this deflationary period continues, regardless of the central bank influence on the markets and all of the virtual wealth created.
ReplyDeleteZhang Lan; The last thing I would ever want to do is insult you; my apologies.
ReplyDeletesandman4224;
ReplyDeleteWe have another name for "contrarians" - they are the ones on the wrong side of the trade.
Thanks for the feedback, Dan!
DeleteC'est la vie, no?
EUR USD - Target 1.2750 ?
ReplyDeleteMonthly time unit.
Well, here it is simple to see how easily Eur Usd may reach 1.2750 as early as end september. All it has to do is reach its inf bollinger band. 1.2750 is also a horizontal support zone, as it corresponds to 3 lows on the monthly candle charts. And...it is a fibonacci retracement level as well. So, why not?
http://i57.tinypic.com/2va1i6x.jpg
Weekly time unit :
The red line in the middle can support prices short-term...let's see if we manage to reach 1.3150. At the moment, I'm rather targetting 1.3180 as the red line crosses that point next week.
http://i61.tinypic.com/21jazi1.jpg
EUR.USD currently trading under 1.3190
Delete"The wind blows over the earth: The image of contemplation.
ReplyDeleteThus the kings of old visited the regions of the world,
Contemplated the people, and gave them instruction."
Now, which King are you going to listen?
Silver...
ReplyDeleteNot much to add : daily time unit is clear, ma20 down, bollinger bands both down, prices down, macd didn't cross up, Cdur is in the high of its cycle, I don't see any news saying the trend down is over.
Weekly time unit, bollinger are still horizontal...so once more, I will carefully watch volumes and other indicators on the daily time unit if silver hits the inf bollinger band once more, at 18.50 $, the low of its range.
P.S : support may start from 18.85 soon with the median of an Andrew's fork on the 2-day time scale and the stochastic momentum indicator being already quite low there.
Deletehttp://i61.tinypic.com/29zbz4.jpg
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteMr. Steve Brassey
ReplyDeleteOnly another week and Labor Day will be here. What do you think about Palladium's closing price on that day?
Ah, I can taste that fat juicy steak already!!!
LOL....
Mark, it looks bad for my bet for sure. Having trouble accessing some of my sites here this morning. Monthly charts are not great for forecasting price objectives, but in this case, the flag flies at half mast, so the objective is $1400, and we all know that anything can happen in thin mkts!! Send me your address and I will send you your medium rare Porterhouse Special. brassey07@yahoo.com
DeleteBut don't tell Zhang Lan that you beat me because she will give me the big horselaugh, ok?
Zhang Lan, it would not let me show??
ReplyDeleteStop the presses everyone because there is indeed a good interview at kwn with a gal named Malmgren that makes some very good points. However, not to disappoint, we have another worthless piece with Rule, who is racing to the bottom with Dines, Sprott, Leeb, Sinclair-Seligman and others for the bottom of the sewer.
ReplyDeleteHey Steve just because someone doesn't agree with your short sighted view of markets doesn't make them wrong. Let's see Richard Russel or Trader Dan, tough call.
DeleteDr. Don, I do not follow your thoughts; Russell has ignored his Dow Theory Signal for 5 years, so are you defending him? When did you start trading, last month?
DeleteYeah that's right Steve about a month ago. Don't count your chips while the game is still going on friend.
Deletekeep stackin' friend
DeleteLOL no comparison between our esteemed Dan Norcini and Richard Russell who sat out and missed the greatest stock market rally in world history. Truly a tragic error of epic proportions.
ReplyDeleteThe sad reality is that Richard Russell is suffering from dementia, as he thinks we are still in a secular bear that started in 2000, despite the SPY making new record highs in 2007 and again in 2013.
DeleteNow its down to rambling on and on about items unrelated to stocks, but I will say he's a master storyteller when it comes to WW II.
But of course, its all due to "lies and propaganda" even though the transports like LUV are going completely parabolic confirming the new highs in the Dow.
Dr Don, don't waste your time stressing in here. I've followed Trader Dan for quite some time and he is a wealth of great information. However as far as the whole crowd in the comments section, it just reminds me of kindergarden.
ReplyDeleteAgree time to move on. Thanks Doctermyeyes
DeleteWell poor Peter Schiff will be manning the phones again tomorrow to handle a bunch more redemption at Euro Pacific as the USDX is surging now in Asia trade and foreign currencies are getting pummeled. At least gold is only down a few bucks but the night is early.
ReplyDeleteAs General Jim is fond of saying, "The Story Will Be Told Here!", LOL....
Mark,
ReplyDeleteRegarding Richard Russell. I don't read his reports very often anymore, and I admit the last few years he has lost his fastball, but he is the one who turned me on to gold in 2003 as I made my first purchase at $330, up 300% since, not to shabby. If I'm lucky enough to reach the ripe old age of 90, I hope the worse thing I have to worry about is that I don't interpret the markets the way I used to. Besides his stories on WW2, also enjoyed his memories of his time growing up in NYC during the great depression. The only thing that bothers me is to see his name on KWN, next to the despicable headlines that Eric King manufactures everyday. Richard, even though you don't pick em the way you used to, I still love ya.
And whatever happened to Ms. Ann Barnhardt?
ReplyDeleteShe closed down her brokerage in 2011 and shortly thereafter the markets went on a huge meltup, and the CRB Index crashed.
Live went on after MF Global and Jon Corzine still walks around like normal, attending galas and lavish parties at The Hamptons.
Poor Anne must be doing some soul searching, wondering WTF happened and how she got it so wrong listening to all the doom and gloomers.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteAnne Barnhardt is a wack job and can't be taken seriously.
ReplyDeleteNeither can the source of the following...for amusement purposes only....you can't make this stuff up.
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/426577#comment-426577
In the meantime, the sites message system is monitored for unfriendly activity or attitudes towards it from nefarious forces. }:^)
How folks still overlook or accept their privacy being exploited is unimportant I guess.
Evil banker or govt plans for all of humanity trumps the privacy issue I guess.
it gets even worse (or better). hey TF, flush these three turds down before the big Turd himself gets flushed (Fix, IRB, and Steph/mod Jane) btw - exposing "Stane" to daylight has to be the stupidest thing you've done yet, even dumber than the hat eating disgrace. good grief.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/6068/paid-posters-tfmr
thank you TF for at least flushing the IRB posts. they were the most objectionable. allowing certain posters to repeatedly use the "c" word on a public forum reflects badly on all concerned. and Steph, you are an extreme hypocrite for allowing it. now go clean up the rest of this vile hate filled nazis posts.
Deleteto TD, the only reason i post here is because you, and DPH are being targeted lately by name there. i am blocked from posting a defense at the source, as are most of the rest of the cult survivors.
peckerwood;
DeleteThanks for trying to defend me.
Honestly, I do not read gold bug sites nor do I care the least bit about what they might post about me. I mentioned to some of the other posters here at one time that in order to be offended by someone, you have to first have respect for them as a human being.
my experience with the cult members of the GIAMATT crowd is that many of them are vile and despicable people. They hate those who dare to speak negatively of their yellow metal god.
That is just more evidence of how far gone down the path of cultism they are.
When all is said and done, gold is just another monetary asset. Sometimes it is in favor; sometimes it is not. But to far too many of that crowd, it is a deity that occupies all their waking moments, shapes their entire mind set, clouds their objectivity and ends up filling them with venom and spleen.
Very tragic. Some of the poor folks who are trapped within that cult can be made to eventually see the light and escape its clutches. others... it is too late....
thank you too Dan. we too have had our differences. the difference being in a healthy community, the better man forgets, and moves on. in a cult, all that disagree are either brought inline or are shunned.
Deletekeep doing what you are doing.
peace out.
Gotta say I get a bit of a chuckle out the comments on here regarding the greatest stock market rally of all time.
ReplyDeleteMost on here talk like they got in around Dow 6000 and then rode it all the way back up to Dow 17000
If you did, well done, you deserve credit for picking the 2008 crash bottom and then near tripling your money.
But thinking the majority were already in for years when the Dow was well above 10000 and then rode the 2008 crash all the way down same as Warren Buffet did and so many of us did and if they stayed in until now their annual return for 10 years of investing is about 1 or 2% a year?
Whereas if you were in gold for the last 10 years, it has way out preformed the Dow and S&P
So thinking guys like Sprott and Sinclair are laughing as they were in well over 10 years ago were they not?
They don't care about short term with the endless money printing going on do you think?
Or is QE ending for good this time?
Sinclair was very bullish in 1993. Any idea where the dow was back then?
DeleteCalling the two "smarter" then warren buffett is a dumb as it gets.
Always good for a chuckle these cultists.
Cya at 1050 gold in 12 - 15 months.
Nice try Jasper, but there was no internet communication back in 1993 like there is today.
DeleteSo for you to somehow know and say that Sinclair went bullish on gold in 1993 makes you the cultist as none of us others would have even known what Sinclair was saying back then.
Sinclair and Sprott went bullish on gold around 2001 when it was at $250. So 500% returns for them?
But keep cheer leading the Dow and S&P and patting yourself on the back because all most have done in the Dow is recovered most of their 2008 losses unless you are in your 20s and decided to go fully long the Dow at 6000 in 2008 at the crash levels.
Then you tripled your money and can pat yourself on the back. You are smarter than Buffet was in 2008 as his money rode the crash all the way down same as everyone else.
Back in 1993 jim sinclair was a newsletter writes that sent his drivel by fax.
Deletehttps://db.tt/nZKgZCL8
Sinclair has been pumping gold all his life.
We could see $16 silver and a 76 gold to silver ratio
ReplyDeleteWww.monetary-metals.com Supply & Demand report 24th August
I have an interesting line on one of my very long charts which still "awaits" to be hit at 16.50 for silver...but I hope we won't.
DeleteLet's see how 18.50 holds if we get there.
For the record, I've just bought back 1/3 of my short gold position 1314 at 1276.
ReplyDeleteGrrr!!!!
DeleteHow many trades I'm missing by not being able to monitor prices more regularly.
I put a buy order on the EUR USD at 1.3182 exactly last night, and now I'm checking and I see that Eur Usd made a bottom at 1.3183...
I missed it by one single pip!
Finally, trading and poker seem the same to me :)
Hey, my luck, where have you gone?
So...I'm still short full position Eur Usd, having apparently missed the 1.3183 bottom today, which I would gladly have called. That's life.
From the silver buy at 19, out at 21, to the copper short, to the gold short to the oil long, its exceptional trading in terms of price and time. Some can have overloaded positions and get lucky and make a lot. But in terms of price and time, the exactness of your trades is quite remarkable. If ever one day you decide to do this full time, and manage other peoples money, count me in as one of your clients. Would gladly give you $100,000 to manage.
DeleteNew highs on SPY and QQQ.
ReplyDeleteNew lows for the move in gold.
WAY TO GO KWN!!!!
The SPY and QQQ need all the highs they can get, what have they returned to investors over the last 10 to 15 years a few peanuts?
Delete1% gain a year right, what a great investment.
Keep cheer leading the Dow and S&P as they need it to get any decent returns for their longer term investors
Guess you forgot the Dow was at 14000 in 2007 right, so its gone nowhere really. Pretty much a bear market.
Thats excluding dividends. Which one can reinvest.
DeleteSpeaking of 10 year, its almost the 10 year anniversary or TRX going down while Jim is selling his shares.
All the way from 9 to 2 dollar and it probably isnt over yet!
Good Morning, S&P 2000. Meanwhile, miners gap lower...
ReplyDeletenew lows for the move for TRX and MUX
ReplyDeleteMining company CEO net worths are getting decimated once again.
Oh, I forgot.
General Jim sold most of his shares at the highs and now he's safely ensconced in Treasury Bonds, LOL....
General Jim got 20 million shares when the company was formed and has less then1.5 million left.
DeleteBut, like Jim wrote, "the sheep deeply enjoy their sheering" so whats your problem.
That Jim, lying about everything and they love him for it. If I knew how to do it - I wouldnt.
Just another unapologetic unscrupulous jerk of a sociopath.
Funny thing is he was already so wealthy, at his age close to expiration who needs that much more money
DeleteI think the 9 million dollar he had invested in trx before 2002 is all he had.
Deletei believe jim got 60 million dollars out of the trx scam.
With jim when you start verifying its all smoke mirrors and lies.
Well it will be interesting to see if he buys back if gold goes under 1000. That will be the acid test of his true convictions
DeleteIt will be the proof that he is a lying sack of shit because he urged his widows and orphans investors to buy in june 2013 claiming he was and he has been telling at q and as that he is 100% invested in trx.
DeleteAny of you Au bears getting nervous? Looks like the Fed threw the book at it this morning with limited success. The trend is your friend. Right?
ReplyDeleteDr Don, while gold has gone from 1900 to 1275 ,were you ever bearish in this period ? Or bullish and buying all the way down. Just curios ?
DeleteOne year total returns, thru friday, per Morningstar
DeleteSPY +22.31%
GLD -7.24
SLV -16.08
GDX -10.30
GDXJ -15.80
Yes, the trend is my friend. A very good friend indeed.
Get those 1 year numbers up while you can because for the last 9 months the trend has been the exact opposite of the picture you just posted above.
DeleteWhats the SPY up 4% or so while the others you listed are up double digits I believe.
Check the 100 year record, cultist.
DeleteDid you chrleck that 1993 jim sinclair declaring the bearmarket in gold is absolutely over fax or dont you want to know.
Nice try again Jasper, I know nothing of the gold guys before the early 2000s like you seem too.
DeleteIf anyone is a gold cultist it is perhaps you as you seem to know all about gold.
Or perhaps you are just a gold hater and for that reason chose not to invest.
Gold was the investment of the decade from 2000 until a few years ago wasn't it?
If one could have invested all their money in the Dow at 6000 after the 2008 crash that was a fine investment too.
But only you guys on this blog were smart enough to do that by the sounds of it. You should have told Buffet to get out in 2007 before the crash.
What Dan says can be spun the opposite too, anyone that points out the facts that the S&P and Dow have done almost nothing over the last 10 years and you take offence.
Perhaps you are a Dow and S&P cultist and when someone points out the facts about the S&P and Dow you don't like it.
You just look at a big number like Dow 17000 but not the fact it was at 14000 7 years ago, then crashed and bounced. Well done.
Trolling fool. Im done with you.
DeleteMetals/Miners returns YTD is the cherry picking approach. They only look good due to the major dump right at year end. Pull back your chart a little longer. A year or two. Does anything metals related look like it's going anywhere at all? No.
DeleteOf course you are Jasper, when you don't like the facts you resort to calling others names.
DeleteFacts are:
- If you were one of the few that got out of the Dow in 2007 near the top at 14000 and then re-invested near the 2008 crash bottom at 6000 you made a great trade and have tripled your money.
- Gold from 2000 to 2011 was a great investment too.
- If one has been holding the Dow for the last 10 to 15 years, not such a great investment as you have mostly just recovered your 2008 losses which is still better than nothing.
I totally agree with you Eric, gold miners have a long way to go to get back to any respectability.
DeleteGold miners have been a bad investment for years now.
Click this link.
Deletehttps://www.dropbox.com/s/v7qxa0nhpesx5q6/Jims%20fax.docx?dl=0
Do you think you can do that for me?
Sure, if Sinclair said gold was going to go up back then guess he was too early.
DeleteAll the talk from these investment experts these days is how the Dow and S&P will just keep going up.
We should be able to post all their wrong faxes someday too, unless the Fed really can print money forever with no consequences.
Your words:
Delete"Nice try Jasper, but there was no internet communication back in 1993 like there is today.
So for you to somehow know and say that Sinclair went bullish on gold in 1993 makes you the cultist as none of us others would have even known what Sinclair was saying back then.
Sinclair and Sprott went bullish on gold around 2001 when it was at $250. So 500% returns for them?"
Sinclair is a charlatan and a liar with a hole in the ground. Your hero.
Don't get me wrong. I'd love for gold to go up. Still sitting on a pile of physical. Sort of like the insurance policy on that old car that I'm thinking maybe is due for a little "crunch" soon, heh, heh.
DeleteI'd love to lighten up that stack into strength.
Minets should mine and pay 10% plus dividends to compensate for the large cap ex enormous cost for exploration and because the rampant fraud in the sector. Were not yet at rational valuations.
DeleteActually Jasper I discovered Trader Dan from Sinclair's website, Dan used to post on Sinclair's website.
DeleteI like sound fundamental logic for investing and found Jim and Dan both presented good fundamental logic for investing.
Of course these days the Fed trumps most fundamentals with their endless QE and all so harder to invest on fundamentals alone now.
Jasper;
DeleteLet me ask you to please do me a favor. I think we here all now understand how you feel about Jim Sinclair.
I agree with you that if Jim was telling people to take possession of their mining shares holdings and giving the impression that it was not the time to sell, while he was indeed selling his own private shares of TRX, that was wrong. We are talking about peoples' futures and hopes and dreams. I say this as a person who considered myself a friend of Jim who never did me any harm. that is what is so painful about this to me personally. I still want to hope that it is not true.
However, the main problem is that too many people out there just blindly follow those who have some sort of reputation for some odd reason as if they are infallible and base their entire investment strategy on the prognostications of these same individuals rather than doing their own research or thinking for themselves.
That is why I started this particular site - to be an aid to those who are tired of watching their life's savings evaporate in rotten investments particularly such as those found on the KWN website. The idea was to teach people how to read the charts and thus interpret the voice of the markets. By so doing, they would not be blindly following those who by the very nature of their business CANNOT BE OBJECTIVE and could thus tune them out or ignore them. If they chose to continue reading them for some reason, at the very least they would no longer be looking at their words and predictions through rose-colored spectacles.
I scratch my head in wonder why there seem to be so many who cannot understand that anyone who is a CEO or a chief officer of some sort in the gold mining industry is always going to be biased. Same goes for those pumping gold oriented newsletters or gold-oriented websites. They are Johnnie one notes who cannot change their tune because it is their livelihood. Only those who can approach the markets objectively can ever hope to make an honest assessment about them.
It is like I said to some in a post... no one is every going to be more concerned about your investments and your choices than you.
That being said, I do not want to have this site turned into a place where Jim Sinclair is constantly vilified. Let's leave things the way they were and move on. I think those who are going to see about gold and the mind set of many gold bugs have already seen it by a brutal bear market that has cost every single one of them that came in since 2011 huge losses. If that is not enough to wake them up and bring them back to reality, I am not sure what will.
Life is too short to allow oneself to be filled with rage against another person. After all, we do nothing to them personally by remaining angry or bitter. Their life goes on. You note the actions or the speech and the conduct and move on learning from it and hoping others will also.
ultimately, all men must give an account of their life to the One Judge who never errs or makes a mistake. The realization of that, in and of itself, is enough ( or should be enough ) to make all of us much more cognizant of the manner in which we conducts ourselves, treat others and the words we say.
"never take your own revenge, beloved, but leave room for the wrath of God, for it is written, :Vengeance is Mine, I will repay," says the Lord.
Thanks
Thanks Dan, very well stated with a reference to relevant scripture. I personally don't visit JS Mineset or KWN much because it is largely a waste of time. For the same reason, I don't read the many postings written on this blog about Sinclair, TRX stock or the latest KWN headlines...I do like reading about the technical analysis that many of the contributors here on this blog offer up along with the perspectives aimed at understanding the fundamentals that may effect the markets and trading. This is the type of content I most appreciate because it is useful to me as a trader.
DeleteI will put in one plug for KWN which was the show "Weekly Metals Wrap" with Dan Norcini. Great show, miss it, but discovered this blog through KWN which is even more insightful.
Good trading
Alright dan ill take it easy for a while.
DeleteJasper;
Deletethank you!
Dan
Trinity;
Deletethanks for the kind words... good trading to you as well!
hui and xau gapped down last week and are presently following through to the downside; better find some sponsorship soon because it
ReplyDeletesounds like the fat lady is singing
With Russia upping the ante prior to talks with Merkel and Peroshenko expect a temporary golden bounce. But a Merkel/Putin deal is in the offing, which could increase Russian influence in eastern Ukraine, putting an end to the crisis, which would not be good for gold.
ReplyDeleteJust some question to the board as I am looking to harvest some of the wisdom here;
ReplyDelete1. With the state of the debt liabilities of the US can we afford real interest rates? Will financial repression be the long term policy of handling the debt?
2. If you consider yourself to be a long term value investor, which I do, when to you sell your investments and when do you buy them?
3. I heard it said that silver is a very volatile metal price wise. So if volatility is a function of price so as the price falls what would you expect volatility of silver price to do? Thanks in advance to anyone who cares to share their knowledge.
I do think you touch on a critical factor which the media conveniently ignores completely. Interest rates cannot rise more than a token amount for the simple reason that US indebtedness is so vast that repaying the interest on the principal at even modestly higher rates would be impossible, as it would consume a ridiculous proportion of the annual budget. Financial repression will continue, but one asks oneself how much longer this bizarre situation can continue. If you want a long-term reason for gold support, look no further.
DeleteMerkel is imbued with the Bismarckian spirit of Realpolitik pragmatism, and Putin is playing his hand for increased influence in eastern Ukraine, as well as thwarting Ukrainian membership of NATO. Merkel will decide what the rest of Europe does. These two, Merkel and Putin, get on well, and see eye to eye on many issues, with Putin also being a fluent speaker of German. If agreement comes about gold will need new floorboards for support.
ReplyDeleteHorrific action in GDX again, GDX/GLD ratio now rolling over, look out below!!!
ReplyDeleteThe rally in the U.S. Dollar and Treasuries is simply astounding.
ReplyDeleteNever before in world history has the investing public been so successful with gambling in paper speculations.
Gold mining shares exempted, of course.....
Lowest volume of the year for stocks and highest volume of the year for Au. Don't glean the field.
ReplyDeleteDon, go see what Eric de Groot had to say about shrinking volumes recently. It corroborates Martin Armstrong and I think somehow they may be right, so I don't take volumes as a too serious signal of weakness at the moment.
DeleteThanks Hubert I could not find Eric de Groot's comments (not sure what name he uses). I know that it is August but my point is they were determined that Au was going to have a bad day today and stocks would be up. No real price signals any more only FOMO, dark pools, HFT, naked shorting, and regualators that have been "Deep Captured" with the CME at the front of the line.
Delete