"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput

Trader Dan's Work is NOW AVAILABLE AT WWW.TRADERDAN.NET



Wednesday, October 9, 2013

What are the Gold Shares Saying?

The HUI to gold ratio continues to plumb new lows over the last few months having already moved well below the spike bottom made back in late 2008 when the first news about Quantitative Easing hit the markets. The falling ratio is disturbing.

Either one of two things is going to happen - either gold shares are going to stage a rebound sooner rather than later or the price of gold is going to start moving lower at a faster rate than the shares. There always remains the possibility that both will rise higher in sync with the shares outperforming to the upside. That would restore the ratio but thus far the technical charts of the HUI index do not show any serious buying by anyone but the value crowd.



The ratio has fallen through every single Fibonacci retracement level shown on the chart drawn off the 2000 low and the 2003 high. Classic Fibonacci theory would tell us that if the 75% retracement level is bested, odds favor the entire move being erased. that is more than sobering; it is a catastrophe.

It is telling that no matter what gold does, the shares simply cannot seem to gain much in the way of traction to the upside. Perhaps that will change but thus far the shares, which have been rather good at predicting in what direction the price of gold will be going, are heading lower.

One wonders just how far this ratio will continue to move. This is the reason that I have strongly recommended to miners that if they have the opportunity to lock in some good profits on gold under production, that they do so, at least a decent percentage of that production, to ensure those profits. In other words, hedge or use some forward contract methods so that they do not sit there and watch the metal sink lower on them without any downside price protection.

The ratio at such low levels would seem to be saying that there is a distinct possibility of lower gold prices ahead. Gold at $1300 is certainly not the same as gold at $1900 but if a miner can dig it out of the ground and secure profits at that price, why risk all of those profits? Something is going on in the mining shares which simply makes investors reluctant to buy them even after such a protracted decline. Perhaps investors are wondering whether profits are in the picture before they put hard earned capital at risk.

70 comments:

  1. "either gold shares are going to stage a rebound sooner rather than later or the price of gold is going to start moving lower at a faster rate than the shares. "
    " Classic Fibonacci theory would tell us that if the 75% retracement level is bested, odds favor the entire move being erased. "

    Thanks for giving us the two possibilities.
    I posted the "bullish" case yesterday from Maund's, and though it is difficult to judge someone else's analysis, I have the vague feeling that he is a bit writing what he wishes to see.
    1) it's not because HUI ratio is down under 2008 that it can't go even lower. So I'm against his recommendation of "buy and just go fishing".
    2) if he wants to see a head and shoulder on gold, that's all right, but I'm not sure I see it as well as he does...

    Conclusion : as a usually long only speculator in gold (I don't like the idea of shorting gold (I'm not talking about hedging physical with puts), but that's me), I am out of the market for now.
    Plus Eph made an interesting remark imho : the more prices go down, the more they sell. Did you see the latest remarks of the Argentinian Central Bank?? They don't like the volatility in gold and are considering making gold a lesser priority in their portfolio, even if it's not a big percentage already...

    If these guys manage to stop central banks, especially the BRICS, to buy as much as they did, or push some western central banks to sell some behind the curtains,...or if they manage to break the psychology of the asian buyer...well, oops, the floor for gold may disappear. And the best way to do it is to try to krach prices and increase volatility.
    So in that context, despite all the fundamental and logical and "good" reasons to own gold vs the total printer frenzy of us dollars, I can only be very very careful regarding next months, and once more, unfortunately, wouldn't be surprised if they manage to create another waterfall panic decline :(

    ReplyDelete
  2. At times like these only the best traders will make money. Im not selling
    Whats left of my miners and keeping all my coins , and quit my other paper trades / ETFs last year. I like to watch the gold market and see what it teaches
    us without old irrational exhuberance that infected so many of us. Now is
    Not the time for cheerleaders of gold and silver to be promoting their religion.
    There are better alternative assets to own.

    http://resources.knightfrank.com/GetResearchResource.ashx?versionid=1967&type=1

    ReplyDelete
  3. "Classic Fibonacci theory would tell us that if the 75% retracement level is bested, odds favor the entire move being erased. that is more than sobering; it is a catastrophe.`

    Enter Mark. The gold shares cheerleaders certainly did the mom and pop retail investors a huge disservice and the hedgefund community a huge favour. Even if the shares turn around here, were closing in on the 8th year of wealth destruction ad nauseam. Stay the course and dont sell your good gold shares. Sure.

    ReplyDelete
  4. 1296. to 1312 and back to 1294 in just minutes. If there was a futures market in horse manure, this is probably what it would trade like. But the metal of kings, for thousands of years, the backer of currencies, has deteriorated into this. How sad.

    ReplyDelete
  5. I do have to say, having only been in gold and gold shares since early 2009, and being very excited about the prospects for the first two years, the last two have literally been a bear. To watch GDXJ drop ~33% in only a month is very disheartening.

    But on the upside, everyone and their mother, except for a few standard bearer gold positive sites are as negative as I have ever seen. That's gotta mean something, that we are closer to a bottom than a top. I have no interest in selling my physical, and will be holding onto it with relatively tight hands for the rest of my life (hopefully 40+ years). If over the course of say, the next 20 years, holding gold proves to be a disaster, so be it. I need to stop watching the day to day crap.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. to be honest, someone holding gold shares has an excuse to worry day to day, especially since you have to also worry about any unforeseeable (negative) company news in a market that loves to be shorted.....but if you are holding gold, obbbviously long term you are going to be ok, and i just mean within the next 5 years its almost guaranteed to be above 1920 and touching 2000 dollar zone..(probably higher)..but holding gold shares is pretty dramatic, id prefer holding the index's like GDX or HUI that dont have the company news to worry about....( i recently got extra slaughtered with my company)....so yeah, holding metal is cool, you really can sleep welll...even if gold goes to 1000 and i dont even think it will go below 1270, but even at 1000, whatever, a few months later its back touching 1300 for sure...its intrinsic and has no counterparty risk....i reckon gold will easily be in 1400 jurisdicction by december and next year back above 1520 and therefore higher cos thatll be a new bull sign...gold companies are touuuuch tho, i prefer index's...

      Delete
  6. Dan,

    Over the course of the past couple years, through many sites I have on and off followed, you hear things like, Russia, China and India are buying gold, gold is in backwardation, the GOFO rate is negative, how can gold go down with so much money printing, gold is manipulated, etc. etc. Yet we are down over 30% from the peak.

    You are a great (although sometimes painful to hear) voice of moderation in a universe that seems to be as polarized as Republicans and Democrats. People either are perpetual cheerleaders of gold, or hate it with a passion. I bought it for insurance. In that respect, it has brought some sanity to my investing. Gold shares are another story!

    In any case, you read charts and base most your analysis off that, but what does your gut tell you for the next 3-5 years? As I have seen it, along with everyone else, there seems to be very little consequence to money printing in an overall sense. Interest rates remain low, the dollar is still a "safe" haven, even the threat of not raising the debt ceiling and possibly defaulting, Yellen, a dove being nominated,just seems to have no long term positive effect on the price of gold specifically.

    However I do have a foreboding that when the govt shutdown and debt ceiling crises are resolved, it will be nothing but negative for gold. Maybe that's what makes a bottom? Absolute hopelessness that there's any world event that can cause a rise in gold? I swear, it seems even if WWIII broke out, gold would get hammered!

    ReplyDelete
  7. Wow, gold stocks getting blowtorched again. SPY back above the 50-day.

    Everybody and their brother are dumping gold and buying stawks again!!

    Including the Chinese and Russians.

    Check out Europe, now at new 52-week highs.

    Pays to stay in the system for sure.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think it's cause the market is anticapating a resolution to the debt ceiling, it will be raised, as usual nothing new. Only as I said before this time around gold will go down on the annoucement and the dollar will rally. Unless the market is stunned again as with the no taper announcement.

      Delete
  8. This volatility is part of the plan to disparage gold. People will look at it and stay away. Central banks will dump, the Chinese will not want it, as long as real estate stabilizes. I submit that this is part of the overall plan to destroy gold's store-of-weath attributes.

    It really is insane today. There is no rhyme or reason, and I haven't traded today more than a couple bucks scalp either way. My hedge is the clear winner, which is slightly larger than my physical holding.

    I like gold's abilty to shield assets, thus at 250 or 2000, gold's role to me is the same. I just see where it is going, and am planning objectively, with no opinion attached. the shares' balance sheets are atrocious, and many kicking the tires wonder how they can raise needed capital, especially in light of lower possible gold prices. Thus, the share selloff continues.

    If the globalists succeed in breaking investor psychology we may see gold plumb to depths that may even surprise me (nothing surprises me anymore). Thus we may see many miners in bankruptcy. The globalists will step in and buy for pennies.

    I write the missives, because I hope the readers understand the dynamic here, and take major precautions. It's almost too late for the miners, but for those holding physical, all we need is to see another Fed paper dump in November to break the back once and for all on the one untraceable asset. At that point most will gladly hand in their gold to stick their fiat notes in a bank account where they are "safe." As for me I may actually take my hedge profits and add to positions.

    ReplyDelete
  9. When Obama said that raising the debt ceiling doesnt add anything to the deficit, every intelligent person fell out of his seat. The only reason to raise the debt ceiling is to borrow more. Can anybody be that stupid?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. peter schiff did a great little video on that...

      Delete
  10. Yellen has huge shoes to fill. Bernanke was the greatest central banker in history. The only way Yellen can make a name for herself is to increase QE from $85 billion to $125 billion immediately.

    Of course, that extra "liquidity" will be instantly channeled into U.S. common stocks, gold will sell off even faster, and many mining companies will be bankrupt before July 4th weekend 2014.

    And because of all the "hot money" coming in to chase U.S. stocks, the U.S. Dollar will stage a monstrous rally, thus providing even more reinforcement for Yellen to step QE up even more.

    Because commodity prices will be tanking, and there will be the threat of disinflation because unemployment will stagnate while the .001% get even richer.

    In a nutshell, we are in the most incredible, beautifully conceived "perpetual motion machine" ever devised by the Washington and FOMC plutocrats.

    And 2014 will mark yet another record banner year for sale of fine art, exotic cars, real estate at The Hamptons, and Tiffany's jewelry.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So we might as well buy the missus some jewellery , a classic car ,
      And go with the flow. My 911 has been way more fun than gold and
      Increased in value every year..

      Delete
  11. Here's a guy that's on the cutting edge of the futures markets:

    Jim Comiskey

    ReplyDelete
  12. Hi Cortopassi

    I hear ya!
    I'm in the same boat (as is many others here). Only in 40 years I will be long gone.
    I have shorted gold and am considering covered call options for the shares.
    How much more bearish can this get?
    Question for you Dan:
    Have you ever seen a market this beat up before?

    ReplyDelete
  13. My fear is some of these dollar miners will be penny stocks by the time gold bottoms. Wall Street will pounce then, and make more mega bucks for yatchs and Hampton homes.

    ReplyDelete
  14. It's still neutral to me...I don't post another chart to say the same thing...I don't see a side convincingly winning at the moment. Wait and see. Can go both ways from my chart's point of view...

    ReplyDelete
  15. @Dan...we are on a support area, rather horizontal around 1285-1300 $.
    I don't have the Platform to check futures on an hour time unit, but can you tell us if maybe you see a divergence on the volumes such as OBVD an units like 2 or 4 hours candles?

    I'm asking because maybe if prices bounced several days on this area but the OBVD is going up, it could be a sign that big hands are accumulating and we mau bounce...on the other hand, if OBVD goes down, well, maybe this support will give way soon?

    ReplyDelete
  16. http://i39.tinypic.com/1z6qyvr.jpg

    Here is what it gives in daily candles...I have a small upwards divergence on the OBVD...so, bear trap? :)

    ReplyDelete
  17. Wow, looks like a the 4th quarter meltup/boom is now happening.

    And commodity prices are still stagnating near 2 year lows and interest rates are up a little but still at 45-year lows.

    Never underestimate the magnificent impact of:

    - Infinite Fiat
    - Bear baiting from "manufactured crisis"
    - Hundreds of "gloom and doom" predictions keeping investors on the sidelines
    - FOMC "jawboning" to steer key markets at will
    - Thousands of underperforming mutual funds = "year end markup"
    - Hundreds of underperforming hedge funds = "performance anxiety"

    ReplyDelete
  18. The shares, of course, will not rise until the debt ceiling is lifted and the govt is reopened. When these "rumored" events happen, the shares will be free to rise on the "news." It's classic stuff. The shares are where I want to be. Mining costs are dropping, while gold drifts, and overall inflation remains tame. This is Nirvana for the shares. Hopefully, we can settle into a nice, peaceful deflation here, akin to the 30's, when Homestake and Dome reaped huge profits on a gold price stuck at $35. Don't think investors are ready for hedging yet, but Dan's right -- this is a scenario where hedging will work. And, yes, the shares turning higher relative to gold is the all-clear signal we need to see -- and I think it will come as the shares move higher against an ever-so-gradual drop in the gold price. My guess is that in the next 2 years, fortunes will be made in the shares while holders of the physical grind their teeth in frustration. My guess.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Now that would be carmic justice. And I think you just might be right. I even read comspiracy theories here daily now on how the shares are horted by "the evil shorts" so that they will be bought up at pennies to the dollar by the "banksters" - the reverse of 2011 when all the bugs knew the shares would make em fortunes. All the bugs shorting the shares now will regret.

      Delete
  19. DOW soaring like a maniac, insiders already know debt ceiling will be raised and everything is cool again.

    ReplyDelete
  20. To be really honest, GDX/HUI are not exactly getting smashed....even if gold goes to 1270-80, it'll probably be a very short-term and weak drop for the PM shares....i remember when NUGT would be down minimum 6 to 10 percent on tiny 10 dollar gold drops and today it doesnt suprise me if the shares are basically unchanged/green....there does come a point when there is an exhaustion of sellers and being short becomes very unnerving...im out for now and want gold lower to buy back but i wouldnt be that worried if i was holding long...debt ceiling raise (even temporary) has to raise gold/share price otherwise nothing makes sense anymore

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think you a bang on with your thinking.

      A market eventually will exhaust itself on the downside..the gold miners may have simply run out of sellers.
      The banksters will have to move on to another market to blow up.

      Delete
    2. thanks...syria is discounted but not over, same as iran, QE is obbviously going to continue (they have their washington excuse not to taper, even though they admited they wouldnt taper before any shutdown-debt ceiling excuse), yellen is in (a lady whose entire academic and practical career is based on printing money + bernanke can leave a little hero), global QE and calls from japan, china, india, all those point to more printing, gold and shares already at daily new record lows, ..well, its obviously quicker to list reasons for gold to drop, cos i basically cant think of any except uber-short term chart pattern...if october 17 is debt ceiling raise day, theyll obviously come up with it just before (not worth waiting a little later cos it can really get dramatic, the politicians are having a bit of fun lets be honest, except a few like Cruz, rand paul, etc..the others still vote for empire and entitlements) then so that leaves about 5 trading days before gold explodes to the upside...i hope i can get NUGT at 39 and im going to just sip some tea all day and just watch james bond movies (probably goldfinger) till our yellow mate jumps up...

      Delete
  21. I bought some DIA 2 days ago...I'm not an insider.
    We all know they cannot default...they own a thing called a printing press.
    The DOW is back stopped by the FED..someday this will all end very very badly.
    Until then..
    The punch bowl will be refilled....the party continues. Some folks came close to almost sobering up !!

    ReplyDelete
  22. Why can't the mining shares simply be sniffing out the realities of a massive plunge in gold and silver production?
    Why can't the divergence between the miners and the metals diverge even further? If you look at a chart of the XAU going back to the mid 1990s, and even ignore the spikes, the XAU is LOWER by almost 20%. But gold is still up over 4 times, and silver is up over 5 times.
    I think we are dealing with an industry that can't control costs and can't deal with the reality of peak resources-- at least for now.
    Whatever correlations may have existed coming out of 2008 (in terms of the stocks leading the metals, etc.) may have been a one off event and I am not sure how relevant they are for the future price of the precious metals, but I guess we will see.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. that might be true, but if gold goes up just 1 percent on any given day, you can be sure the shares will be up more than 1 percent..so even if shares dont outperform the run up as in 2008, (which i think they will) itll still outperform gold on the way up fo sho!

      Delete
  23. Looking at the funny side of this, imagine a large belly man (FED) balancing on a beach ball (GOLD) trying to keep that ball pinned beneath him all the time the water is rising. That ball will find equilibrium not sure when but it will. Gold n gold stocks values looking better and better buy while the sale is on!

    ReplyDelete
  24. You only need to know one fundamental to be a master trader in this market.
    Will the FED keep printing or not.
    This means that anyone can make easy money buying US equities..no need to look at earnings, P/E ratios etc....all that is nothing but baloney.
    We all know that easy money never has a downside..don't we?

    ReplyDelete
  25. What went on today was a major psy ops. The govts around the world, and not just the USFed/USTreas are in on it. The globalists know that the "patriots" and those who do not trust government are the ones owning gold. they will make anyone who is long or unhedged pay dearly. They know that most of these people are not sophisticated or liquid enough to hedge.

    They are afraid of the gun owners and gold owners. So, they will bankrupt them first, and burn them out. It is working so far. By the time gold goes to where it's going to go, most will be.

    I added a contract short at 1296.5 as it was apparent that they could not lift it to 1300 again. I did not think they would stage a late day collapse. However, I am short twice my physical long. I will cover half at close and try to reinstitute those shorts after we get any overnight Asian lift, which may bring it to 1293-95. Watch for a sad drop when Europe opens again after 2am.

    I would short GDX here, but it's been so punished already, that the risk/reward clearly benefits shorting the gold price as it plays catch up to the shares.

    I think silver may outperform gold, since it is 90% industrial offtake. That should provide a cushion.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Hi Eph

    I have been using GLL for my physical short postiton. I may double up on that.
    You are right about GDX, the gold shares were horribly over sold. Most of the miners are at cost of production.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. miners were never known to be the savviest of businessmen, Dean; swb in sparks

      Delete
  27. Today was proof positive that Bernanke/Yellen/Obama are in full control.

    Any "Armchair Anarchists" in the GATA or CIGA camp who have tried to fight city hall must be near broke by now.

    There has never been a better time in history than the last 5 years than to invest on the same side as the big institutions and the U.S. government where the wind is at your back.

    Anyone trying to fight City Hall has learned a painful lesson that will probably scar them the rest of their lives.

    I'll give a lot of these gloom and doom, gold shilling websites the rest of the year, after that most of them will go dark from lack of interest.

    And not one single apology will be uttered.

    Dow 18,000 here we com.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Those of us who called for lower GOLD and SILVER prices were deemed "shills" and "trolls" by these Brother John F'ers and SGT BS'ers in the shilling silver community. I just searched an old popular place where they inhabited that is no long even on the web:

      www.silvergoldsilver.com

      GONE! :-)

      GLL and ZSL looking good.

      Delete
  28. Mark
    Get over it...you will never ever hear an apology. Nobody forced you to read them or follow their advice.
    Even if you lost your life savings in a managed account at a broker house (MF Global) you will never ever ever get an apology...ever!!
    Someday the lambs in US equities will be harvested and they too will lose like we did...no apology will be issued by the US Government or the FED.
    Did any of the Banks ever say "I'm sorry" after being bailed out to the tune of 100's of billions...no. Has the FED ever apologized for spewing forecasts that are not remotely close...never...ever.
    Did the people who lost their jobs and houses because of reckless FED policy ever get an apology...no..not ever.
    The wind will be at the backs of those living in the fools paradise of unlimited printed money until it ends..when it does..it will be ugly.
    Ride the wave while it lasts but be sure to get out ahead of time, and don't hang around to see if anybody apologizes.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Even if this "fools paradise" is foolish and crashes it will be the same for everyone and there will be no financial "safe haven." Real money is supposed to be this gold but the financial elite have just concluded their own presentation of how they can destroy that which they choose.

      I've heard some say this is "God's money." If it's really God's money what does he buy with it? He actually created it out of nothing. Think about it.

      Delete
  29. Hey Mark
    I wasn't being critical of you personally. A lot of us are in the same boat and feel the same way.
    I'm with you on the DOW, my guess is that it will break 20k, and yes, I have been shorting gold and long on the DOW.
    Caution is still warranted, the markets are broken and we are all playing in a giant casino owned by the banks.

    ReplyDelete
  30. I guess everyone can spot the beautiful Head and Shoulders (not reversed) with a neckline around 1290 area...the theroritical "potential" for this figure is even a bit below the last lows, around 1160 $.
    Volatility decreased, prices coiled, market could be ready to uncoil, and if it chooses to go down, we may reach 1230 pretty quickly.
    1230 because the Bollinger 100 periods are starting to form a range on the daily time unit, so it's a pretty nice first target if we break through 1280.

    Remember that the closer we get from 1180, the easier it will be to try to destroy this support with a massive strike, just as they did on april.

    My sympathy to all long-term phyz holders.
    Meanwile in France, the bastards raised the tax on selling gold again...from 8% to 12%. It's so easy to cap the demand if you simply TAX the sales. Why would you bother confiscating gold? Just tax it higher and higher when one wants to sell it. You will also dissuade would be buyers. Bastards, really.



    ReplyDelete
  31. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-10/moscow-exchange-plans-gold-to-silver-trading-to-broaden-appeal.html
    I was going to learn Mandarin, but maybe I shouldn't...

    ReplyDelete
  32. This QE money is not circulating.
    Money is stuck.
    Velocity of money is decreasing.
    It's stagflation, not inflation for now...

    http://www.businessinsider.com/bank-loan-to-deposit-ratio-2013-10

    ReplyDelete
  33. 1282...doesn't look good.
    Market ready for acceleration, Bollinger Band Inf on the 2day scale is giving way down...
    I know Sinclair was putting some samples of Henry V rallying his troops with insirational speech (along with Braveheart) too keep the spirits of the gold bugs up, but may I suggest that without pragmatism right now, the speech's outcome may also be this one :

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5mDaIsz-iU8

    Being long physical gold doesn't mean one has to be passive in the way one protects that asset dynamically through different ways of hedging. Timbeeeer...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Truth is, its not going to look good until it takes out 1520. But there will be times when someone can say something more positive about the price until it gets to 1520. If it gets there. Good chance that by the time the debt is 22 trillion, it should be there.

      Delete
  34. From 1282 to 1259 in a tick is pretty insane.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "1282...doesn't look good.
      Market ready for acceleration"...

      Delete
  35. dayum.....what a smackdown! on new news? 1277 got taken out...nwhats next support then, 1240?...what exactly would represent a double bottom? would it necessarily have to go to 1180 or would 1200 or a bit higher be enough? I didnt think it would go this low, thank goodness im out, but i dont think GDX will go too much lower for the drop in gold, probably in the 22's, but not much more than that...friday is always quite horrible for gold, as is Monday, psychological game days...debt ceiling will be raised next week though, maybe thats what this is about....just like the pre-non-taper smackdown...good call from dan as usual, but i expected atleast some news to excuse this drop.......gold is staging a courageous comeback at the moment but i dont think it can take now what is resistence at 1277 ish area....

    ReplyDelete
  36. And the Conspiracy moves forward... Once gold drops to where it will end up I will have to get another profession, and live a real life. The easy money will be gone. Up 8k in trading account since last night.

    The official dumps keep coming. 1260 is new support (for today)....

    ReplyDelete
  37. Hilarious.

    The only time gold will go back up is if the "acclaimed experts" stop predicting ridiculous, incredulous, and wild-eyed price targets for gold and silver. They also might as well stop talking about fantasy Endgame scenarios like "The Great Reset", LOL...

    The whole thing is getting comical, I'm amazed these guys have any reputations left.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Don't worry so much about GOLD. SILVER is going to $110 next:

      King World News

      Just listen to Stephen Leeb.

      Delete
  38. again, despite drop in gold, GDX and NUGT not down too significnalty..this used to warrant a 20 percent move in NUGT/DUST, at the moment, its about 4 percent...which is sometimes the amount it moves daily no matter what gold is doing

    ReplyDelete
  39. Much of what the gloom and doomers say is correct to some extent, but gold will still drop. Do what I do, short it and take the profits and buy more.

    The NWO wants to drive us insane, and if one is long gold over the next couple years, they will. Many may be right with the gloom and doom, but we will be broke. Do what I do, beat them at their own game.

    Like I said, the system will hold up until the end of the decade when they get their war to wipe the slate clean. Just make sure you are not down wind from important defense centers. This is why I chose not to settle in CO Springs, though it's beautiful there.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's precisely what "they" do.

      Short paper.
      Make paper money.
      Convert it by buying the real stuff and storing it.
      When the end game comes and all paper stuff disappears, they'll be the only ones to possess huge quantities of the only stuff which will still be worth something...real gold.
      Simple game plan. Works perfectly with the lemmings in front of them.

      Delete
    2. Hubert, Eph et. al. appreciate the tips--I bought out of the money puts on GLD (before the recent drops) to hedge my phys and sleep much better.

      Delete
  40. Who do you think has the firepower to do this? You cannot go up against the Beast. It is like standing in front of a tsunami, hoping to shiled those behind you.

    This is just not the USFed. This is global. Read this artcile from Zero Hedge. BTW who writes for Zero Hedge? Can you trust them? Maybe their servers trace back to a federal database... However, this article is accurate. I saw a $10 crossed market on my screen, wondering if my platform seized up.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-11/stop-logic-gold-slam-was-so-furious-it-shut-down-cme-trading-again

    You cannot trust anybody in these last days. Moreover, this is not a battle you can win, unless, of course, you are aligned with the globalist objectives.. The first one is to acheive a lower gold price. Look at what they did this morning. They will win....

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    1. After doing research on physical bullion dealers I learned that every time anyone would purchase an order of bullion they would short the market with an equal amount of a futures contract. When I heard that I knew something was askew. If the SGT BS'ers and BROTHER JOHN F'ers would convince all America to go out and buy monster boxes the dealers would short the market so much it would actually drive the price down. I wish other industries would do this so the price of consumer goods would continually get cheaper. Why do they only do this with GOLD and SILVER? Can someone please explain that? Meat prices should be going down along with other grains and softs. Just put an alert in for GOLD below $900 and SILVER below $15 and then see if anything changes with President Hillary Clinton.

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    2. They do it mainly on Gold because Gold is the only alternative to Fiat currency system, and the only protection against currency debasement, because unlike Meat, Corn, etc...it can be used a a store of value.
      It is the alternate currency to fiat, therefore to the dollar.
      By essence, it threatens the game plan of the currency debasement idiots, because it is a question of trust, confidence.
      Paper is paper, unless you trust it to be something more...

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  41. Hamid.. do you have any TEAM A autos . I am looking for a Tsla used,priced higher than 5 gas burners. One that takes 3 days to charge, cannot last over 200 miles, is unreliable, costly to repair, yet with my government job I can keep it in the garage and blow my ego up and deceive the myself and the world. Got any?

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  42. In the extremely unlikely event of a "Bail In' occurring here in the United States, any losses of 10% - 15% due to government confiscation will be more than made up by another 20% rise in the S & P 500 Index.

    On the other hand, those who "got out of the system" and are are holding gold or gold share certificates could continue to see their wealth plummet.

    Very sad state of affairs for those who were bamboozled by all the gloom and doomer websites.

    Funny how Dan Norcini managed to retain his credibility and the amount of hits to this website have skyrocketed, while visits to the "other" websites have probably sunk to new lows.

    Congratulations, Dan, and thank you for maintaining your credibility.

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    1. Mark how much are you down? My gold investment account was up to 188K at it's peak, and if I never jumped out I would be worth $2900 today. Just surreal to even think about it. I wasn't into trading during the dot.com's but assume that's what it must of been like.

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    2. And what is even more surreal is the miner I was in was a market darling at the time running from 3.50 to 39, now it's hovering in the 7 range.

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    3. @mark

      1) what makes you think that the haircut will be 10% only? Do you have a cristal ball? What makes you think the haircut will be seamless to every part of the population? Why not 50% one off hair cut of your assets? Why not a bankruptcy of your bank, of your clearing house were you hold not allocated shares (as some websites you seem to hate are warning about)? I don't know, your country has liabilities of around 100 trillion $...you think a 10% haircut will be fine? In the last 2 years you have better return on capital, but what about return of capital?

      2) is it about being invested 100% in gold or 0% in gold? I thought most investors would recognize the opportunity to be invested in gold for a certain percentage of their assets, as an insurance. Let them trade stocks with the remaining part of their assets if they like, and make good performance. After all, if you invest 30% of your assets into physical gold and stop watching its prices because it's not an investment, it's an insurance, you simply focus on the remaining 70% and keep managing it the way you want.

      I maintain that imho, one has to be totally out of his mind NOT TO have gold (physical) as part of his assets now, out of the system, whatever its price. I can disagree with some gold bug's blogs here and there, but I see this part as mere common sense.

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  43. Mark

    Yep, I almost fell for the GOTS.
    I have physical in my possession, maybe I can trade some for a car or motorcycle. I am still up on the physical so I will probably start to cash out.

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  44. Dan, Mark paid you a well deserved compliment and you should be proud. And as far as the charlatans go, I just sit back, pour myself a Grey Goose and shake my head in wonderment at their lame thought processes. All take care and enjoy your weekends; swb in sparks

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  45. You know why Dan is still around and is as relevant as ever? Because of this "little paragraph in his resume":

    "Dan Norcini is a professional off-the-floor commodities trader bringing more than 20 years experience in the markets to provide a trader’s insight and commentary on the day’s price action."

    Most general public voices in the gold market today (free blogs, forums) - have they ever traded a decent size account of their own money, speculating commodities for periods of time longer than pigeon's short term memory span? If they did, they would not be fighting the trend for last 2 years since 2011 Precious metals market top.

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    1. Regarding Dan, I would add "and still alive after 20 years and living 100% from his job", which is the best visit card imho :)

      For other blogs, don't be too severe, because they are not focusing on the day's price action, but are long term (years) oriented. Their readers are not the same, neither is their purpose.
      How many usual people have a trading account at all?
      How many usual people even know one can short a stock?
      How many know what is an option, a put, a hedge?
      They are not sophisticated enough to benefit from Dan's advices on the shorter time unit.
      A good thing in this blog is this forum is giving us a chance to share and learn the basics of T.A, be it short term or long term, plus it gives us a real possibility to talk about fundamentals, forums open to all members, which you won't always see on other blogs.

      So the only thing you can recommend to a mass of very unsophisticated people who act like lemmings is to buy some physical gold, unleveraged, as an insurance against a systemic collapse. No way to be much more subtle if you want the core message to be reached and understood by as many people as possible.

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  46. Look for a good short scalp into the 4-4:15 GLD close....

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