It cannot get into heaven and it does not yet appear to be headed down into hell. So it goes nowhere bouncing up and down, without any apparent rhyme or reason. In short, trading gold right now is a complete waste of time unless you are a glutton for punishment or have the absolute shortest of time spans before pulling the trigger on an ultra short term trade. Translation - unless you want to scalp this market, leave it be until it makes some sense.
I still feel that the intermediate and even the short term trend is down but with the sort of wild intraday price swings it is currently experiencing, there are better opportunities elsewhere to trade.
It does seem as if there is a large enough contingent of dip buyers who are trying to keep it levitated above $1300 to make it tough for the market to actually break and stay below that psychological support level. Based on the current action in the mining shares however, odds favor a breakdown of that level sooner rather than later in my view. While the HUI did manage to close near the high end of today's session ( some of the individual stocks that comprise this index actually closed in the green), the chart pattern on the HUI still looks atrocious. I would want to see some improvement in the miners before feeling any positive vibes toward the actual metal.
It was rather comical reading the comments today from those who were foolish enough to try offering reasons for the inexplicable. First was the news that Yellen - Ms. Dove of Doves, will be heading the Fed. That was viewed as friendly towards stocks and somewhat towards gold. Then the market seemed to focus back on the partial government shutdown and upcoming debt ceiling battle and that brought out the forces of deflation. Then we got some employment numbers from private firm ADP. "Go this way and that way and this way and that way".
When the FOMC news hit the wire gold was all over the place as traders tried to make sense of the oracles who sit on that committee.
Some FOMC governors wanted to taper; some did not; some were concerned about the Fed's credibility; some were concerned about this and some were concerned about that. Some wanted to taper before year's end. All of this is moot in my view because what some may or may not want is rather immaterial in my view. What is not immaterial and what will ultimately have the final say is the economic data coming our way. I repeat, it is difficult for me to see them tapering anytime soon based on the anemic, miserable state of the US economy.
Back to the charts only briefly for the reasons explained above ( it is stuck in a range trade).
Price remains stuck in a very broad range between $1280 or so on the bottom and $1340 or so on the top. Within that broad range is a secondary range with $1300 or so on the bottom and $1320 or so on the top. Bulls have no chance of getting anything going until they clear $1340 and keep the price from falling back below that level. Bears have no chance of getting anything sustained to the downside until they push through $1280 and prevent price from recapturing that level.
The current bias is negative based on the indicators presented with those favoring the bears. Additionally, volume on up bars is lackluster reflecting the lack of bullish enthusiasm.
Simply put, I am not sure how much longer this will continue but until one side or the other grabs the ball and runs with it, we appear to be stuck in limbo. Hopefully something will change soon and we can get some sort of decent trend, even if it is down to at least escape this nauseating go-nowhere - do nothing market.
What I am watching is the slide in crude oil prices along with lower gasoline prices. That is certainly not contributing any upward pressure on the overall commodity complex in general which continues to slide lower. It is difficult to see gold managing any sort of lasting rally as long as this index drifts to the downside.
"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat
Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput
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