“Woe to the land whose king is a child and whose leaders are already drunk in the morning. Happy the land whose king is a nobleman, and whose leaders work hard before they feast and drink, and then only to strengthen themselves for the tasks ahead”. (Eccl 10: 16-17)


"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


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Friday, October 11, 2013

Investment Demand for Gold in the West continues to Weaken

Love or it hate it, the largest gold ETF on the planet, GLD, is still one of the best, if not the best indicator of the size of Western investment demand for the yellow metal.

As noted here many times now, the reported gold tonnage in this vehicle, continues to sink.

You thus have two key indicators here in the West, GLD and the HUI or index of gold shares, both of which are telling us that gold has fallen out of favor with the investment class. Whether we like this or not is immaterial. It is a fact and reflects the sentiment towards gold here in the West. To be successful at trading one must learn to accept what the market is saying even if you disagree with it. That means becoming a hard-nosed, thick-skinned realist and tuning out anything to the contrary.

When sentiment turns, you either turn with it or lose money. It is really that painfully simple.

Now, you may be correct in the long run and your view may ultimately be vindicated, but you could end up broke by then. Let the market itself speak to you and tell you when it has come around to your way of thinking. Otherwise, you are apt to look as foolish as someone spitting into a hurricane. It may make you feel better than you are defiant and standing tall, but all you are going to end up with for your effort is a wet face, courtesy of yourself!

Here is a chart of the total tonnage of GLD. Notice how it continues to sink lower and lower. Until this disgorging of gold is over and the trend reverses, rallies in gold will be sold. While Asian demand will be strong, in and of itself that is insufficient to reverse the disgorging trend here in the West.

55 comments:

  1. Thanks, Dan - you're doing a great service here. Given that many of your readers know you from jsmineset, TFmetals, and King World News (that's how I found this site), your sober counterpoint to the "Great Endgame" warnings (however justified they may be) is much needed.

    The head and shoulders on the weekly chart looks awful. (So awful, I'm now beginning to wonder if it's a painted trap; who in his right mind would go long gold or gold equities here??)

    But I also note a very bullish pennant on the 10-year yield/silver ratio chart, so I'm cautiously going to trade it, debt ceiling issues be damned.

    ReplyDelete
  2. The current bear market in gold would be much easier to take, if for instance, there was a balanced budget, entitlements were under control, interest rates were not ZERO, there was no 17 trillion dollar debt. And on and on. But all those factors that could create a bear market dont exist now. But it doesnt stop the bear market. Difficult situation. Did I mention trillions of QE?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Extreme bearish sentiment psychology is over-riding the fundamentals, it would seem.
      At some point, the tension created by this false situation will be reversed. Who can say how long this delusion will prevail?

      Delete
  3. Why is the HUI not forming a possible double bottom?

    ReplyDelete
  4. LOL leaf reading based on end-of-day painted charts... momo trading at its best! I guess momentum ignition of a split second wire tripping 2700 contracts of Gold sold is irrelevant.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hi

    Thanks for the good work you are doing in this site. I am so bearish gold. I am mindful though of the fact that when the common man (me) is convinced of something the opposite will happen. However I cant help but think aloud
    How can gold be going down despite all the world QE
    How can gold be going down despite all the world debt especially the US
    How can gold be going down with a government shutdown in the US
    where is the 'safe havenness' properties of gold?

    Like someone who has gone bonkers I ask the above questions and provide the answer as well.

    Gold has no safe haven qualities now
    Gold is no longer an inflation hedge.
    Gold is just an ordinary shiny metal good only to give to our partners as a sign of affection

    That is just me...

    ReplyDelete
  6. Dan -

    You've been saying that the bullion banks can't be held responsible for the counterintuitive decline that's been going on in the PMs since the Fed announced QE4 in December 2012. I'd be curious what you (and others here) make of Andrew Maguire's latest piece on KWN. Here's a summary of his important points:

    "This week it was all about a cornered Fed … intervening in the paper gold markets again  … defending the dollar

    "The Fed operates ... through two primary ‘agent’ banks.  They, in turn, time naked short gold sales in the futures market to coordinate what the Fed is doing in the more opaque foreign exchange markets.

    "The bullion banks … have insider knowledge, and can easily discern where it’s best to surgically add large synthetic supply … to force the paper market participants to capitulate longs ... It also draws in other participants to go short. [emphasis mine]

    "Goldman Sachs are up to their old tricks again … suggesting ‘It’s a slam dunk sell.’  Now, actually this is a bullish sign ... they are approaching ‘sold-out’ already, and they are looking to take the other side (long) of that trade"

    [end]

    I personally rarely read KWN and especially don't take Maguire seriously as a short term prognosticator, first because Bron Suchecki (and others) have revealed serious weaknesses regarding his understanding of the futures market (see here if interested), and second because I catalogued <a href="http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2012/12/london-trader-redux.html>here</a> his poor track record of KWN predictions (and they've been worse in the year since i posted that).

    On the other hand, what he's saying above makes a lot of sense <i>prima facie</i> to someone (like me) with no expertise in the (potential) mechanics of price suppression. I'm curious what you think, though, since I've read you make arguments supporting both sides of the debate.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you look what a blogger writes about that's very enlightening.
      And also the way a person writes is also very telling.
      Bron Suchecki: "I would have thought paying members deserve better." When he writes about Maguire. But that Maguire offers a service which has been very profitable for the customers is not worth his concern. The CV is!
      Suchecki is also not concerned about the billions of dollars that were given to the banks! And he isn't worried about the bonuses, paid by the taxpayers...

      We are not talking about a mainstream media outlet. We are talking about BLOGGING. Where people have teh freedom to write their personal opinion!

      What does Bron Suchecki, write about?
      Does he write about the manipulated commodity markets? About the rigged energy markets? How the central banks manipulate interests? How the biggest marekt in the world, the bond market is a joke? Does he write about the strange secrecy about the gold reserves?
      Does he write about the strange "gold and gold receivables" balance sheets which are against all accounting rules?
      Does he write, how Future contracts are created?
      Does he write about the strange trading in PMs?
      No!

      He suggests his readers, that the gold market was not manipulated!
      In a world where every market is manipulated, where the big banks hold governments as hostages or are the government, such a person is putting his energy as a blogger against the few people without resources and without any power, people that try to wake up the world what is about to come with a financial Ponzi scheme?

      I don't want to say that all people in the PM "community" are trustworthy, by far not. But if in this regime a financial blogger has nothing better to do than to discredit the critics of the regime, then I know everything about him!

      Delete
    2. you need to relax son; do your own thinking; sparks of course

      Delete
  7. looking at the flagpole on the weekly charts, gold has an objective of $600; swb in sparks

    ReplyDelete
  8. Screw the west, Dan, the west is broke. Money and gold are moving east. When the fraudulent western paper markets can't deliver real gold, they will collapse. Eastern gold markets are opening in Singapore, Russia, China, etc. They'll take over and sell real gold to real clients soon.....

    ReplyDelete
  9. If gold is in a panic sell...who is buying?
    Certainly no one on this website.
    I do not know a single person who is NOT short right now. I do not even know anyone who knows anyone who is NOT short both physical and shares.
    It always makes me nervous when something is so one sided.
    Short Gold, long DOW.
    Whoever is buying at these levels (and yes there are buyers) is either:
    1. Extremely stupid
    2. Drunk and extremely stupid
    3. Drunk and on drugs and extremely stupid
    4. or very very smart

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dean,
      Consider I sold more of my gold position today and feel number four is what the really smart investors are doing today. Yes it has disconnected from fundamentals but that is precisely why it should be getting some interest from others outside gold. People here are so gold phobic whether bear or bull that they will not see the turn as quickly as those objectified investors who can see how none of this makes sense.

      Delete
    2. concord; u need to relax; in the longrun, a little bit of gold and silver will not hurt, but really, do you really think that it will make yo u a fortune or that that the world will collapse? No, so relax, swb in sparks

      Delete
    3. Steve,
      It is not but as I mentioned below at some point. It gets overdone. I trust your instincts but the sentiment is just off the charts. By the way any ideas on how to make a fortune?

      Delete
  10. When Janet Yellen makes her first official statement concerning the planned market intervention she has up her sleeve these markets are going to do a MASSIVE SECTOR SHIFT. What Yellen does remains to be determined and only the Mancini, Capone, Lanskey, and perhaps the Norcini families know what's really going on on the inside...?....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Weather Unit;

      If she calls me first, I will let you know! After all, Luca Brasi is still roaming around out there and you never know about that guy!

      Delete
    2. Just remember I never plan to go fishing with any of those guys. :-)

      Delete
    3. Weather; She is nothing more than another academic like Bernanke. Those behind the scenes will continue to call the shots for her and the rest of the voting whores. That is all; swb

      Delete
  11. ==============IDIOT HERE======Buying Miners again. Bought back some today. Ready for more beatings. Please Beat me some more...MOAR BEATINGS PLEASE..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Balls Wolf...you got serious balls.
      You might be buying the deal of the century.
      remember what Warren Buffet says "be brave when others are fearful and be fearful when all others are brave"

      Delete
  12. No wonder the miners keep going down.

    Way too many keeping the faith

    Compare and contrast to the Russell 2000, everyone hates it and keeps shorting it.

    Ergo, stocks are melting up.

    And gold won't go down until every last CIGA throws in the towel in disgust.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So, as long there is one person who believes in [gold/silver], it won't turn bullish ... If that's true, it could be a very, very long painful ride for the bulls

      Delete
  13. Dan,
    What is it that happens when every one gets on one side of the boat? If this blog tells us anything everyone is one side of the boat. Does mean gold won't gold lower but at some point unless fundamentals change the boat is going to flip over sooner than everyone thinks?

    ReplyDelete
  14. DAN

    I have been reading several sites that claim there has been a series of large sell orders where the size and timing are suspect.
    Apparently this is not a rational way to sell large amounts of anything unless something funny is going on.
    Dan, can you comment on this?
    Has there been suspect selling behaviour in the market?
    Or are we being lied to again?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There isn't the slightest question about it. No one – or entity – would sell hundreds of tons of gold all at once when the markets are asleep, unless the intention is to drive the price lower.

      It has happened multiple times in recent months, and there simply is no other plausible explanation.


      Delete
    2. Thanks Paul
      Really hard to sort through the stuff we read. MSM is Pollyanna and the rest is Apocalypse now.
      If someone is driving the price lower then, who is the seller and who is the buyer?

      Delete
    3. The antidote to giving the seller profit on that moronic sale would be to throw it right back at him. Buy hundreds of tons of gold all at once when the market is asleep. So instead of down 50 on the day, its up 50 on the day. Just as the seller thought he could get some mileage out of a price below 1300, a buyer could get mileage out of a price above 1350. I think it could be done easily, if someone wanted to.

      Delete
  15. Why do you people ask Dan questions? He never replies.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Actually..he does.
      Keep in mind the guy has a life and this site is free to us but costs him money to maintain...not to mention the time to monitor us morons to make sure we behave like adults.

      Delete
    2. Actually he does and you are wrong; swb in sparks

      Delete
  16. Dan, in what form do you keep your _Savings_ in ?

    i.e., after you're done making money as a trader. Your Nest Egg.

    We don't need the exact address :-) but it would be interesting how you PRESERVE wealth.


    I'm thinking that your approach to preserving wealth might be different from your approach to making money.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Cop Watcher... you ask the question; "how (do) you PRESERVE wealth."

      Is anybody doing that these days? All I have seen with the idea of preserving your wealth, which all the folks on KWN, Morgan and Turk keep preaching is full of methane gas, and it stinks.

      MY "wealth" is on one side of the boat and the water is coming in and sinking the ship. I am sick to my stomach and would like to walk off the end of the plank.

      I think selling now is better than waiting for gold to hit $900 or lower, instead of dreaming that "wow, look, I'm preserving my wealth by holding and stacking."

      See you at $900.

      Delete
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    ReplyDelete
  18. Hi Nate,

    So sweet of you to leave me your phone, email and http address.
    If I see you ever again show disrespect to this blog by posting while shit ads, I swear to god I'm going to launch such a DDOS on your whole website that you will have to go looking for what it means and how to protect from it with tears.
    I don't mind setting it up, I'm lacking a bit of training, and from where I am now, I wish you good luck to file a complain.
    You've been warned.

    ReplyDelete
  19. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Dear all,
    The short-term support at 1280 is broken. Let's try to see the big picture and analyze the case for gold.
    First, we can be adamant that some huge powers have a vested interest to maintain gold in a downtrend market.
    - because gold threatens the trust in the fiat currency system from which those powers get their strength and profits.
    - because shorting gold with a huge leverage as long as physical delivery can go on, ensures big profits to the ones using this strategy.
    - because gold is the traditional "safe haven" in times of uncertainty, as a store of value, and thus, breaking the status of gold as a "safe haven" is a game about control, to force population to keep using a weak, constantly debasing fiat currency, and to accept a situation of negative interest rates and constant loss of purchasing power. It is a game of progressively turn the middle class into a large median class of poor people, earning just enough to live. I'm seing this everyday in a small country whose capacity to fight this system has been annihilated by 3 generations of slavery under Soviet Union : Armenia. A good experiment for the globalists, with 3 million souls earning an average of 200 $ per month when lucky, with huge unemployment rate, and without hope to change the situation.
    So, it's a matter of geopolitics, power, control, and profit.

    Second, how long can this game last, and what is the possible target for gold?
    The aim is to break the neck of gold, by destroying the "Last Hope" support at 1180 $. Goldman is targeting 1050 $, while gold is maintained capped even with potential "good news" :
    http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/yellens-fed-news-fails-shake-golds-lethargy-goldman-targets-1050
    Worse, I guess the gold bulls are still traumatized by the destruction of the 1530 support zone. Now they know their lesson : a strong support can also give way. Panic can generate panic, and a cascade of sell orders with the logic waterfall decline if we get close enough to 1180 and break it.
    http://www.kitco.com/news/2013-10-04/KitcoNews20131004JW--The-Most-Important-Chart-for-Gold.html
    How long can this last? We saw that Physical Gold is necessary to feed the paper manipulation game. And we know that Comex Registered Stocks have been severely depleted since the beginning of the year. But is it enough to stop the game? Maybe NOT. The other sources of gold are numerous : the Bank of International Settlements, IMF, other Western Central Banks surreptitiously selling or selling officially part of their gold to pay back some of their debt...call it MSM, but here are some news, including zerohedge :
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-10/imf-use-gold-sale-proceeds-fund-low-income-countries
    http://www.businessinsider.com/us-treasury-could-sell-gold-reserves-2013-10
    But the Powers that Be have other tools of Massive Dissuasion.
    All they have to do is to increase taxes on the sales of Gold, just as the bastards did in France (it will cost you now 12% to sell most of your coins, unless you are registered and wait for a 10 year amortization program..), plus commission fees of course.
    Or maybe you will prefer the Indian way?
    http://www.moneynews.com/Markets/India-controls-gold-lower/2013/10/10/id/530433
    Did you see this?
    "India's gold and silver imports tumbled to $800 million in September from $4.6 billion a year earlier, according to the Commerce Ministry."
    With such a firepower, with such stakes, I think that 1000 $ is still quite a possible target for gold. Future will tell, but one thing is sure : gold will reach 1000 $ only if it breaks many supports before. So we will be warned. Well, guess what? Resistances are holding. 1350. 1320. Supports are breaking. 1300. 1280.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hubert,
      As an Armenian-American I can tell you that Armenia has suffered unimaginable horrors over the last 98 years. Those three generations under Soviet rule were nothing compared to the genocide that wiped out its population by 85% by the Turks in 1915 to 1923. What really sunk Armenia's economic future was the redrawing of the country's boundaries after the Treaty of Lausanne. It cut the WWI settlement boundaries by more than half and made it a landlocked country. Kemal Attaturk was able to screw over Armenia and keep a country isolated by all but the cold and brutal Soviet Union. That and his persistent denial of the brutal genocide that Turkey has attempted to cover up for almost 100 years.

      Delete
    2. I agree with your statement, Concord.

      Delete
  21. Third, how do we protect from this and will there be a time when gold is back in a bull market?

    And that's quite frankly a very open question.
    When do we know that those guys are about to reverse their positions and go full long?
    At that time of the game, will there still be a way to use paper trading and leverage on gold, or will they have destroyed that system utterly while banking all their profits with huge leveraged short positions, depleting hopelessly the Comex stocks? After they sold and depleted all possible physical gold from the Western system, and they got massive physical positions with their insane profits on the short paper side, will we then see a huge V bottom on the gold prices?
    Anyone has an idea about the end game?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. was thinking of what it would cost china to buy 5000 tons of gold at 1000 an ounce. Correct this if I make a mistake. 1 ounce cost 1000. 16 ounces to a pound. So a pound costs 16,000. A ton is 2000 pounds. So that is 32,000,000. 32 million. So 5000 tons is 160,000,000,000. 160 billion. That is chump change for them. Even if one adds 25% to the price at 1250, that is around 200 billion. I think they carry that amount in their pockets. So its possible that the end game is already here.

      Delete
    2. Hubert; Just about everything you say is factually correct, but unfortunately, it is all "IN THERE". Until price and time square up, we stay with the trends, daily, wkly, monthly and now yearly, all of which are down; swb in sparks and that is all

      Delete
    3. @HdH:
      1. Have you looked at FOFOA's endgame thoughts:
      http://fofoa.blogspot.it/2013_08_01_archive.html

      2. I think they are interesting / food for thought at least. As an aside and a reply to Dean Baturine, Tocqueville (yes company for which John Hathaway manages gold) Asset Management is not "all in" by any stretch. I thought you'd appreciate fellow Frenchman's POV.
      http://tocqueville.com/insights/best-time-own-cash

      Delete
  22. Hubert, I think it depends on your level of patience...the market can confound and misdirect longer than you can envisage. I'm going short x3 leverage on gold until around $1000 then swapping to a x3 long position. I think a bottom may be seen in January (as per Armstrong), but going to have to wait and see on that. The trick will be getting out of the ETFs before the banks start going under. Spreading your money amongst a range of ETF providers will be one strategy I'll use as well as periodically taking out a portion of the funds to buy the real metal. The powers that be can keep kicking the can down the road until they can't, then you'll be thankful for owning real assets (e.g., land, gold, shares, art).

    ReplyDelete
  23. The entities doing this may be using hedge funds to accomplish this task, but "they" are not hedge funds doing it. Who would cross a market by $10 to unload gold. In fact, much of the gold they unloaded was for less than yesterday's 5:15 close. These are globalists, who want to break the back of gold once and for all - forever. I am serious, they do not want gold to have any role (for you and me) in the New World Order. They are buying it up for control. For them it is the cost of doing business to keep their fiat currencies in rolling, because the profits from their paper is MUCH greater than the cost of mopping up any gold as necessary. They are using QE, etc, to buy up the entire mortgage market, huge swaths of soveriegn debt, and real assets. For them buying gold is like a meth cook buying curtains for the windows of his meth lab.

    BTW, I saw where gold was going, and if I did they do. The runup and subsequent run down is the plan to get the people to cough up their gold. It is working.

    I continue to add that Chinese demand should start to weaken within a year or two. Indian demand should began to weaken in earnest (already has).

    The globalists want the bubbles in China burst, too, at the right time. This will facilitate the final touches of the NWO.

    There will be nowhere to hide. Think about this, gold is dropping and I still think that there is no headway on the debt ceiling discussion. It seems Obama could (or intends to) eventually override Congress, and enact Executive Orders to reestablish normalcy. It may even set up a constitutional crisis. Regardless, by the time this happens, the spoos will be firmly over 1700 again and gold will have an 11 handle on it, all courtesy of the globalists, who have all the needed regulations and laws to firmly control all the markets. They got these tools from their contrived collapse five years ago. They control all the regulatory orgs, etc. I don't even waste my time anymore analyzing the COT reports, etc. It's all rigged and managed. It's like asking your kidnapper how the weather is outside.

    There is plenty of metal to cover up the conspiracy and there will only be more, as the bullion banks take the other side of the increasing miner hedging.

    With the supply/demand equation, the cart is in front of the horse, but it still seems to be moving down the road.

    The only take away from yesterday's trade is that when the conspirators stepped away the market moved up into close and I was stopped out of my short scalp. 80% of the time the markets settle near their lows, but yesterday that didn't happen.

    ReplyDelete
  24. I subscribe to several newsletters (no..not the whack job ones)
    They are both telling me to basically back up the truck on DOW, S&P and Russell.
    This before the debt ceiling issue is settled. I guess we can laugh this off like every other pseudo crisis.
    You do not have to pay to get this advice...THERE IS NOT A DOW BEAR TO BE FOUND..the chorus of buy is astounding. No words of caution, just buy, sit back and watch the profits roll in...this investing stuff is easy.
    Yes, I have added to my DOW position, and yes, my screen is rarely red and when it is red I really don't worry about it as I know it is only temporary..it is guaranteed to rise.
    I thought BULL markets climbed a wall of worry?

    ReplyDelete
  25. Lots of opinions on future gold price. However, we need to keep in mind all-in production costs for most gold miners is north of $1000 per ounce including other metal credits they might get in the process. Some are below that number but not many I believe. So supply demand will be a huge factor going forward. For example, First Majestic Silver has reduced their sales....storing dore or stockpiling ore until better prices surface. Some miners are high grading their deposits to deal with low price but that's a time limited thing. Others may forward sell, but limited also. My point is that wild price predictions of under $1000 aren't realistic as supply will drop off a cliff, demand will increase and price rise as a result.
    We all know that there are forces blatantly selling paper gold. Why? Maybe to scare the crap out of gold market, discourage, thwart any market gains in gold market.....protect US$ and reinforce their objective that Dow as the only place to invest. On the other side of the coin we have Asians buying gold in vast quantities. China still is believed to only have 50% or less of what US has in gold reserves....that is if US hasn't already lost some of that thru leasing. China alone is buying up huge percentage of current annual mine supply. I read yesterday that China is calling for a new universal reserve currency. China already has several agreements with other trading blocks to use other currencies to settle transactions. G-20 just met over past few days so would've loved to be a fly on the wall for some of those discussions. I wonder if reserve currency issue came up. China holds 1.27trillion$ of US paper so they're not happy campers at the moment.
    I don't pretend to know more than others but just trying to read the tea leaves I get the distinct sense that the big money machines in the US are trying to paper over all this. Like a cop at an accident scene.....nothing to see here, move along, move along. It's worked quite well but eventually all bubbles burst. The Fed is printing trillions of dollars creating a bigger bubble.....a US$ bubble. I'm sure if we took a survey of just Dan's blog readers on their confidence level of the US$ going forward (how many trillion US in debt....how many on food stamps) I'd be surprised if worry was not present. Gold is the anti-dollar. What to do, what to do.

    ReplyDelete
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