“Woe to the land whose king is a child and whose leaders are already drunk in the morning. Happy the land whose king is a nobleman, and whose leaders work hard before they feast and drink, and then only to strengthen themselves for the tasks ahead”. (Eccl 10: 16-17)


"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


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Saturday, October 5, 2013

Trader Dan Interviewed at King World News Markets and Metals Wrap

Please click on the following link to listen in to my regular weekly audio interview with Eric King over at the KWN Markets and Metals Wrap.

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/10/5_KWN_Weekly_Metals_Wrap.html


112 comments:

  1. Gone with the wind :)
    Don't you live in the South anyway? :)

    Well, that's what Sinclair wrote about it, already 3 years ago :)
    "One thing about these funds – they are generally clueless about the character and nature of the individual markets they trade and their mindless selling and buying creates opportunities for those who know their markets well enough to spot when this computer based selling or buying has pushed prices well beyond fair value and out of sync with the supply/demand picture for that particular commodity.

    One has only to respect the hedge fund community for the enormous sums of money at the disposal of their trading machines and the severe price swings that can result from such sums being shoved into or yanked out of markets en masse. As far as respecting them for any intimate knowledge of the things that they trade – that is a joke. Most of them would not be able to tell you the difference between a wheat plant or a corn plant but they are in those markets jerking them all over the place on any given day.

    For these people, it is all about chasing movement – nothing else matters".

    Gone with the wing indeed.
    I hope you met Scarlett, at least :)

    Have a nice weekend,

    ReplyDelete
  2. Traders chase movement.
    Investors chase value.
    I sure see value in gold at 1180, and even more at 1000 $.
    As a trader, I'll follow volatility and trend if prices krach, and won't catch a falling knife.
    As an investor, like Jim Rogers, I'll accumulate more physical gold if prices collapse under the recent lows.
    I know your game, Mr Montagu.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=peX4dBEF0Vg#t=321

    ReplyDelete
  3. Tom O'Brien at TFNN.com who writes The Gold Report newsletter says that the USDX is about to launch huge to the upside and gold is about to make another "ABC" down to much lower prices, thus explaining why the mining equities could head back down to the 2001 lows.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Probably a few things need to be said about gold before the price crashes as some predict. Unlike the real estate market, the cash gold market is not leveraged. Its all paid for. The only people who need to sell are those that produce gold, and that is probably done with forward contracts and those that need money right now. So if the price does decline, it will be only the leveraged paper market where it originates. If anyone asks, where is the soybean market, it is where the real soybeans are actually traded, and not the futures market. If anyone asks where is the gold market, it would be where real gold is actually traded, and not the futures market. As innovative as a futures market is, without it I dont see how the market could be subject to any kind of manipulation. Unless the Libor scandal just proved that any market can be subject to manipulation at any time. No question about it, the prices of 1200 or 1100 or 1000 would have to be considered as crash prices. I looked up the US dollar in the dictionary and all that was there was a picture of pinnochio.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Physical gold prices and futures prices on COMEX trade pretty much in lockstep. Premiums may vary from time to time +- $40 or so, but for the most part, any large buyer is pretty much able to buy whatever he needs pretty much close to spot prices. The coin dealers I deal with (CNI and NWT) have plenty in stock and always have low premiums, and the prices posted on their website go up and down with COMEX. In fact, if you buy huge quantities, they are almost always able to give you a discount on the premium.

    That pretty much ends the "Physical vs. Paper" stories.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mark,
      It is obviously the situation now : real time price discovey is ensured by Comex and LBMA as long as physical delivery is not disrupted. As most Comex players don't give a damn about delivery, the ratio between open interest and Comex stocks can stretch very high, as we saw recently a ratio of 60 without any huge panic.
      Yet let's simply be logic : if someday Comex or LBMA cannot anymore deliver, then there will be a price discovery on the physical side of gold. It won't be real time. But you will know here and there that if you want real gold in large quantitites, you will have to pay approximately that or that price based on that or that transaction> itwill come from exchanges which can still deliver physical gold, such as Singapore;'s. Then Comex papper gold prices, imho, if still manipulated, will disconnect from physical real prices. So I am both watching Comex paper prices and paper game, and also the depletion of Comex tocks and the presure on physical gold stocks on a longer term point of view, as I think we may someday reach a breaking point.
      I don't know if Dan sees it the same way, but that's my understanding of it for now.

      Delete
    2. Mark,

      I agree with you whole heartedly. Look at APMEX/Kitco, plenty of gold and silver. The US Mint just mints more to meet demand without batting an eye (with one exception earlier this year as there was a delay of about 3-4 weeks, which didn't last long).

      However, we have too many people playing the leverage situation and not taking delivery. For some reason it seems as though storing it is just a hassle. What I find interesting is this:

      Most Financial Advisers in this country state that about 5%-10% of your portfolio should be in PM.

      The US Mint has minted roughly 350M oz of silver (Eagles and America the Beautiful 5 Oz. coins) since 1986.

      The US Mint has Minted about 24.7M oz of Gold (Gold Eagles of all denominations and gold buffalos) since 1986.

      If each adult were to invest (for each member in his or her family) in ONE 1 oz Gold Eagle, and ONE 1 oz Silver Eagle, I firmly believe the Mint would not be able to fulfill the order for years. 360M people are in this country, and I firmly believe that EVERYONE should have at least one of each for safety.

      I think the powers that be would pay a lot more attention to gold if that were to happen. I personally cannot believe how FEW people buy them. Yes, I know several people that think the premiums are a scam and only buy bars. I personally like the coins. Just an interesting thought, that is all (sorry steve)

      Delete
  6. The reason why I speak so confidently about the direction of where gold is going is from my thorough understanding of The Conspiracy for World Government.

    The bottom line is that the globalists want everything you own tracked and traceable, so they can confiscate or impute some sort of levy or lien on that asset. The Patriot Acts and Dodd Frank were implemented for this purpose and had nothing to do with terrorism. They are also attempting to restrict another way of shielding assets – by placing restrictions on Real Estate Contract or contracts for deed. These are private mortgages that purchasers give to sellers when buying a piece of real estate. They forego using banks. The upshot for someone using these is that there is no deed transferred initially, and title stays in the name of the seller until the mortgage is paid off. I prefer using these contracts as there is hardly any way the government can trace this (unless the seller's mortgagee randomly cross checks insurance companies, and no way if the seller owns the property free and clear).

    Gold is still by far the best way to shield assets, as it is untraceable.

    We are getting close to world government and the events that will get us there. The plan to disparage gold was put into effect decades ago and the final step began about 11-12 years ago. My thesis was that the Globalists would drive it up after destroying it for 20 years (the 1980 price spike was intentional as well. It drove a whole generation away from the one true money). As it slowly rose in price people would look at it in disbelief. By the time most got on board it was over 1500. Thus, as the final stages of the financial dictatorship were being put in place, gold could be managed downward in a counterintuitive fashion, much to the bewilderment of the unwashed masses.

    Why confiscate gold if nearly everyone hated it? The plan is to destroy its store-of-value quality, so that confiscation would not be necessary, or would cause minimal reaction. So, by driving it up to 1,900 and bringing it back down to below 1,000 (my guess is that we may see 850 within a couple years), nobody would want it. I understand the conspiracy, and this is why I use their crooked futures market to profit. Please understand that this is the most likely scenario. I have said this for a few years now, and it is unfolding according to plan.

    Why are the shares leading? Because those who understand know where gold is going, but cannot rush its demise. They can, however, short the miners into oblivion first, and it seems to be working out that way.

    Most readers and followers of gold are naïve (even KWN guests do not understand) and these people think in a linear fashion. I mean they see the prevailing gold price and say with these events it should be this price or that price. They do not understand that gold has been managed for decades. Actually, they refuse to believe this, and reject on an a priori basis, anything that conflates with that notion.

    I can go on and on about this, but I won’t take up more time. I am just here to warn the readers of what will most likely happen. If gold is confiscated, it will be at a much lower price and the Globalists will then buy up the miners for pennies and control the whole gold market. All the while people will think that gold was trading freely, in complete disbelief at how low the price went.

    The governments think with one mind, and all want a low gold price, and are conspiring to do such a thing. Besides, the governments buying the gold are the worst market timers and I use them as contrarian indicators. It’s the elite dark force that I discuss that has taken control of the governments that understand this Conspiracy. For instance, the whole German thing is a farce, designed to keep people looking elsewhere. It is all working like a charm. This is why I keep saying to hedge what you have and to continue to own physical gold. In more ways than most think the Globalists consider gold enemy #1. This is why I own it and you should, too.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Eph,
      That's quite an interesting point of view, but my question then is once more back to the stocks.
      Since beginning of the year, Registered Gold stocks melt nearly 80%.
      Since beginning of the year, ETF like GLD lost around 400 tons, i.e around 1/3 of its stocks.
      How long can they suppress the prices before we see a disconnect between paper and physical?
      Or do you think those stocks and figures are irrelevant, and why?
      Have a nice weekend,

      Delete
    2. The west is beginning to hate gold. The western govts (not the dark force) may begin to sell their gold again aftet buying it at 1400-1800. I think we may see some govts sell their gold to raise money (i.e. Cyprus). Not many people here are buying gold domestically. The stores are quiet. If we see an engineered price take down again, demand, though initially would spike, would then plummet. Just like what we say in April. It's a psychological thing with the markets.

      I see the Indian govt trying to assess how much the Hindu temples own. They own as much as 25% of above ground holdings. They are placing huge restrictions on gold. Watch these measures ratchet up around the globe. In the west, the media and futures market play the con game to get people to get rid of gold.

      It really is working. Supply and demand are a measure of price. Look at the asset markets (which are different than consumables) - demand increases as the price increases - very contradictory to Microeconomics 101 students. Real estate collapses, and people walk away from it. Gold collapses and people walk away from it. As the price falls, more and more sellers will come out.

      As world govt is brought in (maybe a few years at most) the suppression scheme only has to run another 3-4 years.

      Delete
    3. What do you mean it isn't traceable? I thought if you bought it through a reputable dealer, they now have to record the transaction. Thx.

      Delete
  7. Eph,
    You make a very good case. Hedging does seem like a good idea, do you recommend doing it in a more leveraged way or just too balance one's holdings. The vehicles available to a person in stock market vehicles are not as efficient but based on your comments I think it is time I consider them as gold is under great pressure.

    Hopefully this debt ceiling and shutdown holds up this week and positioning can be done without chaos.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Unless you can spot price points and levels, I would just hedge to what I owned. if you can make money trading gold already, then continue doing what you are doing. For instance, I own two sets of futures shorts. A fixed one to cover physical and another one to trade around. Most gold traders do this. This is why most gold traders I know trade from the short side, much of their short is covered anyway.

      I know a successful guy who has an open book on a number of commodities, including gold. He trades 4-8 gold contracts at a time, but he owns at least 500 oz.

      Dan is right, sell on strength, until further notice. It has worked for two years and this trend is intensifying as time goes on.

      But we are in survival mode now. We are not gamblers. My trading mentor always told me to short into the strength on most things as this offered the least amount of risk (as long as one is consistent). What I am saying is that as the price falls over time, the potential profit falls and the underlying risk to those shorts increases. I used to be short up to 5 or 6 contracts when prices were 200-300 higher. I no longer go more than 4 or 5. The goal here is to hedge what you have, and take your profits down the road and add to your weight.

      I try not to offer opinion too much, but if you want to have an impact on these satanists, beat them at their own game, and having as much gold BY WEIGHT is the most important aspect to having any impact. That and not being in debt.

      Delete
  8. Rather than getting into a long dialogue on the values of owning gold, best I just offer this editorial I just read which will state it better than I can: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-uncle-sam-is-hoarding-gold-2013-10-04. However, one more point and that is where is everyone getting this $1000 gold price (or even $850) LOL....because Martin Armstrong said it "might" get that low one day? The Chinese have been promoting gold to their countrymen and buying small gram size wafers and buying supposedly 1000 tons this past year (unofficial but probably more) and the above article says uncle sam is holding onto all their gold. So is the sky really falling?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you have huge leverage and can short massive amounts of paper gold during a limited period of time, and if you do that being clever, that is when you are getting near a major support, yes, you can. That's what happened mid-april 2013 and noone gave a damn how much gold China was buying.
      Take a gold chart with quarterly month candles, watch the Bollinger Bands and you will see why one can target 850, technically speaking.
      I would not be shocked to see gold prices at 1000 $ for a small period of time, even if I wouldn't like it.

      Delete
    2. Wait for prices to fall enougyh and the Chinese will be dumping gold. remember the goal of the globalists is to destroy gold store-of-value function. In India and China this mentality is deeply engrained. But if prices fall enough, watch that mentality begin to crack.

      I see the Rupee's drop as beinng planned, and believe its intent is to give the Indian govt the excuse to see gold as an enemy, and to enact measures they normally would not have been able to get away with.

      Delete
    3. Thanks for your point of view, which I find very interesting. However the two things that make me doubt is :
      1) indians giving up their gold, even after a collapse in DOLLAR terms? I still want to see that one happen.
      2) a global government within 4 years? Then I think I'm out of the matrix but in reality I'm still deep inside it.
      I don't say I exclude anything, but that sure opens new horizons for thought...

      Delete
  9. Treat the current Gold pullback as a long term buying opportunity thanks largely to the BIS/FED/CBs who are in an all out fight to keep FIAT afloat as the printing presses, keyboards roll on, Gold is the anti FIAT, remember if FIAT is backed by Gold we don't need the BIS/FED/CBs they become surplus baggage to a healthy economy. Have enough invested in Gold, cash or other assets and weight into allocated Gold on further pullbacks then relax and wait 2, 5, 10 years, no one knows exactly when the market will turn but turn it will and you will retire intact. Leave the BIS/FED/CBs hedge funds do the hard work and pickup the crumbs at a discount. Lets face it goods in this case precious metals are at a discount who cares be it the real or paper market setting the price. In fact the disproportionate size of the paper market enables these fantastic price discounts. Gold at a these prices is a bargain and who knows they may even get the price a bit lower for a better buy before it turns up again. As Dan says if you try and trade these markets you are going to get whipsawed, focus on the war not each battle.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So well written. Assuming the price does go lower, it will just take less currency to buy up the available supplies. As the printing across the globe has almost been infinite, it wouldnt take a much lower price to do the job. Given the condition of the world, and the speed of things, it shouldnt take 10 years for gold to realize its potential.

      Delete
  10. Eph

    If the plan by the globalists is to collapse the price of gold to 850.00 then confiscate it....why on earth would you bother to own any?

    I'm not saying it won't/can't go there but I guess it is a good argument to stay short.
    I was a gold bull for many years but now I am firmly in the Bear camp now.


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dean,
      How are you hedging your gold and gold shares? I am in the bear camp now because even Sinclair last night said gold is going to do well in the medium to long term. So he is even saying without saying gold is going down in the short term. Do you use GLL or DZZ or Dust? What do you use or are you selling your shares and gold here or both?

      Delete
    2. there are many scenarios that can play out, but if it is all about control (the most likely) a price drop, then a confiscation or a reporting requirement implimentation would be a prelude to any official revaluation. Also, any world currency benchmark doesn't have to include gold. It could be specifically excluded.

      But any confiscation is a few years off (and maybe there won't be any, as the globalists do not want to draw attention to gold, as the unwashed will see that and panic). I could be wrong, too. But if gold's store-of-value function is destroyed, they may just let gold be alone, having finally inflicted fatal harm to the gold mindset.

      Bottom line, With all the restrictions being implimented, I find it difficult to believe that the globalists would allow us to freely own gold, unless, of course, they intend to destroy its store-of-value function first.

      Most people look at what the govt is doing with respect to gold as a barometer to see things like capital controls. The US Treasury and USFed purposely pretends not to care about gold, lest they draw attention to it.

      But behind the scenes, it battles it relentlessly.

      It is all about control

      Delete
    3. Come on, you really interpret things the way you want to hear them :) I think after a few wrong calls, he simply stopped making short term forecasts :)

      Delete
    4. Forecast based on empirical observatipn and what makes the.most sense. I hope I am wrong..

      Delete
    5. Eph, I was answering to Concord, not you :)
      Though I hope you're wrong too, because if they manage to control every possible safe haven including gold on the long term, we are doomed. Good night everyone,

      Delete
    6. Hubert,
      I think he should comment on the short term direction of gold because he advised to hold not sell as he does even now. Of course we are all responsible for our own positions but to avoid
      comment on what is a very tenuous situation makes him seem less than straightforward at this time.

      Delete
  11. Dean,

    Exactly. Funny how the "Great Leveling" and the "Great Reset" has already happened in the gold sector. Anyone who is still clinging on to their PM investments have already seen a wipeout which has far exceeded anything that could have been achieved by taking a 20% haircut in a "bail in".

    And those who stayed in the system, fully invested in U.S. consumer discretionary stocks, have already achieved a 32% gain YTD, so a 20% "bail in" would really not have much effect, as long as you were fully invested in Fed-sponsored asset classes such as S & P 500 common stocks.

    I don't think the government is going to stop this decline until every last tin foiler throws in the towel.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anyone in Gold the last decade is way ahead even on this correction, common stocks are hardly above 2000 levels and that's assuming you didn't get wiped out in 2008 which caught many investors who bailed and missed the par recovery.

      Delete
  12. I agree Mark

    My retirement plans are now long gone , I so regret my decision to buy and hold gold (be right and sit tight does not work)
    It wasn't that I was all in or anything crazy like that, the rest of my investments were resource and commodity based and cash.

    Little did we all know that consumer discretionary was the ultimate asset.


    ReplyDelete
  13. Mark

    I might ad however that consumer discretionary will probably also have it's day of reckoning.
    The combination of banisters, hedge funds, government etc have now skewed just about every market. Gold needed a correction, but what we are witnessing now is just all out destruction. Once the gold market is so destroyed that recovery is impossible they will move on to something else that is ripe for attack and is full of investors who do not believe any decline is cause for concern...guess where that might be?

    ReplyDelete
  14. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  15. I meant to say BANKSTERS..not banisters.
    I must say however that despite all the nonesense shrill talk of collapse and chaos, I think that once the debt ceiling gets raised the NYSE will get outright goofy.

    We will no doubt see a massive rally in the S&P so being long should be lucrative...just remember to take the profit and run.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Oh..and don't forget to go short gold.

    ReplyDelete
  17. very bearish comments by far, so we probably open pm higher in a minute

    ReplyDelete
  18. The gold bulls left in the world, 5 of us, know that China and so many others will be buying thousands of tons of gold over time. They have the dollars to buy it. So knowing that, it is incumbent on the 5 of us to obliterate 1400 on the price. Its as simple as that.

    ReplyDelete
  19. LIsten to Jim Willie on Turd Ferguson and you may see why at some point gold will be back in vogue.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ya Jim Willie and the rest of the gold guru are great to listen too when you want to feel better about your gold investment. But let's not kid ourselves, these guys have been making the bullish gold argument for 2 years yet the metal keeps going down no matter the positive fundamentals. It's just gotten to the point where the hoopla is not as enjoyable as it use to be, can't blame a man for that.
      Nice thing about this sharp decline is trading opportunity, gold will likely hit 1100 then rally, then hit 1000 then rally, then retest 1000 again, maybe hit 950, then that might be the bottom. JMHO

      Delete
  20. Bearish comments?...well yah!
    I've only been looking at a red screen for two years now!
    Bearish doesn't really accurately describe how I feel about gold.
    It's so hard to describe the feeling you get when you are invested in something that is universally loathed.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Concord

    I use GLL and DUST for short and NUGT for long.
    GLL is 3x short for the physical and DUST is 3x short on the miners.
    They are for short term only, I never hold them for more than a few weeks.
    I did lighten up on shares and my physical etfs (CEF and GTU) about 4 months ago when I was still up money wise on those.
    I may try options with my broker/

    ReplyDelete
  22. Meanwhile, gold is still above 1310 $.
    Don't bury it too fast :)

    ReplyDelete
  23. Right, GS JPM TBTF are long paper Gold even if they cannot compete with China for physical Gold they see some upside ahead. As an aside Shanghai september Gold +225 tonnes that equates to total world monthly production. Perhaps FED buying in Shanghai paying the $30 premium trying to deliver German Gold you've got too laugh at the FED TBTF crowd.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Up on Monday...however...I doubt it will hold green until end of day. Tuesday it will be down.
    DOW on the other hand...started down but the PPT will ensure up by the end of the day.
    We need to know very few fundamentals..You can bet that Bernanke wants to leave town surfing a wave of equity market euphoria.
    There is no way he will end his tenure with Gold up and DOW down.
    Yellen will want to surf into the position the same way Bernanke left.

    Never forget that they can print to infinity and control any market they want.

    ReplyDelete
  25. GDX/GLD ratio making fresh, new, world record lows this morning.

    Gold strong, but the stocks are struggling, thanks to many juniors like LionGold down over 85% in two days.

    Another hole in the ground with a liar on top, LOL......

    ReplyDelete
  26. You only have to read the headlines in Reuters to know what happens next.
    The headline today "stocks, dollar slide as US impasse frays nerves"

    Now, we all know that the debt ceiling will be raised. This impasse will resolve quickly if their beloved DOW really threatens a serious decline.

    So, we know this little drama will end and when it does the DOW/S&P will go for a rocket ride. The talking heads on CNBC will be absolutely giddy with Bull fever as will most of the planet.
    We all know it's a load of printed rubbish but who cares?
    Ride the wave and make some money.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dean,
      I think the world became to complex to speculate on the market direction, based on Reuters news or one's own short-term conviction. Money flows are what makes the market move, and they can be counter-intuitive.
      Follow the prices and imho give less importance to the other "news" which are much ado about nothing.
      I see gold holding 1300 and standing firm around 1320.
      Let's see what happens next.

      Delete
  27. Exactly.

    As soon as a deal is reached, stocks will explode higher, bonds will get short squeezed, and gold may end up being dragged up kicking and screaming with everything else.

    Hilarious how the U.S. is on the verge of default yet the market is basically laughing at all the gloom and doomers predicting the infamous "Endgame", LOL...

    No different than all the "Peak Oil" hysteria from 2007 - 2008. Turned out to be a lot of fear mongering that resulted in nothing.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not sure about gold being dragged up....no matter what the situation or the news it will be spun as gold negative.

      Delete
    2. DOW is down gold is up, moderately. When a deal is reached gold will get kicked in the balls while stocks rocket. Possibly a tiny knee jerk reaction, then back to the penalty box. JMHO

      Delete
    3. Sad but true prophet. I wish it were not that way..but it is.

      Delete
    4. Gold will get the crap kicked out of it... it's being held here, and if a deal is reached forget about it. Think about it. Despite all that is going on gold is still down here and the mining shares are crap. I just filled up my tank for $2.94.

      Delete
  28. China just loving this FED TBTF Gold discount while China has a holiday FED busy discounting Gold to support USD. Bad news for FED conversion of US paper to Gold starting back today.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Like I said before, when you have the reserve currency you can pretty much do as you please.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Any thoughts on why the BDI (baltic dry index) has been climbing day after day.
    Is it because the cost of operating a ship has gone up? (inflation)
    Or is it due to increased shipping activity?
    Stocks in Dry Ships (DRYS) has doubled since mid August but leveled off.
    A recovery in shipping in early stages ?
    If you all think you took a beating in Gold, look at the chart for DRYS or WLOL...now that's a beating !!

    ReplyDelete
  31. Dean..

    I think the econony activity is increasing as we appoarch end of the years.

    Cheer

    ReplyDelete
  32. If I should keep only two in mind, it would be those :

    "Gold becomes money when money fails."
    "Gold is the financial high-ground when a Global Tsunami hits."
    Jim Sinclair.


    It is possible that a loss of confidence in the dollar happens overnight, or over the weekend. Noone can predict when and if such a systemic event will happen.
    If / when it happens, there will be no way gold can be sustained / manipulated down vs dollar prices imho.
    And it will be too late to buy some.
    I prefer to hedge my physical (should prices show me that they plummet once more with accelerating velocity) than to sell or speculate on the short side beyond intraday time unit...

    ReplyDelete
  33. Just a thought with this US debt crisis I am sure the Chinese will be happy to be paid in Gold rather than paper for interest owing! Anyone hear a piper.

    ReplyDelete
  34. this is a superb interview by Karen Hudes on RT, ex-World Bank 'official'...this lady should be interviewed on KWN...i never post links but this is an exception well worthy of your viewership...its all macroeconomic fundamentals rather than technicals but its nice to hear new(ish) stuff from a new face...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=4hgA9j-4dB0#t=216

    ReplyDelete
  35. Keep in mind that nobody in the investment world is our friend. Sinclair is not our friend, and all he does is shill his gold position. His concern is his, and considering his pedigree I would be reluctant to listen objectively. None of the people shilling gold are looking out for you and me. We are on our own - maybe with the help of Dan or people like Al Martin.

    Keep positions hedged. Goldman and Credit Suise both came out today bashing gold and saying its going to 1,000 over the next year.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-08/goldman-s-currie-says-gold-is-slam-dunk-sell-after-shutdown.html

    Now, I agree with the slam dunk sell - IF the economy does recover OR the debt ceiling issue is resolved in some way.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That would be funny. They "solve" the debt ceiling issue by doing what.. Issuing more debt. And that is the bear case.

      Delete
    2. Sinclair has a big vested interest in Tanzanian Royalty but I still think he's more sincere than all the other gold promoters out there. Only problem is he's a permabull and gold only goes up for him, and you only get biased gold info on JSmineset. He really shot himself in the foot saying 1600 was the line in the sand and that by his birthday (Marchish) it would all be different. And it was a gold collapsed shortly after that by 200, then another 200.
      But just goes to show you no one can influence the markets, corrections will come as surely as anything physics dictates.

      Delete
    3. To all on this thread;

      Jim Sinclair is a personal friend of mine with a large heart. I have already warned that I will not tolerate personal attacks on my friends here on this site. From this point forward, those that do, will see their posts deleted.

      Jim is a man who deeply believes that the current monetary system is fatally flawed. I do too. The difference between us is that he does not advise TRADING GOLD but rather holding it as insurance against the mess that the Fed has created as well as the out of control US government fiscal condition. That is wise advise in my view since no one knows how exactly this is going to end but it is difficult to see it ending any way except badly.

      JIm says time and time again, not to hold LEVERAGED gold or margined gold. That is exactly correct for anyone except experienced traders, whom I might add are all having difficulty trading the gold market right now due to the wild and unpredictable swings in price.

      Yes, JIm has made some poor predictions. One can say that those were wrong. That is a truth and that is part of the risk people take when they make price predictions. Pointing such things out are okay with me but not personal attacks such as "gold shills".


      As for me, I do not make price predictions of any kind nor will I. I have no idea where gold is going from day to day much less from week to week or month to month. The truth is neither does anyone else.

      All I can tell you is that gold is being buffeted by deflationary forces and safe haven demand right now. My concern is that if we do reach a resolution to the current crisis in the US government, gold could come under selling pressure. The flip side is that the risk trade could very well come back on. Who the heck knows?

      Delete
  36. What I find most troubling is that someone with his experience and connections could be so wrong. That was not just a little oops...that was a massive error. I am finding it hard to believe that someone like that gets caught off side to that extent.
    As far as shilling his own gold position I think these wrong calls have damaged his reputation and in turn hurt TNX, not helped it.
    Something just does not add up in all of this.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dean my sentiment exactly. The only conclusion I can draw is we were somewhat guinea pigs in an experiment meaning if everyone held their gold and didn't sell the correction would not happen. But the experiment failed.
      On the other hand as a top notch gold guru was he to tell everyone that gold will correct over the next 2-3 years?? Not really a good idea either as it would be self perpetuating. Besides he wasn't really wrong, so long as gold held 1530 or whatever things might have not fallen apart. I mean gold was actually trading sideways most of the 2 years, then finally gave. Maybe it hovered for so long cause of his influence?? But like I say you can only defy physics for so long before an asset runs it's course. Or maybe indeed it was manipulation like he claims??

      Delete
    2. I believe corrections happen when too many people are on the same side. We were being told that very few people own gold, and that we were 'smart money' for going long on gold ahead of others.

      Now in hindsight we know that everyone who cared about gold was already long gold and there were only sellers left. We were the retail crowd who were left holding the bag and didn't even suspect it.

      Delete
  37. Just imagine what a rock star Jim Sinclair would be if he had told everyone not to worry, trust the U.S. consumer, stay in the system, and pile all your money into a "glam" stock like Whole Foods, which today is printing world record, lifetime highs. That thing has gone from $4/share in 2009 to over $60 today. That means $100,000 invested back then would be worth $1.5 million today.

    Instead, many gold juniors have been completely decimated, some like Jim Puplava's Kimber Resources have been de-listed.

    Never before in investment history have so many "acclaimed experts" been so wrong for so long. I mean, really, this is unprecedented in terms of the amount of money and opportunity lost by the "believers" in the gold story.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. On top of all that he even dissed his former friend Martin Armstrong because he said after 2011 gold would correct to 1150. Armstrong turned out to be bang on. What a lesson everyone learned from all this, even JS.

      Delete
    2. Hi Prophet
      Very hard to know if his influence was enough to stall the decline, who knows.
      If you follow Armstrong he also has stated that in Jan/14 Gold should start it's rise, by that time everyone will be so disgusted that every rally will be sold and very few will enjoy the ride to the top.
      Mr. Sinclair has also stated that only the Banksters will be left to enjoy gold's final rise to the top...very few others will have the courage to hang on. (the odd part is that he himself is part of the Bank family cabal)
      I have no idea which is truth and which is lie anymore. I do know that the Bearish sentiment toward gold is just over the top. Who is buying anymore?

      Delete
    3. The future will tell, Mark.
      One could have criticized the same way in june 1929 a guy who tried to warn about a krach since 1927. "The krach didn't come", he would sing "and those who sold their stocks lost money while I made a nice profit those last 2 years".
      True, until october 1929.
      No prophet can give you the time of a krach.
      I find it unfair to judge him on that angle.
      Until end 2012, he never committed on a bottom or short term direction of gold.
      I don't know what made him commit himself about his birthday as a deadline for the correction, then about 1530 as the bottom which would hold, but he did, and it was a wrong call.
      In the same time, he never advocated for leverage.
      Never. Ever. On the contrary, he alway warned about it.
      So I don't think he committed 100% as you think, or he encouraged so much to buy 100% as you think, because else he would have had no problem saying that you can use leverage.

      Every blog contains some data you find intereting and worth reading, and sometimes some data you will not agree with 100%. It is rarely 100% right or 100% wrong, or if one thinks that way following a blog, one became a brainless sheep.
      Jsminet is, yes, a bit biaised because it shows only gold supporting articles and not the versions of those who temporize. Example, Eric de Groot, who "disappeared" since he warns about waiting further for the bounce. So we know it, we know he can make wrong calls ometimes, so it's simply to us to read and judge what is interesting.
      I think most of it is worth reading, if you don't just become a sheep or a worshipper, which is not what I think he expects from his community.
      Anyway, wow, expectations were really high, because I find him to be quite severely judged, for someone who warns about potential systemic collapse, and tells everybody not to be leveraged but just buy gold as an insurance. That's his core message, and I think he is correct about it.

      Delete
  38. Very true Mark...however...several years ago in an interview Jim was asked what an investor should do if they do not want to buy gold, his reply was "buy general equities"
    Can't remember who interviewer was but I remember it clearly.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Wow, gold stocks getting blowtorched along with credit spreads on T-Bills.

    New, world record low GDX/GLD ratio as we speak.

    ReplyDelete
  40. GS going long while bashing Gold in MSM, follow the money. TBTF getting longer Gold I wonder why?

    ReplyDelete
  41. GS wouldn't do something deceptive like that !!!....would they?

    ReplyDelete
  42. "GS going long while bashing Gold in MSM, follow the money. TBTF getting longer Gold I wonder why?"

    rlm, what is your source they are going long?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm with you on that one Prophet...always check the source!

      Delete
  43. 3 month power play in Cable, I think is pretty long in the tooth; will start to let them have some @1.62 or so and go from there; however, be warned that I have been wrong the Yen for a couple months now; that is all, swb

    ReplyDelete
  44. We always say, "if you buy Smith's tips, you must sell Smith's tips", which for you cherries, that if you listen to somebody, you can not break his balls because you could not successfully cherry pick his calls, but you must do as he says because you are a non-thinker, as it were. As for Armstrong, well, he has an opinion on everything and anything, and, not only does he forecast direction, but he also gives you time! What a joke, but he knows that his sheep will remember a few of his correct calls and conveniently forget the 80% blown saves. These are perilous, broken, rigged mkts and if you can not handle them, quit belly-aching and go out on the patio and play jacks with your granddaughters; that is all, swb

    ReplyDelete
  45. What has happened to King World News? Cannot seem to get to the site for the last few days?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. no problem here; a little grief at zero and rnn though; swb

      Delete
  46. Gold and especially the shares are falling as Obama sounds more open to negotiation and seems less bellicose. the shares look terrible.

    The globalists do not need the economy to collapse. they already collpased it five years ago, and got the needed regulations and legislation passed in its wake to now control all financial markets.

    The collapse was very real, but contrived. I do not think the globalists want or need another collapse. they already got what they wanted - complete control. The economy can continue status quo until the end of the decade when the planned thermonuclear war that takes out DC takes place, and gives the globalists the needed force majeure to cancel the sovereign debt and establish the world financial dictatorship. That is a long time from now. Between now and then, gold will bleed as people become more sanguine to the rigged markets and economy.

    Why is this important? Because if there is not going to be a collapse, then owning gold is a very expensive insurance policy.

    Now, if you want to shield assets, then gold is the best vehicle. One must make up his mind and plan accordingly. Owning gold for catastrophe is like buying a very expensive put option, and as time goes on and people realize that there will be no collapse, gold will continue to bleed.

    Just because one thinks that there will be a collapse tomorrow, doesn't mean that one should only listen to those who continue to talk about catastrophe. One should keep an open mind and understand that perhaps those espousing collapse may just be misguided. Eventually, they will be correct, but that could be 7-10 years in the future.

    Scalps are the way to go until gold plummets again. just covered my 1328 short. Keeping my physical hedged....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Eph,
      If there is a thermonuclear war that takes out DC, do you think it will be limited and the globalists will still be there to rule the world?
      Well they might, if they had time to reach their bunker...but there wouldn't be many people left to control, I'm afraid...

      Delete
    2. This is important to understand. this is probably about a 8-10 years away. The globalists have built up China and Russia to eventually attack the west. They are making the US look badly in the international arena. They are making Putin look like a peacemaker. This is to shift the world opinion away from the US.

      Anyway, I doubt there will be any collapse any time soon. Much of the collapse stuff we see off the web is disinfo. Imagine running around talking about collapse. Any one running around talking about collapse is doing us a disservice. The intelligence organizations want to discredit us, and by having us talking about collapse continually, we burn ourselves out, make us poorer, and turn off friends and family.

      We need to hunker down and admit that we may have the economy meander for the next several years - up to the end of the decade.

      That's really not a long time, but for investing, that is a lifetime. I went bullish on gold in the Summer of 2005. I could not stop talking about gold. Larry Summers also said in 2005 when asked about gold that he was a "huge gold bull."

      Dan probably remembers that.

      But this worm has turned, and I find it amazing how most people cannot recognize the change in dynamic. I still have a lot riding on gold, but am not foolish enough to leave it unhedged.

      As for me, I moved from NYC, where I sold most of my real estate, to Albuquerque, where I have started all over again. Of course, I trade for a living, so I could live anywhere, but chose this area, for population, open areas, climate, etc.

      War will come and I am positioning myself as a Realtor here and getting prepared. As someone who is approaching 50, lived in Manhattan for 15 years, grew up on LI, etc, I have seen it all.

      Now, a decade is not a long time, but for investing it's more than enough time to go broke. Most people here going long on gold miners have been losing a lot of money, and will probably continue to do so, as long as they are long.

      The globalists have planned this for decades, and even longer. The montary system is designed to give up the ghost when war comes. It has more life in it than most here think.

      Delete
  47. ok so, tmrw theres an FOMC which will probably say printing will not stop , especially if government deadlock bla bla bla...so gold should rise yeah? miners are at all new record low, NUGT is at 42 bucks!!!! is anyone else thinking about just buying that NUGT monster and holding onto it like a propper trooper? or have i got my dates/schedule/tactic completely wrong?

    p.s. these people dissing gold and KWN and all that, its more boring than rude at this point....enough already; broken records, go out for a run or plant a garden, whatever, instead of repeating yourselves hourly...

    ReplyDelete
  48. Tactics is wrong precious wood. NUGT is designed to go to zero. You cant hold it for the long run not even the intermediate run.

    Looking at the sentiment the contrarian argument is tempting enough. I took positions on friday. Maybe ill regret it as early as tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. yeah ive heard alot of people say that its more of a daily trade, or something you hold maximum for a few days...i never quite fully understood the explanation for it but i know its well volatile...gold trading slightly lower before market open at the moment too, so could even enter around 40 if the sky is with us haha...but i dont see this going to zero, cos its merely a reflection of GDX,and GDX cant go to zero cos its an index of miners, and only 3 x 0 is 0...obviously it could go alot lower but we are at a lower point in GDX then when gold was at 1179...plus the feds have their excuse to keep printing cos government impasse....i understaned your point, but i dont really get why people think NUGT will go to 0...

      Delete
    2. imagine the following scenario: GDX goes to $1 and DUST (which tracks triple the inverse of GDX) hypothetically goes to $2000/share. if GDX rallies to $1.34 the very next day, DUST..in theory, should be trading at $0.

      The reverse is also true.

      Delete
  49. Hi Precious

    NUGT is tempting. The miners are trading at cost of production or lower. I have read where the best cure for low prices is...low prices. Buying NUGT right now would take balls made of titanium ! But, this is how fortunes are made, buy low and sell high...sounds easy doesn't it ?
    I had bought GLL and got stopped out this morning just by a whisker.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. yeah i heard some companies are better off shutting down (aside Dans hedging argument) when gold is in the 1200's...GLL is a nice buy when gold drops, as is DUST, but i just feel like buying DUST takes greater balls than NUGT at this rate...when new lows are made (GDX, NUGT, etc) i guess it can go much lower before it finds a base and comes back up but i think today is a little special with FOMC, and we have debt ceiling that will obviously be raised later, along with gold prices....i swear i heard some people make the case for gold dropping if debt ceiling is raised and i cannot understand that...but anyway i know what you mean that buying here takes balls, maybe if i see a little curl coming and gold shoots up i can just buy market rate cos if NUGT does rally, itll be atleast 5 to 10 percent....i would love to hear Dan talk about NUGT and DUST or does he just stay well clear of these monsters!

      Delete
  50. "Potential is for a fresh sell-off to materialise soon," counters gold price analysis from fellow market-making bank UBS.

    "The bearish outlook remains intact...We expect the yellow metal to test the crucial support at $1180.50, the June 28 low, over the coming days."

    http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold-price-100820138

    ReplyDelete
  51. Short term it looks weak.
    They repelled gold once more under 1320 $.
    The downwards resistance yesterday at 1335 must be around 1330 today, so just above the most recent highs.
    It's not hard to build a short position from here with a protection above 1335.
    I am not long gold on the speculative side, because there is no strength, and no trend on the short term. Support at 1285-1300 is holding, but we are just going nowhere...low volatility, converging bollinger bands on daily unit means once more patience, from my point of view (I am not a day trader)

    ReplyDelete
  52. Eph,
    Comex Gold price manipulation requires some physical.
    In april, they already ran law of sock ammo (see registered Comex stock, see ETF GLD), so they would have to find a new source of ammo.
    You mentioned that this source might be an additional big sell from a Western CB.
    Nevertheless, what are the chances that this occurs?
    I rather see many countries (or population movements) wanting their gold back now, first of them in Germany, but also Switzerland, Netherlands...
    Italy CB representative also said there was no way they'd sell their gold.

    But come to think of it, and the attitude of our current French President regarding Syria, maybe that buffoon will do like Sarkozy ten years ago and obey his masters for a nice bone when he retires, selling a few hundred more tons...
    Except that, where can they find the gold they will need to manipulate the market down?
    I don't think that India or China will reduce their purchases if prices plummet further. I don't think they are fooled by the paper price manipulation vs dollar.
    We'll see...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Gold price manipulation does require physical, absolutely.

      With respect to supply/demand functions, demand for consumables escalates as prices drop, but with assets, demand DECREASES as prices fall. Thus, the globalists know human psychology, and understand that people will be turned off by gold and silver as prices fall. More supply will come online. govts may even wish to unload as losses mount. The govts are contrarian. They buy as prices rise and sell as prices fall. Plus, there may be countries that may have to sell to pay bills. They may be surreptitiously selling as we speak.

      I also understand the globalists, and see them implimenting more restrictions on gold (i.e. India, Vietnam, etc.) This will spread to other countries. As long as they never directly oppose gold ownership people will not get spooked.

      The globalists are leading the supply demand dynamic to bring the price down. By dropping the price, they change the psychology on an inert asset, that does not produce income.

      My 1299.6 stops just went off. I just covered them at 1296. Still have 3 short.

      Delete
    2. well, I don't know if they'll manage to reverse the psychology, especially in Asia, but there is a logic in what you're saying, and you think "out of the box" which is interesting, thanks for the comments...

      Delete
  53. This is important to understand. this is probably about a 8-10 years away. The globalists have built up China and Russia to eventually attack the west. They are making the US look badly in the international arena. They are making Putin look like a peacemaker. This is to shift the world opinion away from the US.

    Anyway, I doubt there will be any collapse any time soon. Much of the collapse stuff we see off the web is disinfo. Imagine running around talking about collapse. Any one running around talking about collapse is doing us a disservice. The intelligence organizations want to discredit us, and by having us talking about collapse continually, we burn ourselves out, make us poorer, and turn off friends and family.

    We need to hunker down and admit that we may have the economy meander for the next several years - up to the end of the decade.

    That's really not a long time, but for investing, that is a lifetime. I went bullish on gold in the Summer of 2005. I could not stop talking about gold. Larry Summers also said in 2005 when asked about gold that he was a "huge gold bull."

    Dan probably remembers that.

    But this worm has turned, and I find it amazing how most people cannot recognize the change in dynamic. I still have a lot riding on gold, but am not foolish enough to leave it unhedged.

    As for me, I moved from NYC, where I sold most of my real estate, to Albuquerque, where I have started all over again. Of course, I trade for a living, so I could live anywhere, but chose this area, for population, open areas, climate, etc.

    War will come and I am positioning myself as a Realtor here and getting prepared. As someone who is approaching 50, lived in Manhattan for 15 years, grew up on LI, etc, I have seen it all.

    Now, a decade is not a long time, but for investing it's more than enough time to go broke. Most people here going long on gold miners have been losing a lot of money, and will probably continue to do so, as long as they are long.

    The globalists have planned this for decades, and even longer. The montary system is designed to give up the ghost when war comes. It has more life in it than most here think.

    ReplyDelete
  54. Looks like gold Armageddon could be upon us. Hang on tight.

    ReplyDelete
  55. http://www.marketspress.com/federal-reserve-revamp-hundred-dollar-bill-3150/davehopper.html

    Interesting .....

    ReplyDelete
  56. How many trades will take place between 1276 to 1330? Its a traders delight. They are laughing at the buy and hold guys. Its that kind of year. There should be an announcement at the beginning of each year as to what kind of year it is going to be. Buy and hold. Trade. That would help. This year the difference between the 2 strategies is absolutely tremendous. And very painful for the buy and hold strategy.

    ReplyDelete
  57. What if we see one of those $200 take downs? So much for trying to trade the range.

    ReplyDelete
  58. that's why it's important to have two sets of trades. one must have an intermediate hedge/trade, depending on the trend, and trade short term scalp trades, with holding times no more than a couple hours.

    ReplyDelete
  59. And now, the totally bullish case.
    http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68&PHPSESSID=0b7c8c79a4f8505e4a27ffe00cdd5a61
    With a strong commitment at the end : just go fishing.
    See why T.A is sometimes a matter of interpretation?
    I can find the opposite T.A bear case right now as well.
    How does one sort this out?
    Detect entry point, with a good stop loss nearby, allowing a good risk / reward ratio and a small loss if one is wrong. After that, let the market decide...

    ReplyDelete
  60. I am still short using GLL.
    Unsure about the miners...they seem to be holding. After awhile you run out of sellers.
    Hopefully nothing is left except the shorts shorting each other (if thats possible), I hope they choke on it someday.

    ReplyDelete
  61. In 2011 the miners stopped going up while gold was topping. Now the reverse seems to be true.

    Not only are the miners universally loathed. It seems everyone that loved them in 2011 is now shorting them.

    We have met the enemy and he is us.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. True Jasper..the most bearish are those who were former gold cheerleaders....kinda like ex-smokers.

      Delete
  62. HUI and XAU gold miner indices moving positive nicely from oversold.
    All things take time, but if HF, algos and computer driven trading backlash speed things up, hold onto a seat, a good one that won't throw you off or add to any whiplash.
    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article42620.html
    Gold Stock Investors Keep the Best and Dump the Rest
    Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2013
    Oct 09, 2013 - 09:14 PM GMT
    By: The_Gold_Report

    ReplyDelete
  63. HdH- China IS buying on dips, but domestic retail demand is soaring, The government relaxed restrictions and duties to incentivize retailers and encourages it's citizens to buy gold for protection and savings. This began in earnest when gold was between $1100 and $1200 making $1200 an important level China wants defended. China's government is loathe to disenfranchise and incur the wrath of her newly invested citizens.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. don't you realize those are monkeys flying out of his keyster and he has a direct line to Shanghai and Hong Kong? swb

      Delete
  64. what about your sources , you are full os mays , woulds , shoulds , but no hard facts other than what you get on the internet , research , etc , a blog is to hear ones opinion , every once so often , not to conquer it prophet , you bombard this place with the same old negative argument over and over again . This is not the NSA , he is just putting down some thoughts , i hope no one acts on it in the same way no one acts on your comments . Give us a break dude , have a kit kat , relax , other ways if gold rallies you r going to have a hart attack !

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ahahahaha! Sorry stella I've just had enough of all the Chinese gold buying this and that, and oh gold backed currencies coming yada yada. I've heard one analyst say yes Chinese buy gold, but they also sell, then buy, then sell again - strategic like, why because they are smart. And that makes sense to me and reflects more accurately what price of gold is doing.
      My sources?? Well I did at least provide a link above.

      Delete
  65. Why is everyone on here so BEARISH when we know now that SILVER is going to $110. Where silver goes gold follows. Keep stackin'!

    The News UNIT

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Weather UNIT,

      Yup! think they are short-to-medium term BEARISH. Long term BULLISH. Why? Chart pattern is not encouraging, for both gold and silver at the moment. Would like to see silver above 23.50, and preferably above 25.00 to get some excitement back.

      Delete
  66. nobody talks about a couple of years of a chop, do they? we could stay range-bound from last june lows until the next lows or the recent highs and then what? answer is, traders got carved up, little by little and then .......swb

    ReplyDelete

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