"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput

Trader Dan's free work will soon be available at www.traderdan.biz

Sunday, November 9, 2014

Paul Craig Roberts and the Spread of Disinformation

Those who have been coming to this site for any length of time know that I make a point of not reading, and especially not referring my readers, to those permanently pro-gold websites which are universally permanently bullish. Almost daily at these sites, there is the propagation of so much error and misinformation when it comes to the futures market that one could spend a lifetime debunking them and still just manage to put a small dent in the sheer quantity of falsehoods emanating outwards. In even referencing them I run the risk of sending more traffic to them and helping to keep them in business; something which I am anxious not to do.

However, one recent article posted on perhaps the most egregious of these sensationalistic pro-gold websites, was so over the top and contained so much disinformation, that I feel compelled to address it directly.

I am referring to the "Shocking Interview" over at King World News ( have you noticed that nearly each and every interview there is always prefaced by an adjective in the superlative? ) where a Paul Craig Roberts, essentially accuses the "agents" ( of the Fed I suppose), also referred to as the banks, as being responsible for "illegal" activity.

Here is his claim:
Apparently these (agent) banks can print gold futures contracts in unlimited amounts, just as the Federal Reserve can print U.S. dollars in unlimited amounts.  And then in the space of a minute, two, three, or four minutes, dump the equivalent of 20, 30, 40 (or more) tons of gold as represented by these paper claims to gold into the futures markets during periods of essentially no trading.  The favorite time is around 3 o’clock in the morning EST.  It’s almost always when the Asian physical markets are closed.
That’s exactly what’s going on.  It’s illegal.  It’s not merely unethical -- it’s strictly illegal.  But it’s being done by the authorities, or with their permission."

Evidently Mr. Roberts is upset because the price of gold ( and silver) has been going down and in his mind, it should not be doing that. Therefore he must find a bogeyman to blame. Instead of doing what any self-respecting trader or investor would do when confronted with market action not to their expectation, he digs in deeper and concocts a scenario that reinforces his erroneous thesis and finds solace in that.

The article contains certain presuppositions that are obviously in error.
Let's start with the first one:

"Normally when a central bank creates 4 trillion new dollars, the currency collapses... It's not worth anything ( by this I assume he means the US Dollar) in terms of rubles, euros, yen or (even) pesos.

That is a rather odd statement given the sheer size of the Forex Markets and the price action of the US Dollar. Also, I find it odd that Mr. Roberts chooses to list the Russian Ruble among the currencies that that the "dollar is not worth anything in terms of".

Have any of those who are swallowing this absurd claim happened to look at a recent chart of the Russian Ruble?

Apparently his claim comes as news to the Russian monetary authorities who have been burning through their reserves ever since the sanctions imposed on it from the West have been decimating its currency. They are reported as selling large amounts of their reserves ( including dollar denominated assets) in order to stem the bleeding in their own currency.

It is evident that the Forex markets have a different view of the value of the Dollar against the Russian Ruble than does our esteemed famous currency trader, Mr. Roberts. One can only be kind and hope that he was not actually acting on this bizarre claim that the Ruble has far more value than the US Dollar and was holding a LONG position in the currency. OUCH!

Consider yet further his claim that the Dollar is not worth anything in terms of the Yen.

Here is the Yen chart. This is the Yen versus the Dollar - guess which one is winning and which one is losing.

Note to Mr. Roberts - the entirety of the massive foreign exchange markets happen to strongly disagree with you that the Dollar "is not worth anything in terms of the Yen".

We could do the same thing with the chart of the Euro but I do not want to impose any further on the patience of the reader.

It has never occurred to Mr. Roberts that the Dollar does have value in the eyes of the world's foreign exchange markets and in the world of global investors. The reason for that is simple, even if it seems lost on the hapless Roberts - in spite of its many problems, the US remains the best place for global investors looking for places in which to park capital.

Now as those of us who live in the markets well know, this could change as circumstances and events change as such is the nature of markets, but at the current time, the quaint notion that the Dollar "is not worth anything" is rather amusing, and that is being kind.

Also, Mr. Roberts has the same myopic view of the gold and silver markets as nearly all of those who are permanently bullish the precious metals do - he looks at those markets in isolation and fails to take in the larger picture.

I have demonstrated repeatedly here, to the point of fatigue, that the main problem facing the world's Central Banks is one of DEFLATION, or in their term, Disinflation. Contrary to Mr. Robert's view, it is NOT INFLATION nor is it inflation fears that keep the Central Banks of the West up at night. They would DEARLY LOVE to have this problem. After all, within the span of the last three weeks we have had THREE MAJOR Central Banks all come out with one voice stating that their goal is to generate an inflation rate of 2% annually. I am referring of course to our own Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan, which just announced another huge stimulus effort for the entire reason of beating back the deflationary forces which have gripped Japan for so long.

For goodness sake, that someone who once worked at the Treasury department could get something this obvious so dreadfully wrong is rather disconcerting. After all, if this is an example of the caliber of the thinking that is at our current Treasury department we are in more serious trouble than I even imagined. If those running that department cannot even identify the problem, how in the world can they ever be expected to administer the right medicine. Frightening isn't it?

Suffice it to say, the global growth is slowing, in spite of the efforts of Central Banks to reverse it. Their stimulus via QE/low interest rates/treatment of bank reserves, etc. has managed to halt the bleeding but has not in and of itself been able to generate solid, sustained economic growth. The reason for that is that monetary stimulus can in and of itself only do so much; it must be combined with sound fiscal policy and with reforms in the regulatory environment. But that is another topic for another day.

Coming back to the myopic view of Mr. Roberts - he seems genuinely bewildered by the fact that in his mind, demand for physical gold is strong in Asia and yet the metals keep going lower.  He therefore jumps to the unproveable conclusion, that is must be "illegal action" that is the cause.

As stated previously, this is what happens when one gets fixated on a single market and fails to survey the entire scene. NO MARKET TRADES IN ISOLATION. If it did, it would be an easy matter for we traders to retire quite early in life. Instead we are forced to deal with winds that blow from many directions at times, each of which can impact the sector we are either attempting to trade or to invest in.

Take a look at the chart of the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index. This is an index comprised of a basket of commodities, each of which are given a particular weighting. Which direction has it been moving, higher or lower?

The answer is evident - lower; and not just lower, but sharply lower. As a matter of FACT, the index just recently hit a 50 month low. If the market is worried about inflation from QE as Mr. Robert is, it certainly is not demonstrating that now is it?

Global growth is slowing and as it slows, demand for all commodities is slowing with it, especially those used in industrial production.

Consider a chart of crude oil, that all important key indicator of economic growth.

In spite of the fact, that oil too has been succumbing to the general deflationary impulse afflicting the global economy, Mr. Robert assures us that the only reason for lower gold and silver prices must be "illegal activity" on the paper markets.

Following is a chart of the TIPS spread that I have created which the frequent readers of this site have become quite familiar with. This is essentially the market's voice as to how it views the spectre of inflation or lack thereof. When the spread is rising, it shows the market is expecting inflation pressures to build. When it is falling, it shows the opposite, namely, that the market is not worried about inflation.

What has this spread been showing? The answer is falling inflationary fears. The spread just recently put in a multi-year low. Do you also notice the price of gold charted alongside the spread? What has it been doing? Pretty much moving right in sync with the spread, rising when it rises and falling when it falls. The relationship is not a perfect 100% one but it is rather startling how closely the price of gold tracks this all important spread from the bond markets.

Yet, in spite of this, Mr. Robert asserts, with much bravado I might add, that gold prices "are rigged" and that "the authorities are behind it".

I must say, that these authorities are rather remarkable for they have been quite busy apparently! Not only have they been dumping large amounts "into the futures markets during periods of essentially no trading" but they have singlehandedly managed to simultaneously knock down crude oil, unleaded gasoline, corn, wheat, soybeans, heating oil, copper, platinum, etc. at the same time. They have also managed to take the TIPS spread and change its entire direction, when it should be going up - based on Mr. Robert's view - instead of what it is currently doing and going down. They have also managed to push the Russian ruble lower, the yen lower, the Euro lower and nearly every other currency that exists, all against the Dollar, which they have somehow mysteriously managed to levitate in spite of the fact that in Mr. Robert's view, "it has no value".

Quite a feat is it not?

I have already dealt with the reckless claim that it is "the agents of the Fed" or "the banks" as Mr. Roberts claim which have been selling in large quantities during the early morning hours in my frequents posts over the course of the last few years here. Time constraints are precluding me from dealing with it as fully as I would like to but I would suggest that the interested reader simply go back through those many posts and examine the data for themselves.

Let me just make a quick comment along that line and note something out of the Commitment of Traders reports to refute this false claim that it is "the banks" that are the ones doing the selling during the early morning hours to "illegally" control the paper price of gold.

Here is a chart of the NET POSITION of the Commercial Category as well as the Swap Dealers. Look closely at the numbers on the left hand side of the chart and also note the location of the "Zero Line".

As you can see, those numbers are NEGATIVE. What this means, when one sees a RISING LINE for both categories of traders, is that these groups are BUYING, NOT selling, as Mr. Roberts falsely asserts, and I might add here, without the least shred of evidence to back up and support his rash claim. Perhaps he believes that if he simply says it often enough, it will become true by something akin to a reverse statue of limitations.

So then who is doing the selling? Again, what does the data tell us?

This is a chart of the HEDGE FUND NET position in the gold futures market. It has been overlaid with the price of gold showing the linkage. A falling line indicates a reduction in the number of long positions or the addition of new short positions or a combination of both, which is the actual reality. Can you see the exact and perfect correspondence between the selling of this dominant force in our markets and the price of gold? As these speculators exit the gold market in search of other opportunities or as they actively SELL it outright, the price of the metal moves lower. It is that simple.

One last thing and I am done. Mr. Roberts talks a lot about "demand exceeding supply" and as proof of that he refers to the US Mint hitting their quota of coins and the Canadian Royal Mind on "the verge of having to do that". That is all well and good and is certainly noteworthy but what about large speculative Western-based investment demand? Is coin demand the only measure of gold and/or silver demand?

What about the gold ETF and what has happened to it? Did the "agents of the Fed" go in and somehow manage to dupe all those who bought into GLD to somehow throw away their gold? Did these same "agents of the Fed" singlehandedly manage to sell the shares of nearly every single gold mining interest out there? After all, Mr. Roberts refers to the Comex as the scene of "illegal activity" but it is a demonstrably proven fact that the gold mining shares LEAD the price of bullion, whether it is up or down.

Perhaps the truth is much more simple and much less dramatic than "illegal activity on the part of the agents of the Fed". Perhaps it is the fact that with inflation fears sinking, with the Velocity of Money continuing to fall, with global economic growth floundering, with commodity prices worldwide in a general decline, with Central Banks worried about DEFLATION and with stocks being the only game in town in a near zero interest rate environment, that gold and silver have fallen out of favor with large speculative interests who get paid by generating return on capital invested.

If those interests survey the macro economic scene and believe that it is an environment not conducive to rising precious metal prices, and as a result have taken their capital out of gold and silver, and out of commodities in general, and have also decided that the best possible way to profit from them is by actively SHORTING the metals, then perhaps, that is a much easier and more reasonable explanation for the price of the metals to have fallen as they have instead of having to come up with unverifiable claims about "illegal activity".

In closing, I would only say that Mr. Roberts is entitled to believe whatever he wants and to say whatever he wants. He is not, however, entitled to no challenges to his claims.

Gold will have its day once again, but when it does, it will not be in spite of "illegal selling" or some strange suspension of the laws of supply and demand that Mr. Robert claims is occurring but rather because the stars will once again be aligned in favor of the precious metal . At that time the fundamental factors will both dictate higher prices and attract the capital flows from large investors that is necessary for a bull market.


  1. Roberts' assertion is that " banks can print gold futures contracts in unlimited amounts" and that they dump these into the markets at ungodly hours at the behest of the authorities, in order to manipulate the price of precious metals.

    1. Futures contracts are matched on the exchange, and there are no "orphans" : is it therefore not equally true that the purchasers if these contracts also "print contracts?" My understanding - please correct me if I am wrong - is that over the past 18 months it is in fact the Bullion Banks which have been taking the BUY side in these transactions, rather than initiating the Selling (which during the smackdown which took place in the middle of last week was largely from Hedge Funds and Algos). On the basis of the COT Report, therefore, Roberts is clearly wrong in his assertion that the price collapse was orchestrated by the Banks

    2. Roberts asserts that the Banks - or, at least, the agencies who he alleges are manipulating the markets - " can print gold futures contracts in unlimited amounts". So why didn't they? Why did they stop, and why isnt't the price of Gold currently in the low single-digits as a consequence?

    Ignoring for one moment the notion that, according to Roberts, the Banks making the Bid price also have the capacity to "print gold futures contracts in unlimited amounts " and thereby drive the price up to the Moon, the simple fact is that there clearly was a limit, and as Dan has pointed out, the Sellers apparently "Sold Out".

    Not only is Roberts therefore wrong about WHO was behind the selling, he was clearly also wrong about HOW they went about it and almost certainly wrong about WHY

    3. The major downswing last week was initiated at 2pm Hong Kong/Singapore/Beijing time: Roberts asserts that this was " when the Asian physical markets are closed." This too is untrue, because at that time both the Singapore Exchanges, the Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange and (most importantly) the Shanghai Gold Exchange are very much open for business

    But this is perhaps irrelevant, because my understanding is that - with Gold also quoted and traded as a currency (XAU) the initial large Sell order was in fact executed in the FX market. 2pm Asia corresponds with the morning session in Europe and - more notably - mid morning in Ukraine and Moscow. Who knows what was behind the transaction, but I am fairly certain it wasn't a Bullion Bank selling an unlimited amount of Futures on the instruction of TPTB at a time when the Asian markets are closed. Roberts is WRONG

    It is neither necessary or helpful to impute motive to Roberts' misguided assertions; however, I hope that the above analysis is sufficiently lucid and objective to at least raise questions about the merits of his article.

    1. According to the following chart, the Evil Feds must let commodity prices rise roughly every 35 years, then then get annoyed and manipulate them down roughly every 25 to 35 years. This evil behavior clearly has been going on for freaking 200 years! WOW, Holy crap, the US government has been so evil for so long. It must be America's Founding Fathers who are to be blamed for all of this.


  2. I apologise for re-posting that Comment Dan, but it is directly related to your own analysis, but makes slightly different points

    I also posted a near-identical comment on another website, which elicited an abusive 27-line tirade including the statement

    " None of what you have stated as fact, to discredit Dr. Roberts, is what actually happened, no matter how strongly you assert it. "

    These people will continue to believe what they want to believe, facts be damned

    1. And here was my response from this a.m. to Ophelia regarding PCR and the FX trading.
      "Thanks OB...nice write up and valid points.
      I think the overwhelming amount of those large transactions and price movements are indeed FX oriented XAU (or XAG) transactions.
      Given that the size of the FX market is immense....$5+ TRILLION DAILY....it's little wonder that at times we see large swings downwards as well as upwards.

      The funny thing about all the manipulation accusations is that they're always framed like some evil banker boogieman was at work while others were safely asleep only to wake up to some startling price movements.

      The US-centric view of his is kind of based on our timezone without recognizing that the other side of the planet is fully awake and conducting business all "night" long.

      There was no sneak attack in the middle of the night but instead just enormous FX trading volumes in markets where a billion plus people live and work everyDAY while others sleep."

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    3. Great stuff Dan, thanks.
      It's entirely possible some 'bugs could read that bit of logic you wrote above but come away with an entirely different perspective because they're wed to a certain outlook while also divorced from accepting some uncomfortable truths about their perma-bull leaders.

      For all the talk there is about evil banker cabals and cartels and the grip or effect they have on citizens there is also a Cartel of sorts among the bigger talking heads in the PM blogosphere.
      Everyone here knows the list of names that Mark rolls out periodically knows to whom I'm referring to.

      When you hear someone online continually and blindly regurgitate and pump the cartel line of perma-bullish outlooks it makes those cheerleaders the very same cartel apologist or agent of misleading disinformation they warn their herds about.

      People might want to start considering some uncomfortable things about the disingenuous marketing they've been subject to.
      One thing all the pumpers have in common is that they're unapologetic if not in denial that another set of logical and objective outlooks might actually be right.

      Cartel unapologists.

  3. all right sunday pre-opening research time is here, and Dan does not disappoint!!

    first glance at friday's action, and the long bond futs (US or ZB) chart looks similar to gold, with the new low early then ramp outa there.... that spells risk off, and the news was russia and ukraine at the time, coupled with a miss on non-farm payroll in the usa.

    the ruble was also mentioned for gold futures buying, as ruble holders needed a hedge.

    SPX has only gone up the week after non-farm friday twice this year, and those two times were when SPX was correcting before, not like last week an all time high.

  4. Dan - Commericals were net buyers of more than 43,000 gold contracts in the latest COT week...


    don't hold your breath waiting for fraudsters like Roberts and Turd Ferguson to ask that question - even though Turd asked the opposite question when Commercials were on the other side...


    1. Funny how that works isn't it?
      And few ever question the selective nature of the observations or lack of them at times.

    2. Who makes up the commercials. do they lose a lot?

  5. Unions at Peru's largest copper mine, Antamina, will begin a walkout on Monday. Negotiations between companies and union leaders broke down. that mine produces 7% of the world copper per year.

    dr copper needs to regain 3.10 to give a mark of C+ to the world economy.

    it's interesting with copper and IBM historically forecasting the dow INDU, that both IBM and copper has been so poor for the last 1.4 yrs or so.

    with GSCI being so poor as Dan's chart highlights, index funds are going to get outflows. it may be early to say, but Dan's cattle are due to get selling in the early january rebalancing of those index funds as well.

  6. Last week in livestock, the December cattle contract gained 75 cents. Nearby feeders advanced by nearly $4. And the December lean hog contract improved by 75 cents.

    A new deal between Australia and China is moving into place. Australia could export up to 1 million head of live cattle to China annually. This agreement is in competition with the U.S. trade team who is in China trying to negotiate access for U.S. beef to that market.

    LH lean hogs is a seasonal buy, gobble gobble!

    in Ags the usda is monday, so to get to be an ole timer trader one gets flat ahead of report yankage.

    weather for ags reopen tonite leans bearish, as harvest dry in usa and brazil bean areas wet is what happened.


  7. Don't worry about sending people to the irrationally pro Gold websites like KWN. I suspect a lot of people are looking for more critical and rational answers to why the PM are behaving as they are--- and it is clear that the 'Gold bug' websites are NOT a trustworthy source for news on PM!!!

    That's how I have come to see it. The facts demand one to take this view, not the rhetoric. It is a bit strange that 3+ years on in a bear market the Gold bugs have not asked this question.

  8. david

    what I find incongruous is why, if TPTB are indeed intent on suppressing the price of Gold, and have access to "limitless" Futures contracts to do so

    a. why did they evet let Gold rise to $1900?

    b. why has the smackdown taken so long, achieved so little (3 attempts before it broke below 1180), and waited until after QE had tapered out and inflation failed to show,

    Remember, TPTB can "print futures contracts without limit" - what is holding them back? Surely, not a few retail coin buffs?

    1. I believe it was a software glitch with the gold contract printer that took quite some time to fix. What I heard anyway.

    2. a. make maximum profits on the way up, make maximum profits on the way down.
      b. a lot was achieved, QE is here to stay.

    3. Matthew, good evening

      is it really the case that "TPTB" are motivated by Profit? Craig Roberts imputes other motives, though if you agree with Dan's interpretation of the COT Report. that is not Banks but Hedge Fubds who are driving the market, then you might well be right

      However, as Dan has also pointed out, Hedge Funds do not have "limitless" capacity, and Craig Roberts asserts that the manipulators do

      However, that still leaves my final question unresolved: why stop at $1100, and why did it take 4 attempts to get there?

      I sense we may perhaps be in broad agreement with each other, but not with Craig Roberts

    4. Ophelia, I don't think the crime syndicate has unlimited power, it's hard to herd around 6 billion people who all want to do their own thing. plus God has a way of dealing with things. If gold goes down slowly it's hard to think the trend wont continue, this loosens up 20 year old gold from the closets. The crime syndicate can't get it if it never comes out of the closet. They may not be stopped at $1100, it depends on how hard people want to grip it? They probably have a feel where a physical revolt in price would rebel against the paper price. A $100 price difference between paper and physical would not be good advertisement. The 4 trillion dollars are not all unencumbered credit. Some is on the sidelines, some in overseas markets replacing failed currencies, some attached to toxic mortgages, some inflating assets.

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    1. Are you drunk or on medication...or need to be?

    2. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    3. I find it hilarious that this paper brainless puppet guy keeps showing up and posting nonsense while knowing it will be removed. Something psychologically wrong there.

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  11. Gold could be up from now on. USD going into a weak seasonals. Of course it can not go up too far, still in a bear market

  12. Lets face it many of the current markets are manipulated as we have seen with the massive fines being levied recently. However, can I suggest you just ignore these ridiculous websites and just concentrate on the facts.

    We are due a correction soon and gold may well shine again at that point, but we will see.

    Miners were oversold last week hence NUGT rising by over 35% at the end of the week, but you have to be pretty brave to go for these stocks at the moment.

    I do think we have some serious issues to face with all the debt plus potential deflation, which is no doubt ruining the plans of the fed etc, and we are all going to have to pay for that one day soon!

    1. are you related to the famous David P "out of Europe"?

      if so, can you tell me how to get "savvy" please?

    2. Balls you just love to try and belittle other posters and I am afraid that is a sign of someone who really has no clue about what is happening in the markets and possibly does not actually invest any real money. 14 year old boy by any chance :-) Back to school in the morning!

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    4. Good evening David

      that was a light-hearted remark, though I sense that you perhaps already know that. I am not in total agreement with your assessment of my knowledge of traded markets, but I'm happy to allow others to form their own opinions on that; I am, however, flattered as a "woman of a certain age" to be mistaken for someone still in the first flushes of youth; as it turns out, it's not school I am going to tomorrow, but the Treasury Department of a major European Bank

      I am sorry if I offended you, and can assure you it won't happen again, as I have neither time nor inclination to respond to any more of your comments if they are predicated on a presumption of market manipulation: it appears you have much to learn from this website, but perhaps far less to contribute

    5. Good luck making money on your hyper-inflation prediction

  13. Well lets say the banks aren't manipulating gold down but china is. Lose a lot of paper dollars on the Comex. Pick up a lot more in physical money. Makes good business sense. And when one is finished on the physical take, take the other side of the paper.

    1. how is China manipulating gold down?

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  14. Dan, can you answer Mr. Roberts question? WHY is there a massive short sell in the middle of the night? isn't it like shooting oneself in the foot.
    Dan, do you have any first hand knowledge, Are the shorts naked?, Are the shorts covered? I listened to your interviews on KWN a lot a couple years ago and miss them. Why did you leave?

    1. Matthew Lusk;

      Are you a relatively new reader here at the site? The reason I ask if because I have dealt with this topic more times than I can even remember at this point.
      Please use the search feature and find some of those articles I wrote addressing this claim under the name of "Flash Crash".

      I will say it very quickly however - the nature of buying and selling in the futures markets has changed dramatically since I first began trading many, many years ago. We used to scale in and scale out of trades. That is no longer the case. Computers are programmed now to sell a certain percentage of orders or buy a certain percentage of orders on each price signal that they get. They do not think nor do these machines know the least bit of what "scale down buying" or "scale up selling" means.

      EVERY SINGLE COMMODITY FUTURES MARKET experiences these large orders, which come in and swamp either all of the bids at times or all of the offers at times. It is NOT UNIQUE TO GOLD, and those who claim that it is, such as Mr. Roberts and those who continually regale us with breathless claims that it is evidence of bullion bank suppression of the gold price are betraying an IGNORANCE of the future markets that is breathtaking.

      I should note here that one of the reasons we LIVESTOCK traders have been asking the CME officials to shut down the evening trade in that market for years was because of exactly that reason - namely, large orders for that time of the early morning hours, that moved prices around for no apparent reason. Guess what, the CME officials finally shut down the evening trade. Hallelujah!

      Unfortunately gold trade is very active in Asia and in Europe while we AMericans happen to indulge in that despicable habit known as sleep.

      Lastly, Mr. Roberts points to activity in the Comex during the early morning hours as evidence that the agents of the FEd are actively working to suppress the price of gold for official sector reasons to discredit it.

      I have already disproved that spurious claim by demonstrating that it is HEDGE FUNDS doing the selling.

      I have never claimed that big specs do not attempt to move prices in their favor when they can. To the contrary, I have argued that is exactly what they do when they are given an opportunity.

      That however is a FAR, FAR CRY and something completely different than the gold price suppression scheme proponents who like Mr. Roberts claim that these movements by large speculative forces are PROOF that gold is being manipulated lower by agents acting on behalf of the Fed.

      Lastly, Matthew, any trader who has had any experience of note in the futures market for a living will simply laugh at Mr. Robert's claims but for the sake of clarifying my remarks, I wanted to take a bit more of my precious time to deal with this.

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  15. Couldn't global investors be trying to escape their on rapidly debasing currency? Interest at 2 or 3 percent is not exactly an investors dream.

  16. Veteran gold bugs are so swamped in a toxic stew of denial and confirmation bias that there's no saving them. But if a few newbs can be steered away from the dark side, then it's still worth the effort.

    Keep on keeping on, Dan.

  17. Hi Dan, the KWN gold pumpers and other's aside your staunch assertion that the banks are not involved in any kind of manipulation of the metal's price is interesting in spite of the fact that Barclay's took responsibility and was fined for manipulation by one of it's trader's; "Barclays Plc has been fined 26 million pounds ($43.8 million) for failures in internal controls that allowed a trader to manipulate the setting of gold prices" Earlier in the year and today we learn that a second bank is now about to be fined for the same thing. "Another "Conspiracy Theory" Bites The Dust: UBS Settles Over Gold Rigging, Many More Banks To Follow" I would not dispute in any way that this current move down has been the result of Speculative selling as well as covering of longs, while the banks buy up every contract sold. The COT structure bears it out as Specs now hold record short positions in Silver. But to continually suggest that the banks have in no way manipulated or otherwise had an influence in the price of gold whether up or down is simply disingenuous on your part as well given the evidence to the contrary. I find your attitude toward the gold bug community and the pumpers really took a sour turn for the worse after your departure from the KWN Weekly Metals Wrap, which I always looked forward to. Since then I find that your comments and stabs at these sources has grown substantially in recent months and just wish you would do an analysis of the market without the vitriol that is so apparent in your comments. As one who claims to represent Christ you seem to missing this; "7 “Do not judge others, and you will not be judged. 2 For you will be treated as you treat others. The standard you use in judging is the standard by which you will be judged.
    3 “And why worry about a speck in your friend’s eye when you have a log in your own?"
    Now don't misunderstand me as I think it is important to speak out against the gold bull pumpers and shyster's as you do and you have really become a lone wolf in the wilderness in this regard. But it is the tone that is apparent in your comments that almost seems to have a sense of arrogance about much like the side you're so critical of. At the very least the tone is not one that represents the Jesus I know and love in my Bible.

    1. Robert Voight;

      My goodness, when does this end? Now I am accused of sinning against Christ because of daring to speak the truth. What is wrong with you?

      As far as banks not being involved in the gold price suppression scheme - have you even taken the time to read anything that I have written over the past few years.

      Who ever denied that big speculative forces attempt to move prices in their favor? Whether it is hedge funds doing it or some bank engaging in unethical activities at the London FX or the rigging of Libor or whatever? Since when have I denied that big speculative forces attempt to move prices in their favor when they can. Heck, any trader that is any good will push their advantage when they can.

      That is a FAR, FAR CRY from saying that the bank in question or the hedge fund in question is acting as an agent of the Fed and is involved in a deliberate attempt to suppress the price of gold in order to discredit the metal and remove it as a competitor to the US Dollar.

      Before you come on here and lecture me to tone, please get your facts straight.

      You know yesterday I had a poster accusing me of being unable to enter the kingdom of heaven because of my profession. Today you accuse me of being a hypocrite because I expose error and falsehood.

      Guess what - you are I serve different Jesus's. I trust you are as obedient to yours as I try to be towards mine. Good riddance.

    2. Read the FT report on UBS's Precious Metals desk, as reported on Zerohedge. Read it. It has NOTHING to do with systematic manipulation of the Gold market - least of all by the Fed - and UBS has never been a participant in the daily London Gold Fixing

    3. Like I said earlier...there's people who will read your logical views and have a different takeaway or problem with them no matter what.

      Meanwhile...gold and silver open lower.

    4. LOL....This is so hilarious.! Proof that Dan is doing a good job. The goldtards never attack someone who is unknown or worthless.

    5. “And why worry about a speck in your friend’s eye when you have a log in your own?" . I think Dan has removed his log THEN he tried to enlighten others and remove the speck in others eyes as well.Thank Dan

  18. Dollar/Ruble at all-time highs. Starting a parabolic move here similar to 1998 Russian financial crisis?

    the above was part of the gold move friday.. the rest looked like war with ukraine and middle east heating up.

    russia and brazil are close to recession, that's BRIC that dr copper might be reacting to. china import/export numbers are out for tonite's reopen, not looking too good. china CPI/PPI due later tonite.

    tame futures re-open in the usa, except for NatGas another gapper. 7:07am in bejing now, cnbc world 'asia squawk box' quite good this time o day.


  19. This comment has been removed by the author.

  20. Dan, great writing as usual. Roberts is just a tired old fart who was once a low level Treasury clown; he writes books and still does not understand the mkts. Easy Al never understood the mkts either, but he knew how to pander to the ptb, nothing more, nothing less. Russell has seen better days, and one of the biggest donkeys is max keiser, along with the golden jackass. Never will you ever hear these fraudsters say they were wrong or that they do not know. Very crummy people who will all die at the ultimate bottom in pm's, which could be tomorrow, or, 15 years from now. They are just commods ladies, nothing more, nothing less. And please, do not give me a history lesson of the last 5k years, as I trade futures, not pasts. Thanks and play the Pack tonite and lay the chalk.

  21. Dan - thanks for calling Roberts out on the sloppy piece he wrote on KWN... Excellent post today and invaluable read! Its hard to believe this "US T official" still has a platform anywhere but it is a free country and everyone is entitled to their own opinion. I used to listen to Roberts but quickly realized he is "missing a screw". The post your wrote today is just more evidence of that.
    Good trading

  22. Some of the doomers and pumpers out in the blogosphere like PCR and friends at KWN often times employ a subtle tactic known as "Gaslighting".
    You see the tactic or mannerism all the time in the more vocal pundits out there who engage in misleading and deceptive information.
    "...Sometimes, a person can assert something with such an apparent intensity of conviction that the other person begins to doubt their own perspective. Other times, vigorous and unwavering denial coupled with a display of righteous indignation can accomplish the same task.
    "Bringing up historical facts that seem largely accurate but contain minute, hard-to-prove distortions and using them to “prove” the correctness of one’s position is another method.
    Gaslighting is particularly effective when coupled with other tactics such as shaming and guilting. Anything that aids in getting another person to doubt their judgment and back down will work.

    Gaslighting is just one of the many weapons in the arsenal of personalities hell-bent on having their way, even if it means doing so by subtle and covert means of conning others.

    One of the most important points I make in all my articles, books, and other writings about the narcissistic and most especially, the aggressive personalities, is that they will do whatever it takes to secure and maintain a position of advantage over others. And some of the most effective means at their disposal are tactics that conceal their malevolent intent while simultaneously prompting their “target” to accede to their desires.
    I outline the most common ones covertly aggressive folks use to manipulate others in my book In Sheep’s Clothing. But it would be virtually impossible to fully list all of the various tactics expert manipulators use.
    Deception is often the key ingredient in manipulation.
    Deception can be accomplished by outright denial, distortion of key aspects of events, and a variety of other methods, especially the more sophisticated lying techniques...(cont.)


  23. Dan and OB
    Thanks for exposing the wrong Analysis and factual errors it this piece. The number of parenthetical insertions is another indicator of poor logic.

  24. Mike

    I also posted that critique on another website, pretty much verbatim

    it received an abusive 27 line response including the statement

    "None of what you have stated as fact, to discredit Dr. Roberts, is what actually happened, no matter how strongly you assert it."

    That's it - blanket denial.

    His conclusion: "I don't need to answer all these stupid questions about shit that I don't have a clue about" and his comnent was then followed by another abusive rant claiming that when Roberts referred to "banks" he didn't mean "banks", and that was obvious to anyone reading the article

    some of these muppets should be included in the first year curriculum for psychology students, and as case studies for Elementary School kids to learn that beneath the aggressive facade, bullies are both cowardly and very, very afraid

  25. I have read the writings of PCR for years, he is good on politics but his anti American stance is becoming pro Russian . He gets interviewed on RT and is falling in with Max Keiser and the Zero Hedge clowns.

    PCR did once verge on lunatic 911 conspiracy and that is when I stopped to read him as frequently.

    He does a good job pointing out issues with the BLS statistics but bangs the same drum about offshoring of jobs and the coming collapse all the time etc. It seems to be a thing with those who are harbingers of doom.

    He does not seem to know much about the markets and their daily operation.

    I personally have watched the price of gold using COT data and Volume Profile charts - you can see some of this on http://atoast2trading.wordpress.com/2014/11/05/gold-es-dax/ - Simply speaking gold producers short big spikes, they made out like bandits with gold above 1800 and they spotted an opportunity to sell above 1300 this year.

    I think asian collatoral liquidation is also putting strain on the market.

  26. "After all, Mr. Roberts refers to the Comex as the scene of "illegal activity" but it is a demonstrably proven fact that the gold mining shares LEAD the price of bullion, whether it is up or down. "

    I've never seen this demonstrably proven fact. Is it on your blog?

  27. Check out this thread on the HUI/gold correlation...



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