“Woe to the land whose king is a child and whose leaders are already drunk in the morning. Happy the land whose king is a nobleman, and whose leaders work hard before they feast and drink, and then only to strengthen themselves for the tasks ahead”. (Eccl 10: 16-17)


"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


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Sunday, November 9, 2014

Another Eureka Moment for the Gold Bugs

The internet is breathlessly ablaze over a story detailing UBS and its plan to settle allegations over details concerning its precious metals trading. It seems like Christmas has come early in the world of gold conspiracy world.

Yet, this has an eerie quality about it once more. Why do I say that? Simple - because the entire claim of the Gold is Always Manipulated All The Time crowd ( GIAMATT) is exactly as articulated in the Paul Craig Roberts's article which I refuted in a previous post earlier in the day today. And what is that?

In his own words. Mr. Roberts claims that the big banks ( whom he refers to as 'agents of the Fed' ) are guilty of illegal activity to suppress the price of gold and discredit it. They do this by selling unlimited amounts of paper gold contracts at the Comex ( the scene of the crime according to him and those who view his pronouncements as gospel). The reason they do this is very clearly laid out -

“Eric, it’s clear, this is the Federal Reserve protecting the value of the dollar from quantitative easing and the massive increase in the supply of dollars and dollar-denominated debt. 

This is exactly the theme that the gold price suppression scheme advocates have been claiming for years now. Those of you who remember my writings from the earlier days when gold was actually in a bull market, know that I was once a proponent of this theory. At the time, the US Dollar was sinking into oblivion and was threatening a major collapse on the price charts. Gold is the Anti-Dollar so it made perfect sense to me to give support to this view. After all, the feds have stepped into the foreign exchange markets from time to time to address currency valuations as well as form a Treasury Exchange Stabilization Fund known more commonly as the Plunge Protection Team.

However, I parted ways with some of the my former 'friends' over this when the fundamentals behind gold's move higher began to deteriorate and the bull market ended and a new bear market began. There was no longer any reason whatsoever for the feds to try to suppress the rise in the price of gold ( something which they failed to do by the way when the price hit $1900 before finally topping out for good).

Here is a series of questions that none of the gold price suppression scheme advocates will deal with honestly? Why is the Dollar no longer falling against nearly every single currency in the world? Why is the price of nearly every single commodity falling? Why is the TIPs Spread falling? Why is the Velocity of Money falling? Why are the Central Banks desperately trying to fight off Deflationary pressures and longing for their target of 2% inflation and failing to meet it? Why can anyone expect gold to be moving higher in a deflationary environment in which the price of most commodities, especially energy prices, continue to fall?

Keep in mind that none other than Jim Sinclair had written quite elegantly many years earlier about what he correctly termed the FIVE PILLARS of a BULL MARKET in Gold.

Among those are two key pillars and I quote:
1.) RISING COMMODITY PRICES
2.) A FALLING US DOLLAR

Jim noted that these were present during the great bull market of the late 1970's. Guess what? they were also present during the bull phase of gold which lasted from 2001- 2012 ( it began faltering in 2011).

Ironically or perhaps "Conveniently" would be a better choice of words, both pillars have been conspicuously ABSENT since the Dollar began its strong bull market and the commodity sector began its powerful bear market. ( see my earlier post about the charts).

Yet, those who subscribe to the gold price suppression scheme along the lines as articulated by Paul Craig Roberts, assure us that in spite of the glaring absence of two of their five pillars, the feds are still having to attack the price of gold through their agents, certain banks which are not noted specifically in the Roberts article.

Does not the open-minded reader find this odd to say the least? And I have not even touched on the interest rate component of those Five Pillars.

In other words, the US Dollar has been embarking on a powerful bull market and has gone nearly vertical since July of this year and is currently trading near a FOUR YEAR HIGH and yet Mr. Robert assures at this "attack" on gold by these "agents of the Fed" is being done in order to "protect the value of the Dollar from QE".

Strange deduction from a set of stubborn facts is it not?

But allow me to get back to the key point I wish to make - the gold price suppression scheme proponents tell us that any "illegal" activity that occurs in the Comex gold market is big banks acting as agents of the Fed to discredit the metal and to protect the value of the Dollar.

Remember this story from May of this year dealing with a rogue trader from Barclay's. I well remember it and wrote extensively about it at that time. Please see my comments on this as they are just as apropos about today's UBS story as they were back then. I will stand by my view back then just as strongly as I will stand by my view today.

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2014/05/ukraine-election-moves-to-forefront.html

The point is very simple - that large speculative forces, in my mind, mainly hedge funds, can move markets or act to influence them is nothing new in our financial markets. Sadly for those of us who prefer open and honest markets, it has been going on for years and will continue into the foreseeable future. However, to jump from that fact, that there is corruption in our financial markets, to the strained conclusion that this is evidence that the big banks are working as agents of the Fed to suppress the price of gold, is an insult to those whose minds can properly attribute cause and effect. It is especially insulting when the Dollar is the strongest currency currently in the world and the price of commodities is falling out of bed, with inflation fears sinking along with it.

If gold were in a bull market, if the Dollar was in a bear market and threatening collapse, if the commodity indices were all sharply rising with hot money flows swamping hard assets as they did a few years ago, if the mining shares were soaring higher, if the Velocity of Money was suggesting serious and possibly out-of-control inflationary forces were present, if REAL interest rates were negative, then perhaps, we could give more credence to the idea that among some of their strategies to deal with those things, an effort to slow down any sharp surge in the price of gold would carry credence with me as it once did some many years ago. Until then, the UBS story just confirms the same thing that most of us who have to make a living in these financial markets know all too well - namely, that the little guy, who is honest and plays by the rules, end up oftentimes donating to the big guys unless he or she is very nimble and can learn to stay clear of the sharks.



60 comments:

  1. Well said TD.

    Looks like gold might slide back towards $1150 before it breaks $1200. Just a guess.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Haze - did you happen to see that our old friend Craig finally went off the deep end and has shut down all public commenting on his site, and even locked down all existing forum topics? It seemed likely from his explanation that he didn't like having active topics with DPH as the original author. I would be flattered if I were you.

      If another recession/PM bull market happened, it could have actually saved his site. But now it's just a basket of shitty articles, and a community locked behind a paywall. Stick a fork in TFMR, his subscriber list has seen it's peak, and that site is now the walking dead.

      Delete
    2. I left an initial comment on TD's Copper Anomaly thread yesterday.

      I see the site deleted my old SpeakEasy thread a couple weeks ago. With almost 2 million views it was akin to a long overdue mercy killing.

      What the move shows is that 2 remaining popular threads there were forced to start over when 2 other threads were left intact with their full history.
      It seems pretty clear they tried to shed a large majority portion of the popular nutter population away from the site by making it more difficult on them by not accomodating their old forums like they did the others. It would've been easy to do so....but they didn't.

      The reformat doesn't seem real inspired or thought out and is basically an admission the site doesn't like the crowd it seems to appeal to.

      Seems problematic when your message or marketing is attracting undesirable responses that embarass you or jeopardize your business and you react to shield visitors from....well, other older guests.

      Has the messenger there ever considered it's the messages and his delivery that are what attract the type of response he no longer desires?
      That's what I call a real conumdrum...one not easily solved at this point.

      Delete
    3. I do have to sympathize with the impulse to dissociate with the members posting the really insane chemtrails/conspiracy/miracle cure nonsense. What mystifies me is that I'm sure he'll be bringing Jim Willie back in frequently, and that dude spouts crap like that all the time.

      Here's what he should have learned: when you hawk conspiracy theories, you are going to get conspiracy theorists. A minority of them will be otherwise rational, clear thinking people, but most of them are going to have more than a few screws loose. That's reality, and he thinks he's found a way around it. In a way, he has - the way out is for his site to wither and die.

      Delete
    4. OK - I just read your original comment yesterday, which made mine pretty redundant. Good synopsis.

      Delete
    5. DPH,

      I'm imagining another one of those grueling consolidation range trades for several weeks, this time between $1145 and $1198, annoying the heck out of both sides but finally ending in yet another floor-puncturing disaster for the 'tards lol.

      Delete
  2. Dan, maybe the dollar/gold hasn't reached their targets yet. Who knows?

    I personally think we are only scraping the surface of what is actually happening and it will be a long time before anyone truly knows the extent to which markets are managed and indeed what markets are managed. Maybe they want gold as low as possible because they know another dose of QE is on the way? Maybe they are worried about the Swiss gold initiative? Maybe it's just going down because of a deflationary backdrop and certain traders are profiting from this illegally and there is no conspiracy?

    As long as leveraged paper trading is possible then the potential for manipulation in any market is there if one has deep enough pockets. Whether state sponsored of hedge funds/banks it individuals operating autonomously.

    For me there are far too many smoking guns. As I've always said I think the gold bugs don't themselves any favours as they don't address all the points you make for example but that doesn't mean they are completely wrong either.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. LOL, Yikes, where do these guys come from?

      Delete
    2. Dominic, I am confused by your questions

      a. If "they" have a target, why did they allow Gold to rally back upwards on Friday?

      b. In fact, why did they ever allow it to get to $1900 in the first place if they clearly wanted it around $1100?

      c. And why did it take then 4 tries to get it down below $1180?

      d. And why take so long about it? Gold has been going steadily downwards for 18 months now - why did they have to wait until after the end of QE?

      One thing is surely clear - even IF, for whatever reason, the Fed is manipulating Gold downwards, then they are clearly not the only game in town, and they clearly are not so omnipotent as to have it all their own way. We know about the Hunt Brothers and more recently about the calls for a mining cartel from the CEO of First Majestic: how are we to refer to them? As The Powers That Only Might Be (TPTOMB) or The Powers That Might Not Be (But We Are Not Quite Sure About Yet) (TPTMNBBWANQSAY) - or is manipulating price upwards perhaps not manipulation af all?

      Delete
  3. And does anyone on here honestly believe that crude oil dropping over 25% in a few months is purely down to normal market forces?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dominic;'

      Yes I do.. have you ever heard of the term "fracking"?
      The US is currently swimming in crude oil.

      Delete
    2. Water is more precious than oil.
      It takes a whole lot of water in the fracking process.
      Ask California how they are holding up.

      Delete
    3. Right but fracking is nothing new.

      Seems more like the Saudi's want a much lower price. No doubt fracking contributes but look at what's happening to the Russian Ruble? This is killing Russia's balance of trade. Looks more like a financial war being played out here against Russia. Much easier than a real war.

      Look I have little doubt oil was going to fall but I've also no doubt there's more to this than falling global demand and the shale gas revolution. If I'm wrong then it's just a massive coincidence this has happened right after Russia's elections in the Crimea? Come on Dan surely you can see an incentive to force oil prices as low as possible!

      It'll be a nice boost to the US economy too as long as they don't go too low and put the shale revolution under pressure.

      Delete
    4. Totally agree. USA is actually exporting a bit of condensate and companies are building here to use cheap natural gas and ethane.
      I believe imports are down too partly because of the slow economy.

      Delete
    5. To Dan's point, The US is now 2nd in the world in exporting oil. AND It is projected that by the end of 2016, the US will likely overtake Saudi Arabia as the world's leading exporter of crude oil. This all became possible just this year when laws were modified to lift the ban on US oil exports - eliminating a regulation that had been in place since the 1970s.

      And do not discount what is going on in Mexico too! The flood of North American crude oil is set to become a deluge as Mexico dismantled a 75-year-old barrier to foreign investment in its oil fields. Mexico made significant changes earlier this year seeking an end to the state monopoly over one of the biggest crude resources in the Western Hemisphere. Some say that Mexico has the potential to also become as big as Saudi Arabia.

      Everyone is so focused on the demand side of this equation – with endless prognostications about economic recessions/depressions. But, to me the real story is on the supply side, as OPEC is no longer the over-arching force it used to be. We are witnessing an energy revolution – one that most seem completely oblivious to.

      Delete
    6. I was reading somewhere that the sand or silica they use in the fracking process is in great demand and the prices have gone skyhigh.
      And so have the profits in the companies that mine or supply the silica. Might be worth looking more into it.

      Delete
    7. The oil situation is super bullish for stocks. It's great for profit margins as costs fall. Earnings growth will continue to be strong. Consumers also are getting extra pocket cash with every fill up. It's like a gigantic tax cut. And they will spend it. Add in a skittish labor force with zero upward pressure on wages (also fantastic for corporate profits, btw), and the Fed is free to do anything they want with no fear of inflation. They'll continue to be easy, just begging for some inflation somewhere, anywhere. Interest rates won't be rising much or at all any time soon. Stocks are in an amazing sweet spot right now. The oil price is the rocket fuel for the next leg higher.

      And the need for the "safe haven" of gold? Not much. Not for a long time. And the haters and crash callers and doomsday prophets will continue to fight reality all the way. Suicidal.

      Don't fight the tape.

      Delete
    8. @ Eric O --- you are exactly right!

      Having America enter the stage as a big-time energy superpower is absolutely HUGE! The ability of the United States to add “energy superpower” to its long list of superlatives — agricultural superpower, technology superpower, demographic superpower, entrepreneurial innovation superpower etc — has a huge amount of embedded economic value.

      Some have estimated that the net value of the oil and natural gas under US soil could be as high as $500 trillion! What all of these doom & gloom pessimists have consistently underestimated, or overlooked completely, is the net value of American wealth as juxtaposed against American debt… and in respect to physical and intellectual assets, not to mention agricultural and energy assets, the United States is the richest country in the history of the world, perhaps by a factor of ten. The Federal Reserve may be run by bumblers and Washington populated by fools, but the core strength of the US economic position is so strong, not even the bumblers and the fools could truly dent it. Perhaps this is why the dollar is set for perhaps a historic bull run.

      The doom & gloom “money printing” hyper-inflation, economic depression obsessed goldbugs are about to be historically WRONG!

      Delete
    9. They've already been historically wrong, and it's about to get worse.

      Delete
    10. Mexico oil production is dropping off , are they going to frack with what water?

      Delete
  4. The gold market as it exists today consists of a mix of the futures gold market, the gold leasing market, the ETF's and other derivatives, the unallocated (pooled) gold, and allocated segregated physical gold. Dan, the points you make are very well thought out and prescient. But they rest on the required foundation and functioning of the gold market continuing to exist as it does today in it's present form.

    ReplyDelete
  5. TEOTGTE epitaph

    at long last TFMR has died.
    no surprise that it was denied
    to the end, Maguire, Willy, even Santa lied.
    as to the new and latest great improvement
    perhaps Turd's finest, yet his last bowel movement.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That actually flows nicely. -_-

      My Gaslighting comment on the last thread ring any bells? }:^)

      Delete
    2. It is magnificent to witness, isn't it?

      Delete
  6. I cant come up with any reason why the Fed would need to manipulate the price of gold. They are free to print as many dollars as they wish and have been doing so for the last 14 years. It doesn't matter whether gold is $1000 or $1900 they can still print.

    However gold is clearly manipulated from time to time. It just seems to me that as long as position limits are not enforced the bullion banks can move price pretty much where they want and fleece the trend funds.

    The manipulation in the gold market is just cash machine for the banks not a tool for the Fed.

    ReplyDelete
  7. What is interesting Dan is, is gold only viewed as a commodity now in this new era/generation, or is gold still viewed as a currency still like it has been throughout history?

    As if gold is only viewed as a commodity now, then it should be going down in price with the rest of the commodities in a deflationary environment.

    However if gold is still viewed as a currency that "no other fiat currency including the dollar can match" ( as Greenspan said recently ) then it should be going up in price as central banks show no ability to stop printing money and debasing their currencies with the other various methods they use.

    And every Dollar/Yen/Euro that is printed or LTROed is pure inflation of that currency and that devalues that currency against gold right?

    Also the only interesting point that Robert's does make is that he says the game is to make gold look like a bad investment so that investors stay in the dollar or Yen regardless of how much they inflate their currencies with money printing so their money printing policies are not made to look bad.

    Case and point the Yen the other day, trillions more in money printing of Yen announced and gold goes down against it.

    If the gold is viewed as a commodity only then that makes sense as it should go down against the Yen if they are fighting deflation.

    Money printing does not matter if gold is just a commodity now is my point.

    A country can inflate their currency as much as they like with no consequences as gold is a commodity, not a currency.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Again, I ask you, who is printing excessive amounts of money as if they were the Wiemar republic!?

      Delete
    2. Guess you were away or something Eric as you must have missed the recent news that Japan's central bank announced more QE again and is even going to buy foreign stocks with that QE printed money.

      It was front page news, I am surprised you missed it?

      Delete
    3. Again, you have got to stop getting all your news from ZH. Japan increased its QE asset purchases ---- and set forth a plan to shake up the $1.2 trillion investment portfolio for the Government Pension Investment Fund. It said it would raise the share of its assets in Japanese and foreign stocks by more than 10 percentage points each, in a bid to improve returns for Japan’s rapidly growing population of retirees.

      OK, so explain to me how this is money printing, and how this will drastically increase the supply of money in circulation and how we'll have the second coming of the Wiemar republic.

      I see this potentially bringing about yet more bubbles and deflation. But not a new Wiemar republic.

      Delete
    4. Balance sheet expansion is money printing. It shows up as devaluation and price inflation when it floods the forex market in the form of a bond bear market.

      But I know, bond prices never fall.

      Delete
    5. My main point Eric was the bank of Japan is inflating their currency and gold is acting like a commodity against it not a currency.

      The bank of Japan is buying those bonds from the pension funds and the fresh cash created is being used to buy foreign stocks in their stock markets.

      Delete
  8. What is interesting Dan is, is gold only viewed as a commodity now in this new era/generation, or is gold still viewed as a currency like it has been throughout history?

    As if gold is only viewed as a commodity now, then it should be going down in price with the rest of the commodities in a deflationary environment.

    However if gold is still viewed as a currency then it should be going up in price as central banks show no ability to stop printing money and inflating their currencies away for the last 6 years.

    And every Dollar/Yen/Euro that is printed or LTROed is pure inflation of that currency and that devalues that currency against gold right?

    Also the only interesting point that Robert's does make is that he says the game is to make gold look like a bad investment so that investors stay in the dollar or Yen regardless of how much central banks inflate their currencies away with money printing. The idea being so central bank polices don't look bad against gold when inflating that currency.

    Case and point the Yen the other day, trillions more in money printing of Yen announced and gold goes down against it.

    If the gold is viewed as a commodity only then that makes sense as it should go down against the Yen if they are fighting deflation.

    Money printing does not matter if gold is just a commodity now is my point.

    A country can inflate their currency as much as they like with no consequences as gold is a commodity, not a currency.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Last year about this time the whole JPM/long gold meme was seen as a bullish indicator (of course) by some cheerleaders that gold would gain significant traction in 2014.

    How thing's have changed...

    "Gold Bulls Accelerate Retreat to This Year’s Fastest Pace"

    By Luzi Ann Javier and Joe Deaux
    November 09, 2014 10:06 PM EST

    Hedge funds made their biggest cut of the year in bullish gold wagers as prices tumbled to the lowest since 2010.

    The net-long position in New York futures and options contracted 36 percent as long holdings fell the most in almost two years, U.S. government data show.
    Investors sold 14.4 metric tons of bullion held through exchange-traded products last week, trimming assets to the least since August 2009.

    Gold dropped 15 percent from this year’s high in March as signs of a stronger U.S. economy drove the dollar to a five-year high and fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve is moving closer to raising interest rates.
    Lower oil costs are helping to keep inflation in check and U.S. equities touched records.

    “There’s just not one typical investment idea that’s supportive to gold right now,” George Zivic, a New York-based portfolio manager at OppenheimerFunds Inc., which oversees $245 billion, said by phone Nov. 5. “With the potential of rates increasing, dollar appreciation, it becomes synthetically expensive to hold gold as some sort of a portfolio hedge. And then you have the reality of no real concerns of inflation.” (cont.)

    http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-09/gold-bulls-accelerate-retreat-to-this-year-s-fastest-pace.html

    ReplyDelete
  10. Dan

    a quick addendum / correction, if I may. In his article, Craig Roberts does go some way towards identifying - or at least narrowing the list of - the banks he alleges are acting as the Feds "agents" in suppressing the price of Gold:

    "So the Fed, trying to save four big banks, it increased its balance sheet $4 trillion..... Apparently these (agent) banks can print gold futures contracts in unlimited amounts"
    [verbatim]

    My assumption is that in Craig Roberts' mind JP Morgan and HSBC are on that list of 4

    ReplyDelete
  11. Take a look at the very last section of Keiths most recent report

    http://monetary-metals.com/monetary-metals-supply-and-demand-report-9-nov-2014/

    absolutely fascinating analysis

    ReplyDelete
  12. Whatever gold is at the moment (industrial metal or a hedge) it is not in demand. Interesting that a major expense in mining is fuels and power generation. With oil falling so should mining expense.

    The latest in fracking is a move to use a gas, nitrogen would be one example, to freeze and fracture the hydrocarbon layers. Not a totally new process but one being perfected. Requires no water esp. when you want to avoid swelling in clay soils. Not sure how they keep the fractures open like injecting sand into them but the process is coming along well, so to speak.

    The US technically bans crude exports but only allows distillates as done in Texas refining Venezuelan heavy crude and sending byproducts back. This is slowly changing by a new definition of oil so some can be exported. Gluts will do that, change markets.

    Mexico, being the socialist state it is, has no companies or brain trusts to perform necessary secondary release methods to further extract oil from their existing fields. 80% of oil gets left behind with a typical oil rig operation. Hence a modification of the country's constitution to allow foreign investors to profit from oil extraction there. It's the only way to attract the needed technology. End up with some hicks from Texas or California running the show and getting rich while doing it.

    In the meantime, Armstrong or his computer is looking for the US bond bubble to burst sending money flows to double US equities including tangibles before the year 2020 which seems like a short time span, all things considered. Somewhere in there, inflation will begin as government tries to stem the damage by offering competing higher rates which will add to the woes of debt.
    http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/11/09/dow-confusion/

    ReplyDelete
  13. Dan, you are famous! :-)

    http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/ubs-to-settle-goldsilver-manipulation-activities/

    ReplyDelete
  14. The pain continues in the gold miners. New Gold bought out Bayfield Ventures today, for stock valued at a 50% premium to Friday's close. Good news right? Not for the long suffering bugs, content in the knowledge that their lottery tickets will someday pay off. Bayfield used to be over a buck. It spent about a year over 50 cents. And it was just taken out for 21 cents. This has been the pattern in the miners for 3 years, and looks to continue as far as the eye can see. Junior miners are NOT a long term investment.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Dan, thank you for your interesting article. Construing your English, you seem to be saying that you once thought that the Fed manipulated the gold market through the banks, because it was necessary to defend the dollar, but now it is no longer necessary and there are many other cogent reasons to force gold down. What is not clear is whether you believe the Fed would still manipulate the market if it became necessary again ( possibly upwards if they thought the dollar was getting too strong). I think this is the case because of recent comments you made to that effect.

    If this is the case then Roberts' statements are not so egregious. After all, you only disagree on one point: that the markets are being manipulated NOW. That these actions are completely illegal is evident, whether done before or now, and this is one of his salient points.

    As for the banks manipulating markets for their own gain, in view of their past record in manipulating other markets, this would be easy to understand, especially as they are allowed to do it with relative impunity with only token slap on the wrist fines, and never with personal accountability by senior executives. Why wouldn't they do it if it is profitable, whether the manipulation is up or down?

    Supposing the banks manipulated the market with the blessing of the Fed in 2013, causing the gold market to crash in one mass concerted wave of selling, they would thereby create a strongly negative feeling towards gold, which then generated its own momentum. Then it would also be no longer necessary to manipulate gold. I know you don't agree with this because you made a reply to me to that effect.

    To summarize, you seem to be saying, that yes, you do agree with Roberts that the gold market is manipulated, but is not being manipulated at the present time, which puts the two of you not so far apart. Is that correct?


    ReplyDelete
  16. 70 years ago, George Douglass Taylor who wrote his masterpiece The TayLor Trading Technique mentioned about manipulation of market makers and showed how to follow MM footprints in order to get profit in a pattern of 3 days up and 2 days down. So I love the manipulated market, the more it manipulated the more I get profit. All manipulators are humans and humans have got patterns. So you need to pay attention and spot their moves then go with them. It better than to argue the gold market is manipulated or not. It waste of time. At the end you got exhausted and it makes you hesitated when trading. There is the same pattern when gold at peaks then you can short it nicely. Easily recognizable. It is Monday, it is 8 days after a full moon while gold is running up for awhile then gold is falling like a rock

    ReplyDelete
  17. Yes, I agree with you Linh, then Manipulation becomes a fundamental in any investment strategy. You could say, the fundamental of the fundamentals. So, one invests against gold, or with the S&P with its Yellen Put or guaranteed jawboning.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks.My jaws drop but in a happy way lol. Like today, it is Monday again, and after full moon and gold going up for a while

      Delete
  18. EURUSD just starting to drop a bit and head towards 1.23 again.
    1.24 has provided some resistance lately.

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  19. Another horrific, catastrophic collapse in the mining shares today, just as KWN predicted.

    New world record low in GDX/GLD ratio on the way.

    ReplyDelete
  20. say hey to the inside day in XAU HUI GC SI...gold stock bulls shouldn't give up too quickly, as it could break north tomorrow.
    looks like gap ups were ready to be hit on tax loss selling, which will be a problem all the way since as Dan said HUI was into 2008 prices.

    Putin: Ruble Is The Victim Of ‘Speculative Attacks,’ Policy Moves Will ‘Punish Speculators’

    livestock and ags seem to be squeezing shorts ahead of usda wasde which is at 11amCT.

    Intensive ag ops will be only way to feed future pop. of 9 billion; many in new middle class will want meat protein.

    ES new all time high. TF was leading early, gettn out of it's rut.

    cheers!

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  21. New world record highs in both the Dow and Transports.

    Richard Russell "The Godfather" must be gurgling....

    ReplyDelete
  22. Ags still green 5 mins after usda hits.

    USDA cuts corn yield to 173.4 bushels per acre; 174.2 last month .

    The soybean yield is projected at a record 47.5 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushels

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  23. Hard red winter stocks rise 20 mln to 212 mln; HRS drop 30 mln to 217 mln bu; SRW unchanged at 162 mln bu

    doubt corn can get thru 381 double top on this report. wheat technicals still bearish. soybeans selling on the 450 14/15 ending stocks!

    gold bears trumpeting how the 6/28/13 high volume down week stopped gold that low was 1179.40.. Dan showed those 4 lows on his charts as resistance as well.

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  24. Then you will recognize the pattern of SP500. Monday and Thursday are the turns. If Monday bullish, it likely be bullish for the whole week. However Sp must be down to march with bond. Seasonally, Sp should correct a bit in order to rally EOY. So it is the last week for SP up.Meanwhile, EUR and NZD will likely go into a bullish phase from this Wednesday. For 10 years, if you long EUR/USD and NZD/USD from Nov 12 to Jan 12 you get significant returns. Why complain about manipulation ? I do not.I worry about the patterns might not work anymore and I must find hard new pattern emerged

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  25. Dear Dan,

    You are correct. Fed is unable to achieve inflation and velocity. It is unable to restart borrowing and lending to the masses.

    Despite trillions and trillions of dollars it printed since Lehman it Has failed miserably.

    The federal reserve and the world's central bank has failed. So has the bank of Japan. Deflatio is just terminal and cannot be cured like cancer or aids.

    It's just that challenging central banks need time to organise a backup system before the U.S. Empire and it Dollar are dethroned.

    Birth Pangs of a Gold Standard are painful.

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  26. I think this week forex , gold and crude markets to be sideway. Better off

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  27. Here's some shameless, misleading huckstering from Bill Holter.

    No silver available to buyers at $15???

    http://blog.milesfranklin.com/15-silver-you-cant-have-any

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  28. Hi Dan, I have been reading your posts ever since you started to post over at jsmineset. You have written many times about the Yen carry trade and you are my source of understanding it. So if I have understood you correctly deep pocket speculators can borrow Yen at very low interest rates then go out sell those Yen for other currency investment providing better yields. This all works as long as the Yen is either falling or maintaining its value against the other currency being used to gain better yield. If the Yen rises then those carry trades must be unwound. Could one make the comparison to the Yen carry in relation to the gold market. That is as long as gold is falling in price or going sideways this whole central bank leasing works and provides the incentive to keep gold in a bear market. This is a win win for the fed as it supports the dollar. So my question is this a correct assumption?

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  29. Everyone is looking at the USD today rather than looking at the yen.
    The yen will bring down the house of cards.

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    Replies
    1. I agree on your Yen comment.
      There's so much of it out there that a collapse of it, and the Japanese economy, would effect everyone else greatly.

      If Japan is allowed to have a GDP to debt ratio of over 200% then just imagine how high the US or other countries might be able to get away with.
      The Fed realizes this of course and probably (imho) has helped backstop the BOJ on whatever way necessary.

      Delete
  30. Here's a crackpot over at Silver Doctors using biblical analogies for predicting when gold/silver will have their day of reckoning.

    Who would affiliate themselves with a site that espouses such mindless drivel? It's blatant B.S.


    http://www.silverdoctors.com/marshall-swing-gold-silvers-day-of-reckoning-to-begin-92315/

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  31. Guys still sure about shorting this sector? Boy oh boy, when these miners wanna move...look out. And this is just nervous nelly algos unwinding a position. Wait until the world's managed funds, the trillions upon trillions, realizes "You know, maybe we should allocate a smidgen towards the gold sector."

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  32. I like to check out Kinross once in awhile since it's such a pig. It might give a clue as to when the shorts give up. Since the 5th of November when it bottomed at 2.00, it's gone up by 25% on impressive volume.

    ReplyDelete

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